Countermanded/By-Elections - 9th and 11th June

[maxque]

9th June

Areley Kings & Riverside - Wyre Forest DC - Countermanded election due to the death of Nigel Thomas (ICHC), chairman of ICHC and former district councillor (he lost his seat in 2014)

It’s a new ward made of the former ward of Areley Kinds and parts of Mitton and Lickhill, but it would quite sad to put nothing here, so I’ll put Areley Kings results, since that was unstable and interesting (and the core of the new ward).

Areley Kings results:
2014: Lab 557, UKIP 454, ICHC 412, Con 400
2012: Lab 774, ICHC 467, Con 357
2011: Lab 691, Con 652, ICHC 588, LD 53
2010: KHHC 1176, Con 1096, Lab 757
Dec 2009: Lab 544, KHHC 421, Con 394, UKIP 63
2008: Con 666, Lab 621, KHHC 552, Liberal 54
2007: KHHC 648, Lab 637, Con 636 (that probably was a stressful count with recounts)
2006: KHHC 667, Con 657, Lab 396
2004: Con 841/673/669, Lab 733/628/595, KHHC 606, Ind 260 (new boundaries, but the ward stayed the same)
2003: Con 587, KHHC 478, Lab 467, LD 52
2002: Lab 695, Con 575, Ind 221

Cliff Brewer (Independent Community and Health Concern)
Martin Clapton (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
John Davis (The Green Party)
Malcolm Gough (Conservative Party Candidate)
Ken Henderson (Conservative Party Candidate)
Lin Henderson (Conservative Party Candidate)
Vi Higgs (Labour Party)
Ian Jones (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Rob Lloyd (Labour Party)
Trevor Newman (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Jamie Shaw (Labour Party)
Dixon Sheppard (Independent Community and Health Concern)
John Thomas (Independent Community and Health Concern)


11th June

Wallington South - Sutton LB - Colin Hall (Liberal Democrat), deputy leader of the Sutton Council, died.

2014: LD 1593/1558/1221, Con 825/649/571, UKIP 694, Keep Our St Hellier Hospital Party 377, Lab 374/358/283, Grn 301/274, ED 110
2010: LD 2674/2633/2439, Con 1891/1839/1684, Lab 559/542/455, Grn 544
2006: LD 1575/1550/1490, Con 1305/1247/1224, Grn 339/210, Lab 221/215/189
2002: LD 1465/1427/1411, Con 1074/1065/1004, Lab 232/211/183, Grn 207/185, OMRLP 89

Andy Beadle (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Steve Cook (Liberal Democrats)
Sarah Gwynn (Labour Party)
Duncan Mattey (Independent)
Rosa Rajendran (Green Party)
Jim Simms (The Conservative Party Candidate)


Tower Hamlets LB - Stepney Green - Alibor Choudhury (Tower Hamlets First) was disqualified. He was the electoral agent of Lutfur Rahman and was disqualified at the same than him, for the same reason (campaign was corrupt).

2014: THF 2023/1965, Lab 1568/954, Grn 411, UKIP 387, Con 209/166, LD 151

Sabina Akhtar (Labour Party)
Safiul Azam (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Kirsty Chestnutt (Green Party)
Abu Talha Chowdhury (Independent)
Will Dyer (Liberal Democrats)
Jessie Macneil-Brown (Something New)
Paul Shea (UK Independence Party (UKIP))

The mayoral Tower Hamlets by-election is on that day, too.

[Deleted]

andrewteale has an excellent summary of TH in his preview.

[middleenglander]

Turnout for Wyre Forest, Areley Kings & Riverside 26.9%.

I make it around 1,800 ballot papers, so possibly some 600 votes could secure a seat.

Recount for 3rd and 4th place.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

As predicted, looking close in Areley Kings:

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Labour took all three seats in the Areley Kings East ward of Stourport Town Council, but that's not the same boundaries as the district ward.

[middleenglander]

Jun 9, 2015 23:04:10 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Labour took all three seats in the Areley Kings East ward of Stourport Town Council, but that's not the same boundaries as the district ward.

Areley Kings East electorate is only circa 38% of the district ward. Last month Conservatives won both seats in Areley Kings West, which is another circa 33% of the ward, polling 38% to Labour's 23%. Not sure how the new 30% of the ward will split.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Result of the district is in - Conservatives have two seats, Labour has one. Labour runner up was three votes behind the second Conservative.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

WYRE FOREST Areley Kings and Riverside

HENDERSON Ken (Conservative Party Candidate) 662
SHAW Jamie (Labour Party) 633
HENDERSON Lin (Conservative Party Candidate) 564
HIGGS Vi (Labour Party) 561
LLOYD Rob (Labour Party) 532
GOUGH Malcolm (Conservative Party Candidate) 492
THOMAS John William Roland (Independent Community and Health Concern) 404
BREWER Cliff (Independent Community and Health Concern) 378
SHEPPARD Dixon Raymond (Independent Community and Health Concern) 326
CLAPTON Martin Royston (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 213
JONES Ian Wynne (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 209
NEWMAN Trevor William (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 196
DAVIS John Edward (The Green Party) 66

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Averages method:

Lab 32.2
C 32.0
ICHC 20.6
UKIP 11.5
GP 3.7

Highest vote method:

C 33.5
Lab 32.0
ICHC 20.4
UKIP 10.8
GP 3.3

[Deleted]

God damn, we need electoral reform for local government

[Davıd Boothroyd]

That's a non-sequitur. Given that UKIP vote transfers would mostly go to the Conservatives and ICHC and Green vote transfers would mostly go to Labour, the result in this ward would not have been much different if it had been STV.

[Tony Otim]

Jun 10, 2015 10:47:58 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

That's a non-sequitur. Given that UKIP vote transfers would mostly go to the Conservatives and ICHC and Green vote transfers would mostly go to Labour, the result in this ward would not have been much different if it had been STV.

Just speculation, but I would have thought the most likely result under STV would have been 1 Con, 1 Lab, 1 ICHC with enough Green and NOTA UKIP transfers going to them to get them close enough to the 25% quota to guarantee the third seat.

In reality under STV, you would probably only have had 7 candidates (2 Con, 2 Lab and 1 for each of the others).

[The Bishop]

Is the territory added to this seat less pro-Labour than the old Areley Kings ward?

[maxque]

Jun 11, 2015 9:43:30 GMT The Bishop said:

Is the territory added to this seat less pro-Labour than the old Areley Kings ward?

Clearly. It comes from Mitton and Lickwill wards, where Labour finished 3rd in 2011 and 2012, 4th in 2014.

For the record, parish wards  must fit within district wards. So, the added part is the new "Central" parish ward, which voted, on 7th May:

ICHC 641/485, UKIP 348/261, Lab 238/215

[peterl]

The full result for Stourport-on-Severn Parish Council Areley Kings East can be found here:

www.wyreforestdc.gov.uk/the-council/elections-and-voting/election-results/2015-results-breakdown/stourport-on-severn-areley-kings-east-election-results-9th-june-2015.aspx

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Turnout in Wallington South announced as 35.37%.

Relatively high, I would have said.

[iain]

[Davıd Boothroyd]

SUTTON Wallington South

Steve Cook (Liberal Democrats) 1,251
Jim Simms (The Conservative Party Candidate) 936
Sarah Gwynn (Labour Party) 181
Duncan Mattey (Independent) 180
Andy Beadle (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 164
Rosa Rajendran (Green Party) 122

[iain]

[bolbridge]

Jun 11, 2015 22:38:53 GMT iain said:

This result really doesn't tell us much in Con-Lib terms. Presumably the ward was closer in the general! Possible sign that UKIP are struggling and Lab vote may be slightly easier for Lib Dems to squeeze.