jamie
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Post by jamie on Feb 14, 2017 11:06:56 GMT
These do seem remarkable figures for the SPD. How reliable has German polling been in the past? And can anyone explain it? Is Schulz really so popular? (I've no reason to dislike him, I just wonder why it has taken the SPD so long to find a leader who can have this electoral effect, if it is really down to him) Yes, although there's always a first. Schultz is more popular than his predecessor and is enjoying a honeymoon period. Really it all depends on whether it lasts.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 14, 2017 11:11:31 GMT
I think quite a few people in my party would be fibbing if they claimed they weren't following these poll developments with interest.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2017 12:05:38 GMT
I think quite a few people in my party would be fibbing if they claimed they weren't following these poll developments with interest. Are we sure the Russians aren't hacking the polls to produce a "result"?
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john07
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Post by john07 on Feb 14, 2017 16:47:18 GMT
I think quite a few people in my party would be fibbing if they claimed they weren't following these poll developments with interest. Are we sure the Russians aren't hacking the polls to produce a "result"? They probably are. They would undoubtedly favour AfD. Anyone but Schulz or Merkel. They seem to be trying to engineer a win for Le Pen (or more realistically Fillon) in France. They would probably prefer 5 star in Italy to anyone remotely sensible.
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Post by BossMan on Feb 14, 2017 17:44:00 GMT
We don't know how long Schultz's honeymoon is going to last. But I think it is time CDU/CSU also had a new leader, if only to add a new twist to developments in the polls. She's been Chancellor for 11 years, after all.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 14, 2017 18:00:23 GMT
It isn't exactly a honeymoon period; more that he has established himself as a credible alternative and the voters are responding accordingly (this is how German politics tends to work). Of course he has to maintain this now.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Feb 14, 2017 20:15:20 GMT
These do seem remarkable figures for the SPD. How reliable has German polling been in the past? At Landtag elections, some of the figures for minor parties have been way off, and if anything the SPD have often been slightly underestimated too. For federal elections, polls have been surprisingly reliable... but as others have pointed out, in previous years the Russians would not have had such a strong operation at trying to influence them. We don't know how long Schultz's honeymoon is going to last. But I think it is time CDU/CSU also had a new leader, if only to add a new twist to developments in the polls. She's been Chancellor for 11 years, after all. Merkel finally announced she'd stand again a couple of months ago following much speculation, which was back when she still expected her main opponent to be Sigmar Gabriel or someone else equally uninspiring. I believe she was re-confirmed as Chancellor candidate again within the past week (or at least, the CSU agreed to continue backing her).
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 17, 2017 17:23:05 GMT
Poll out giving the SPD a ten point lead, apparently Surely an outlier, but......
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Feb 17, 2017 17:27:35 GMT
Poll out giving the SPD a ten point lead, apparently Surely an outlier, but...... That was the 'unloaded' version, whatever that means...
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 17, 2017 19:45:23 GMT
It isn't exactly a honeymoon period; more that he has established himself as a credible alternative and the voters are responding accordingly (this is how German politics tends to work). Of course he has to maintain this now. I'd be interested to know how the AfD affects each party. My current suspicion is that it hurts CDU out east, SPD in the Bonner Republik.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 18, 2017 1:27:50 GMT
SPD lead is bigger using unweighed data (make of that what you will).
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 18, 2017 1:46:39 GMT
Poll out giving the SPD a ten point lead, apparently Surely an outlier, but...... The way in which Merkel is failing to learn the lesson of Thatcher staying on too long just baffles me.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 18, 2017 2:00:35 GMT
Poll out giving the SPD a ten point lead, apparently Surely an outlier, but...... That was the 'unloaded' version, whatever that means... No weighing, just raw numbers.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 18, 2017 18:53:43 GMT
Oh if only Die Links were to go below 5 per cent and win no direct mandates...can but dream.
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 18, 2017 18:57:13 GMT
Oh if only Die Links were to go below 5 per cent and win no direct mandates...can but dream. That is your number one priority for the election?? ** ** of course this is a "genuine question"
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 18, 2017 19:06:27 GMT
The way in which Merkel is failing to learn the lesson of Thatcher staying on too long just baffles me. Easily explained: she's Kohl's protégé. He carried on forever and ever until he finally lost...
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 18, 2017 19:07:44 GMT
I'd be interested to know how the AfD affects each party. My current suspicion is that it hurts CDU out east, SPD in the Bonner Republik. Compared to a generic competitive federal election or compared to the last federal election?
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 18, 2017 19:11:34 GMT
The way in which Merkel is failing to learn the lesson of Thatcher staying on too long just baffles me. Easily explained: she's Kohl's protégé. He carried on forever and ever until he finally lost...
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 18, 2017 21:29:47 GMT
Oh if only Die Links were to go below 5 per cent and win no direct mandates...can but dream. That is your number one priority for the election?? ** ** of course this is a "genuine question" It isn't, but I like to think that I'm reasonably consistent in my distaste for authoritarian types. Being a recovering Germanist and a one-time student of DDR literature, that party fills me with particular anger, especially as so many within continue to be apologists for murder.
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 18, 2017 21:32:30 GMT
That is your number one priority for the election?? ** ** of course this is a "genuine question" It isn't, but I like to think that I'm reasonably consistent in my distaste for authoritarian types. Being a recovering Germanist and a one-time student of DDR literature, that party fills me with particular anger, especially as so many within continue to be apologists for murder. Maybe the current Schulz lead SPD surge will reduce them to peanuts! I'll get my ticket to Woodstock.....
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