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Post by pragmaticidealist on Jan 26, 2020 9:28:09 GMT
It’s debatable how much influence newspaper endorsements carry nowadays (even back in 2004 the paper that covered George W Bush’s Texas ranch endorsed John Kerry) but the Register carries a little more clout in Iowa in that it’s read Statewide rather than just in Des Moines. The same can probably be said about the Manchester Union-Leader in New Hampshire. The Union Leader has endorsed Kobuchar. Were I being cynical, I would suggest that Klobuchar is a useful candidate to latch onto for newspaper editors who don't wish to take a side in the likely upcoming Biden-Sanders war.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Jan 26, 2020 9:59:51 GMT
Were I being cynical, I would suggest that Klobuchar is a useful candidate to latch onto for newspaper editors who don't wish to take a side in the likely upcoming Biden-Sanders war. Yes, it's a safe bet that won't annoy many readers or advertisers. But I suspect that prestige is also part of it. Most political journalists come from a segment that would prefer Warren or Buttigieg (the candidates or the "educated classes") to the two old men and their populism, but their campaigns seem to be failing, and backing Klobuchar looks better than endorsing a major candidate who keeps tanking, which would underline how unimportant your paper's endorsement is. DMR likely has more faith in the value of their endorsement so going with Warren makes sense for them.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Jan 26, 2020 12:59:19 GMT
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jan 26, 2020 13:04:32 GMT
That might actually backfire by making Buttigieg more attractive to Sanders supporters.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Jan 26, 2020 13:43:44 GMT
That might actually backfire by making Buttigieg more attractive to Sanders supporters. I doubt it, it illustrates how far Buttigieg has travelled since he was a young idealistic progressive and - especially - since he started his campaign with a significantly more progressive platform. Buttigieg is the most loathed opponent among Sander supporters because he is viewed as an unprincipled careerist and hypocrite who pretended to be a progressive but will say and do anything to get ahead and attract support from the donor class and this plays into that narrative.
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Post by nelson on Jan 26, 2020 13:54:39 GMT
Yang at 5% in NH poll, which gives him the 4th qualifying poll he needed for the debate. Solid lead to Sanders.
EDIT: It's also a qualifying poll for Gabbard, but she needs three more and it's only in NH that she has enough support to get qualifying polls so I doubt she'll make it.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Jan 26, 2020 14:43:25 GMT
Fox News national poll with Biden only ahead by 3 points. Biden 26% (-4) Sanders 23% (+3) Warren 14% (+1) Bloomberg 10% (+5) Buttigieg 7% (nc) Yang 5% (+2) Klobuchar 3% (-2) Steyer 3% Patrick 1% Bennet 0% Delaney 0% Gabbard 0% www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-sanders-gains-among-democrats-biden-still-best-against-trump... Fox News also has a story about Obama considering to intervene to stop Sanders (but it's rather vague and ofc Fox aren't the most likely media to have good sources in Obama's inner circle)
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Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2020 15:23:08 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2020 17:07:03 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2020 17:12:41 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2020 22:20:22 GMT
Changes from Oct Biden up 5 Bernie up 10
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Post by curiousliberal on Jan 27, 2020 2:29:53 GMT
There's been a rule change in the Iowa caucuses this year - supporters of viable candidates (those who've cleared the 15% threshold in a particular precinct) can no longer switch their choice (though supporters of non-viable candidates may still do so). This prevents people supporting a candidate well over the threshold from moving to make someone else who is just under it viable. Apparently, some caucusgoers who aren't familiar with all of the arcane rules used to profit from this because they didn't initially pick their first choice, but their first "popular" choice on the assumption that their first choice would be non-viable. Whenever this assumption was proven wrong, they opted for their favourite candidate.
This could be relevant if it's assumed that 'x candidate can't win here' in a particular precinct. See: Klobuchar, Warren and Yang supporters. In addition to the polls posted above, there have been more early state and national polls that are favourable to Sanders; Emerson's numbers have him with a 7 point lead over Biden in Iowa, and the 538 average now has Sanders ahead despite its factoring in of the dubious Breitbart poll (their model predicts Biden will win IA but lose NH and NV, but that's because it hasn't yet been updated with their polling average's newest projection). Bloomberg has also done very well at the national level, to the point of surpassing Buttigieg in most of the aggregators projecting averages. Yang has also qualified for the next debate thanks to semi-decent polling, but he's not seeing a sustained surge.
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Post by nelson on Jan 27, 2020 5:02:23 GMT
Emerson has big Sanders lead and Klobuchar in 3rd.
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Post by nelson on Jan 27, 2020 6:18:24 GMT
Klobuchar needs to be polling close to 15% in the final Selzer/Des Moines Register poll (published on 1 February) to have a chance, at least at 12%. I she's perceived as a viable statewide she will attract more support, if not her support will drift to Biden and (to a lesser degree, and only if she's still viable) Warren.
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Post by nelson on Jan 27, 2020 7:16:18 GMT
Warren doing well in the Super Tuesday states according to this one, maybe she still has a chance?
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jan 27, 2020 7:55:30 GMT
Warren doing well in the Super Tuesday states according to this one, maybe she still has a chance? The Democrat establishment will want a back-up for Biden to be kept in the race as long as possible.
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Post by nelson on Jan 27, 2020 8:46:09 GMT
The Democrat establishment will want a back-up for Biden to be kept in the race as long as possible. Warren is only acceptable to part of the establishment and keeping her in the race increases the chance of a brokered convention, which could result in a Sanders/Warren unity ticket. She is also not a potential backup for Biden as many of his voters prefer Sanders to her and she's a bad fit culturally for working class whites and most PoC. Sanders would always win a two horse race against Warren (turnout among moderates would simply drop if they were the only viable candidates). Their best chance of stopping Sanders (if he wins IA/NH) is to make it a two-horse race as early as possible which will force the anti-Sanders majority to coalesce around Biden (preferably before Super Tuesday). The "back-up for Biden" idea helps Sanders at the moment. There isn't really time for another candidate to unite the establishment vote anymore as 41% of the delegates are allocated on or before Super Tuesday. Even if the Democrats don't do FPTP Sanders will benefit immensely from being the frontrunner in a fragmented field. The only possible exception I can see is if Klobuchar somehow pulls off a miracle and wins Iowa since she is so well placed to replace Biden (by checking the electability, experience and balanced policies boxes) and is acceptable to "moderate progressives", but even then the anti-Sanders vote would likely remain too fragmented (unless Biden actually drops out, which he won't pre-Super Tuesday no matter how bad he polls in the three first states, only a very poor result in SC might convince him to do that). The form "Democrat" is only used by hard right types in the US and is an annoying slur, please use Democratic.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Jan 27, 2020 11:18:36 GMT
The Democrat establishment will want a back-up for Biden to be kept in the race as long as possible. The form "Democrat" is only used by hard right types in the US and is an annoying slur, please use Democratic. I've always found that to be...just simply bizarre.
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Post by nelson on Jan 27, 2020 20:03:11 GMT
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Post by nelson on Jan 27, 2020 20:17:41 GMT
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