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Post by andrewteale on Mar 26, 2017 17:02:23 GMT
Ipswich 2016. Changes based on 2012: Lab gain from C Holywells Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Holywells is 2C/1Lab and the Conservatives are defending in 2018. Rushmere is 2Lab/1C and Labour are defending in 2018. St Margaret's is 2LD/1C and the Liberal Democrats are defending in 2018. Stoke Park is 2C/1Lab and the Conservatives are defending in 2018. Whitton is 2Lab/1C and Labour are defending in 2018.
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Post by krollo on Mar 26, 2017 18:18:02 GMT
One of those ones like Nuneaton that makes you wonder how on Earth Labour ever lost the Parliamentary seat. Presumably there's a story I'm missing here (I wouldn't think the shards of CSNI could swing it that much).
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 26, 2017 18:22:44 GMT
Note that in the split ward of Stoke Park, the Conservative elected in 2015 has just resigned so there will be a byelection on 4 May.
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 26, 2017 22:10:35 GMT
One of those ones like Nuneaton that makes you wonder how on Earth Labour ever lost the Parliamentary seat. Presumably there's a story I'm missing here (I wouldn't think the shards of CSNI could swing it that much). Lots of marginal wards is the probable explanation.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 26, 2017 22:12:33 GMT
Yes, and these are the 2016 Ipswich council results. 2015 was a significantly better year for the Tories as they won 8 seats (including some gains)
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 31, 2017 23:19:57 GMT
Wyre 2015. C 36 Lab 14. New ward boundaries. Split wards in 2015 were: Bourne: 1C/2Lab Jubilee: Lab/C
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Post by andrewteale on Apr 2, 2017 11:54:14 GMT
Gravesham 2015. C 23 (+4) Lab 21 (-4). Changes based on 2011: C gain from Lab Coldharbour (1) Painters Ash (2) Singlewell (1) Westcourt was uncontested. Split wards in 2015 were: Central: 1C/2Lab Coldharbour: Lab/C Painters Ash: 2C/1Lab Singlewell: 2Lab/1C
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Post by andrewteale on Apr 2, 2017 13:23:01 GMT
South Tyneside 2016. Changes based on 2012: Lab gain from C Cleadon and East Boldon Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Bede is 2Lab/1 "Independent - Putting People First" and the Independent councillor is up in 2018. That completes Tyne and Wear on LEAP for 2015.
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Post by andrewteale on Apr 2, 2017 16:18:32 GMT
Knowsley 2016. Lab 42 LD 3. New ward boundaries. No split wards in 2016. And that's a LEAP milestone reached: the Metropolitan Borough results for 2015 are now complete.
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Apr 12, 2017 18:49:06 GMT
So I've fixed my figures and it turns out that Ayrshire was a lot more interesting in the 2016 Scottish Parliament election than I had first assumed. I have never been able to understand how you calculate these numbers (given that ward level data isn't published) therefore could you be so kind as to explain (as I have often wondered about doing the same process for Wales)
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Post by andrewteale on Apr 15, 2017 16:37:01 GMT
Kettering 2015. C 27 (+1) Lab 8 (-1) Ind 1. Changes based on 2011: C gain from Lab All Saints (2) Lab gain from C Pipers Hill (1) Rothwell was a postponed poll. Split wards in 2015 were: Burton Latimer: 2C/1Ind Pipers Hill: C/Lab Rothwell: 1Lab/2C St Michael's and Wicksteed: 2C/1Lab
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Post by andrewteale on Apr 16, 2017 15:07:49 GMT
Crawley 2016. Changes based on 2012: Lab gain from C Southgate Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Gossops Green is C/Lab and is not up in 2018. Ifield is 2Lab/1C and Labour are defending in 2018. Southgate is 2Lab/1C and Labour are defending in 2018. Tilgate is C/Lab and is not up in 2018.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Apr 16, 2017 22:32:34 GMT
That reminds me of the Hamish from episode 5 of "Bagpuss".
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Post by andrewteale on Apr 17, 2017 10:54:27 GMT
Craven 2016. Changes based on 2012: C gain from Ind Skipton North Ind gain from C Barden Fell Lab gain from C Cowling Lab gain from LD Skipton West Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Glusburn is Ind/UKIP and the independent is up in 2018. Skipton East is C/LD and is not up in 2018. Sutton-in-Craven is C/Ind and the Conservatives are defending in 2018. I have redrawn the Craven 2012 maps to incorporate a by-election that year in Hellifield and Long Preston ward.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2017 12:19:38 GMT
Craven 2016. Changes based on 2012: C gain from Ind Skipton North Ind gain from C Barden Fell Lab gain from C Cowling Lab gain from LD Skipton West Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Glusburn is Ind/UKIP and the independent is up in 2018. Skipton East is C/LD and is not up in 2018. Sutton-in-Craven is C/Ind and the Conservatives are defending in 2018. I have redrawn the Craven 2012 maps to incorporate a by-election that year in Hellifield and Long Preston ward. An Amazingly beautiful part of the world. Even if robbed of its Western reaches.
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Post by krollo on Apr 17, 2017 15:52:20 GMT
Craven 2016. Changes based on 2012: C gain from Ind Skipton North Ind gain from C Barden Fell Lab gain from C Cowling Lab gain from LD Skipton West Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Glusburn is Ind/UKIP and the independent is up in 2018. Skipton East is C/LD and is not up in 2018. Sutton-in-Craven is C/Ind and the Conservatives are defending in 2018. I have redrawn the Craven 2012 maps to incorporate a by-election that year in Hellifield and Long Preston ward. An Amazingly beautiful part of the world. Oh, absolutely - spent a good part of my childhood knocking round Skipton and surrounds. So much to explore.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 21, 2017 13:43:50 GMT
Conservative target map (Required swings; darkest grade: above 10%):
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 22, 2017 13:33:36 GMT
LD target map (Required swings; darkest grade: below 10%):
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 22, 2017 13:34:44 GMT
Scottish target map (Required swings; below 11%):
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Post by andrewteale on Apr 22, 2017 20:00:40 GMT
West Berkshire 2015. C 48 (+9) LD 4 (-9). Changes based on 2011: C gain from LD Burghfield (1) Greenham (1) Mortimer (1) Northcroft (2) Thatcham Central (1) Thatcham West (2) Victoria (2) LD gain from C Thatcham North (1) Split wards in 2015 were: Greenham: C/LD Mortimer: LD/C Thatcham North: LD/C
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