john07
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BMG
Dec 20, 2018 19:03:17 GMT
Post by john07 on Dec 20, 2018 19:03:17 GMT
EU nationals as well i imagine Most EU nationals *are* foreigners, and 66 million EU nationals are (currently) not foreigners by being British. There are a fair number of non-British EU nationals who are eligible to vote. Irish, Cypriots, etc. ?
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 14,637
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Post by john07 on Dec 18, 2018 18:24:58 GMT
Have there been any developments on the situation in NC 09?
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john07
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Post by john07 on Dec 14, 2018 23:26:27 GMT
Joe Biden. Bernie Sanders. Maybe John Kerry. Possibly Hillary Clinton 2020. (And then no doubt Hillary Clinton 2024. And even "Hillary Clinton 2028 - Gimme, gimme, gimme a turn.") The Democrats are so looking to the future they must be very glad that term limits at least mean their best known governor will no longer be Jerry Brown. The last 2 are utter rubbish. The Hillary Clinton advisor was mocked when this was published for being out of the loop for years and just milking it for the publicity. Generally speaking, if someone is a has been who is barely relevant then they probably are not running. So next time someone asks whether Jimmy Carter is running, presume not 😁 At this rate, Gary Hart will be back in the running soon!
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john07
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Post by john07 on Dec 9, 2018 2:27:59 GMT
Interestingly Amess is one of those MPs with a negative personal vote, as against the former MP for Southend East (Teddy Taylor) who had an unusually large positive personal vote. (For evidence there was a 5% swing to Labour in 2005 when he retired, against the national pro-Labour swing. By all demographics a generic Conservative candidate would have lost in 1997, as they did in similar constituencies elsewhere). Amess on the other hand is generally despised. Southend West is however very Conservative, and a negative personal vote makes little difference. It's difficult to deselect MPs of whatever party. But expect a jump in the Conservative majority when Amess retires. I'd be interested to hear which MPs you think have the largest negative personal vote? Why is Amess so unpopular – just because he's a carpetbagger? Remember Iain Sproat? He jumped ship in 1983 from Aberdeen South, after 13 years, to go for a 'more winnable' seat: Roxburgh and Berwickshire. He lost to Archie Kirkwood. Meanwhile Gerry Malone held Aberdeen South for the Conservatives! I agree about Teddy Taylor. He held Glasgow Cathcart against all the odds from 1964 to 1979.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Dec 4, 2018 9:51:26 GMT
As did the former Metropolitan County Councils in England, if I recall correctly. The GLC had 'electoral areas' (which were at first the same as boroughs, then the same as Parliamentary constituencies). In Greater Manchester, the Divisions were generally based on pairing up Wards although some Wards stood along as Divisions. Wigan, has one three member division based on the Parliamentary Constituency. The latter was bad news for the Conservatives who might have been in with a shout for one seat had it been split into three Divisions. In Coventry, we had three member Divisions based on the (then) four Parliamentary Constituencies.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 14,637
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Post by john07 on Dec 4, 2018 9:44:14 GMT
As far as I know, there isn't any literature on how candidates name length affects the vote. There are studies that suggest that a candidates surname affects voter choice - people with alphabetical names go at the top of the ballot and get more votes. That reminds me of my time at the University of Manchester. All student union elections had the candidates in alphabetical order. Or the did until the Internal Vice President (who was responsible for all elections) discovered a forgotten rule that in alternate elections the order would be flipped to reverse alphabetical. His name was Dave Watson!
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john07
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Post by john07 on Dec 4, 2018 9:18:56 GMT
I think that the Scottish regional councils used to have divisions? As did the former Metropolitan County Councils in England, if I recall correctly.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Nov 30, 2018 23:05:51 GMT
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john07
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Post by john07 on Nov 30, 2018 22:31:58 GMT
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john07
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Post by john07 on Nov 30, 2018 3:23:26 GMT
Some of the general election day voting looks a tad dodgy as well... Indeed!
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john07
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Post by john07 on Nov 27, 2018 13:12:11 GMT
Given that Festus's sentencing was delayed until after the trial - does he now have to wait until the re-trial to find out the sentence, or will he be sentenced in the interim? Is that Uncle Festus?
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john07
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Post by john07 on Nov 26, 2018 13:18:36 GMT
Are we missing the Northampton by election on 29th November? And should Allendale be Allerdale?
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john07
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Post by john07 on Nov 20, 2018 12:45:26 GMT
Judging by comments on the internet, the american public has no idea and think these counts are the evil democrats stealing elections. You spelled "some particularly delusional Trump partisans" wrong. I think that the 'delusional partisans' predated Trump by many years. It was a constant theme in the 2000 Election recount for Florida, that votes were 'being invented' and not just counted.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Nov 20, 2018 1:28:51 GMT
She's up by 400-odd, and there are over 30,000 provisional balls to count. Way to go yet. Republicans now ahead in UT-04 and look like any remaining votes will just stretch their lead. Indeed:
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john07
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Post by john07 on Nov 19, 2018 0:02:32 GMT
So, if Ohio is no longer the bellweather state... who is? Maine obviously! As goes Maine so goes ...,.....,.. Vermont!
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john07
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Post by john07 on Nov 17, 2018 23:46:55 GMT
The problem is that the rust belt is progressively moving away from the Democrats. I suspect that Indiana is almost gone now. How long before the likes of Ohio follow? I think the Democrats have to decide how seriously they want the white house. If they are happy to sit out for another 6 years and build their vote in Arizona, Georgia and Texas then they might get 2 terms in 2024. But if they want to win in 2020 even if it doesn't guarentee a second term they need to look at winning back states Trump won from the Democrats in 2016 That’s pretty well what I would advocate. Go for the rust belt (and Florida) now but play the long game by having a serious try for Texas Georgia and North Carolina.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Nov 17, 2018 23:31:34 GMT
The Democrats face a choice for 2020. Do they go for the rust belt and try and reclaim the likes of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio etc or go for the South and South West? In the long-term the latter strategy is the best. Win Arizona, consolidate Nevada and Colorado and maybe even take Texas. Then there is Florida, North Carolina, not to mention Georgia. The rust belt strategy offers less in terms of progress but may be the best for 2020. Texas looks more likely for the Democrats in 2024 than 2020. The 2018 results in the rust belt look good for the Democrats. Either way, the Democrats need a fresh face, maybe someone like Beto O’Rourke? the rust belt strategy is the only way theyll win I think. There might be some upsets in the south like Arizona but without Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, etc. They should pack up now The problem is that the rust belt is progressively moving away from the Democrats. I suspect that Indiana is almost gone now. How long before the likes of Ohio follow?
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john07
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Post by john07 on Nov 17, 2018 23:00:05 GMT
The Democrats face a choice for 2020. Do they go for the rust belt and try and reclaim the likes of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio etc or go for the South and South West?
In the long-term the latter strategy is the best. Win Arizona, consolidate Nevada and Colorado and maybe even take Texas. Then there is Florida, North Carolina, not to mention Georgia.
The rust belt strategy offers less in terms of progress but may be the best for 2020. Texas looks more likely for the Democrats in 2024 than 2020. The 2018 results in the rust belt look good for the Democrats.
Either way, the Democrats need a fresh face, maybe someone like Beto O’Rourke?
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john07
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Post by john07 on Nov 16, 2018 1:40:40 GMT
He featured a lot in the new Michael Moore film: Fahrenheit 11/9. He came across as someone who might go down well for the Democrats with white working class voters in the Rust Belt. He is pro-coal and pro-gun. He claims to have never voted for a Democratic presidential candidate. And dodges the abortion question... He hardly dodges the question. He claims to be pro-life by choice but would support a pro-choice agenda because of the impact on the poor of blocking access to abortion. He supported Bernie in the Democratic Primary.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Nov 16, 2018 1:20:32 GMT
He featured a lot in the new Michael Moore film: Fahrenheit 11/9. He came across as someone who might go down well for the Democrats with white working class voters in the Rust Belt. He is pro-coal and pro-gun. He claims to have never voted for a Democratic presidential candidate.
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