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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Sept 13, 2016 0:26:20 GMT
Wales review has been published and, oh God... I've just seen the proposed constituency that my home area falls into... It's fucking dreadful...
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,924
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Post by mondialito on Sept 13, 2016 0:29:04 GMT
Wales review has been published and, oh God... I've just seen the proposed constituency that my home area falls into... It's fucking dreadful... Where is it? I can't find it on the Welsh boundary commission site.
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Post by greenchristian on Sept 13, 2016 0:35:07 GMT
I think we can conclude either that the commissioners don't frequent this site, or that they are deliberately trolling us.
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Sept 13, 2016 0:36:07 GMT
Wales review has been published and, oh God... I've just seen the proposed constituency that my home area falls into... It's fucking dreadful... Where is it? I can't find it on the Welsh boundary commission site. www.bcw2018.org.uk/For my area, look under the Conwy authority (and mentally prepare yourself for the horribleness).
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,924
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Post by mondialito on Sept 13, 2016 0:41:23 GMT
Where is it? I can't find it on the Welsh boundary commission site. www.bcw2018.org.uk/For my area, look under the Conwy authority (and mentally prepare yourself for the horribleness). Thanks
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
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Post by Izzyeviel on Sept 13, 2016 0:45:43 GMT
Ynys Mon & Arfon - Plaid Cymru gain.
What the hell did they do to Conwy!
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Sept 13, 2016 0:49:00 GMT
Ynys Mon & Arfon - Plaid Cymru gain. What the hell did they do to Conwy! And they mutilated Meirionydd... (If you open your window, stick your head out and listen carefully, you can hear me sobbing at the awfulness that has been unleashed tonight.) Anyway, here's a link I think a lot of people here may find useful.
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Post by uhurasmazda on Sept 13, 2016 0:51:54 GMT
Is Caroline Lucas gone, would you say?
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 13, 2016 0:56:07 GMT
Is Caroline Lucas gone, would you say? You'd think it would be difficult to get rid of her even with extensive boundary changes. I haven't seen the details though, so I guess is anything is possible.
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979
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Post by sirbenjamin on Sept 13, 2016 1:09:01 GMT
Why can't we have an 8 hour long TV programme where they reveal the new seats one at a time starting with Sunderland West? Along with the net partisan effect of the proposed boundary changes e.g. "Con GAIN Coventry West and Meriden" while Anthony King explains why it's a terrible night for the Tories.
Man, I'd stay up all night watching that.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 13, 2016 1:10:41 GMT
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,853
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Post by jamie on Sept 13, 2016 1:16:54 GMT
Is Caroline Lucas gone, would you say? It doesn't look good for her. She's loses safe Green ward and marginal Green/Labour ward. She gains very safe Conservative ward, safe Conservative ward and safe Labour ward. It looks to me like a 3 way ultra-marginal contest.
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Post by andrewteale on Sept 13, 2016 1:23:31 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 13, 2016 1:43:41 GMT
Isle of Wight East: 53,268
Isle of Wight West: 52,180
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Post by johnloony on Sept 13, 2016 1:52:51 GMT
Five years ago, when I was doing my own stuff in the OMRLP, I spent ages going through everything and proposal alternatives. This time, now that I am a small cog in a large Conservative machine, I don't feel the need - or even the desire - to spend as much time looking at the details.
My initial reaction to my own area (Croydon) is that the three constituencies are each reasonable on their own, but Croydon overall is very messy because there are 3 lone/orphan wards dangling on at the edges.
The current Croydon Central had a Labour plurality of c.600 votes in the local elections in 2014; the proposed new one has a Labour plurality of c.100 votes. On a purely party-political basis, this is a good thing because at the parliamentary level it would extrapolate to a Conservative majority for Gavin Barwell of c.900 instead of 165. The proposed Croydon Central also has its geographical centre close to the town centre area, rather than out in Shirley somewhere. In other words, the proposed version is much more like "Croydon Central" whereas the existing "Croydon Central" is actually more like a Croydon East.
I will probably spend more time in the coming days and weeks looking at the other regions of England, but not now.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,725
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Post by iain on Sept 13, 2016 5:19:16 GMT
Many of these seats are quite impressively bad. I mean they're bad in places where they've refused to split wards (Sheffield, Birmingham, the list goes on) but they've even managed to fuck up where this shouldn't be an issue (Derbyshire, Rochdale, etc)
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Post by John Chanin on Sept 13, 2016 6:59:21 GMT
I've only had time for a quick look, and won't be able to do detail until I return from holiday in October. Birmingham & Sheffield as horrible as expected, but they've pretty much mucked up the rest of the West Midlands as well. North East looks terrible. London isn't too bad, although can be improved.
What I don't understand is the way they split towns all over the place, when there isn't even a minimal change defence. Do they have maps?
PS: I quite like Essex.
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Post by afleitch on Sept 13, 2016 7:43:16 GMT
The no ward splitting rule is daft. Though the rules may prevent them from doing that unless they have accurate polling district data (to ensure quota)
But once again the inflexibility of the legislation leads to awful boundaries. The MP's moan but they've been warned. Twice.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Sept 13, 2016 7:46:11 GMT
Morning everyone. Is there a website which has the notional new results?
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Post by Antiochian on Sept 13, 2016 7:53:31 GMT
Happy to see NW Hants lose its most Tory bits (the Clatfords, the Anns and all the military housing etc) and remain focussed on Andover, Whitchurch, Tadley and Overton, which have all been LibDem to one extent or another in the past. This might prompt the lumbering Kit Malthouse to do a chicken run to the south and slug it out with Caroline Nokes (a sight to see).
He actually ends up "living" (as he has a pseudo-residence in the twee village of Abbotts Ann) outside the constituency and in Nokes' patch.
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