Turkey does not invade Cyprus in 1974.

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The junta was already vulnerable to internal problems and would most likely have fallen before long anyway - events in Cyprus were merely the final trigger. I don't see this changing its trajectory towards the EU and Euro, and Greece wasn't fundamental to the Euro crisis, it was merely the biggest symptom of it.

What would have happened to Cyprus itself had Turkey not invaded is a more interesting question. Presumably they would still have tried to sponsor some form of parallel state, but with a less clean boundary line. You would probably have seen the continuation of a nominally unified island but with a much weaker and more unstable polity than the Greek Cypriots established south of the Green Line. Eventually civil conflict may have petered out but it's hard to envisage a faster path to a political settlement, rather that the bargaining hand of the Turkish Cypriots would have been a little weaker.

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Feb 23, 2017 11:07:50 GMT @strinity said:

The junta was already vulnerable to internal problems and would most likely have fallen before long anyway - events in Cyprus were merely the final trigger. I don't see this changing its trajectory towards the EU and Euro, and Greece wasn't fundamental to the Euro crisis, it was merely the biggest symptom of it.

What would have happened to Cyprus itself had Turkey not invaded is a more interesting question. Presumably they would still have tried to sponsor some form of parallel state, but with a less clean boundary line. You would probably have seen the continuation of a nominally unified island but with a much weaker and more unstable polity than the Greek Cypriots established south of the Green Line. Eventually civil conflict may have petered out but it's hard to envisage a faster path to a political settlement, rather that the bargaining hand of the Turkish Cypriots would have been a little weaker.

Only 18% of the population was Turkish Cypriots. Without a Turkish invasion they would have been easily suppressed, and many would have ended up emigrating. 

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They hadn't been easily suppressed before the invasion though - their status would still have produced some kind of political crisis ultimately, and being a very young state it is unlikely that its institutions would have had the resilience to manage it.

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Feb 23, 2017 13:21:34 GMT @odo said:

Feb 23, 2017 11:07:50 GMT @strinity said:

The junta was already vulnerable to internal problems and would most likely have fallen before long anyway - events in Cyprus were merely the final trigger. I don't see this changing its trajectory towards the EU and Euro, and Greece wasn't fundamental to the Euro crisis, it was merely the biggest symptom of it.

What would have happened to Cyprus itself had Turkey not invaded is a more interesting question. Presumably they would still have tried to sponsor some form of parallel state, but with a less clean boundary line. You would probably have seen the continuation of a nominally unified island but with a much weaker and more unstable polity than the Greek Cypriots established south of the Green Line. Eventually civil conflict may have petered out but it's hard to envisage a faster path to a political settlement, rather that the bargaining hand of the Turkish Cypriots would have been a little weaker.

Only 18% of the population was Turkish Cypriots. Without a Turkish invasion they would have been easily suppressed, and many would have ended up emigrating. 

Turkey would still have invaded, particularly as pictures of slaughtered men women and children reached mainland observers. The resulting "peacekeeping" operation would then have resulted in many more Greek Cypriot deaths. Any future attempt at re unifying the island would then have had no chance - unlike the situation now which has a better than fair chance if both sides really want it. As for outside intervention I doubt the US with their commitment in Vietnam would have been happy or willing to take on the Turks or Greeks.

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Feb 23, 2017 10:40:22 GMT @boogieeck said:

many thanks for showing an interest in my holiday destination. Also, gratified that my interpretation of historical facts appears to have generally been accepted as accurate.

But what if had not happened? Either Turkey chooses not to invade, or does, but is repulsed.

Fairly easy to envisage, they had a recently elected democratic government. The USA had warned off Turkey years earlier when Turkish Cypriots were victims of ethnic violence, threatening to offer no assistance if Russia then attacked Turkey. So much for NATO solidarity and you thought Trump was original? This time Kissenger warned the Uk to keep out. the UK had the means on the island to repel a Turkish invasion.

So, the invasion does not happen. The Greek coup is successful. First up, the Greek Junta survives, certainly far longer. As a result, surely, EU membership is delayed, perhaps cancelled, Euro membership perhaps not offered. Game that one for an hour or so. The Euro survives the 2008 crash unscathed, Cameron does not offer a referendum, alt right/celebrity/anti establishment politics does not take off, Trump gets eliminated in week 2 of the GOP primary and President Hilary Clinton by now has ordered the shooting down of Russian jets over Syria and the ramming of a Chinese Frigate in the east China sea.

On track record, the ethnic cleansing would have been the other way around and far less civilized than the "pack a bag" that the Greek side are still moaning on about. Again this delays, perhaps cancels EU membership.

When Sebrinica gets surrounded, maybe the idea of Orthodox Christians murdering Muslims would not seem so fanciful and maybe a more robust army than the Dutch would have been given the job. As a result, this great propaganda victory for Violent Islam is missing, 9/11 does not happen, Iraq is not invaded.

I go to Israel for my second honeymoon and write a series of self indulgent threads about how grand Israel is.

Unless others imagine it differently.

Israel is not half as grand as you and they think it is. It is no different politically or morally than any other state in today's world.