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Post by London Lad on Nov 16, 2019 13:30:52 GMT
Labour's nearest equivalent in all the above is arguably Yvette Cooper? That doesn't give any confidence that the the Dems are going to win next November..
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 16, 2019 13:33:06 GMT
Why? They aren't going to pick Harris.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Nov 16, 2019 13:54:23 GMT
Labour's nearest equivalent in all the above is arguably Yvette Cooper? Just to be silly... Biden - Alan Johnson Sanders - Jon Trickett Warren - Emily Thornberry Buttgieg - Stephen Morgan Gabbard - Kate Hoey Klobuchar - Meg Hillier
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 16, 2019 15:05:34 GMT
I'd love for Harris to link up with Buttigieg and be his VP candidate - I think together they could slay the old men and Warren, but she won't stoop to that I think... Where Harris is polling at the moment, she still has a credible (long odds, but credible) chance of winning the primary. She doesn't have no strategy - it seems to be all-in on Iowa - but it's not great strategy. For me the low point was the TikTok ad a few weeks ago. Buttigieg seems like an unconventional VP pick for Sanders and Biden and is probably more likely to be the nominee than VP, but there needs to be a universe in which he is the VP pick and debates Mike Pence. That would be a beautiful thing. Of those who didn't enter, I'd argue Sherrod Brown would have added the most to the field, as someone who is sort of pro-tariff/protetionist but also not *seen* as too economically left-wing (personally, I despise a lot of the policies he's championed as they verge deep into kinds of social engineering that should be anathema to liberals, but he's quite a charismatic guy with an apparent midwestern appeal so I would rate him as a candidate). After that, the only others that spring to mind are Oprah, who'd start with massive cross-party appeal (Michelle Obama would have more, but her book very strongly implies she'd never consider running) and Al Gore, the only ex-nominee who could launch a credible bid as someone who hadn't lost a general election (and had a formidable profile re: climate change). I suppose there's also room for someone who could unite the party and thereby earn a 'party decides' effect, but it's hard to think of who that could be besides someone already in the race or one of the names mentioned above. Tim Kaine, Eric Holder or Andrew Cuomo, maybe? I don't see it happening for them now, and nor does any of them have the money to do it the way Bloomberg plans to if Biden fails. In any case, someone who relies on that is not someone who the primary electorate was initially crying out for; they're just a beneficiary of primary dynamics.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 16, 2019 21:15:15 GMT
I'd love for Harris to link up with Buttigieg and be his VP candidate - I think together they could slay the old men and Warren, but she won't stoop to that I think... Of those who didn't enter, I'd argue Sherrod Brown would have added the most to the field, as someone who is sort of pro-tariff/protetionist but also not *seen* as too economically left-wing (personally, I despise a lot of the policies he's championed as they verge deep into kinds of social engineering that should be anathema to liberals, but he's quite a charismatic guy with an apparent midwestern appeal so I would rate him as a candidate). After that, the only others that spring to mind are Oprah, who'd start with massive cross-party appeal (Michelle Obama would have more, but her book very strongly implies she'd never consider running) and Al Gore, the only ex-nominee who could launch a credible bid as someone who hadn't lost a general election (and had a formidable profile re: climate change). I suppose there's also room for someone who could unite the party and thereby earn a 'party decides' effect, but it's hard to think of who that could be besides someone already in the race or one of the names mentioned above. Tim Kaine, Eric Holder or Andrew Cuomo, maybe? I don't see it happening for them now, and nor does any of them have the money to do it the way Bloomberg plans to if Biden fails. In any case, someone who relies on that is not someone who the primary electorate was initially crying out for; they're just a beneficiary of primary dynamics. I don't think those suggestions take the current moral and cultural climate on the liberal side of the American culture war into consideration. No-noes if you want to win the Democratic nomination: - extreme personal wealth (billionaires need not apply) - being an investment banker or hedge fund manager - racist or homophobic statements or acts, incl. blackface - credible (or even somewhat credible) accusations of violence or harassment against women - being a celebrity (Trump discredited that idea) Sherrod Brown has been credibly accused (at least by post-#MeToo standards) of violence and harassment against an ex-wife, and the fact that she has since walked back those statements isn't enough in the current climate. That was allegedly the main reason he didn't ran for president in the first place. Andrew Cuomo is viewed as a traitor by the base for relying on Republicans and so-called " Independent Democrats" for years, Holder is an authoritarian with no appeal (in a year where criminal justice reform is a major priority) and also blamed for not prosecuting the big banks after the financial crisis, Kaine was part of a losing ticket (and he is the quintessential "boring white guy" at a time when the base wants diversity), there is a strong desire for a return to serious/normal politics and no appetite for running a celebrity, Gore is viewed as a hypocrite (his lifestyle isn't exactly carbon neutral) and a has-been.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 16, 2019 21:34:27 GMT
Of those who didn't enter, I'd argue Sherrod Brown would have added the most to the field, as someone who is sort of pro-tariff/protetionist but also not *seen* as too economically left-wing (personally, I despise a lot of the policies he's championed as they verge deep into kinds of social engineering that should be anathema to liberals, but he's quite a charismatic guy with an apparent midwestern appeal so I would rate him as a candidate). After that, the only others that spring to mind are Oprah, who'd start with massive cross-party appeal (Michelle Obama would have more, but her book very strongly implies she'd never consider running) and Al Gore, the only ex-nominee who could launch a credible bid as someone who hadn't lost a general election (and had a formidable profile re: climate change). I suppose there's also room for someone who could unite the party and thereby earn a 'party decides' effect, but it's hard to think of who that could be besides someone already in the race or one of the names mentioned above. Tim Kaine, Eric Holder or Andrew Cuomo, maybe? I don't see it happening for them now, and nor does any of them have the money to do it the way Bloomberg plans to if Biden fails. In any case, someone who relies on that is not someone who the primary electorate was initially crying out for; they're just a beneficiary of primary dynamics. I don't think those suggestions take the current moral and cultural climate on the liberal side of the American culture war into consideration. No-noes if you want to win the Democratic nomination: - extreme personal wealth (billionaires need not apply) - being an investment banker or hedge fund manager - racist or homophobic statements or acts, incl. blackface - credible (or even somewhat credible) accusations of violence or harassment against women - being a celebrity (Trump discredited that idea) Sherrod Brown has been credibly accused (at least by post-#MeToo standards) of violence and harassment against an ex-wife, and the fact that she has since walked back those statements isn't enough in the current climate. That was allegedly the main reason he didn't ran for president in the first place. Andrew Cuomo is viewed as a traitor by the base for relying on Republicans and so-called " Independent Democrats" for years, Holder is an authoritarian with no appeal (in a year where criminal justice reform is a major priority) and also blamed for not prosecuting the big banks after the financial crisis, Kaine was part of a losing ticket (and he is the quintessential "boring white guy" at a time when the base wants diversity), there is a strong desire for a return to serious/normal politics and no appetite for running a celebrity, Gore is viewed as a hypocrite (his lifestyle isn't exactly carbon neutral) and a has-been. Brown would be fine because his wife has walked them back and the #MeToo discourse has shifted somewhat post-Al Franken (and to a lesser extent, post-Katie Hill). If it hadn't, Biden would have taken something of a hit from the allegations; the polls indicate that he didn't, or at least not one of the kind he did for his stance on the Hyde amendment. Cuomo gets plaudits for the frequent clashes with Trump. Kaine gets some for being around at the top tier of Democratic politics for a long time, winning praise from Obama and having been on Hillary Clinton's ticket. Gore is increasingly viewed as 'that guy who was right all along' (see: South Park) and Twitter accusations of hypocrisy are a poor means to judge the wider primary electorate by. I once might have agreed that Gore could be seen as a has-been, but he's younger than 75, which seems to be the age that 'is [x] too old?' becomes a (seemingly not insurmountable) problem these days. Edit: spelling mistake.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Nov 17, 2019 19:19:36 GMT
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Post by London Lad on Nov 19, 2019 13:53:57 GMT
I quite like him, I was listening to him the other night and he sounded quite sensible (unlike some of the other leading candidates). But apparently he has no chance of winning as he as zero support among the black and Hispanic community.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 19, 2019 13:56:28 GMT
I quite like him, I was listening to him the other night and he sounded quite sensible (unlike some of the other leading candidates). But apparently he has no chance of winning as he as zero support among the black and Hispanic community. He seems to have a bit more than zero support in the Hispanic community - or at least, a semi-decent approval rating and room to grow. In a way, he is a bit like John Kerry for that demographic. He is really struggling with black people. If he becomes the 'designated moderate', the more progressive of the remaining candidates will likely be on course to get the nomination by appealing more to a coalition of particularly progressive white voters and black voters.
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 19, 2019 13:58:43 GMT
It wouldn't surprise me if he became the VP nomination
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 19, 2019 13:59:50 GMT
It wouldn't surprise me if he became the VP nomination Difficult to see who'd pick him as a VP besides Warren. Edit: unless it's a contested convention, a Harris or Yang win (outside chances), or a victory for someone currently not in the race (extremely unlikely). In the case of a contested convention, a VP pick on the basis of 'give me your delegate votes for the VP slot' is plausible.
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 19, 2019 14:04:37 GMT
It wouldn't surprise me if he became the VP nomination Difficult to see who'd pick him as a VP besides Warren. . That's what I was thinking.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 19, 2019 14:11:59 GMT
It wouldn't surprise me if he became the VP nomination It's generally agreed that the days where the Democrats could have two white men on the ticket are over and two men would also cause a backlash from parts of their base. Sanders and Biden would have to pick a woman, preferable "of colour", so most likely Duckworth, Cortes Masto or Abrams (Harris has been too hostile to Biden and is too right wing for Sanders and she's run an awful campaign). Warren would likely pick a non-white male (e.g. Castro) or someone who aligns with her ideologically (which could be a woman, she works well with Cortes Masto).
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 19, 2019 14:14:55 GMT
It wouldn't surprise me if he became the VP nomination It's generally agreed that the days where the Democrats could have two white men on the ticket are over and two men would also cause a backlash from parts of their base. Sanders and Biden would have to pick a woman, preferable "of colour", so most likely Duckworth, Cortes Masto or Abrams (Harris has been too hostile to Biden and is too right wing for Sanders and she's run an awful campaign). Warren would likely pick a non-white male (e.g. Castro) or someone who aligns with her ideologically (which could be a woman, she works well with Cortes Masto). I disagree that Warren would feel compelled to go for ideological conformity or 'outward' diversity'. Diversity of opinion can help sell a ticket, especially if Buttigieg could be presented as a moderating force. That said, and to some extent this also applies re: the days of two white men on the ticket being over - once upon a time, the idea of picking two young Southerners for a ticket was also a wacky one. Tickets don't always have to play it safe/balanced if they're pitching for specific voters, though I don't see Sanders or Biden picking Buttigieg.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 19, 2019 14:30:19 GMT
It's generally agreed that the days where the Democrats could have two white men on the ticket are over and two men would also cause a backlash from parts of their base. Sanders and Biden would have to pick a woman, preferable "of colour", so most likely Duckworth, Cortes Masto or Abrams (Harris has been too hostile to Biden and is too right wing for Sanders and she's run an awful campaign). Warren would likely pick a non-white male (e.g. Castro) or someone who aligns with her ideologically (which could be a woman, she works well with Cortes Masto). I disagree that Warren would feel compelled to go for ideological conformity or 'outward' diversity'. Diversity of opinion can help sell a ticket, especially if Buttigieg could be presented as a moderating force. That said, and to some extent this also applies re: the days of two white men on the ticket being over - once upon a time, the idea of picking two young Southerners for a ticket was also a wacky one. Tickets don't always have to play it safe/balanced if they're pitching for specific voters, though I don't see Sanders or Biden picking Buttigieg. I think that underestimates the strength of identity politics within the Democratic Party (and on the liberal side of the culture war in general) and the desire of 70+ candidates to have a VP with broadly similar views in case they won't be able to serve a full term.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 20, 2019 16:50:20 GMT
Wayne Messam has suspended his campaign, a grifter who hardly ran an active campaign in the first place. That leaves 18 candidates (incl. Bloomberg and Patrick). Ten of them will participate in tonight's debate in Atlanta:
Biden Sanders Warren Buttigieg Klobuchar Harris Booker Gabbard Yang Steyer
Castro is the most prominent name who didn't made the cut.
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Post by greenchristian on Nov 20, 2019 16:58:51 GMT
Wayne Messam has suspended his campaign, a grifter who hardly ran an active campaign in the first place. There I was thinking that I'd actually heard of all the candidates...
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 20, 2019 19:11:36 GMT
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 20, 2019 19:26:15 GMT
Presumably they did comparisons for Trump against all the leading Dem contenders - or is there a reason for the selective nature of these polls?
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 20, 2019 19:29:07 GMT
Presumably they did comparisons for Trump against all the leading Dem contenders - or is there a reason for the selective nature of these polls? They're fairly ad hoc, but these polls tend to ask questions for the top 2-4 candidates (according to polling) at a given time. I'd be interested to see the sample size for this one - there have been some appallingly low ones in this electoral cycle.
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