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Stroud
Apr 22, 2024 20:51:55 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 22, 2024 20:51:55 GMT
Have now just been sent a copy of what I imagine is the MP's letter that European Lefty refers to. Virtually no blue on it with one exception - big red top, presumably in tribute to The Sun, but making it look like a Labour leaflet a first glance; big chunk of Lib Dem yellow inside. The expenses limits for PCCs are vast so I suspect that they are using some of the Conservative Party's massive war chest to put out paid-for delivery to make up for lack of activist deliverers. Somewhat oddly, the only blue part is in a section contrasting the alleged Tory and Labour records on crime, which rather misses the point that the obvious challenger to the incumbent Tory PCC is the former PCC, previously independent now standing under Lib Dem colours, or just possibly the new independent, with the Labour PCC candidate quite clearly being unserious.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 22, 2024 20:38:41 GMT
The Greens are running an odd campaign in Dursley - mostly being ignored by the party while their main candidate and her partner do a bit of canvassing, but then they had a massive campaign day with Natalie Bennett. In truth it's more word of mouth and the like that will decide her vote rather than canvassing or leaflets - whilst our canvassing suggests they aren't much of a threat, it my not detect their true strength. Nevertheless, I'm not so sure about a Green gain now. Meanwhile, in Cam East I've had the MP's "leaflet disguised a newsletter" delivered by post, and another similar one that revolves entirely around policing, clearly meant to be for the PCC election. I know Berkeley Vale has had a local leaflet from them, but nobody in Cam East appears to have had anything about the locals (the other two don't even mention them). If they've given up on Cam East they're in real trouble - if they think it's guaranteed for them, that's quite complacent. Stroud branch have apparently thrown the kitchen sink at F&PHang on, is that Stroud Labour Party and Farmhill and Paganhill? That's my ward. Can't be much of a kitchen sink, I've had one (quite decent, but only A5) leaflet early in the campaign, no follow-up, and no canvassing. My daughter's at home most days so would know if they'd knocked, and I've not had an out-slip. Since we're not standing here I'm pretty up for voting for Labour tactically so I'm sort of hoping they call. I've actually had just as much from UKIP for their Town Council candidate as I've had from Labour. (Showed it to my daughter, who quite rightly said that the candidate's photo looked like a Police mugshot; my thought was of someone arrested for glassing someone in a pub.) There are now a decent number of Labour posters/boards around though I think the Green Party still have the edge across the District; I don't read too much into that. Two large leaflets from the Green Party, pretty much identical to all their other leaflets across the District but with the names changed. I wonder if their big day in Dursley with Natalie Bennett was some sort of "mutual aid" day out with people called in from neighbouring authorities without local elections (e.g. the Forest)? No sign of anything from the Tories, who are theoretically incumbents. I have heard vague rumours of the odd thing from Siobhain Baillie MP elsewhere in the District (down in the Severn Vale,) presumably same as you.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 20, 2024 21:01:14 GMT
Slack water. Posted in fond memory of a former poster. Always good to remember Tony Greaves, and not wanting to spoil the joke, but "slack water" means a period between tides when no movement is visible, before the tide turns. Serious question: do we expect any change to come? Do we expect a narrowing the polls (an ebb in the Labour tide)? Or maybe a further shift in the other direction - is there a floor for the Tories below where they are now?
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 13, 2024 22:12:06 GMT
Anyone posting pictures of genitalia on a public website is a disgusting person and deserves absolutely no sympathy or to be cut any slack at all. The man is obviously 'thinking with his prick' in an all too literal sense and should be chucked out and branded as a dissolute pervert and an actual menace at large. Is this an indication that politics draws in a higher proportion of show-offs, perverts and criminals of all sorts; or is this a true reflection of society as it has now degenerated? Or was it ever thus with many of us innocent of the enormity of the dissoluteness of a significant minority? I struggle to understand why sending pictures of your genitalia to someone you've never even met is A Thing. In My Day we weren't exactly behaving by standards of a Jane Austen novel, but you used to at least try to get off on the dance floor, or buy them a drink, or something. Whatever happened to A Nice Bunch Of Flowers, eh?
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Stroud
Apr 13, 2024 22:04:08 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 13, 2024 22:04:08 GMT
Fair few in Stroud though not overwhelmingly so, plenty in Painswick. Lots in certain parts of Wotton, none in the social housing areas. I haven't ventured up the Severn, the Golden Valley or Minch this week. Hard to tell if the Greens have spread themselves too thin; my instinct is that they have, but they are leafletting fairly heavily and are the only party out of the traps on the stakeboard, err, stakes. I suspect they have may been granted a dollop of central party funds, if there is such a thing. Then again, a Lib Dem of my acquaintance once said: "If you see 100 Green posters, you've got 100 Green voters: if you see one Tory poster, you've also got 100 Tory voters". (Maybe not this year, but you get the point.) Can't help feeling that having union jacks plastered all over Labour's boards isn't an especially helpful look for Labour in this particular District All their leaflets claim sole responsibility for everything done by the Co-operative Alliance, ever, which I feel may rile potential Labour switchers in Stroud. Certainly a lot of people round here are not happy about the Green leaflets/social media. I just hope it doesn't harm what has been a very good and productive working relationship between the two parties.
I did wonder if they might spread themselves too thin so it's interesting that a couple of people have said it. The distribution of poster stakes here suggests the party are working hard in Uley but only one candidate is in Dursley which would be fairly sensible for them I would anticipate that after a bit there will be decent working relations in the council chamber. But I do think they have done some damage across the board; they have certainly got up my nose a bit.
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Stroud
Apr 12, 2024 20:04:47 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 12, 2024 20:04:47 GMT
Seen my first poster stakes of the campaign - half of Uley have Green stakes, and there's one in Dursley. The Green campaign in Dursley mostly seems to be over Facebook to very few followers, with two candidates doing some candidates and leaflets. Labour might nick the 3rd seat after all..... Apparently Stroud has a similar dominance of Green stakes, apparently. A couple of people have said that Greens may have got cocky and spread themselves to thin, and that this might cost them - I'm not sure I've seen hard evidence of this but then where I live I'd be unlikely to Fair few in Stroud though not overwhelmingly so, plenty in Painswick. Lots in certain parts of Wotton, none in the social housing areas. I haven't ventured up the Severn, the Golden Valley or Minch this week. Hard to tell if the Greens have spread themselves too thin; my instinct is that they have, but they are leafletting fairly heavily and are the only party out of the traps on the stakeboard, err, stakes. I suspect they have may been granted a dollop of central party funds, if there is such a thing. Then again, a Lib Dem of my acquaintance once said: "If you see 100 Green posters, you've got 100 Green voters: if you see one Tory poster, you've also got 100 Tory voters". (Maybe not this year, but you get the point.) Can't help feeling that having union jacks plastered all over Labour's boards isn't an especially helpful look for Labour in this particular District All their leaflets claim sole responsibility for everything done by the Co-operative Alliance, ever, which I feel may rile potential Labour switchers in Stroud.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 9, 2024 21:13:47 GMT
I suspect he's getting kitten gloves because Tory head office know that's Hazel Grove and probably Cheadle gone for the next parliament if there's a by election in the area this summer. We know by-elections teach the electorate to vote tactically. From what I heard, he's had some sort of breakdown or mental health crisis. I think that's the reason. Hasn't he had some such crisis in the past? He was very interesting in tis recent piece in The Guardian Overall he comes over as a likeable bloke and that's probably gained him some time, although personally I feel likeability and "bravery" have been heavily trumped by sheer bloody stupidity in this case. I gather several Young Liberals were targeted by the same scammer at Conference and all managed to work out that it was indeed a scam and therefore refrained from sending dick pics.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 9, 2024 20:16:42 GMT
A final note on Wotton-under-Edge: "being worked hard by Labour for the GE" quite amused me: very sensible of course, it being newly back in the constituency and an area where there is currently a non-Tory majority at council level.
But the only reference to local politics in the Labour leaflet was a photo of the Labour PPC stood next to "local campaigner on rural bus routes, County Councillor Linda Cohen".
No mention of just which party said County Councillor belongs to, but all publicity for our candidates is gratefully received.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 9, 2024 20:07:46 GMT
Incidentally, I think European Lefty is slightly doing down his party's prospects, in that he has forgotten his own observation that Haydn Sutton is not standing again for the Tories in Stroud Farmhill and Paganhill. Without his personal vote I don't see the Tories holding the ward; the Tory candidate is certainly not proclaiming an address within the ward and while that isn't as crucial in a Stroud Town ward as in some parts of the District it does not suggest to me that he is going to put in the effort to win over voters in a ward that has swung between Labour and Con in the past. My personal view is that the Labour candidate looks more impressive than the Green and in any case the ward generally feels more "Labour" than "Green" so I'd have it down as a Labour gain. (As a straw in the wind, there are contested elections for two Town Council seats in the ward on the same day, for which both Labour and the Green Party have put up two candidates, in each case including their District candidates; no Tory is standing. But there is single lesser-spotted UKIP candidate, which in itself tells you a bit about the make-up of the ward and the lack of Tory activity.)
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Stroud
Apr 9, 2024 19:57:48 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 9, 2024 19:57:48 GMT
Just a note here: this was not previously a fairly safe Conservative seat. It was held by the Lib Dems long-term before a narrow Tory gain in 2016, which was then reversed in 2021. You are correct. In my defence it is quite a long way outside my main area of interest! (Round here you rarely go south unless you're going to Bristol). Always looks and feels like a Tory area when I have had cause to go to or through it Looks and feels conservative but actually quite strongly Lib Dem. An issue is that Kingswood and Wotton-under-Edge (which definitely belong in the same council; the secondary school for Wotton is Katherine Lady Berkeley, right on the edge of the village of Kingswood, while Wotton is the obvious shopping centre for Kingswood) are a sort of deep-south enclave of the District, with relatively little connection with Stroud itself; and for some decades, dating back to John Cordwell's long reign as County Councillor for the Wotton-under-Edge County Division - the Lib Dems have been a sort of Plaid Wotton if not WNP.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 7, 2024 22:08:37 GMT
Gloucester has a peculiar place in the imagination. The second most famous person associated with it is the presumably fictional Dr Foster, whose experience cannot be described as positive: Doctor Foster went to Gloucester, In a shower of rain; He stepped in a puddle, Right up to his middle, And never went there again. Where does Beatrix Potter's Tailor of Gloucester fit into this? From a musical POV, Gloucester was the city where Vaughan Williams' Fantasia on a Theme by Thomas Tallis was first performed at the Three Choirs Festival, and it was also the city of origin of the ill-fated composer and poet Ivor Gurney. There must, however, be numerous eminent rugby players with an association with the city, which remains one of the places where the rugby union code is the pre-eminent form of football. It has numerous important historic connections, but chances are most people don't associate them with the city. Aethelflaed, Lady of the Mercians (daughter of King Alfred and herself conqueror of the Mercian Danelaw) is buried there Domesday Book was presented to William the Conqueror in Gloucester Abbey (as it was before the Reformation) Robert Duke of Normandy, eldest son of William and claimant to the throne of England, is buried in the Abbey Henry III was crowned there - only king of England crowned outside of Westminster Abbey (under French occupation at the time) Lady Jane Grey was proclaimed Queen from the balcony of the New Inn (which, naturally, is one of the oldest pub buildings in the city, and perhaps the best preserved galleried courtyard inns in the country: the beer was bloody lousy whenever I've been in it, though.)
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 7, 2024 19:43:34 GMT
Often a big problem in even quite large provincial towns away from major postindustrial concentrations, let alone in the countryside. Gloucester is a funny old place it has to be said. Got lots going for it but always seems to feel run down and a little like it's given up. It could do with some regeneration, and more to the something to promote itself properly and restore some pride in the city (especially as its civic identity has always been very strong). But I suspect a lot of people feel like politics does little for them and that there's almost no point in getting involved Very much agree with that; Gloucester is odd like that and I have to confess that I rather prefer it to Cheltenham for precisely that reason, while still feeling that just a bit of cleaning up and some more life in the place would do it good.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 7, 2024 19:35:55 GMT
But the LD vote isn't "holding up" here, it is displacing Labour (at local level.) The local LDs generally have their tails up there but the shambolic nature of Labour for some years now puzzles me - judging by the SOPN in Barton & Tredworth I can only assume some factional infighting, possibly post-Corbyn purges or similar.I actually think it's simpler than that - a lot of Labour members appear to have "aged out" of activity and not been replaced by younger activists A horribly familiar problem and all too plausible.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 6, 2024 13:59:31 GMT
Arguably it is partly due to demographic change caused by middle class voters priced out of Cheltenham moving to the nicer parts of Gloucester although poor organisation is also clearly to blame, which is why the Liberal Democrat vote in the Gloucester constituency has over the last 3 parliamentary elections held up better than most in places of this type cf. Lincoln. But the LD vote isn't "holding up" here, it is displacing Labour (at local level.) The local LDs generally have their tails up there but the shambolic nature of Labour for some years now puzzles me - judging by the SOPN in Barton & Tredworth I can only assume some factional infighting, possibly post-Corbyn purges or similar.
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Stroud
Apr 5, 2024 20:54:26 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 5, 2024 20:54:26 GMT
Surely David Drew is Stroud Central. Yes. EDIT: sorry, I may have misinterpreted your query. Yes, he is standing there. No, he is not incumbent; that was Kathryn Crews for the Green Party, but who is not standing there again. (Haven't checked to see if she's elsewhere on the card) In 2021 Drew stood in Farmhill and Paganhill, coming second to Haydn Sutton for the Conservatives. He also stood in the County Elections for the County Division of Stroud Central and was elected, ahead of Molly Scott-Cato for the Green Party, in what was widely seen as a grudge match following the General Election. FURTHER EDIT: Kathryn Crews is indeed elsewhere on the slate, namely Cainscross, giving an address in Rodborough (ie in neither Central nor Cainscross, which may explain her replacement as candidate in Central.)
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 5, 2024 19:59:00 GMT
I think this is the first time since Stroud moved to all-out that Labour and the Green Party have each fielded a full slate.
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Stroud
Apr 5, 2024 19:57:28 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 5, 2024 19:57:28 GMT
Also key: Doina Cornell and Trevor Hall stand down in Dursley though they have endorsed Green candidate, (recently) former Town councillor Danae Savvidou. Ken Tucker retires in Wotton, which is a bit of a shock. With no co-operation between the Greens and LDs that could spell trouble for the LDs though county cllr Linda Cohen would be a favourite to get elected. David Drew stands in Stroud Central, which you'd normally expect to be a solid Green seat. I think one of the Nailsworth Greens is the widow of cllr Norman Kay who sadly passed away shortly before Christmas. Helen Fenton, elected as Labour alongside two Greens in Chalford, defends her seat as a Green. Couple of perennial candidates stand again - Mike Stayte in Severn (which narrowly doesn't include his house) and former mayor of Berkeley Liz Ashton stands again for Labour. Long-time incumbent Haydn Sutton stands down in Stroud Farmhill & Paganhill. Repeat fixture in the pages of Private Eye, Nick Housden, defends his Stonehouse seat Correct.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Mar 27, 2024 23:37:36 GMT
Question. If Johnny Mercer gets jailed for contempt will he have the whip withdrawn? Mercer is widely regarded as a good egg. I do not share this view. Reporting of his allegation that British forces committed war crimes and his principled refusal to name his sources habitually fails to offer the possible reason that he is a lying little shit who has invented it all. I think this possibility should be entertained, it being no less plausible than the possibility that no elderly white widow ever told Enoch Powell that she had dog shit shoved through her letter box by black children. Further question. If somebody told you that UK forces had shot prisoners, would you make it your mission in life to expose the crime, or would decide that the issue of potholes in your constituency was more where you wanted to make your mark? Honest to God, it's pretty much an open secret among people who served in Afghanistan that the SAS were up to this stuff. I've never heard anything alleged against other units.
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Stroud
Mar 23, 2024 0:34:33 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Mar 23, 2024 0:34:33 GMT
I don't think I'm giving away too many party secrets if I say that it seems very unlikely any of the Cam/Dursley CIs will stand again. Town councillor Danae Savvidou is standing in Dursley for the Greens. She has name recognition and has been active for a Dursley Green candidate, but I don't think the Greens have enough support for her to actually win. I note that a column in the SNJ (I think - didn't look like the Gazette from the photo I saw) talked about the Greens, LibDems and Independents keeping the Tories out of power, whilst conveniently ignoring the party who actually led the council for ten years..... Elsewhere, Labour candidate in Stroud Valley has been active, but again is somewhat up against it on party terms. Labour's candidates in Severn have been very active, and one of them does live in Eastington - my early pick for a shock gain. Incumbent Labour councillor for Cainscross, Jenny Miles, is standing in the Stanleys according to her Facebook. John Callinan stands again in Stonehouse, alongside two new candidates. Labour's "out and about" work in Cam and Dursley appears to be working, whether or not it's enough to increase our count from the last election remains to be seen. I hope/expect so. (all of this is candidates who have delivered leaflets, or canvassed, or been announced on the party website) That will be a slightly sad end to the career of Doina Cornell, who politically might not be precisely my cup of tea but was a perfectly sound leader of the council in her day. It all seems rather unnecessary but I wish her well in whatever she does next.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Mar 8, 2024 22:46:12 GMT
I am a sceptic of this view. Reform's current polling goes well beyond mid-term blues and into long-term threat. I appreciate that they aren't as electorally successful as their polling but I don't think we will see a 2017 UKIP and 2019 Reform style collapse here. Even if Reform support did drop back by the same extent UKIP did in 2015, it would save the Conservatives 25 seats at best not likely to make a difference in the present climate. Focus groups seem to suggest that Reform voters are pretty hardened anti-Conservative voters but I doubt they will vote Labour any time soon either. You might be misunderstanding me slightly. What I'm saying is, of the 13% who say they'll vote Reform in this poll, let's say only 7% actually do so which seems more realistic (though some would still say it'll be less than that in the end). Of the remaining 6% who don't vote Reform, I think a majority will vote Conservative, but that will only represent about 4% of the voting electorate, so nothing like enough to do more than take the edge of Labour's landslide a bit. Probably a further 1% will end up voting Labour as a negative vote against the Conservatives, so out of that the Tories would reduce Labour's lead by only 3%, leaving it still very big. I do agree with what you're saying. Ben Ansell has a very nice tool for running those sort of calculations (including the amount of tactical voting by Lib Dems, Labour and Greens, which, if you're being quasi-scientific about it, you could inform by looking at some of the "certain to vote for this party" polling. link
I tried putting in these poll numbers but, following your suggestion, switched 50% of Reform back to Conservative (with no other tactical voting) and it shifted the seat totals from Lab majority of 250+ to Lab majority 150 Of course there will be tactical voting by Labour, LDs and Greens, so if these figures were borne out, even with half the Reform vote going back to the Conservatives, things are bad for the latter on best case and potentially catastrophic. For example, if half the Reform vote goes back to Tory but the other parties also vote tactically by 50% you are into Ed Davey as LOTO territory (and quite comfortably so, at that.) Perhaps more plausibly, 50% Reform going Tory but 33% of Lab, LD and Green voting tactically allows Rishi to stay on as LOTO until defenestrated but still takes the Conservatives to sub-100 seats and Lab majority north of 250. Obviously all fun and games, and I don't think anyone's regarding People Polling as anything but an outlier, but I recommend Ansell's tool as a way of adjusting some of the improbabilities (and also just for fun)
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