Worst performances by major party leaders?

[timrollpickering]

The 1966 rerun has just shown Edward Heath clinging on to his seat with a majority of just over 2000. How does this compare with other major party leaders' own results over the years? I think it's the worst one since 1931.

[Harry Hayfield]

Let's deal with modern history first and then go backwards

General Election 2015
David Cameron (Witney) 43.01%, Ed Milliband (Doncaster North) 29.82%, Nick Clegg (Sheffield, Hallam) 4.24%, Leanne Wood did not stand, Nicola Sturgeon did not stand, Nigel Farage (Thanet South) -5.69%, Natalie Bennett (Holborn and St. Pancras) -40.15%

General Election 2010
David Cameron (Witney) 39.36%, Gordon Brown (Kirkcaldy) 50.24%, Nick Clegg (Sheffield, Hallam) 29.89%, Plaid leader and SNP leader in 2010 unsure, Nigel Farage (Buckingham) -29.91%, Caroline Lucas (Brighton, Pavilion) 2.42%

General Election 2005
Michael Howard (Folkestone) 24.08%, Tony Blair (Sedgefield) 44.48%, Charles Kennedy (Ross) 43.79%, Plaid leader unsure, Alex Salmond (Banff and Buchan) 31.81%, Nigel Farage (Thanet South) -35.36%, Green leader unsure

General Election 2001
William Hague (Richmond, Yorkshire) 37.06%, Tony Blair (Sedgefield) 44.00%, Charles Kennedy (Ross) 37.21%, Plaid leader unsure, SNP leader unsure

General Election 1997
John Major (Huntingdon) 31.85%, Tony Blair (Sedgefield) 53.36%, Paddy Ashdown (Yeovil) 21.10%, Plaid leader unsure, Alex Salmond (Banff and Buchan) 31.97%, James Goldsmith (Putney) -42.20%

Worst performance by a party leader 1997 - 2015: James Goldsmith (Referendum Party, Putney 1997)
Worst performance by a mainstream party leader 1997 - 2015: Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrats, Sheffield, Hallam 2015)

Elections 1992 to 1950 backwards to follow

[No Offence Alan]

Jeremy Thorpe held Devon North by 369 votes in 1970.
Gordon Wilson lost by 1,015 votes in 1987.

[timrollpickering]

I did say major party leaders.

[timrollpickering]

If we're looking at minor leaders as well:

Mar 29, 2016 6:11:43 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Let's deal with modern history first and then go backwards

General Election 2010
David Cameron (Witney) 39.36%, Gordon Brown (Kirkcaldy) 50.24%, Nick Clegg (Sheffield, Hallam) 29.89%, Plaid leader and SNP leader in 2010 unsure, Nigel Farage (Buckingham) -29.91%, Caroline Lucas (Brighton, Pavilion) 2.42%

General Election 2005
Michael Howard (Folkestone) 24.08%, Tony Blair (Sedgefield) 44.48%, Charles Kennedy (Ross) 43.79%, Plaid leader unsure, Alex Salmond (Banff and Buchan) 31.81%, Nigel Farage (Thanet South) -35.36%, Green leader unsure

Nigel Farage was not Ukip leader at either of these elections. 2010 came during the longer Farage interregnum when he stood down to concentrate on unseating John Bercow and Ukip were led by Lord Pearson of Rannoch. In 2005 the Ukip leader was Roger Knapman who was 34.0% behind at Totnes. This is the narrowest defeat for Ukip in that constituency, which is astonishing when you consider how forgettable Knapman is.

Plaid's leadership between 2003 and 2006 was a mess - previously it had been the party president and in the first four years of the Assembly the same person was also group leader but the posts got split when Ieuan Wyn Jones resigned, no AM stood for President and Jones was re-elected group leader leaving it utterly unclear who was the "leader" of Plaid Cymru. In 2006 a constitutional amendment made the Assembly group leader the overall leader.

The EW Greens didn't have a leader at all in this period - they had the baffling system of "Principal Speakers" who in this period were Keith Taylor and Caroline Lucas. Lucas doesn't seem to have stood that year but Taylor was 13.5% behind in Brighton Pavillion.

General Election 1997
John Major (Huntingdon) 31.85%, Tony Blair (Sedgefield) 53.36%, Paddy Ashdown (Yeovil) 21.10%, Plaid leader unsure, Alex Salmond (Banff and Buchan) 31.97%, James Goldsmith (Putney) -42.20%

Plaid was led by Dafydd Wigley who had a 21.5% majority in Caernarfon.

In other elections in this period Plaid and the SNP were led from the devolved parliaments.

Worst performance by a mainstream party leader 1997 - 2015: Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrats, Sheffield, Hallam 2015)

For a major party in this period it's Michael Howard in 2005.

You left out the NI leaders. The best in the period was Gerry Adams in Belfast West in 2005 with a 55.9% majority. The worst was Bob McCartney in North Down in 2001, losing by 19.7%. If you dismiss UKUP as a fringe then it was David Trimble in Upper Bann in 2005, losing by 12.2%. Long term it will be hard to find a leader's result that beats Ian Paisley's 94.8% majority in the 1986 North Antrim by-election against "Peter Barry".

[Deleted]

Numerous party leaders, some of them (former) Prime Ministers, lost their seats in the first half of the last century. Asquith managed it twice:

1906: Arthur Balfour, Conservative, lost Manchester East

1918: Herbert Asquith, Liberal, lost East Fife

1924: Herbert Asquith, Liberal, lost Paisley

1931: Arthur Henderson, Labour, lost Burnley

1935: Herbert Samuel, Liberal, lost Darwen. Ramsay MacDonald, National Labour, lost Seaham.

[greenhert]

You missed out Archibald Sinclair, Liberal, lost Caithness & Sutherland in 1945 (albeit by only 61 votes).

[timrollpickering]

Ernest Brown, Liberal National, also lost in Leith in 1945 by 29.4% on a swing of 22.4. That's an even bigger swing than the SNP achieved in the modern seat 70 years later.