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Post by middleenglander on Sept 14, 2015 8:42:43 GMT
Caerphilly, Bedwas, Trethomas & Machen - Labour hold | Party | 2015 votes | 2015 share | since 2012 "top" | since 2012 "average" | since 2008 "top" | since 2008 "average" | | Labour | 1,002 | 46.8% | -6.8% | -6.8% | +14.2% | +16.3% | | Plaid Cymru ** | 509 | 23.8% | +4.6% | +7.0% | +0.9% | -1.3% | | UKIP * | 223 | 10.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent Dew | 184 | 8.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 119 | 5.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent Davies | 106 | 4.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independents (4) |
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| -14.7% | -15.1% |
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| | Independents (3) |
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| -12.6% | -14.6% |
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| | Independents (2) |
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| -44.6% | -44.5% | | Total votes | 2,143 |
| 62% | 78% | 56% | 62% |
* Bobby Douglas stood as an Independent in 2012, nominated as UKIP for by-election and then disowned by the party but remains UKIP on ballot paper ** Ron Davies elected as Independent in 2008 but failed to be elected as Plaid Cymru in 2012 and 2015 Swing Labour to Plaid Cymru ~6 % / 7% since 2012 otherwise not meaningful Council now 50 Labour, 20 Plaid Cymru, 3 Independent Edinburgh, Leith Walk - SNP hold one seat whilst Labour gain second seat from Greenbased on first preference votes | Party | 2015 votes | 2015 share | since 2012 | since 2007 | | SNP | 2,290 | 36.2% | +7.7% | +13.5% | | Labour | 1,623 | 25.7% | -7.6% | -1.7% | | Green | 1,381 | 21.8% | +1.6% | +6.3% | | Conservative | 501 | 7.9% | -0.2% | -2.0% | | Liberal Democrat | 255 | 4.0% | -1.1% | -15.2% | | UKIP | 102 | 1.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Socialist | 97 | 1.5% | from nowhere | -0.1% | | Left Unity | 32 | 0.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent | 26 | 0.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Libertarian | 17 | 0.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Previous Independents |
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| -2.6% | -0.1% | | TUSC |
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| -1.4% |
| | Liberal |
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| -0.9% | -1.7% | | Solidarity |
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| -1.8% | | Total | 6,324 |
| 80% | 56% |
Swing Labour to SNP 7.7% since 2012 and 7.6% since 2007 Council now 21 Labour, 17 SNP, 11 Conservative, 5 Green, 3 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent Maidstone, Fant - Conservative hold | Party | 2015 B votes | 2015 B share | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | since 2011 | | Conservative | 477 | 27.1% | -2.6% | +9.2% | -4.8% | -2.5% | | Liberal Democrat | 424 | 24.1% | +2.1% | +7.5% | +7.9% | -2.8% | | Labour | 352 | 20.0% | -0.3% | -3.6% | -8.6% | -2.0% | | Green | 249 | 14.2% | +3.9% | -6.2% | -9.0% | -7.2% | | UKIP | 180 | 10.2% | -7.3% | -11.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent | 75 | 4.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Total votes | 1,757 |
| 42% | 70% | 92% | 72% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 2.3% since May, 0.9% since 2014 and 6.4% since 2012 but marginal swing to Conservative since 2011 Council now 25 Conservative, 20 Liberal Democrat, 6 Independeent, 2 Labour, 2 UKIP Midlothian, Midlothian West - SNP hold based on first preference votes | Party | 2015 votes | 2015 share | since 2012 | since 2007 | | SNP | 1,540 | 43.2% | +3.5% | +10.0% | | Labour | 945 | 26.5% | -9.0% | +1.3% | | Conservative | 524 | 14.7% | +4.0% | +4.1% | | Green | 372 | 10.4% | +5.2% | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 162 | 4.5% | -1.1% | -10.0% | | No Description | 25 | 0.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Previous Independents |
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| -2.4% | -11.2% | | TUSC |
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| -0.9% |
| | Socialist |
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| -1.8% | | Had Enough |
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| -1.8% | | Solidarity |
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| -1.7% | | Total votes | 3,568 |
| 82% | 60% |
Swing Labour to SNP 6.2% since 2012 and 4.3% since 2007 Council now 8 Labour, 8 SNP, 1 Green, 1 Independent Sandwell, Blackheath - Labour hold | Party | 2015 B votes | 2015 B share | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | since 2011 | | Labour | 915 | 51.4% | +7.0% | +12.1% | -1.8% | -7.3% | | Conservative | 544 | 30.5% | -0.6% | +9.9% | -4.0% | -10.8% | | UKIP | 287 | 16.1% | -8.4% | -20.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green | 35 | 2.0% | from nowhere | -2.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Traditional Independent |
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| -12.3% |
| | Total votes | 1,781 |
| 56% | 64% | 72% | 56% |
Swing Conservative to Labour 3.8% since May, 1.1% since 2014 if meaningful, 1.1% since 2012 and 1.7% since 2011 Council now 69 Labour, 2 Independent Labour, 1 UKIP Thurrock, West Thurrock & South Stifford - Labour hold | Party | 2015 B votes | 2015 B share | since 2015 | since 2014 B | since 2014 | since 2012 | since 2011 | | Labour | 629 | 43.0% | -3.9% | -7.3% | -4.3% | -8.8% | -9.6% | | UKIP | 450 | 30.8% | +1.9% | -3.9% | -3.4% | +10.4% | from nowhere | | Conservative | 384 | 26.2% | +2.1% | +11.2% | +11.0% | +12.8% | -5.7% | | Liberal Democrat |
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| -3.3% | -3.0% | -4.8% | | Independent |
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| -11.4% |
| | BNP |
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| -10.7% | | Total votes | 1,463 |
| 34% | 82% | 66% | 93% | 81% |
Swing Labour to UKIP 2.9% since May, 1.7% since 2014 by-election, 0.5% since 2014 an 9.6% since 2012 Council now 18 Labour, 17 Conservative, 11 UKIP, 3 Independent Tunbridge Wells, Southborough North - Conservative hold | Party | 2015 B votes | 2015 B share | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2011 | since 2010 | | Conservative | 483 | 43.7% | -14.0% | -11.8% | -8.7% | -15.3% | | Liberal Democrat | 434 | 39.3% | +23.9% | +26.6% | +14.3% | -1.7% | | UKIP | 188 | 17.0% | +6.0% | +1.6% | +8.2% | from nowhere | | Labour |
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| -16.0% | -16.4% | -13.8% |
| | Total votes | 1,105 |
| 47% | 78% | 70% | 49% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 19% since both May and 2014, 11.5% since 2011 and ~7% since 2010 Council now 42 Conservative, 3 Liberal Democrat, 2 Labour, 1 Independent
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 24, 2015 22:07:53 GMT
Haringey, Noel Park - Labour hold | Party | 2015 votes | 2015 share | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | since 2010 "top" | since 2010 "average" | | Labour | 1,005 | 61.3% | +6.3% | +4.6% | +19.8% | +18.8% | | Liberal Democrat | 247 | 15.1% | +0.8% | +0.4% | -18.6% | -18.4% | | Conservative | 178 | 10.9% | +4.7% | +4.8% | -3.0% | -2.8% | | Green | 124 | 7.6% | -7.0% | -4.3% | -0.7% | +0.2% | | UKIP | 48 | 2.9% | -3.4% | -3.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | TUSC | 38 | 2.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independents |
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| -3.7% | -4.0% | -2.8% | -3.1% | | Total votes | 1,640 |
| 47% | 51% | 32% | 35% |
Swing Liberal Democrat to Labour ~2½% since 2014 and ~19% since 2010 Council now 48 Labour, 9 Liberal Democrat Haringey, Woodside - Labour hold | Party | 2015 votes | 2015 share | since 2014 B | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | since 2010 "top" | since 2010 "average" | | Labour | 1,279 | 61.7% | +5.4% | +4.6% | +3.3% | +15.3% | +14.9% | | Liberal Democrat | 435 | 21.0% | +0.6% | +9.2% | +9.3% | -14.0% | -13.7% | | Conservative | 141 | 6.8% | +0.9% | -0.9% | -0.4% | -5.3% | -5.2% | | Green | 122 | 5.9% | -2.2% | -5.6% | -4.1% | -0.6% | -0.5% | | UKIP | 95 | 4.6% | -2.2% | -2.7% | -3.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | TUSC |
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| -1.5% | -2.8% | -3.0% |
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| | Independent |
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| -1.0% | -1.7% | -1.8% |
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| | Total votes | 2,072 |
| 88% | 59% | 62% | 42% | 44% |
Swing Liberal Democrat to Labour ~2½% since October 2014 by-election but Labour to Liberal Democrat ~3% since 2014 although ~14% to Labour since 2010 Council now 48 Labour, 9 Liberal Democrat Richmondshire, Richmond East - Conservative hold | Party | 2015 B votes | 2015 B share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 307 | 39.7% | +7.1% | +7.1% | +11.4% | +7.8% | | Richmondshire Independent | 289 | 37.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 136 | 17.6% | -1.1% | -1.9% | -6.5% | -8.5% | | Labour | 41 | 5.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent |
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| -34.4% | -32.9% | -47.7% | -42.0% | | Green |
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| -14.3% | -14.9% |
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| | Total votes | 773 |
| 49% | 51% | 69% | 79% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 21 Conservative, 7 Independent, 4 Richmondshire Independent, 2 Liberal Democrat South Ayrshire, Ayr East - SNP hold at final stage based on first preference votes | Party | 2015 votes | 2015 share | since 2012 | since 2007 | | Conservative | 1,527 | 38.5% | +5.5% | -0.6% | | SNP | 1,507 | 38.0% | +6.5% | +10.3% | | Labour | 642 | 16.2% | -7.3% | -14.5% | | Independent | 218 | 5.5% | -1.0% | from nowhere | | Green | 76 | 1.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Previous Independent |
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| -5.7% |
| | Solidarity |
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| | -2.6% | | Total votes | 3,970 |
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| 57% |
Swing Conservative to SNP ~½% since 2012 and ~5½% since 2007 Council now 10 Conservative, 9 Labour, 9 SNP, 2 Independent South Cambridgeshire, Bourn - Conservative hold | Party | 2015 B votes | 2015 B share | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | since 2011 | | Conservative | 579 | 46.5% | -9.9% | +21.2% | +0.0% | +4.3% | | Liberal Democrat | 247 | 19.8% | from nowhere | +14.3% | +6.0% | +3.3% | | Labour | 235 | 18.9% | -10.4% | +2.9% | -20.9% | -0.3% | | UKIP | 121 | 9.7% | from nowhere | -4.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green | 64 | 5.1% | -9.2% | -1.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Previous Independents |
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| -31.9% |
| -22.2% | | Total votes | 1,246 |
| 23% | 47% | 74% | 47% |
Swing not particularly meaningful Council now 38 Conservative, 11 Liberal democrat, 7 Independent, 1 Labour Derbyshire, Derwent Valley - Conservative hold | Party | 2015 votes | 2015 share | since 2013 | since 2009 | since 2005 | | Conservative | 1,107 | 51.0% | +8.1% | +4.7% | +3.5% | | Labour | 466 | 21.5% | -1.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 314 | 14.5% | +4.6% | -17.3% | -38.1% | | UKIP | 285 | 13.1% | -11.0% | +4.8% | from nowhere | | Independent |
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| -13.7% |
| | Total votes | 2,172 |
| 56% | 48% | 34% |
Swing Labour to Conservative 4.9% since 2013 otherwise not particularly meaningful Council now 43 Labour, 18 Conservative, 3 Liberal Democrat Norfolk, Loddon - Conservative hold| Party | 2015 B2 votes | 2015 B2 share | since 2015 B1 | since 2013 | since 2009 | since 2005 | | Conservative | 1,094 | 57.0% | +6.9% | -6.7% | -20.5% | -8.1% | | Labour | 357 | 18.6% | +1.6% | +6.4% | +12.7% | +5.0% | | Liberal Democrat | 235 | 12.2% | +4.0% | +7.1% | +0.2% | -3.7% | | UKIP | 233 | 12.1% | -3.3% | -6.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green |
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| -9.3% |
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| -5.4% | | Independent |
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| -4.4% |
| | Total votes | 1,919 |
| 32% | 61% | 48% | 33% |
Swing Labour to Conservative 2.6% since May but Conservative to Labour since 2013, 2009 and 2005 if meaningful Council now 40 Conservative, 14 Labour, 13 UKIP, 10 Liberal Democrat, 4 Green, 2 Non Aligned, 1 Vacant South Norfolk, Chedgrave & Thurton - Conservative hold | Party | 2015 B votes | 2015 B share | since 2015 | since 2011 | since 2007 | | Conservative | 260 | 53.5% | +7.7% | -3.9% | -10.8% | | Labour | 93 | 19.1% | -0.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 69 | 14.2% | +5.6% | -9.1% | -21.5% | | UKIP | 64 | 13.2% | -3.0% | -6.1% | from nowhere | | No Description |
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| -9.6% |
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| | Total votes | 486 |
| 32% | 46% | 55% |
Swing Labour to Conservative 4¼% since May otherwise not meaningful Council now 40 Conservative, 6 Liberal Democrat Wakefield, Pontefract North - Labour hold | Party | 2015 B votes | 2015 B share | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | since 2011 | | Labour | 909 | 48.0% | -3.7% | -0.6% | +0.1% | -12.1% | | UKIP | 453 | 23.9% | +2.3% | -11.7% | +13.2% | +13.2% | | Conservative | 299 | 15.8% | -5.1% | +2.1% | +1.8% | -8.0% | | Yorkshire First | 124 | 6.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 86 | 4.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | TUSAC | 24 | 1.3% | -0.2% | -0.8% | -0.9% | from nowhere | | Green |
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| -4.3% |
| -3.0% | -5.4% | | Independent |
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| -22.3% |
| | Total votes | 1,895 |
| 29% | 56% | 55% | 50% |
Swing Labpor to UKIP 3.0% since May, ~6½% since 2012, ~12½% since 2011 but UKIP to Labour ~5½% since 2014 Council now 53 Labour, 6 Conservative, 2 UKIP, 2 Independent Wyre Forest, Blakebrook & South Habberley - Conservative hold | Party | 2015 B votes | 2015 B share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Conservative | 595 | 40.0% | +11.5% | +10.6% | | UKIP | 252 | 16.9% | -3.2% | -3.2% | | Labour | 247 | 16.6% | -1.7% | -1.8% | | Green | 173 | 11.6% | +0.5% | +3.4% | | Health Concern | 167 | 11.2% | -4.2% | -5.6% | | Liberal Democrat | 54 | 3.6% | -1.3% | -1.7% | | TUSC |
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| -1.6% | -1.7% | | Total votes | 1,488 |
| 34% | 37% |
Swing UKIP to Conservative ~7% since May, Labour to Conservatve also ~6¼ since May Council now 23 Conservative, 3 Labour, 3 Independent, 2 Health Concern, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 UKIP
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 25, 2015 9:46:19 GMT
There have been 17 by-elections for 18 seats during September 2015 with just one seat (5½%) changing hands. The results can be summarised by: | Party | Candidates | Defended | Retained | Gained | Lost | Won | retention rate | | Conservative | 17 | 8 | 8 |
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| 8 | 100% | | Labour | 15 | 6 | 6 | 1 |
| 7 | 100% | | Liberal Democrat | 13 |
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| | SNP | 3 | 3 | 3 |
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| 3 | 100% | | Plaid Cymru | 1 |
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| | UKIP * | 15 |
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| | Green | 9 | 1 |
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| 1 |
| 0% | | Independent ** | 5 |
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| | Health Concern | 1 |
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| | Left Unity | 1 |
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| | Libertarian | 1 |
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| | No Description | 1 |
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| | Richmondshire Independent | 1 |
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| | Socialist | 1 |
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| | Yorkshire First | 1 |
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| | TUSC / TUSAC | 2 |
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| | Total | 87 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 94% |
* Candidate in Caerphilly: Bedwas, Trethomas & Machen was disowned by party but remained UKIP on ballot paper ** 5 Independent candidates stood in 4 by-elections The only seat to change hands was in a "double" election in Edinburgh: Leith Walk where the SNP candidate topped the poll, all parties having just 1 candidate - Labour gained a seat from a Green although the Green share rose by 1.6% since 2012 with the Labour share falling by 7.6%. Elsewhere Conservatives retained - "marginal" seats at Maidstone: Fant (3% majority), Richmondshire: Richmond East (2%) and Wyre Forest: Blakebrook & South Habberley (23%) - "safe" seats at Derbyshire: Derwent Valley (29%), Norfolk: Loddon (38%), South Cambridgeshire: Bourn (27%), South Norfolk: Chadgrave & Thurton (34%) - but saw majority in Tunbridge Well: Southborough North fall to 4% on a 19% swing to Liberal Democrat since both May 2015 and 2014. Labour retained generally safe seats - Caerphilly: Bedwas etc (23%), Haringey: Noel Park (46%) & Woodside (41%), Wakefield: Pontefract North (24%), Sandwell: Blackheath (21%) - although in Thurrock: West Thurrock & South Stifford (12% majority) swing to UKIP was ~3% since May with Conservatives not far behind in third. SNP retained Edinburgh: Leith Walk and Midlothian: Midlothian West on swings from Labour much smaller than those in August - whilst in South Ayrshire: Ayr East final majority over Conservative was 35 votes following Conservative ahead by 20 votes on first preferences there was a ½% swing Conservative to SNP on first preferences. |
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 25, 2015 12:28:05 GMT
There have been 66 by-elections for 67 seats during the June to September 2015 period with 14 seats (21%) changing hands. The results are summarised by: | Party | Candidates | Defended | Retained | Gained | Lost | Won | retention rate | | Conservative | 63 | 19 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 84% | | Labour | 59 | 22 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 91% | | Liberal Democrat | 47 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 75% | | SNP | 13 | 12 | 12 | 1 |
| 13 | 100% | | Plaid Cymru | 5 | 1 | 1 |
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| 1 | 100% | | UKIP * | 54 | 4 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 25% | | Green | 43 | 2 |
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| 2 |
| 0% | | Independent ** | 17 |
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| | Libertarian | 2 |
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| | Local Groups *** | 8 | 2 |
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| 2 |
| 0% | | Mebyon Kernow | 1 |
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| | No Description | 3 | 1 |
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| 1 |
| 0% | | Orkney Manifesto | 1 |
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| 1 |
| 1 |
| | Socialist / Left Unity | 3 |
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| | TUSC / TUSAC | 5 |
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| | Other **** | 5 |
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| | Total | 329 | 67 | 53 | 14 | 14 | 67 | 79% |
* one candidate was disowned by party but remained UKIP on ballot paper ** 17 Independent candidates stood in 16 by-elections *** Hykeham Ind, Kidderminster Health Concern, Lincolnshire Ind, Llais Gwynedd, North East, Richmondshire Ind, Yorkshire First x 2 - Lincolnshire Ind did not defend one seat whilst Tower Hamlets First is no longer registered and defended seat as an Independent **** Christian (3), Pirate (1) and Something New (1) Conservatives gained Cambridgeshire: Wisbech South, Cornwall: Pendarves & Norfolk: Gorleston St Andrew from UKIP - also Exeter: Pinhoe from Labour & North Kesteven: North Hykeham Mill from Lincolnshire Independent who did not contest the seat - but lost Powys: Glasbury, Richmond-upon-Thames: Hampton Wick & Rother: Battle Town to Liberal Democrats Labour gained Cambridgeshire: Romsey from Liberal Democrat, Edinburgh: Leith Walk from Green & Tower Hamlets: Stepney Green from Tower Hamlets First - losing Wrexham: Llay to Liberal Democrats as well as Exeter: Pinhoe to Conservative SNP gained Glasgow; Langside from Green Orkney Manifesto gained Orkney: West Mainside from No Description who had founded and was sitting as Orkney Manifesto |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 25, 2015 12:40:48 GMT
This table is of interest because Tim Farron has spent the last week loudly claiming that there was a Lib Dem renaissance on the basis of the Lib Dems making more council gains than anyone else.
On a gross figure that's wrong. On a nett figure it's right, by a margin of one council seat. Either way it's a spectacularly stupid deduction.
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 25, 2015 13:11:57 GMT
This table is of interest because Tim Farron has spent the last week loudly claiming that there was a Lib Dem renaissance on the basis of the Lib Dems making more council gains than anyone else. On a gross figure that's wrong. On a nett figure it's right, by a margin of one council seat. Either way it's a spectacularly stupid deduction. I think he is including Town and Parish Councils in some of his figures. |
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