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Post by afleitch on Jul 29, 2023 9:01:26 GMT
Fixed (see previous post for the map)
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Post by casualobserver on Jul 30, 2023 1:17:57 GMT
Again, if you spot anything else let me know. Please fix the Isle of Sheppey! Most of it seems to have joined the mainland, creating a “Gulf of Swale”, but a small portion has become detached, as if floating towards Essex.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,819
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jul 30, 2023 6:00:54 GMT
Here's a rough map of the notional results. I'm confident of everything from the English Midlands southwards (unless I've made mistakes). Less sure of some in the North country and especially in Scotland and Wales (in particular unsure about the Bangor/Aberconwy thing or whatever its called. Not sure I've seen any meaningful notional results for the Scottish and Welsh seats I've calculated Wales using the similarity index published by the House of Commons and I have Bridgend's replacement going Labour
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 30, 2023 6:50:26 GMT
Here's a rough map of the notional results. I'm confident of everything from the English Midlands southwards (unless I've made mistakes). Less sure of some in the North country and especially in Scotland and Wales (in particular unsure about the Bangor/Aberconwy thing or whatever its called. Not sure I've seen any meaningful notional results for the Scottish and Welsh seats I've calculated Wales using the similarity index published by the House of Commons and I have Bridgend's replacement going Labour Your similarity index is basically worthless as I've pointed out, but looking at the number of voters coming in now from Ogmore, you are quite possibly (accidentally) correct. That was one of the seats I was most unsure about
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weld
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,368
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Post by weld on Aug 14, 2023 8:03:33 GMT
A pretty map if you're a Republican Party supporter, I suppose. New York will soon be blue here.
The GOP lose control in New Hampshire if Dems win the September 19 special election, IIRC.
I'm unaware of the potential impact if Brandon Presley (D) wins the Mississippi governor race.
We likely get new maps in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Wisconsin et al in the near future.
North Carolina is also redoing its current 7-7 map (GOP supermajority, conservative court).
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,073
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Post by maxque on Aug 15, 2023 0:48:13 GMT
A pretty map if you're a Republican Party supporter, I suppose. New York will soon be blue here. The GOP lose control in New Hampshire if Dems win the September 19 special election, IIRC. I'm unaware of the potential impact if Brandon Presley (D) wins the Mississippi governor race. We likely get new maps in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Wisconsin et al in the near future. North Carolina is also redoing its current 7-7 map (GOP supermajority, conservative court). Also, in Florida, yesterday, the plaintiffs and the state made a deal to resurrect the Jacksonville Black majority district against the plaintiffs dropping their lawsuit about Tampa and the Miami area (unsurprising, as DeSantis argument for vetoing it was shot down by the Supreme Court).
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weld
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,368
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Post by weld on Aug 15, 2023 1:43:09 GMT
A pretty map if you're a Republican Party supporter, I suppose. New York will soon be blue here. The GOP lose control in New Hampshire if Dems win the September 19 special election, IIRC. I'm unaware of the potential impact if Brandon Presley (D) wins the Mississippi governor race. We likely get new maps in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Wisconsin et al in the near future. North Carolina is also redoing its current 7-7 map (GOP supermajority, conservative court). Also, in Florida, yesterday, the plaintiffs and the state made a deal to resurrect the Jacksonville Black majority district against the plaintiffs dropping their lawsuit about Tampa and the Miami area (unsurprising, as DeSantis argument for vetoing it was shot down by the Supreme Court). 👀 Ohio was, IIR, redrawn to elect a 93% Republican House delegation (13 GOP with 2 Dems, in Cleveland + Columbus)
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 18, 2023 21:21:32 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 18, 2023 21:27:11 GMT
That is a tour de force. Bookmarking that.
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Post by jimboo2017 on Aug 18, 2023 21:40:31 GMT
That is a tour de force. Bookmarking that. Yup same here
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weld
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,368
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Post by weld on Aug 19, 2023 13:30:20 GMT
I love the new Aberdeenshire 'blue wall'
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 835
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Post by Sg1 on Aug 19, 2023 22:15:49 GMT
Where did they get their notionals,? I'm surprised that they think that the Colywn Bay seat is notionally Labour yet the Gower one is notionally Conservative.
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weld
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,368
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Post by weld on Aug 20, 2023 18:02:42 GMT
Top craic
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,819
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Aug 21, 2023 5:57:33 GMT
Where did they get their notionals,? I'm surprised that they think that the Colywn Bay seat is notionally Labour yet the Gower one is notionally Conservative. Well, it is certainly not from my source of unoffical notionals. Running those numbers I get Lab 347, Con 214, SNP 44, Lib Dem 22, Plaid 2, Green 1, Ind 1, Others 19 (Lab majority of 44) and in Wales, Con HOLD Brecon and Montgomeryshire with Lab GAIN Caerfryddin.
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weld
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,368
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Post by weld on Aug 24, 2023 17:26:32 GMT
As a former Buckinghamshire resident, this pleases me.
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Post by andrewteale on Sept 5, 2023 17:59:10 GMT
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Post by andrewteale on Sept 6, 2023 16:51:49 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 6, 2023 17:18:06 GMT
It's a funny old world when the Conservatives win more wards in Walsall than in all of Cheltenham, Cherwell, Elmbridge, North Hertfordshire, Portsmouth, Tamworth and Worcester combined.
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weld
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,368
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Post by weld on Sept 7, 2023 5:48:27 GMT
It's a funny old world when the Conservatives win more wards in Walsall than in all of Cheltenham, Cherwell, Elmbridge, North Hertfordshire, Portsmouth, Tamworth and Worcester combined. Note the UKIP vote share eclipsed Labour’s majority in both Walsall North and South even in the 2010 General Election.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,762
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 7, 2023 10:28:41 GMT
Though in both 2022 and 2023 the Tories and Labour were pretty much neck and neck votewise in the borough.
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