Results of deferred elections - June 2015

[middleenglander]

Kettering, Rothwell - Conservatives retain 2 seats, Labour retain 1

Party	2015 top	2015 top	2015 average	2015 average	since 2011 top	since 2011 average	since 2007 top	since 2007 average
Conservative	853	37.2%	800	40.1%	+0.7%	+1.9%	-19.0%	-16.6%
Labour	951	41.5%	729	37.6%	+5.9%	+4.6%	-2.4%	-6.8%
UKIP	370	16.1%	370	18.5%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Green	119	5.2%	97	4.6%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent					-20.4%	-21.8%
Liberal Democrat					-7.6%	-8.1%
Total votes	2,293		1,996		76%	71%	100%	91%

Conservative, Labour and Green each had 3 candidates, UKIP 1

Swing based on top candidate vote Conservative to Labour ~2½% since 2011 and ~8¼% since 2007
- but based on average vote Conservative to Labour ~1½% since 2011 and ~5% since 2007

Council political composition is now: Conservative 27, Labour 8, Independent 1

Wyre Forest, Areley Kings & Riverside - Conservative 2 seats - first and third - Labour 1 seat - second
- boundary changes with the former Areley Kings ward (around 70½% of new electorate) and elements of the former Lickhill & Mitton wards (29½%)

Party	2015 top	2015 top	2015 average	2015 average		2014 share *	2012 share *	2011 share *	2010 share *
Conservative	662	33.5%	573	32.0%		21.9%	22.3%	32.9%	36.2%
Labour	633	32.0%	575	32.2%		30.6%	48.4%	34.8%	25.0%
Health Concern	404	20.4%	369	20.6%		22.6%	29.2%	29.6%	38.8%
UKIP	213	10.8%	206	11.5%		24.9%
Green	66	3.3%	66	3.7%
Liberal Democrat								2.7%
Total votes	1,978		1,789			1,823	1,598	1,984	3,029

Conservative, Labour, UKIP and Health Concern each had 3 candidates, Green 1

* former Areley Kings Ward alone

Council political composition is now: Conservative 23, Labour 3, Independent 3, Health Concern 2, Liberal 1, UKIP 1

[Robert Waller]

www.wyreforestdc.gov.uk/the-council/elections-and-voting/election-results/2015-results-breakdown/areley-kings-and-riverside.aspx

I spent ages copying these out then pressed the wrong button and they disappeared.

[middleenglander]

Kettering, Rothwell - Conservatives retain 2 seats, Labour retain 1

Party	2015 top	2015 top	2015 av'age	2015 av'age	since 2011 top	since 2011 av'age	since 2007 top	since 2007 av'age
Conservative	853	37.2%	800	40.1%	+0.7%	+1.9%	-19.0%	-16.6%
Labour	951	41.5%	729	37.6%	+5.9%	+4.6%	-2.4%	-6.8%
UKIP	370	16.1%	370	18.5%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Green	119	5.2%	97	4.6%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent					-20.4%	-21.8%
Liberal Democrat					-7.6%	-8.1%
Total votes	2,293		1,996		76%	71%	100%	91%

Conservative, Labour and Green each had 3 candidates, UKIP 1

Swing based on top candidate vote Conservative to Labour ~2½% since 2011 and ~8¼% since 2007
- but based on average vote Conservative to Labour ~1½% since 2011 and ~5% since 2007

Council political composition is now: Conservative 27, Labour 8, Independent 1

Wyre Forest, Areley Kings & Riverside - Conservative 2 seats - first and third - Labour 1 seat - second
- boundary changes with the former Areley Kings ward (around 70½% of new electorate) and elements of the former Lickhill & Mitton wards (29½%)

Party	2015 top	2015 top	2015 average	2015 average		2014 share *	2012 share *	2011 share *	2010 share *
Conservative	662	33.5%	573	32.0%		21.9%	22.3%	32.9%	36.2%
Labour	633	32.0%	575	32.2%		30.6%	48.4%	34.8%	25.0%
Health Concern	404	20.4%	369	20.6%		22.6%	29.2%	29.6%	38.8%
UKIP	213	10.8%	206	11.5%		24.9%
Green	66	3.3%	66	3.7%
Liberal Democrat								2.7%
Total votes	1,978		1,789			1,823	1,598	1,984	3,029

Conservative, Labour, UKIP and Health Concern each had 3 candidates, Green 1

* former Areley Kings Ward alone

Council political composition is now: Conservative 23, Labour 3, Independent 3, Health Concern 2, Liberal 1, UKIP 1

Christchurch, North Highcliffe & Walkford - Conservatives retain 2 seats

Party	2015 top	2015 top	2015 average	2015 average	since 2011 top	since 2011 average	since 2007 top	since 2007 average
Conservative	793	63.4%	784	64.1%	-11.5%	-9.6%	-1.9%	+0.0%
UKIP	315	25.2%	302	24.7%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Labour	143	11.4%	137	11.2%	-13.7%	-15.0%	+0.9%	+0.4%
Liberal Democrat							-24.4%	-25.1%
Total votes	1,251		1,223		82%	84%	73%	74%

Conservative, Labour and UKIP each had 2 candidates

Swing not meaningful

Council political composition is now: Conservative 21, Independent 2, UKIP 1

Mole Valley, Holmwoods - Liberal Democrats retain 1 seat and gain 1 seat from UKIP

Party	2015 top	2015 top	2015 average	2015 average	since 2014	since 2012	since 2011	since 2010
Liberal Democrat	804	50.2%	786	50.9%	+24.7%	+5.9%	+9.2%	+5.7%
Conservative	492	30.7%	475	30.8%	+2.1%	+3.1%	-5.1%	-5.5%
UKIP	201	12.5%	191	12.3%	-19.3%	-5.4%	+0.8%	+2.8%
Green	105	6.6%	91	5.9%	-0.7%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Labour					-6.9%	-9.5%	-10.9%	-8.9%
Total votes	1,602		1,543		80%	96%	75%	46%

Conservative, Liberal Democrat, UKIP and Green each had 2 candidates

Swing since 2014 not paticularly meaningful but based on average vote Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 1½% since 2012, ~7% since 2011 and ~5½% since 2010

Council political composition is now: Conservative 23, Liberal Democrat 12, Independent 6

[Pete Whitehead]

Mole Valley - Holmwoods:

LD 804/768
Con 492/458
UKIP 201/180
Grn 105/78

Aggregate %s LD 50.9 Con 30.8 UKIP 12.3 Green 5.9

[The Bishop]

Yes, we want Gloy Plopwell here

[ColinJ]

The deferred election in Abbots Langley and Bedmond ward, Abbots Langley PC, took place on Wednesday 24 June. It was due to be held on 7 May together with the Three Rivers DC election in the ward of the same name and boundaries.

The postponed poll was caused by the death, after close of nominations, of Labour candidate John Sedlacek. His place in the poll was taken by Steven Crane. All the other candidates remained for the postponed poll, except Labour candidate Joanne Cox who withdrew her nomination in favour of one for Marie-Louise Nolan. It is interesting to see how the passage of a few weeks, and a much lower turnout, affected the performance of the different parties.

On 7 May the result in the ward was:

David J. Major                    LDem    1496    (42.3%)
Andrew D. O'Brien             C           1467    (41.5%)
Ahmad-Said Namdarkhan  Lab          573    (16.2%)

Turnout: 71.3%


On 24 June the result was:

Drusilla J. Lay                     LDem      780
David J. Major                    LDem      771
Brenda M. Kersey               LDem      744
Jean Bowman                     LDem      704
John S. Wyatt                      LDem      703
Andrew D. O'Brien             C              359
Ian M. Holmes                    Lab          229
Steven P. Crane                  Lab          217
Mary Hall                            Lab          204
Ahmad-Said Namdarkhan   Lab          199
Marie-Louise S. Nolan        Lab          191

Turnout: 23.8%

Using 'top' votes, vote shares were: LDem 57.0%, C 26.2%, Lab 16.7%
Using 'average' votes, vote shares were: LDem 56.6%, C 27.5%, Lab 15.9%

[Pete Whitehead]

Andrew O'Brien must be pissed off. He would have had a very good chance of getting elected to the parish council had the poll not been postponed. Alternatively he may be relieved.
It is astonishing that the Tories field so few candidates for parish elections in a place like this. Last year they basically surrendered control of Chorleywood parish council to the Lib Dems by fielding so few candidates, even in their strong wards

[middleenglander]

Kettering, Rothwell - Conservatives retain 2 seats, Labour retain 1

Party	2015 top	2015 top	2015 av'age	2015 av'age	since 2011 top	since 2011 av'age	since 2007 top	since 2007 av'age
Conservative	853	37.2%	800	40.1%	+0.7%	+1.9%	-19.0%	-16.6%
Labour	951	41.5%	729	37.6%	+5.9%	+4.6%	-2.4%	-6.8%
UKIP	370	16.1%	370	18.5%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Green	119	5.2%	97	4.6%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent					-20.4%	-21.8%
Liberal Democrat					-7.6%	-8.1%
Total votes	2,293		1,996		76%	71%	100%	91%

Conservative, Labour and Green each had 3 candidates, UKIP 1

Swing based on top candidate vote Conservative to Labour ~2½% since 2011 and ~8¼% since 2007
- but based on average vote Conservative to Labour ~1½% since 2011 and ~5% since 2007

Council political composition is now: Conservative 27, Labour 8, Independent 1

Wyre Forest, Areley Kings & Riverside - Conservative 2 seats - first and third - Labour 1 seat - second
- boundary changes with the former Areley Kings ward (around 70½% of new electorate) and elements of the former Lickhill & Mitton wards (29½%)

Party	2015 top	2015 top	2015 average	2015 average		2014 share *	2012 share *	2011 share *	2010 share *
Conservative	662	33.5%	573	32.0%		21.9%	22.3%	32.9%	36.2%
Labour	633	32.0%	575	32.2%		30.6%	48.4%	34.8%	25.0%
Health Concern	404	20.4%	369	20.6%		22.6%	29.2%	29.6%	38.8%
UKIP	213	10.8%	206	11.5%		24.9%
Green	66	3.3%	66	3.7%
Liberal Democrat								2.7%
Total votes	1,978		1,789			1,823	1,598	1,984	3,029

Conservative, Labour, UKIP and Health Concern each had 3 candidates, Green 1

* former Areley Kings Ward alone

Council political composition is now: Conservative 23, Labour 3, Independent 3, Health Concern 2, Liberal 1, UKIP 1

Christchurch, North Highcliffe & Walkford - Conservatives retain 2 seats

Party	2015 top	2015 top	2015 average	2015 average	since 2011 top	since 2011 average	since 2007 top	since 2007 average
Conservative	793	63.4%	784	64.1%	-11.5%	-9.6%	-1.9%	+0.0%
UKIP	315	25.2%	302	24.7%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Labour	143	11.4%	137	11.2%	-13.7%	-15.0%	+0.9%	+0.4%
Liberal Democrat							-24.4%	-25.1%
Total votes	1,251		1,223		82%	84%	73%	74%

Conservative, Labour and UKIP each had 2 candidates

Swing not meaningful

Council political composition is now: Conservative 21, Independent 2, UKIP 1

Mole Valley, Holmwoods - Liberal Democrats retain 1 seat and gain 1 seat from UKIP

Party	2015 top	2015 top	2015 average	2015 average	since 2014	since 2012	since 2011	since 2010
Liberal Democrat	804	50.2%	786	50.9%	+24.7%	+5.9%	+9.2%	+5.7%
Conservative	492	30.7%	475	30.8%	+2.1%	+3.1%	-5.1%	-5.5%
UKIP	201	12.5%	191	12.3%	-19.3%	-5.4%	+0.8%	+2.8%
Green	105	6.6%	91	5.9%	-0.7%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Labour					-6.9%	-9.5%	-10.9%	-8.9%
Total votes	1,602		1,543		80%	96%	75%	46%

Conservative, Liberal Democrat, UKIP and Green each had 2 candidates

Swing since 2014 not paticularly meaningful but based on average vote Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 1½% since 2012, ~7% since 2011 and ~5½% since 2010

Council political composition is now: Conservative 23, Liberal Democrat 12, Independent 6

South Kesteven, Market & West Deeping - Independents retain 2 seats, Conservative retains 1 seat 

Party	2015 votes	2015 share	since 2011 average	since 2007 average
Independent Broughton	612	23.2%	-1.0%	+0.6%
Independent Baxter **	609	23.1%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Conservative *	605	22.9%	-1.7%	-0.3%
Independent Shelton	426	16.2%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Liberal Democrat	229	8.7%	from nowhere	from nowhere
UKIP *	155	5.9%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent Howard			-24.1%	-25.3%
Independent Fraylich			-15.2%
Green *			-11.9%	-18.7%
Labour				-10.1%
Total votes	2,636		68%	83%

* UKIP had 3 candidates in 2015, Green had 3 candidates in 2011 but 1 in 2007, Conservatives had 2 candidates in 2011 with one being elected
- the shares and change in shares are based on the average number of votes  for these parties
- although the total vote changs since 2007 and 2011 are based on the total number of votes cast for all candidates
** stood as Green candidate in 2007 & 2011, polling highest Green vote in 2011 double that of fellow candidates

Swing is not particularly meaningful although small

Council political composition is now Conservative 45, Independent 6, Labour 3, UKIP 1, Unaligned 1

[middleenglander]

There were 5 deferred elections for a total of 13 seats in 2015, all held during June. In summary, 3 of the elections for 8 seats saw no change in representation since 2011 with 1 seeing the seat arising from the annual election being retained by the Liberal Democrats who also won a casual vacancy in the same ward defended by UKIP.  The 5th election was in a new larger ward following boundary changes where the previous 3 Labour councillors were contesting the ward but only 1 was elected along with 2 Conservatives. This has been classed as 2 Conservative gains / 2 Labour losses.

Party	Candidates	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won	retention rate
Conservative	11	5	5	2		7	100%
Labour	8	4	2		2	2	50%
Liberal Democrats	3	1	1	1		2	100%
UKIP	11	1			1		0%
Green	6
Health Concern	3
Independent *	3	2	2			2	100%
Total	45	13	10	3	3	13	77%

* all in the one ward

Conservatives retained 2 seats in Kettering, Rothwell (3 seat ward), 2 seats in Christchurch, North Highcliffe & Walkford (2 seat ward) and 1 seat in South Kesteven, Market & West Deeping (3 seat ward)
- and won 2 seats in Wyre Forest, Areley  Kings & Riverside classed as 2 gains
Labour retained 1 seat in Kettering, Rothwell (3 seat ward) and won 1 seat in Areley Kings & Riverside (3 seat ward)
Liberal Democrats retained 1 seat in Mole Valley Holmwoods and gained 1 seat from UKIP in the same ward
Independents retained 2 seats in South Kesteven, Market & West Deeping (3 seat ward)

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I'm not sure it's accurate to describe Areley Kings and Riverside as notionally three Labour seats. The fact that the previous Areley Kings ward was so close and the added section north of the Severn is an area where Labour are particularly weak tends to suggest it would have been Labour in 2012 only.

[middleenglander]

Jun 26, 2015 8:10:20 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I'm not sure it's accurate to describe Areley Kings and Riverside as notionally three Labour seats. The fact that the previous Areley Kings ward was so close and the added section north of the Severn is an area where Labour are particularly weak tends to suggest it would have been Labour in 2012 only.

As you know, David, I have kept my identity closely guarded. However, I do know a reasonable amount about this area and would say it is a seat that in neutral years would tend to Labour. If it had been held on General Election day, which was not a neutral time, I think the Conservatives would have done better but the result may still have been 2 Conservatives / 1 Labour. Personalilities are likely to have an above average impact certainly on the old seat.