UKIP's Council By-election Performance Since May 2015

[middleenglander]

The UKIP performance in each of the 40 by-elections the party has contested since the General Election, 80% of the total of 50 upto and including 3rd September, can be summarised by:

Date of Election	Authority	Ward / Division	By-election share	Change in share - average basis	Last contested
4th June	Cambridgeshire	Wisbech South	18.6%	-19.6%	2013
11th June	Sutton	Wallington South	5.8%	-11.8%	2014
11th June	Tower Hamlets	Stepney Green	5.2%	-3.6%	2014
25th June	Cambridgeshire	Romsey	2.1%	from nowhere
2nd July	Lincolnshire	Grantham Barrowby	15.3%	from nowhere
2nd July	Richmond upon Thames	Hampton Wick	2.5%	from nowhere
9th July	East Sussex	Old Hastings & Tressall	10.2%	-12.2%	2013
9th July	Hastings	Central St Leonards	7.0%	-8.8%	2014
9th July	Hastings	St Helens	7.9%	-13.9%	2014
9th July	Hounslow	Brentford	4.7%	-8.2%	2014
9th July	Hyndburn	Spring Hill	9.7%	-6.1%	2014
9th July	North Lanarkshire	Thorniwell	0.9%	from nowhere
9th July	Sandwell	Newton	15.9%	-7.3%	2015
16th July	Kingston upon Thames	Grove	2.2%	-2.5%	2015
16th July	Norfolk	Gorleston St Andrews	13.9%	-22.8%	2013
16th July	Norfolk	Mile Cross	10.2%	-11.4%	2015
16th July	Rother	Battle Town	8.2%	from nowhere
16th July	Tendring	Rush Green	38.5%	-10.0%	2015
16th July	Wrexham	Llay	4.5%	from nowhere
23rd July	Blackburn with Darwen	Mill Hill	20.8%	-7.5%	2015
23rd July	Caerphilly	New Tredegar	11.5%	from nowhere
23rd July	Elmbridge	Long Ditton	4.0%	-4.8%	2015
23rd July	North East Lincolnshire	Croft Baker	15.3%	-8.0%	2015
23rd July	Westminster	Harrow Road	2.5%	-7.4%	2014
30th July	Northumberland	College	14.0%	from nowhere
30th July	Wychavon	Droitwich East	18.0%	-3.1%	2015
6th August	Glasgow	Anderston / City	1.4%	from nowhere
6th August	Glasgow	Calton	3.8%	from nowhere
6th August	Glasgow	Craigton	1.9%	+1.0%	2012
6th August	Glasgow	Langside	1.5%	from nowhere
6th August	South Lanarkshire	Hamilton South	1.1%	-1.4%	2013
13th August	Caerphilly	Cross Keys	23.7%	from nowhere
13th August	Exeter	Pinhoe	8.0%	-11.5%	2014
13th August	North Lanarkshire	Wishaw	1.8%	from nowhere
13th August	Warwickshire	Nuneaton Whitestone	13.3%	from nowhere
20th August	Cornwall	Camborne Pendarves	8.3%	-23.5%	2013
20th August	Durham	Shotton & South Hetton	11.6%	from nowhere
20th August	West Oxfordshire	Witney North	8.2%	-3.3%	2015
27th August	Barnsley	Dearne North	12.0%	-15.4%	2015
3rd September	Caerphilly *	Bedwas, Trethomas & Machen		from nowhere

* now standing as Independent as disowned by UKIP

[Pete Whitehead]

Thanks for this Middle Englander - some very interesting analysis which does show that the results since May have not been uniformly positive for UKIP. Obviously some of the results, like Gorleston for example, have to be seen in their context and it is encouraging to see such strong progress in Craigton. Nevertheless while I appreciate your post, 'liking' it somehow doesn't seem appropriate..

[maxque]

Getting 2% is strong progress??

"has not been uniformly positive for UKIP"? They lost votes in every by-election but one (and, of all things, with Arthur Thackeray, the UKIP Scotland chairman who once said than the GCC of "Glasgow City Council" meant "Gay Catholic Communist" as well than various anti-catholic and hobophobic rants as candidate. Are you sure you want to brag aout progress with that knid of candidate?)!

[Pimpernal]

Aug 10, 2015 5:17:08 GMT maxque said:

Getting 2% is strong progress??

"has not been uniformly positive for UKIP"? They lost votes in every by-election but one (and, of all things, with Arthur Thackeray, the UKIP Scotland chairman who once said than the GCC of "Glasgow City Council" meant "Gay Catholic Communist" as well than various anti-catholic and hobophobic rants as candidate. Are you sure you want to brag aout progress with that knid of candidate?)!

He was ranting against tramps? That's not very nice is it?

But seriously, no the period since the Election hasn't been great for UKIP and I think that's largely down to the perceived failure to breakthrough at the General Election. The membership has largely gone into holiday mode and probably won't be energised again until the No campaign starts in September.

The weekly cycle of Byelections have rarely been a source of enjoyment for UKIPpers, with only the occasional success to cheer about - and this has been the case ever since 2011 really. Even after our successes in the County Elections in 2013, we had a series of losses of those same seats throughout the following year.

We really need a byelection in Swale to get national momentum going in the right direction again

[The Bishop]

Aug 10, 2015 8:47:24 GMT @boogieeck said:

The GE was touted as being UKIPs springboard to greater things in 2020 and at 4 million votes it could have been but for FPTP and Nigel Farage. Instead the failure to make a breakthrough (FPTP) and Farage (the post GE resignation flip flop and squabbles) and the reality that so many UKIP voters turned out to be actually very pleased that to their surprise the Conservatives won outright against their expectations has damaged the UKIP brand.

In every case where there is a previous vote to compare it with the UKIP vote is down. That pattern will continue.

The number of Scottish By elections do however mean that the average vote share is flawed.

I think this is not as widespread as you imagine, not least because several blue-tinted Kippers were won over (back?) to the Tories *before* the GE.

Indeed, this was a major reason *for* their "surprise" win.

Broadly speaking I agree with Pimp's analysis here - UKIP are down but far from out.

[Pimpernal]

From my experience, Bish is right on this - many blue Kippers went back to the Tories out of fear of a SNP dominated Milliband Government. They are far from happy at the new Cameron government, but haven't got the impetus at the moment to speak out too much in the hope that Cameron somehow validates their move.

[Pete Whitehead]

Aug 10, 2015 5:17:08 GMT maxque said:

Getting 2% is strong progress??

"has not been uniformly positive for UKIP"? They lost votes in every by-election but one (and, of all things, with Arthur Thackeray, the UKIP Scotland chairman who once said than the GCC of "Glasgow City Council" meant "Gay Catholic Communist" as well than various anti-catholic and hobophobic rants as candidate. Are you sure you want to brag aout progress with that knid of candidate?)!

Oh dear. I guess you don't do irony in Quebec?

[cefin]

No doubt about it that these figures are a touch disappointing to say the least.


However one positive is the large percentage of seats not contested before which would indicate that far from being down and out UKIP are continuing to put up more candidates than ever and one would like to think continue to increase the vote in areas that haven't seen a UKIP candidate before.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Aug 10, 2015 5:31:50 GMT Pimpernal said:

Aug 10, 2015 5:17:08 GMT maxque said:

Getting 2% is strong progress??

"has not been uniformly positive for UKIP"? They lost votes in every by-election but one (and, of all things, with Arthur Thackeray, the UKIP Scotland chairman who once said than the GCC of "Glasgow City Council" meant "Gay Catholic Communist" as well than various anti-catholic and hobophobic rants as candidate. Are you sure you want to brag aout progress with that knid of candidate?)!

He was ranting against tramps? That's not very nice is it?

But seriously, no the period since the Election hasn't been great for UKIP and I think that's largely down to the perceived failure to breakthrough at the General Election. The membership has largely gone into holiday mode and probably won't be energised again until the No campaign starts in September.

The weekly cycle of Byelections have rarely been a source of enjoyment for UKIPpers, with only the occasional success to cheer about - and this has been the case ever since 2011 really. Even after our successes in the County Elections in 2013, we had a series of losses of those same seats throughout the following year.

We really need a byelection in Swale to get national momentum going in the right direction again

I agree with a lot of this, but the period in 2013-2014 where UKIP regularly got 20%+ all over the place in local-by-elections, seemingly sometimes off the back of very little work, did help to build a sense of momentum. There weren't many victories, but it gave the sense that victory was possible.

But where UKIP is actually in contention, they're no longer pushing at an open door. Other parties have got better at reacting, the rise has levelled off and without external factors, the drop in vote share isn't surprising.

The referendum campaign will definitely be a factor - it's certainly going to be key if you want to hold your 2013 gains, regardless of whether the referendum is tied to the locals or takes place separately in the autumn.

[maxque]

Aug 10, 2015 11:10:48 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Aug 10, 2015 5:17:08 GMT maxque said:

Getting 2% is strong progress??

"has not been uniformly positive for UKIP"? They lost votes in every by-election but one (and, of all things, with Arthur Thackeray, the UKIP Scotland chairman who once said than the GCC of "Glasgow City Council" meant "Gay Catholic Communist" as well than various anti-catholic and hobophobic rants as candidate. Are you sure you want to brag aout progress with that knid of candidate?)!

Oh dear. I guess you don't do irony in Quebec?

I get irony, but I saw too many party hacks twist facts and numbers to create a positive narrative for their party to tell apart irony and over-the-top partisan hackiness. You know the lenghts some people are willing to go to get noticied by the party HQ, hoping for a job or a selection.

But, yeah, bad week for me, I should talk less and think more.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Aug 10, 2015 10:36:12 GMT Pimpernal said:

From my experience, Bish is right on this - many blue Kippers went back to the Tories out of fear of a SNP dominated Milliband Government. They are far from happy at the new Cameron government, but haven't got the impetus at the moment to speak out too much in the hope that Cameron somehow validates their move.

I suppose that the interesting question is what happens if Corbyn gets in.  UKIP-leaning voters who went to the Tories out of fear are going to be hard to drag back if someone likely to cause them more fear is in charge of Labour.

[The Bishop]

Unless they don't take the prospect of Labour actually winning under JC seriously, of course......

Which has some historical precedent, in contrast to quite a few other GEs the Tories significantly *under*performed compared to their polling figures in 1983 - this has quite a bit to do with the fact nobody seriously thought Labour/Foot could win, so some Tory-inclined voters stayed at home and others took a punt on the Libs/SDP.

(this also helps explain the huge drop in turnout in 2001, and Labour support generally falling everywhere in that GE - with the notable exception of many key marginals)

[Pete Whitehead]

I think we stand to gain more supporters from Labour if Corbyn wins, especially in some of the old industrial WWC areas where we have already made inroads (once his very North London preoccupations get a better airing). This does risk changing the internal dynamics in UKIP and pushing it in certain policy directions which might alienate 'Conservative leaning Kippers'. This rather than any temporary perception of it's relevance would be the kind of scenario in which I would leave but even so I would tolerate a degree paternalism as long as the core values were not compromised. To answer Boogies question more directly, I can foresee circumstances were I would leave UKIP or UKIP leaves me or indeed it becomes so small/irrelevant as to not bother with. It doesn't follow from that that I would join the Conservative party. I don't actually see any good reason for joining that party again and if UKIP had become eclipsed in this way it is likely that there would be some other party fulfilling a similar role and pursuing a similar agenda as the market for this is established and the Conservative party cannot cater to it.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Aug 13, 2015 10:24:37 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I think we stand to gain more supporters from Labour if Corbyn wins, especially in some of the old industrial WWC areas where we have already made inroads (once his very North London preoccupations get a better airing). This does risk changing the internal dynamics in UKIP and pushing it in certain policy directions which might alienate 'Conservative leaning Kippers'. This rather than any temporary perception of it's relevance would be the kind of scenario in which I would leave but even so I would tolerate a degree paternalism as long as the core values were not compromised. To answer Boogies question more directly, I can foresee circumstances were I would leave UKIP or UKIP leaves me or indeed it becomes so small/irrelevant as to not bother with. It doesn't follow from that that I would join the Conservative party. I don't actually see any good reason for joining that party again and if UKIP had become eclipsed in this way it is likely that there would be some other party fulfilling a similar role and pursuing a similar agenda as the market for this is established and the Conservative party cannot cater to it.

That's an interesting thought.  If his pro-Sinn Fein leanings get a real airing (as they surely will), and he has a repeat of his BBC Radio Ulster interview, then there will be some palpable anger in a fair few WWC areas.  Imagine the reaction in Birmingham, Warrington, any army town, and so forth.  Not to mention the more Unionist areas of Scotland that vote Labour.

And "North London preoccupations"-  Ed Milliband looks like Yosser Hughes compared to a teetotal, vegetarian, Islington Marxist.  

[carlton43]

This is a dead period for minor parties. All attention is on the majors as Cameron forms and beds in his new majoritarian administration....And Labour adjusts, dusts itself down and chooses a new leader. Meanwhile problems in NI and Scotland dominated by SNP. No actual Grexit or euro meltdown. Some problems with boat people and Calais incursions but nothing really major. No UKIP leadership to focus attention on us because Farage 'changed his mind'! Rather flaccid and listless UKIP 'leadership' as Farage has a post election energy dip. So our results reflect all that and are of scant concern to me.

There is still a lot to put right in the Conservative party before I go back; but it looks, sounds and smells much more like my sort of party than in 2010. It is still far to interested in military adventures on the coat-tails of America, too Green, too Internationalist and keen on Foreign Aid. It has no effective policy on Immigration at all, none on power generation, Heathrow and non-HSR rail improvement. There is no cohesive major social housing build programme and the continuation of Right-to-Buy and extension of it is madness. I doubt the negotiations on EU will produce much or than Referendum will be full-hearted nor fair. On balance not enough to re-rat for.

[Tony Otim]

Aug 13, 2015 10:50:35 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Aug 13, 2015 10:24:37 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I think we stand to gain more supporters from Labour if Corbyn wins, especially in some of the old industrial WWC areas where we have already made inroads (once his very North London preoccupations get a better airing). This does risk changing the internal dynamics in UKIP and pushing it in certain policy directions which might alienate 'Conservative leaning Kippers'. This rather than any temporary perception of it's relevance would be the kind of scenario in which I would leave but even so I would tolerate a degree paternalism as long as the core values were not compromised. To answer Boogies question more directly, I can foresee circumstances were I would leave UKIP or UKIP leaves me or indeed it becomes so small/irrelevant as to not bother with. It doesn't follow from that that I would join the Conservative party. I don't actually see any good reason for joining that party again and if UKIP had become eclipsed in this way it is likely that there would be some other party fulfilling a similar role and pursuing a similar agenda as the market for this is established and the Conservative party cannot cater to it.

That's an interesting thought.  If his pro-Sinn Fein leanings get a real airing (as they surely will), and he has a repeat of his BBC Radio Ulster interview, then there will be some palpable anger in a fair few WWC areas.  Imagine the reaction in Birmingham, Warrington, any army town, and so forth.  Not to mention the more Unionist areas of Scotland that vote Labour.

And "North London preoccupations"-  Ed Milliband looks like Yosser Hughes compared to a teetotal, vegetarian, Islington Marxist.  

Well Edinburgh South is probably the closest to Islington that you can find in Scotland and all the rest are already voting SNP

[Richard Allen]

Aug 13, 2015 10:50:35 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Aug 13, 2015 10:24:37 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I think we stand to gain more supporters from Labour if Corbyn wins, especially in some of the old industrial WWC areas where we have already made inroads (once his very North London preoccupations get a better airing). This does risk changing the internal dynamics in UKIP and pushing it in certain policy directions which might alienate 'Conservative leaning Kippers'. This rather than any temporary perception of it's relevance would be the kind of scenario in which I would leave but even so I would tolerate a degree paternalism as long as the core values were not compromised. To answer Boogies question more directly, I can foresee circumstances were I would leave UKIP or UKIP leaves me or indeed it becomes so small/irrelevant as to not bother with. It doesn't follow from that that I would join the Conservative party. I don't actually see any good reason for joining that party again and if UKIP had become eclipsed in this way it is likely that there would be some other party fulfilling a similar role and pursuing a similar agenda as the market for this is established and the Conservative party cannot cater to it.

That's an interesting thought.  If his pro-Sinn Fein leanings get a real airing (as they surely will), and he has a repeat of his BBC Radio Ulster interview, then there will be some palpable anger in a fair few WWC areas.  Imagine the reaction in Birmingham, Warrington, any army town, and so forth.  Not to mention the more Unionist areas of Scotland that vote Labour.

I don't think the reaction would be anywhere near as angry as you might think. People still talk about the pub bombings but apart from the families of the victims the raw emotion is long gone. The "Justice for the 26" campaign which aims to get the investigation re-opened is treated respectfully but gets very little real support.

[Deleted]

Best post-election result from UKIP so far (apart from Tendring). Crosskeys (Caerphilly) vote result: LAB - 354 - 50.6% (-4.3) PC - 179 - 25.6% (+12.9) UKIP - 166 - 23.7% (+23.7) Pity not to beat Plaid. The British and Welsh nationalists are currently running each other very close in Wales.

[gwynthegriff]

Aug 10, 2015 0:24:46 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Thanks for this Middle Englander - some very interesting analysis which does show that the results since May have not been uniformly positive for UKIP. Obviously some of the results, like Gorleston for example, have to be seen in their context and it is encouraging to see such strong progress in Craigton. Nevertheless while I appreciate your post, 'liking' it somehow doesn't seem appropriate..

Didn't Hirohito say something along those lines in 1945?

[carlton43]

But gwyn, we are a protest and two big issues party. The GE is over and two parties are in transit through leadership changes and major reconstructions. This is downtime for us. We are not the story and we have no big issue to push. We are nearly below the RADAR but we are most definitely still there. As problems arise, the Referendum looms, immigration figures rise, etc., we shall be back on the national song sheet and a real problem for at least one party. At present we are re-aiming the heavy artillery towards sectors of Labour, where we perceive the best targets will be found really quite soon. Please don't fret about our short term results because we aren't.