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Post by middleenglander on Jun 4, 2015 22:33:06 GMT
Cambridgeshire, Wisbech South - Conservative gain from UKIP sitting as an Independent| Party | 2015 votes | 2015 share | since 2013 | since 2009 | since 2005 | | Conservative | 1,020 | 63.8% | +32.4% | +17.4% | +10.2% | | UKIP | 298 | 18.6% | -19.6% | -7.9% | +2.3% | | Labour | 219 | 13.7% | -2.7% | +3.1% | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 61 | 3.8% | -10.1% | -5.7% | -26.2% | | Libertarian |
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| -7.0% |
| | Total votes | 1,598 |
| 79% | 80% | 44% |
Swing: UKIP to Conservative 26% since 2013, 12½% since 2009 and 4% since 2005
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iain
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Post by iain on Jun 4, 2015 22:43:45 GMT
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Post by marksenior on Jun 5, 2015 14:23:00 GMT
Kettering result
Lab 951 Con 873 Con 777 Con 771 Lab 623 Lab 614 UKIP 370 Green 119 Green 89 Green 82
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 5, 2015 14:29:19 GMT
Kettering result Lab 951 Con 873 Con 777 Con 771 Lab 623 Lab 614 UKIP 370 Green 119 Green 89 Green 82 Do you have the changes since the last election? |
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Post by marksenior on Jun 5, 2015 14:30:30 GMT
Kettering result Lab 951 Con 873 Con 777 Con 771 Lab 623 Lab 614 UKIP 370 Green 119 Green 89 Green 82 Do you have the changes since the last election? Sorry No , but the previous results are given on another thread . |
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Post by andrewteale on Jun 5, 2015 14:36:30 GMT
On highest vote, Labour are up 6 points and the Tories are little changed.
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iain
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Post by iain on Jun 5, 2015 14:42:01 GMT
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 5, 2015 14:43:21 GMT
Kettering result Lab 951 Con 873 Con 777 Con 771 Lab 623 Lab 614 UKIP 370 Green 119 Green 89 Green 82 The top Labour candidate and the Conservatives who came third and fourth were incumbents, so the runner up has displaced one of his incumbent colleagues. The 4th placed Tory was first alphabetically, so that's not the reason. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 5, 2015 14:52:30 GMT
Congratulations to the Conservatives. Those are quite excellent results. The winning bonus seems to be at our expense in these early days?
Good Labour result in Ketting to top the poll. Shows the primacy of a good/well known candidate as the other candidates faded a bit on the previous showing. UKIP reasonable start at about double our latest 10% polls showing. The Wisbech result is just a Conservative event. Greens and LDs look very weak.
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Post by Robert Waller on Jun 5, 2015 16:09:51 GMT
On average per candidate I think it may be
Con 40%
Lab 36%
UKIP 18%
Green 5%
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 5, 2015 18:41:19 GMT
The UKIP proportion over both is 18+ which in post election doldrum looks good enough for an established core vote. Wisbech is a bit of a one off and hardly an established long held seat.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 6, 2015 8:42:48 GMT
That's definitely special pleading. It's the more middle-class of the Wisbech seats, but the town still isn't naturally Tory (and given the salience of immigration as a political issue and the demographics, 18% is a very poor result). What we've got here is a story about UKIP, like Labour before them, failing to meet the aspirations of the town and the Tories hence winning by default.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 6, 2015 9:03:30 GMT
Wisbech is a very old, nice and essentially conservative town in a conservative area. The UKIP flurry was a mid term flirtation and nothing more. That is not our demographic. But I am happy with the 18% across the two as it comfortably outpaces the national polls which admittedly are diluted by Scotland and London. This is a not a story about UKIP but about the strength of the Conservatives and the resilience of Labour with a good candidate.
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Post by marksenior on Jun 6, 2015 10:30:26 GMT
Wisbech is a very old, nice and essentially conservative town in a conservative area. The UKIP flurry was a mid term flirtation and nothing more. That is not our demographic. But I am happy with the 18% across the two as it comfortably outpaces the national polls which admittedly are diluted by Scotland and London. This is a not a story about UKIP but about the strength of the Conservatives and the resilience of Labour with a good candidate. UKIP got 26% of the vote here back in 2009 and 16% back in 2005 so they have fought the seat hard for a number of years . In the 3 constituent DC wards in the May elections UKIP got 21 , 30 and 31 % of the vote |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 6, 2015 11:35:23 GMT
Wisbech is a very old, nice and essentially conservative town in a conservative area. The UKIP flurry was a mid term flirtation and nothing more. That is not our demographic. But I am happy with the 18% across the two as it comfortably outpaces the national polls which admittedly are diluted by Scotland and London. This is a not a story about UKIP but about the strength of the Conservatives and the resilience of Labour with a good candidate. UKIP got 26% of the vote here back in 2009 and 16% back in 2005 so they have fought the seat hard for a number of years . In the 3 constituent DC wards in the May elections UKIP got 21 , 30 and 31 % of the vote OK. Not good. I'm not tribal and in low expectation in the backwash of a big Cons GE victory. The dynamics change for us according to the public mood relating to the majors. They are not in protest mode at the moment but feeling protective to Labour and ebullient about Cons. Slack water for us and 18% is fine. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 6, 2015 19:45:31 GMT
Wisbech is a very old, nice and essentially conservative town in a conservative area. The UKIP flurry was a mid term flirtation and nothing more. That is not our demographic. But I am happy with the 18% across the two as it comfortably outpaces the national polls which admittedly are diluted by Scotland and London. This is a not a story about UKIP but about the strength of the Conservatives and the resilience of Labour with a good candidate. I'm not convinced the Labour vote really signifies here. It's pretty much at bedrock, or at least I hope it hasn't got further to fall. I am convinced you haven't been to Wisbech any time recently. It's got pockets of significant deprivation, an elderly population, huge numbers of 'left behind' voters and noticeable resentment of the immigrant population. It's also arguably a coastal town. If it's not your demographic, I don't know where is. I'm not saying UKIP should have won this. But I do think that 18% is a poor result and the blame for that can almost certainly be ascribed to the deeply uninspiring nature of the local branch. |
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Post by middleenglander on Jun 30, 2015 23:30:44 GMT
Cambridgeshire, Wisbech South - Conservative gain from UKIP sitting as an Independent| Party | 2015 votes | 2015 share | since 2013 | since 2009 | since 2005 | | Conservative | 1,020 | 63.8% | +32.4% | +17.4% | +10.2% | | UKIP | 298 | 18.6% | -19.6% | -7.9% | +2.3% | | Labour | 219 | 13.7% | -2.7% | +3.1% | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 61 | 3.8% | -10.1% | -5.7% | -26.2% | | Libertarian |
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| -7.0% |
| | Total votes | 1,598 |
| 79% | 80% | 44% |
Swing: UKIP to Conservative 26% since 2013, 12½% since 2009 and 4% since 2005 Council now 33 Conservative, 13 Liberal Democrats, 11 UKIP, 7 Labour, 4 Independent and 1 vacancy previous Liberal Democrat, by-election 25th June Sutton, Wallington South - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2015 votes | 2015 share | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | since 2010 "top" | since 2010 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 1,251 | 44.1% | +6.9% | +7.2% | -3.0% | -3.2% | | Conservative | 936 | 33.0% | +13.7% | +15.8% | -0.3% | -0.1% | | Labour | 181 | 6.4% | -2.4% | -2.2% | -3.5% | -3.1% | | Independent | 180 | 6.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | UKIP | 164 | 5.8% | -10.5% | -11.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green | 122 | 4.3% | -2.7% | -3.0% | -5.3% | -5.7% | | Keep Our Hospital |
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| -2.6% | -2.8% |
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| 66% | 72% | 50% | 52% |
Swing Liberal Democrat to Conservative 3½% to 4¼% since 2010 and ~1½% since 2010 Council now 44 Liberal Democrat, 8 Conservative and 2 Independent Tower Hamlets, Stepany Green - Labour gain from Tower Hamlets First (THF) standing as Independent| Party | 2015 votes | 2015 share | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | | Labour | 1,643 | 42.1% | +9.1% | +13.4% | | Independent / THF | 1,472 | 37.7% | -4.9% | -7.7% | | Green | 272 | 7.0% | -1.7% | -2.4% | | UKIP | 203 | 5.2% | -2.9% | -3.6% | | Conservative | 158 | 4.0% | -0.4% | -0.2% | | Liberal Democrat | 114 | 2.9% | -0.3% | -0.5% | | Something New | 40 | 1.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Total votes | 3,902 |
| 82% | 89% |
Swing Tower Hamlets First / Independent to Labour 7% based on "top" candidate and 10½% on "average" Council now 23 Labour, 16 Independent Group / formerly THF, 5 Conservative and 1 Independent Cambridgeshire, Romsey - Labour gain from Liberal Democrats| Party | 2015 B votes | 2015 B share | since 2015 DC | since 2014 DC | since 2013 CC | since 2009 CC | since 2005 CC | | Labour | 829 | 37.3% | -0.4% | -4.3% | +5.6% | +16.8% | +4.0% | | Liberal Democrat | 782 | 35.2% | +4.9% | -2.6% | -12.7% | +0.8% | -9.8% | | Green | 467 | 21.0% | -0.9% | +7.4% | +15.1% | +8.7% | +10.2% | | Conservative | 100 | 4.5% | -5.6% | -2.6% | +0.1% | -6.7% | -5.2% | | UKIP | 46 | 2.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -3.0% | -1.9% | +0.9% | | Socialist |
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| 51% | 77% | 95% | 92% | 60% |
2014 & 2015 District Council elections on same boundaries as 2005, 2009 and 2013 County Council elections Swing Labour to Liberal Democrat ~2.6% since May and ~0.8% since 2014 but Liberal Democrat to Labour ~9% since 2013, ~8% since 2009 and ~7% since 2005 Council now 33 Conservative, 13 Liberal Democrat, 11 UKIP, 8 Labour and 4 Independent Cardiff, Pentyrch - Conservative hold | Party | 2015 votes | 2015 share | since 2012 | since 2008 B | since 2008 | since 2004 | | Conservative | 561 | 40.2% | -14.2% | -1.7% | +5.9% | +10.1% | | Plaid Cymru | 543 | 39.0% | +26.9% | +29.2% | +19.2% | +13.3% | | Labour | 234 | 16.8% | -12.3% | -24.2% | -14.1% | -17.8% | | Independent | 24 | 1.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -5.4% | from nowhere | | Green | 22 | 1.6% | -1.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 10 | 0.7% | -0.8% | -6.6% | -7.2% | -8.9% | | Total votes | 1,394 |
| 98% | 105% | 100% | 100% |
Swing not particularly meaningful Note that the number of votes cast across 5 elections has been been very similar ranging from 1,322 to 1,418 with 1,394 in this by-election Council now 46 Labour, 15 Liberal Democrat, 9 Conservative, 3 Plaid Cymru and 2 Independent
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 1, 2015 0:41:46 GMT
There were 5 by-elections during June with 3 (60%) chaging hands. The results can be summarised by: | Party | Candidates | Defended | Retained | Gained | Lost | Won | retention rate | | Conservative | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | 100% | | Labour | 5 |
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| 1 | 1 | 50% | | Plaid Cymru | 1 |
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| | UKIP | 4 | 1 |
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| 1 |
| 0% | | Green | 4 |
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| | Independent | 3 |
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| | Something New | 1 |
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| | Tower Hamlets First |
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| 0% | | Total | 28 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 40% |
Tower Hamlets First is no longer a registered party so defended the seat as an Independent Conservatives retained Cardiff, Pentyrch with a 1.2% majority over Plaid Cymru and - gained Cambridgeshire, Wisbech South from UKIP with a 45.2% majority Labour gained Tower Hamlets, Stepney Green from Tower Hamlets First with a 4.4% majority and - gained Cambridgeshire, Romsey from Liberal Democrats with a 2.1% majority Liberal Democrats retained Sutton, Wallington South with an 11.1% majority over Conservatives. |
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