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Post by Foggy on Feb 24, 2018 20:45:28 GMT
Well, that makes sense if it is focussed on the urban areas along the coast. However, the result last June in Bognor Regis & Littlehampton wasn't particularly striking, unlike the Worthing seats, so while it would be entertaining I think we're still a long way from the Tories quoting a possibly apocryphal saying of George V on a general election night. how much difference did the changes in 2010 make? the majority before that had been as low as 5,643 ( 2001) - and that over Labour. Isn't it a bit misleading to refer to majorities purely in raw vote terms from an election that had a notoriously low turnout? That figure of 5,643 still represented a lead of 14.5%, which is enough to call it safe if that was the Tories' low ebb in the seat and they've held it easily ever since.
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Post by Foggy on Feb 24, 2018 20:00:48 GMT
Well, until about 12 years ago, by-elections on Maundy Thursday were of course illegal. Perhaps some councils' electoral services officers have forgotten about the change to the law, or else are just religious and socially conservative so try to avoid counts potentially carrying on into Good Friday? Would there be additional costs finishing the count on Good Friday? That's a very good point, actually. It's not just deference to a Christian observance – having to pay bank holiday rates to staff could be an important consideration in these straitened times.
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Feb 24, 2018 19:53:27 GMT
Post by Foggy on Feb 24, 2018 19:53:27 GMT
Sweden is the only Nordic country to have never had a female PM. Denmark has had one and the rest have had two, I think. (I'm ignoring the Faroes, Ålands and Greenland) Did I imagine Aleqa Hammond, then?
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Feb 24, 2018 5:02:39 GMT
Post by Foggy on Feb 24, 2018 5:02:39 GMT
Of countries with a significant but not majority Muslim population, and who have also had a woman PM, there is also .......... ............the United Kingdom. And France. And Germany. And Sweden. And (etc) Which Prime Minister of Sweden was female??
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Post by Foggy on Feb 24, 2018 0:07:17 GMT
There appear to be no by-elections on 29th March, which is Maundy Thursday. Well, until about 12 years ago, by-elections on Maundy Thursday were of course illegal. Perhaps some councils' electoral services officers have forgotten about the change to the law, or else are just religious and socially conservative so try to avoid counts potentially carrying on into Good Friday?
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Post by Foggy on Feb 23, 2018 23:25:30 GMT
Hi, I'm Jim, 39, Conservative supporter. Animal lover, repeat pizza enjoyer, fan of Eurovision and World's Strongest Man. Also building a model railway layout. Welcome! I'm not sure there are many followers of strongman contests (as opposed to political strongmen in developing countries) here but it's not exactly an objectionable interest either. Other than that, I think you'll fit right in.
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Post by Foggy on Feb 23, 2018 23:07:26 GMT
Hard to believe this was a Lib Dem seat less than 3 years ago The parliamentary constituency last voted for a Lib Dem nearly 8 years ago. The LDs don't even have a list seat in the South of Scotland region at Holyrood anymore, so such a weak result in the by-election shouldn't be all that surprising.
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Post by Foggy on Feb 23, 2018 22:40:59 GMT
I have never had cause to pick up the copy of that particular publication, but I have bought a pink 'un at service stations in the West Midlands on the way back from Manchester 20 years ago, and cannot recall those making a point of reporting Gloucester City FC's results on those occasions. Nor has The Bristol Post ever reciprocally attempted to annex Evesham. The Birmingham Post positioned itself as a regional daily morning paper, though it's now a weekly, coming out on Thursday. The Birmingham [Evening] Mail and it's pink sports paper, the Sports Argus, were always more locally focussed, say within 10-15 miles of Birmingham City Centre. Wolverhampton still has it's very own Express and Star, and Coventry has the Coventry Telegraph (the Bellylaugh to locals). In common with most local pink (or blue or green) sports papers, the Argus no longer publishes separately, and the last I knew it was a pink insert in the local Sunday paper, the Sunday Mercury. The move away from 3pm Saturday kick-offs for top-league football matches means there's less to write about, and online reporting has also played its part. Ah, I see. Thanks for the local knowledge. Back when my father used to pick up a copy of The Bristol Post on the way home from work, it was still called The Evening Post, so you can guess what time of day it's published. I believe the Green 'Un ceased publication around here a few years ago as well. The decline of Saturday 3 o'clock starts in football is indeed a matter of regret.
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Post by Foggy on Feb 23, 2018 0:06:59 GMT
The Birmingham Post can buzz off with the idea of trying to annex Gloucestershire for the Midlands! If it's part of the area where the Birmingham Post circulates, it's worth writing about. It's like on the Saturday after local election day when the Yorkshire Post prints all the ward results for Yorkshire: they include Bassetlaw in that listing, not because it's in Yorkshire but because the YP circulates there. I have never had cause to pick up the copy of that particular publication, but I have bought a pink 'un at service stations in the West Midlands on the way back from Manchester 20 years ago, and cannot recall those making a point of reporting Gloucester City FC's results on those occasions. Nor has The Bristol Post ever reciprocally attempted to annex Evesham.
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Post by Foggy on Feb 22, 2018 21:12:40 GMT
Robert Waller argued in the Almanac of British Politics that Aldridge-Brownhills is the only constituency that voted Labour in both 1974 elections, but never before or since. The B.Post, 9 Feb 1974, lists the key Midland marginals - Handsworth, Perry Barr, Yardley, Gloucester, The Wrekin, Leek, Meriden, Rugby, Aldridge-Brownhills, Warley East, Halesowen & Stourbridge, Lichfield& Tamworth, Bromsgrove & Redditch, West Bromwich East and Walsall South. The Birmingham Post can buzz off with the idea of trying to annex Gloucestershire for the Midlands!
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Post by Foggy on Feb 22, 2018 2:04:38 GMT
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Post by Foggy on Feb 22, 2018 2:01:28 GMT
Apparently the electoral system has been changed since the last few elections where the party or coalition that won the most votes would automatically get an overall majority even if they'd only received say 30% of the popular vote. Not "apparently" – it's been discussed already upthread and yes, as you'll see the majority bonus has gone as the previous electoral law was declared unconstitutional. It is now likely that no single party or bloc will win a majority at this election.
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Post by Foggy on Feb 22, 2018 1:48:27 GMT
Seats where the Green vote exceeded the Conservative majority in 2010. Brighton, Kemptown Broxtowe Camborne & Redruth Cardiff North Hendon Hove Lancaster & Fleetwood Oxford West & Abingdon Stroud Truro & Falmouth Waveney All lost in 2010 or 2015 or held by under 2,000 vote, except Truro and Waveney. A seat the Conservatives lost in 2010 cannot easily have had a Tory majority that same year!
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Post by Foggy on Feb 20, 2018 20:53:47 GMT
India is the go-to place for this kind of thing. In 2014 the Congress incumbent for Shrawasti in Uttar Pradesh - Vinay Kumar Pandey - polled 2.1%. He had been elected in 2009 with 33.3%. Note no defection, same party label etc. That must be the biggest drop in raw votes too. He went down from 201,556 in 2009 to just 20,006 at the following election.
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Post by Foggy on Feb 19, 2018 23:32:33 GMT
As I've pointed out before, evidence for the claim that the 1974 boundaries were delayed for partisan reasons is lacking. The Labour government was expressing concern about the effect of changing the boundaries at the same time as the Redcliff-Maud changes to local government structure long before the shape of the new boundaries and therefore the partisan impact was known. I attended part of the Commons debate, watching from the Strangers' Gallery. It was embarrassing. There was never the slightest doubt in anyone's mind that the changes were being delayed for partizan reasons. Yes, they are clearly going to be blocked in order to stop Crvena Zvezda from winning the next general election.
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Post by Foggy on Feb 19, 2018 23:21:28 GMT
I think it probably is normal not to give full preferences where it isn't compulsory (Australia is a different matter), but there is definitely a strongly anti-separatist pattern of tactical preference flows in parts of Scotland at the moment too. What's the evidence for it being a regional as opposed to a partisan pattern? The Conservative, and to a lesser extent Lib Dem, vote tends to transfer in an anti-separatist manner, but it looks to me like the Labour vote normally transfers at a low rate anyway, and more to the SNP than the Tories. Okay, maybe 'strong' was overstating the case slightly, but there are definitely different dynamics at play at Scotland. The evidence of the most recent by-election is that GB-wide factors (progressive/anti-Tory pact) and a 'just vote 1' attitude from Labour voters are in the ascendant, but that won't necessarily be what happens everywhere from now until 2022.
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Post by Foggy on Feb 19, 2018 0:03:01 GMT
Is there a list of people who were elected NAZI MPs with Hitler took charge. Was there also a Corbyn type figure who voted against the policies of Hitler? To answer your first question: there's a list of all MPs here who were in the Reichstag when Hitler was appointed Chancellor, but it's in alphabetical order and not searchable by party. Group affiliation is listed in brackets after each name, though. I've no idea what you're getting at with the second question.
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Post by Foggy on Feb 18, 2018 22:51:45 GMT
Non-transferable just means that the voter hasn't given a preference to the SNP candidate beyond the Conservative candidate. Indeed, I think it must. So marking "5" out of 5 counts as "giving a preference". This means 1033 electors left the SNP blank, which I initially found hard to believe, but perhaps there really is such hostility towards them, or is it just normal in STV/AV elections for electors not to number everyone? I think it probably is normal not to give full preferences where it isn't compulsory (Australia is a different matter), but there is definitely a strongly anti-separatist pattern of tactical preference flows in parts of Scotland at the moment too.
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Post by Foggy on Feb 18, 2018 21:34:31 GMT
AFAIK electronic counting has never been used for the constituency vote (and probably not for the list vote either). There were lots of spoilt ballots in 2007 because that was the only time it was attempted to hold all-out council elections and a Scottish Parliament election on the same day, plus STV had only just been introduced for the former. Besides, Sturgeon won by a majority of 3.5% on that occasion – so, close but not that close – and had been banging on the door in that seat at the previous two Holyrood elections. Electronic counting was in fact used for all three ballots in Scotland 2007. It enabled very accurate notional results to be drawn up for the 2011 Holyrood election based on the polling station breakdown. Also, the 1999 and 2003 Holyrood elections were combined with all-out local elections.
Thanks for the correction about electronic counting. It's a pity that they didn't carry on with that arrangement, considering the detailed information we get from GLA elections – although it's not even down to polling station there, is it? I actually knew that local (FPTP) elections had been combined with Holyrood elections in 1999 and 2003 but just phrased my explanation very badly.
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Post by Foggy on Feb 18, 2018 0:24:16 GMT
Wasnt computer counting one of the reasons Labour lost the seat glasgow govan in a close contest in 2007. The high number of spoiled ballots identified being a big part of the result AFAIK electronic counting has never been used for the constituency vote (and probably not for the list vote either). There were lots of spoilt ballots in 2007 because that was the only time it was attempted to hold all-out council elections and a Scottish Parliament election on the same day, plus STV had only just been introduced for the former. Besides, Sturgeon won by a majority of 3.5% on that occasion – so, close but not that close – and had been banging on the door in that seat at the previous two Holyrood elections.
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