Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Apr 12, 2024 19:19:45 GMT
Hardly. And, well, given where she's now politically, in economic policy, in the culture wars... no one's ruling it out. Meaning it's also the only option neither being ruled out nor totally impossible numberswise. I guess we'll have to wait and see. I think the CSU would deeply regret it. Unless it's at the federal level or in Bavaria, then such a coalition is technically none of their business.
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Post by Foggy on Apr 12, 2024 17:03:25 GMT
To play devil's advocate once again: a reminder that this is meant to be a message board dedicated to psephology. Preferential systems are in that sense "better" than FPTP in that they offer us more electoral data to analyse, even the superfluous final stage calculated by the IT program in Scotland.
Having said all that, I still don't think STV would be at all appropriate for electing either house of the UK Parliament.
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Post by Foggy on Apr 4, 2024 7:51:08 GMT
I am going to feel a little bit disappointed when I watch the coverage of the Euros on EuroNews and France 24 this year, knowing that because 37% of the UK electorate believed the lies they were told, I, as someone who voted in every single European election I was able to (1994 - 2019) and a fully committed supporter of the European project will be denied my right to express my views on the European Union. My heart bleeds for you As I said the other day about local government, it's often important to remind ourselves that this forum is primarily about psephological information. Whatever you think of our EU membership and the current loss of it, we are being deprived of more British electoral results and statistics this June. From a point of view of observing European politics, you're also getting data from one member state fewer than last time - and with all due respect to, say, Slovakia, I think we're one of the more interesting countries to follow. Not to mention that if you live in England* you no longer get to vote in any type of election via a preferential or proportional system. * Yes, for those in the capital there's the London Assembly... but if you think the EP's a pointless talking shop, wait till you see what goes on (or doesn't) in The Testicle!
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Post by Foggy on Apr 1, 2024 20:02:55 GMT
Not that I made a beeline for her social media or anything, but there's a picture on there of her posing with Roger and referring to 'passing the torch' but she doesn't directly call him Taid or the like so I'm presuming there's no (close) relation.
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Post by Foggy on Apr 1, 2024 19:50:45 GMT
The purpose of the districts is of course to provide people like us with more psephological data.
Identity and a link to history are paramount when it comes to forming local government units, but so are genuine autonomy and figuring out what they can and should do.
Therefore in hindsight I conclude that regions (not even envisaged in the 1970s) should provide the economies of scale for slight deviation on national policies to meet the needs of their respective areas, while the counties tick the identity/continuity box and are still big enough to execute a few token statutory duties. In that sense, I'm afraid old Mickie Helicopters is right to say that the districts are pointless. But sadly there'd be even fewer weekly by-elections without them.
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Post by Foggy on Mar 27, 2024 0:47:06 GMT
If we aren't already past the deadline for vacancies to be published for May 2nd, it's by a hair's breath. What have you been smoking to make you think hairs can breathe?
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Post by Foggy on Mar 18, 2024 17:23:30 GMT
What is seat #2 in West Yorkshire actually meant to be called? There's only one Cleethorpes (thank goodness)!
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Post by Foggy on Mar 17, 2024 22:03:12 GMT
Dipping into Dorset, the big unitary divisions make the rural seats less than neat so could be tidied up with splits. In the built-up part, I'm not sure the BCE would actually go for Poole & Wareham and Bournemouth East & Christchurch instead of attempting a 'minimum change' option once again, but the reduction in seats would certainly provide them with a better excuse. Devon might end up very different in reality. The Commission seems to prefer 2 seats in Plymouth proper instead of 3 for 'Greater Plymouth' (and thus SW Devon disappearing) for whatever reason. There's a slight ward swap in Exeter so that it takes as many electors as possible. North Devon can stand alone but it makes things easier to add to it, though Commissioners rejected that case recently so might insist on creating headaches for themselves elsewhere by leaving it intact. Perhaps I should've gone for Ilfracombe & Torrington and put more of Mid Devon into Central Devon to make it neater. What remains of East Devon is an incoherent mess too but Tiverton & Cullompton doesn't deliver as many electors as Tiverton and Minehead which I wanted to avoid, especially as Devonwall returns on these numbers. To wit: Can't see how you get 6 full seats out of these unitary divisions, but at least the cross-border constituency doesn't need to take in Launceston this time. Not a fan of the St Austell seat stretching all the way to the top coast, but needs must. Last but not least, my old home. Most of the Taunton surrounds not actually being in the Taunton seat isn't great, but it's the price you pay for making Bridgwater tidier and rejecting the idea of putting Minehead in with either Barnstaple or Tivvy. Cary not being in the same constituency as Somerton or Wincanton would baffle five of my relatives, but the rules are rigid, so it is what it is. Elsewhere you still get a tighter Weston than at present, a 'Mendip Hills' seat and Hanham from South Glos being put in with part of BANES, whose mining villages also end up with Frome like in the actual last Review.
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Post by Foggy on Mar 17, 2024 21:48:13 GMT
Had a quick stab at this for the South West the other night: Bristol you can just about make work, but in practice you'd almost certainly end up with ward splits and/or a seat crossing with BANES or North Somerset and not just South Glos. North of that, you'd probably want to split wards as well to avoid seeing Cheltenham cleft in twain. Could always add a couple of wards from Stroud district to the Forest of Dean because they're next to each other on the map, but on the ground that's obviously a far worse option. The seat based on Cotswold district ends up fairly neat, mind. Moving nextdoor, we find that a single ward swap works for Swindon, Chippenham moving into North Wilts and therefore usurping its name, and a cross-county seat required at the bottom end instead of the top. Which was an option in the actual 650-seat review as well, I suppose.
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Post by Foggy on Mar 15, 2024 19:21:55 GMT
Rotherham, Wales (2024). Dominic Beck, Labour to Independent. Rotherham, Wales (2024). Marnie Havard, Labour to Independent. Independents for Wales, eh? Is the Borough Council about to get its own Plaid group?
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Post by Foggy on Mar 13, 2024 18:48:04 GMT
Elections to the Parliament of Catalonia have been announced for the 12th of May.
Yes, that *is* just four weeks before all of Spain goes to the polls again for the European elections. Expect turnout in the pesky regions to be especially low for the latter vote.
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Post by Foggy on Mar 2, 2024 0:46:52 GMT
This year's Tasmanian election will see the number of seats will increase from 25 to 35. But as ever, the constituencies remain the same as the federal ones, meaning the Hare quota in each will be much lower. Possibly good news for the state Green Party? This only applies to the lower house in both cases, of course. Uniquely in Tas, the Legislative Council has 15 divisions whose seats are never filled at the same time as general elections to the Assembly. Busy month elsewhere Down Under as Brisbane holds local elections – as does the rest of Queensland, but they're officially non-partisan – plus there's a state by-election due in Dunstan (Adelaide) and an imminent federal one in Dunkley (Melbourne).
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Post by Foggy on Mar 2, 2024 0:38:47 GMT
By the way, the football club ceases to be an issue today - they've been taken over by the owners of MVV Maastricht (of course). So Rochdalians can safely go back to not watching their football club. Cor, 60% for Leave and they still can't escape Maastricht! I see the borough still seems to be twinned with Bielefeld too. Would've been a lot funnier if Arminia had taken over the 'Dale and then we could all start to pretend that it doesn't exist.
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Post by Foggy on Feb 23, 2024 21:30:29 GMT
Of note regarding media coverage: the regional public service broadcaster TVG invited both Sumar and Podemos to the TV debates. The former still managed to finish behind the shut-out Vox (2.2% vs 1.9%) while the latter finished eighth in the popular vote, behind even DO and animal rights party PACMA (who in turn had received even less coverage than micro-parties Common Space and For a Fairer World) – specifically 1,519 votes ahead of Podemos, thus cementing their recent status as 'best of the rest' in various Spanish polls.
Meanwhile elections to the Basque Parliament, which usually take place at the same time as Galician ones, have been announced for the 21st of April.
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Post by Foggy on Feb 23, 2024 21:10:53 GMT
I'd call the NE Shropshire seat 'Drayton' – we all know where the *real* Wellington is!
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Post by Foggy on Jan 29, 2024 22:48:43 GMT
Oh, I've been busy! GWBWI Con +51SNP +5 Lab +2 LDm -7 Grn -17 Go on, Rishi: strike while the iron's hot. Catch them on the hop! You know you want to...
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Bath
Jan 14, 2024 6:26:42 GMT
Post by Foggy on Jan 14, 2024 6:26:42 GMT
Thanks to @froome for his efforts with that write-up, but as an alumnus who took modules in both Editing and Proofreading, I feel the need to point out that the city's uppermost higher education institution (literally – it's not just in one corner on a map, it's very much atop a hill) is always formally referred to as The University of Bath, never simply 'Bath University'. Such tiny terminological differences allow confusingly-similar names to be used by other universities, seemingly mostly in North America - such as York University in Toronto vs University of York where one might reasonably expect it to be.
Then of course there are those that seem, at least at first glance, outlandishly misleading such as Miami University in... Ohio!
Oh, quite. It's not wrong, just a question of how formal @froome wants the piece to be. I met students enrolled at the English York while on an overseas semester in Spain and delighted in asking them what Toronto was like this time of year.
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Jan 6, 2024 2:16:53 GMT
Post by Foggy on Jan 6, 2024 2:16:53 GMT
Thanks to @froome for his efforts with that write-up, but as an alumnus who took modules in both Editing and Proofreading, I feel the need to point out that the city's uppermost higher education institution (literally – it's not just in one corner on a map, it's very much atop a hill) is always formally referred to as The University of Bath, never simply 'Bath University'.
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Post by Foggy on Dec 19, 2023 18:20:23 GMT
I'll be visiting friends in both Highbridge and Bridgwater before the end of the month but then might not set foot in either town next year, for the first time since 1986. Not as some kind of deliberate boycott, it's just that I won't have a base there anymore and don't fancy paying to stay at the Isleport Travelodge.
Can't help but feel it's sad to see the area might be getting bluer just as much of the rest of the country comes to its senses, though I appreciate both seats were won on a split vote with the usual pitiful turnout.
As for the gender identity of the Labour candidate: yep, it's the kind of place where Pride-on-Sea have had to be very courageous just to hold public gatherings. I wonder how many of the 149 voters were unaware of the fact, and how many are quietly accepting that trans rights are human rights.
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Post by Foggy on Dec 19, 2023 18:12:27 GMT
That was already known when the City Council election was rerun earlier this year. Not got a detailed answer to John's second question except to say that clearly the wheels of German bureaucracy and justice move far too slowly.
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