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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 20, 2023 23:08:11 GMT
As a note, the Lib Dem standing down in Lechlade, Kempsford & Fairford (Clare Muir) got the higher vote of the two councillors elected earlier this year.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 17, 2023 19:52:34 GMT
There's always one to break the trend indeed, though I don’t think Labour supporters will be exactly gloomy at such figures It doesn't really look a trend to me anyway, just a little bit of bouncing around within MoE
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 16, 2023 17:57:36 GMT
George Santos announces he's not running for re-election in NY-03 after the damning report of the House Ethics Committee which referred him for criminal prosecution. I'm astonished. Astonished that until today he was officially intending to run for re-election. His career has certainly gone in an interesting direction since he was a defensive midfielder at QPR.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 15, 2023 0:33:36 GMT
Is there any reason to take this lot seriously? I wouldn't totally rule out approx one third of right-wing small-c conservatives having a bit of a hissy fit right now and, if asked, saying they'd vote Reform. It's a big step from there to saying that's how they'd vote an actual GE of called tomorrow. (IIRC Lib Dems were polling at c 19% shortly before the 2019 GE was called, which crashed by about 5 points or so as soon as it was called, and then seeped away throughout the campaign.)
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 14, 2023 23:01:08 GMT
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 14, 2023 0:11:22 GMT
Sorry I'm lost. The only Light I know is the cinema? I was wondering too. Is it the 'newspaper' by that name? Yes. Anti-vax, anti-semitic (real ones, not the sort of thing Suella Braverman comes up with), every other lunatic conspiracy theory involving Bill Gates or Soros. There's usually. a bunch of weirdos pushing it in the High Street in Stroud most Saturday mornings, I'm not sure why they aren't moved on. I fear that most passers by think "Ah, a bunch of weird beardy loonies, possibly a folk band, nothing unusual for these parts" To be fair to her, I think Siobhan Baillie has been critical too.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 13, 2023 23:59:56 GMT
a good friend of mine in Stroud CLP is very active distributing anti-Light leaflets there. They need opposing strongly I've a friend who's too left-wing for you (last seen in TUSC, I think) who has done a bit. For example, there's a warning about them on the door of The Ale House on your way to the bar ("Don't buy The Light" with some details of their nastiness.)
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 13, 2023 22:27:17 GMT
But with more lesbians, or so I'm told. Not that I've done an in-depth survey of lesbianism in Stroud. (I was once told by a someone in the NHS that the two biggest problem areas - as they saw it - for people who refused conventional medicine were Stroud and Hebden Bridge.) Including some locally prominent people in Stroud (I wonder if they offer The Light in hebden bridge? I know they do I Howarth God, I thought that was just a Stroud thing. Bunch of bloody loonies, and not even entertaining with it.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 13, 2023 21:34:40 GMT
In that case, I'm even more intrigued as to what Calder Valley Liberals were doing that caused the telly to seek them out. Maybe Ed Davey should ask them. (Mind you, Calder Valley is Hebden Bridge, area isn't it? Might have to be a bit cautious in case it involved cannabis and/or paganism.) The Stroud of West Yorkshire But with more lesbians, or so I'm told. Not that I've done an in-depth survey of lesbianism in Stroud. (I was once told by a someone in the NHS that the two biggest problem areas - as they saw it - for people who refused conventional medicine were Stroud and Hebden Bridge.)
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 12, 2023 22:32:07 GMT
I'm intrigued to know about the occasions on which our beloved national press wanted to talk to Calder Valley Liberal Party in the years after 1987 but were turned away, disappointed. Actually it was more broadcasters. Channel 4 News were responsible for the 1987 constituency poll incident. In that case, I'm even more intrigued as to what Calder Valley Liberals were doing that caused the telly to seek them out. Maybe Ed Davey should ask them. (Mind you, Calder Valley is Hebden Bridge, area isn't it? Might have to be a bit cautious in case it involved cannabis and/or paganism.)
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 12, 2023 22:19:11 GMT
That fails to take into account that in 1996 polling was almost entirely random phone number calling, and little adjustment was done to correct for expected return to past voting intentions of 'don't know' voters. Sampling and methodology of opinion polls is quite different in 2023 from how it was in 1996, and the raw results are subject to a good deal of post-processing. It's possible the 2023 polls will snap back into line, like 1996. But that's a massive assumption. It's also assuming that the 1996 polls were in error, as opposed to there being a degree of shift between then and the actual election in 1997. A bit of Lib Dem oscillation between 14% and 17% (in those days) doesn't strike me as implausible, a slight move back towards the Conservatives and away from Labour during the campaign (with the Tories having perhaps hit their floor by the start) is possible - the opinion polls were heading that way (you can see them on the wikipedia page here.) Compared to the final polls on that graph, the actual result is about on track for the Tories, a point or so up for Lib Dems, and about 4 points down for Labour - presumably that must have gone to the "others" including nationalists in Scotland and Wales (where they perhaps benefited from a degree of tactical voting from Labour voters, as we did). Again, that too could happen in 2023, but it's not certain. My feeling is that the economy may get a bit better than it is now, but probably not as much as it did in 1997; and that Major was better at politics than Sunak.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 12, 2023 22:03:29 GMT
Portsmouth Labour Party still owe YouGov a huge amount for their win in Portsmouth South in 2017 alongside them being a non-completely insignificant presence on the City Council now. Talk about a self fulfilling prophecy... Oh dear me. Belief that voters in a constituency are hugely affected by opinion polls and MRPs seems to be an ongoing Lib Dem obsession ( look at the way Calder Valley Liberals threw a hissy fit over a constituency opinion poll in 1987 which showed Labour ahead and 'cheated them of a gain', and refused to speak to any national newspapers for many years). There really isn't much evidence voters take a significant interest in this sort of thing, except in certain heavily-polled byelections. I'm intrigued to know about the occasions on which our beloved national press wanted to talk to Calder Valley Liberal Party in the years after 1987 but were turned away, disappointed.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 10, 2023 23:27:18 GMT
Suppose Alexander III hadn't died in 1894 and had been Tsar going into WW1 instead of Nicolas II. Or indeed had died at a later point but this means that Nicolas now has time to learn to be a less crap Tsar when he does finally ascend to the throne. Could this have avoided the Russian Revolution? Well, firstly, Alexander would have been 69 at the start of the war, quite elderly for the era, which might have affected his grip on things. Secondly, he was a crap Tsar himself, whose rowing back from his predecessor's reforms helped make revolution rather than reform the likely response to the major economic and social changes occurring in Russia. Nicholas II got a lot of his crapness from following his father's belief in autocracy (I don't just mean authoritarianism, I mean the belief that the Tsar was ordained by God and had a duty to take the big decisions himself) Thirdly, I think it unlikely that any Tsar would have significantly improved the performance of the Russian army in the war, (or in theRusso-Japanese War) or kept Russia out altogether once it started (it was Alexander who made the alliance with France after all), one or the other of which I think was needed to avoid the pressure cooker blowing. Perhaps Alexander III might have been more cautious in his response to the assassination crisis and helped defuse the situation? If he could help avoid a major war altogether there would have been a chance, perhaps, but it's a tough call.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 10, 2023 22:34:40 GMT
The Hackney mayoral result was among the Greens’ best. Does anyone know if the Sue Limb who is on that list as candidate for MEP in the Cotswolds in 1989 is the same Sue Limb who wrote various Radio 4 Comedies (and who, according to Wikipedia, coined the word "bonkbuster")? Wiki also claims she lives on an organic farm near Wotton-under-Edge, so both constituency and party allegiance seem plausible
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 9, 2023 22:58:04 GMT
There is a question of salience, to 95% of the electorate, this conflict matters very little. Yes, plus it's got to "matter" in the sense of big something you expect the people you vote for to deal with. The state of QPR matters to me, I don't expect my MP to do anything about it. I think a lot of people watch the news from Gaza with sadness/disgust/despair at one side or both, but it's a different thing to decide that you think the PM or LOTO should fix it. Clearly some people within Labour think Starmer should say stuff they agree with, but that's because he's their leader, they want him to show thinks like them. But for the ordinary voter, party leaders aren't their leader, they are just people who are auditioning for a job; and the job isn't "solve the Middle East problem*", it's "make my life better." * Just as well, no-one sane would apply**. ** Still, easier than fixing QPR, and people still seem to apply for that. Not always sane ones, though.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 9, 2023 22:48:59 GMT
There is a question of salience, to 95% of the electorate, this conflict matters very little. Yes, plus it's got to "matter" in the sense of big something you expect the people you vote for to deal with. The state of QPR matters to me, I don't expect my MP to do anything about it. I think a lot of people watch the news from Gaza with sadness/disgust/despair at one side or both, but it's a different thing to decide that you think the PM or LOTO should fix it. Clearly some people within Labour think Starmer should say stuff they agree with, but that's because he's their leader, they want him to show thinks like them. But for the ordinary voter, party leaders aren't their leader, they are just people who are auditioning for a job; and the job isn't "solve the Middle East problem*", it's "make my life better." * Just as well, no-one sane would apply.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 8, 2023 23:44:01 GMT
That is comical. Splitters, consensualists and loyalists. And the consensualists are in coalition with the splitters, not the loyalists. Yeah, it's barking. I've genuinely no idea what will happen come the May district elections and whether or not it will have any impact on Labour campaigning for the General Election. My guess is that Labour may struggle to field a full slate of candidates for the former, and that a least some of the defectors will retain their seats, but that unless there is a shift in the national polling, they will win the latter whether or not they struggle to find activists. European Lefty would probably know but I expect isn't telling!
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 8, 2023 23:31:57 GMT
I'd also say that a problem in using Stroud as a template for what might happen in other areas, even if a majority for Labour councillors defected, is that here the other parties in the administration were keen to keep an alliance going in order to retain control of the council, and were therefore willing to work with any Labour or ex-Labour group, so long as the numbers could be made to outvote the Tory group. Labour's local difficulty with its own councillors wasn't a thing that bothered the other parties either way.
If the defections were tied to the Israel-Palestine issue then there would be potential problems with other parties, who would have to consider whether they would be perceived as supporting one side or the other on the Palestine-Israel issue, and I'd expect that to be problematic.
(Tangentially, there was a link in the Stroud case, as my understanding is that Doina Cornell was excluded from the Labour PPC section process over historic tweets she had made on the Palestine issue, but there was quite a lot of wriggle room over (a) whether or not said tweets were in fact anti-semitic and (b) the time that had elapsed since she made them.
Plus, no-one else in the district gave a bugger about internal Labour Starmerite v Corbynite feuding,)
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 8, 2023 23:17:28 GMT
In Stroud the bulk of the Labour group followed their leader. This has not been the case in Burnley, where Labour continues to be the largest group. A majority did leave, as you say, but strictly speaking they didn't all follow their leader - for reasons beyond me there are two separate ex-Labour groups (both of whom are in the administration), one comprising those who who left in support of Doina Cornell and then a second group who left (as I understand it) in protest at being told by the Labour Party that they couldn't be in coalition with their ex-colleagues.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Oct 30, 2023 23:48:10 GMT
Talk of a crisis in the Labour Party might be somewhat overblown in the light of the opinion polls. While a majority of voters apparently want a ceasefire in Gaza, it isn't a vote-changer for the vast majority of voters. It isn't for me either but then I despise the leadership of both sides in this conflict, even if I despise one side (Hamas) considerably more strongly than I despise the other. Absolutely all of that is sound. Keir Starmer (or anyone else) could have the most barking policy on Israel/Palestine imaginable and it wouldn't matter a bugger because (a) the conflict has no practical effect on the vast majority of British voters and (b) there's bugger all the UK can do about it anyway. The only important thing is not to say or do anything that indicates that you are unfit for office due to either terminal idiocy or being best mates with butchers. Even in then, you've got to be worse than the other guy, and in the case at hand the worst thing you can say about Starmer is that he's no different to Sunak. Maybe Muslim voters will flock to the Lib Dems (can't see them going Green or Reform) out of disgust with Starmer and Sunak, but I seriously doubt it. I don't imagine that we are going to sweep Bradford, Leicester East, Tower Hamlets or Slough any time soon.
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