nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 20, 2019 19:29:27 GMT
Presumably they did comparisons for Trump against all the leading Dem contenders - or is there a reason for the selective nature of these polls? Those four are the only ones with a realistic shot at the nomination. No point in polling any of the others.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 20, 2019 19:31:59 GMT
Presumably they did comparisons for Trump against all the leading Dem contenders - or is there a reason for the selective nature of these polls? Those four are the only ones with a realistic shot at the nomination. No point in polling any of the others. There's an outside chance for Harris and possibly Yang. Otherwise, I agree there's no path unless you simultaneously have the resources to self-fund a Super Tuesday operation without winning early states and the ability to unite the party behind you after said early states without winning them. Michelle Obama might be able to do this. Bloomberg has the cash, but I don't think he'll be able to rope in enough party grandees.
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 20, 2019 19:34:56 GMT
Presumably they did comparisons for Trump against all the leading Dem contenders - or is there a reason for the selective nature of these polls? Those four are the only ones with a realistic shot at the nomination. No point in polling any of the others. Ha! my bad. For some reason, i thought each one was a poll from a different state! And I had my glasses on.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 20, 2019 19:51:33 GMT
Those four are the only ones with a realistic shot at the nomination. No point in polling any of the others. There's an outside chance for Harris and possibly Yang. Otherwise, I agree there's no path unless you simultaneously have the resources to self-fund a Super Tuesday operation without winning early states and the ability to unite the party behind you after said early states without winning them. Michelle Obama might be able to do this. There really isn't at this point. Harris is polling behind Booker in some recent polls and has no base left and her campaign is in tatters. Yang is popular with some young people and Asians, but is generally not taken seriously. Klobuchar probably has the best chance outside the Big 4 and has risen slightly, but she's too far behind. She's trying to attack Buttigieg as unqualified and might pick up some Mid-Western moderates, but not enough to be a factor. Michelle Obama isn't a politician and has never indicated any interest in running, and her entering the race is not a realistic possibility.
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 20, 2019 20:26:02 GMT
There's an outside chance for Harris and possibly Yang. Otherwise, I agree there's no path unless you simultaneously have the resources to self-fund a Super Tuesday operation without winning early states and the ability to unite the party behind you after said early states without winning them. Michelle Obama might be able to do this. There really isn't at this point. Harris is polling behind Booker in some recent polls and has no base left and her campaign is in tatters. Yang is popular with some young people and Asians, but is generally not taken seriously. Klobuchar probably has the best chance outside the Big 4 and has risen slightly, but she's too far behind. She's trying to attack Buttigieg as unqualified and might pick up some Mid-Western moderates, but not enough to be a factor. Michelle Obama isn't a politician and has never indicated any interest in running, and her entering the race is not a realistic possibility. Donald Trump wasn't a politician....
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 20, 2019 20:39:55 GMT
Those four are the only ones with a realistic shot at the nomination. No point in polling any of the others. Ha! my bad. For some reason, i thought each one was a poll from a different state! And I had my glasses on. They actually polled every candidate, but it appears from a very brief scroll through their Twitter they only offered a random selection of 50% of those outside the top four to respondents.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 20, 2019 21:08:11 GMT
There really isn't at this point. Harris is polling behind Booker in some recent polls and has no base left and her campaign is in tatters. Yang is popular with some young people and Asians, but is generally not taken seriously. Klobuchar probably has the best chance outside the Big 4 and has risen slightly, but she's too far behind. She's trying to attack Buttigieg as unqualified and might pick up some Mid-Western moderates, but not enough to be a factor. Michelle Obama isn't a politician and has never indicated any interest in running, and her entering the race is not a realistic possibility. Donald Trump wasn't a politician.... No, but he wanted to be president. Michelle Obama has never expressed even the slightest interest in running for office. There is also a big difference between the primary electorates in the two parties. It's very hard to imagine someone with no political experience (a general, businessman, celebrity etc.) winning the Democratic nomination.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 20, 2019 21:29:53 GMT
Donald Trump wasn't a politician.... No, but he wanted to be president. Michelle Obama has never expressed even the slightest interest in running for office. There is also a big difference between the primary electorates in the two parties. It's very hard to imagine someone with no political experience (a general, businessman, celebrity etc.) winning the Democratic nomination. My wife has read Obama's book. She tells me that Obama's view is more "totally opposed" rather than "never expressed the slightest interest".
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 20, 2019 21:41:16 GMT
No, but he wanted to be president. Michelle Obama has never expressed even the slightest interest in running for office. There is also a big difference between the primary electorates in the two parties. It's very hard to imagine someone with no political experience (a general, businessman, celebrity etc.) winning the Democratic nomination. My wife has read Obama's book. She tells me that Obama's view is more "totally opposed" rather than "never expressed the slightest interest". Indeed.
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 20, 2019 22:17:51 GMT
Donald Trump wasn't a politician.... No, but he wanted to be president. Michelle Obama has never expressed even the slightest interest in running for office. There is also a big difference between the primary electorates in the two parties. It's very hard to imagine someone with no political experience (a general, businessman, celebrity etc.) winning the Democratic nomination. I do actually agree - mind you it is hard to recall that Trump was initially regarded as a joke candidate
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 20, 2019 22:30:46 GMT
My wife has read Obama's book. She tells me that Obama's view is more "totally opposed" rather than "never expressed the slightest interest". Indeed. Agreed, but the fact that she could pull it off is still worth acknowledging.
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 20, 2019 22:50:00 GMT
Those four are the only ones with a realistic shot at the nomination. No point in polling any of the others. There's an outside chance for Harris and possibly Yang. Otherwise, I agree there's no path unless you simultaneously have the resources to self-fund a Super Tuesday operation without winning early states and the ability to unite the party behind you after said early states without winning them. Michelle Obama might be able to do this. Bloomberg has the cash, but I don't think he'll be able to rope in enough party grandees. Hmm the wife of a former President going up against Trump? What could possibly go wrong?
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Post by London Lad on Nov 21, 2019 0:30:43 GMT
There's an outside chance for Harris and possibly Yang. Otherwise, I agree there's no path unless you simultaneously have the resources to self-fund a Super Tuesday operation without winning early states and the ability to unite the party behind you after said early states without winning them. Michelle Obama might be able to do this. Bloomberg has the cash, but I don't think he'll be able to rope in enough party grandees. Hmm the wife of a former President going up against Trump? What could possibly go wrong? Yeah, but to be fair she hasn't got Hillary's baggage. I suspect that if she did stand it would be a very easy win.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 21, 2019 19:53:04 GMT
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 21, 2019 19:57:46 GMT
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 22, 2019 14:56:46 GMT
New Swayable poll
Registered voters: Biden 27% Sanders 20% Warren 15% Buttigieg 6% Harris 5%
Likely voters: Biden 30% Warren 18% Sanders 17% Buttigieg 7% Harris 5%
In all the polls I have seen Sanders' numbers are higher among RV than LV, so if the turnout models are wrong and more young people and Hispanics turn out than expected he will do substantially better and his campaign has an enormous "war chest" to use on GOTV efforts.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 22, 2019 14:57:53 GMT
New Swayable poll Registered voters: Biden 27% Sanders 20% Warren 15% Buttigieg 6% Harris 5% Likely voters: Biden 30% Warren 18% Sanders 17% Buttigieg 7% Harris 5% In all the polls I have seen Sanders' numbers are higher among RV than LV, so if the turnout models are wrong and more young people and Hispanics turn out than expected he will do substantially better and his campaign has an enormous "war chest" to use on GOTV efforts. Agreed. Some of the older primary polls were using GE turnout for their weightings, which seems open to disaster (and probably under-weights Sanders). Bloomberg formed an exploratory committee yesterday. By the way, pollster analysis of the most recent debate can be found here.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Nov 22, 2019 17:37:53 GMT
Warren reacts to her falling polls by going for a nuclear option:
Not even a majority of registered Democrats support this, so while it’s possible it might help her knock Bernie out, it gives Trump so much ammo come the election that beating her now looks likely IMO.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2019 17:47:09 GMT
Warren reacts to her falling polls by going for a nuclear option: Not even a majority of registered Democrats support this, so while it’s possible it might help he knock Bernie out, it gives Trump so much ammo come the election that beating her now looks likely IMO. Trump will win the popular vote too next time.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 22, 2019 17:56:24 GMT
Warren reacts to her falling polls by going for a nuclear option: Not even a majority of registered Democrats support this, so while it’s possible it might help he knock Bernie out, it gives Trump so much ammo come the election that beating her now looks likely IMO. Trump will win the popular vote too next time. I am increasingly of the view that the Democratic Party is a front organisation for the "Committee to Re-Elect Donald Trump".
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