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BMG
Nov 30, 2019 18:26:59 GMT
Post by curiousliberal on Nov 30, 2019 18:26:59 GMT
Forgive my maths but 650 - 8 SF - 1 speaker = 641 641/ 2 = 320.5, therefore 321 for a majority 10 DUP + 311 Tory = 321 Therefore Tory minority on c&s. Unlikely but perfectly plausible for the DUP to lose Belfast North, hold south on a perfect SDLP-ALL vote split and gain North Down. Resulting in this 10 DUP-8SF split a. The DUP won't support Johnson's deal, even with bribes. b. While Tory candidates have pledged support for Johnson's deal some may feel that their obligation is lifted if adjustments are required to suit the DUP.
c. While Labour would produce a deal that better suited the DUP I can't see a circumstance in which they would give any support to a Labour minority government (or be asked for that support).
a. The DUP will not support his deal, and have said they will not support a Conservative government, but they could be bribed to abstain or vote for his govenrment on a negative basis against "the alternative Corbyn-led government". That's still C&S, it's just hilariously dysfunctional over Brexit. b. Agreed. c. Foster did not rule out (though she was never explicitly asked) the DUP abstaining on a Labour confidence motion - she just said she wouldn't vote in favour of one IIRC.
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Rural Radical
Labour
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Nov 30, 2019 18:27:59 GMT
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Post by Rural Radical on Nov 30, 2019 18:27:59 GMT
Clearly a Labour minority. Whatever happens I doubt the DUP won’t get 10 seats. Forgive my maths but 650 - 8 SF - 1 speaker = 641 641/ 2 = 320.5, therefore 321 for a majority 10 DUP + 311 Tory = 321 Therefore Tory minority on c&s. Unlikely but perfectly plausible for the DUP to lose Belfast North, hold south on a perfect SDLP-ALL vote split and gain North Down. Resulting in this 10 DUP-8SF split There was a typo in my post. I think that South Belfast is gone for the DUP and maybe East Belfast
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BMG
Nov 30, 2019 18:32:08 GMT
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Post by thirdchill on Nov 30, 2019 18:32:08 GMT
There seems to be a lot of bunching of polls now with results between pollsters becoming more similar as time passes.
Either they are all correct or there is some form of herding going on......
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edgbaston
Labour
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BMG
Nov 30, 2019 18:32:38 GMT
Post by edgbaston on Nov 30, 2019 18:32:38 GMT
Forgive my maths but 650 - 8 SF - 1 speaker = 641 641/ 2 = 320.5, therefore 321 for a majority 10 DUP + 311 Tory = 321 Therefore Tory minority on c&s. Unlikely but perfectly plausible for the DUP to lose Belfast North, hold south on a perfect SDLP-ALL vote split and gain North Down. Resulting in this 10 DUP-8SF split a. The DUP won't support Johnson's deal, even with bribes. b. While Tory candidates have pledged support for Johnson's deal some may feel that their obligation is lifted if adjustments are required to suit the DUP.
c. While Labour would produce a deal that better suited the DUP I can't see a circumstance in which they would give any support to a Labour minority government (or be asked for that support).
It's one thing to suggest the DUP still wouldn't support the Boris deal (very likely). It's another thing to suggest they'd sit by and abstain allowing a Labour government. As we have found out votes on Brexit deals are not matters of confidence.
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edgbaston
Labour
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Nov 30, 2019 18:35:07 GMT
Post by edgbaston on Nov 30, 2019 18:35:07 GMT
Forgive my maths but 650 - 8 SF - 1 speaker = 641 641/ 2 = 320.5, therefore 321 for a majority 10 DUP + 311 Tory = 321 Therefore Tory minority on c&s. Unlikely but perfectly plausible for the DUP to lose Belfast North, hold south on a perfect SDLP-ALL vote split and gain North Down. Resulting in this 10 DUP-8SF split There was a typo in my post. I think that South Belfast is gone for the DUP and maybe East Belfast Where?
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BMG
Nov 30, 2019 18:42:59 GMT
Post by curiousliberal on Nov 30, 2019 18:42:59 GMT
Another poll showing a small uptick for the BXP. The Brexit Party doing better at this stage than UKIP were in 2017 (a low bar I know). Remember BXP is standing in less than half the seats so 4% here is equivalent to around 8% without the seat filter. Probably higher than that given that the seats they've stood down in are somewhat more likely than the ones they're standing in to have voted Leave.
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Post by rivers10 on Nov 30, 2019 18:48:01 GMT
One thing I'd point out is the substantial Green Vote in that poll, bearing in mind the Greens only got 4% in their high water mark of 2015 (and I don't see them replicating that again if I'm honest) this thus leaves a further 1-3 points for Labour to squeeze from the Greens which I'm personally confident we can manage.
If that's born out then the Tory lead falls to between 5 and 3 points and we're really in squeaky bum time.
The Green vote may be inflated because of a number of free runs given by LD/Plaid Cymru (in which case you're dealing more with a need to squeeze extra LD/Plaid voters). I'm sceptical, the Greens are only getting free runs as part of he Remain Alliance in (to my knowledge) a small handful of seats which obviously includes Brighton Pavilion where there was no Lib Dem candidate last time and the Isle of Wight where the Lb Dem vote was meagre. In Wales they are only getting a free run in (randomly) the Vale of Glamorgan which is rubbish for the Libs and Plaid anyway. This wont amount to much of anything in national polls, honestly I imagine all this equals at best an extra 10,000 votes that the Greens didn't get in 2017.
Indeed this is easily outweighed by the Greens overall tally of contested seats which has increased by 40 from 2017 up to 497 but this is 50% down to Scotland where the Greens only contested two seats in 2017 but are now contesting 22. Even if they only manage 1-2% in all these Scottish seats that's and extra 20 odd thousand votes and easily outweighs the extra support they'd get from Plaid and the Lib Dems standing aside in a couple of seats.
So yeah I don't buy the argument that the Green vote is inflated by several points cos of some mythical hundreds of thousands of additional votes from Plaid and Lib Dem supporters who will stubbornly back the Greens come what may. Makes no sense at all.
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BMG
Nov 30, 2019 18:56:17 GMT
Post by curiousliberal on Nov 30, 2019 18:56:17 GMT
The Green vote may be inflated because of a number of free runs given by LD/Plaid Cymru (in which case you're dealing more with a need to squeeze extra LD/Plaid voters). I'm sceptical, the Greens are only getting free runs as part of he Remain Alliance in (to my knowledge) a small handful of seats which obviously includes Brighton Pavilion where there was no Lib Dem candidate last time and the Isle of Wight where the Lb Dem vote was meagre. In Wales they are only getting a free run in (randomly) the Vale of Glamorgan which is rubbish for the Libs and Plaid anyway. This wont amount to much of anything in national polls, honestly I imagine all this equals at best an extra 10,000 votes that the Greens didn't get in 2017.
Indeed this is easily outweighed by the Greens overall tally of contested seats which has increased by 40 from 2017 up to 497 but this is 50% down to Scotland where the Greens only contested two seats in 2017 but are now contesting 22. Even if they only manage 1-2% in all these Scottish seats that's and extra 20 odd thousand votes and easily outweighs the extra support they'd get from Plaid and the Lib Dems standing aside in a couple of seats.
So yeah I don't buy the argument that the Green vote is inflated by several points cos of some mythical hundreds of thousands of additional votes from Plaid and Lib Dem supporters who will stubbornly back the Greens come what may. Makes no sense at all.
I don't think the Remain alliance is responsible for all or even most of it, but getting a free run in a constituency like Dulwich can could deliver up to 10k+ votes by itself (that figure will be even higher in Bristol West). They get sole access to the 'anti-Tory, but never Labour' section of the electorate in 10 constituencies (I had thought they'd been given more) which should lead to some very outsized Green vote shares. That the parties are now contesting more seats will be a more significant factor.
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Post by rivers10 on Nov 30, 2019 19:12:04 GMT
I'm sceptical, the Greens are only getting free runs as part of he Remain Alliance in (to my knowledge) a small handful of seats which obviously includes Brighton Pavilion where there was no Lib Dem candidate last time and the Isle of Wight where the Lb Dem vote was meagre. In Wales they are only getting a free run in (randomly) the Vale of Glamorgan which is rubbish for the Libs and Plaid anyway. This wont amount to much of anything in national polls, honestly I imagine all this equals at best an extra 10,000 votes that the Greens didn't get in 2017.
Indeed this is easily outweighed by the Greens overall tally of contested seats which has increased by 40 from 2017 up to 497 but this is 50% down to Scotland where the Greens only contested two seats in 2017 but are now contesting 22. Even if they only manage 1-2% in all these Scottish seats that's and extra 20 odd thousand votes and easily outweighs the extra support they'd get from Plaid and the Lib Dems standing aside in a couple of seats.
So yeah I don't buy the argument that the Green vote is inflated by several points cos of some mythical hundreds of thousands of additional votes from Plaid and Lib Dem supporters who will stubbornly back the Greens come what may. Makes no sense at all.
I don't think the Remain alliance is responsible for all or even most of it, but getting a free run in a constituency like Dulwich can could deliver up to 10k+ votes by itself (that figure will be even higher in Bristol West). They get sole access to the 'anti-Tory, but never Labour' section of the electorate in 10 constituencies (I had thought they'd been given more) which should lead to some very outsized Green vote shares. That the parties are now contesting more seats will be a more significant factor. But even if we combine the extra votes in Scotland (about 20,000 extra votes) plus assume the Greens get around 10,000 extra votes per seat in the handful they've been given free runs in (minus Brighton obviously) that's another 70-80 thousand votes (almost certainly an inflated figure) So maybe 100,000 extra votes from pacts and standing in more seats.
The Greens got 525,000 votes in 2017 and that equalled 1.6% of the national vote. They got 1.15 million in 2015 and that equalled 3.8% of the national vote. Turnout dependant obviously but 5% means they'd be on about 1.4 to 1.5 million votes nationwide, that's a million odd more than last election, the Greens "might" manage that but if they do its from an organic rise in their support not from electoral pacts which as I said nets them 10's of thousands of extra votes at best not a million.
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BMG
Nov 30, 2019 19:13:10 GMT
Post by tonygreaves on Nov 30, 2019 19:13:10 GMT
I don't think they'd win a majority with a 6% poll lead. Anyway, the momentum is with Labour so I expect a further swing in the next two weeks. The 5% drop in the Lib Dem vote is very telling too. I voted Lib Dem back in May but I’ll probably end up voting Labour because Boris is far more repellent to me than Corbyn. The you will get what you deserve!
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 30, 2019 19:13:54 GMT
The 5% drop in the Lib Dem vote is very telling too. I voted Lib Dem back in May but I’ll probably end up voting Labour because Boris is far more repellent to me than Corbyn. The you will get what you deserve! That's not helping.
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BMG
Nov 30, 2019 19:59:48 GMT
Post by Merseymike on Nov 30, 2019 19:59:48 GMT
Clearly a Labour minority. Whatever happens I doubt the DUP will get 10 seats. Getting a minority Labour government on those numbers would mean Corbyn having to get a Supply and Confidence with both the SNP and the Lib Dems. At the same time. Don't see that happening. Those numbers would mean a Tory Minority limping on until they lose a VONC and another election is called. Depends how much the LibDems want a second referendum
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,371
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BMG
Nov 30, 2019 20:11:16 GMT
Post by Tony Otim on Nov 30, 2019 20:11:16 GMT
The Green vote may be inflated because of a number of free runs given by LD/Plaid Cymru (in which case you're dealing more with a need to squeeze extra LD/Plaid voters). I'm sceptical, the Greens are only getting free runs as part of he Remain Alliance in (to my knowledge) a small handful of seats which obviously includes Brighton Pavilion where there was no Lib Dem candidate last time and the Isle of Wight where the Lb Dem vote was meagre. In Wales they are only getting a free run in (randomly) the Vale of Glamorgan which is rubbish for the Libs and Plaid anyway. This wont amount to much of anything in national polls, honestly I imagine all this equals at best an extra 10,000 votes that the Greens didn't get in 2017.
Indeed this is easily outweighed by the Greens overall tally of contested seats which has increased by 40 from 2017 up to 497 but this is 50% down to Scotland where the Greens only contested two seats in 2017 but are now contesting 22. Even if they only manage 1-2% in all these Scottish seats that's and extra 20 odd thousand votes and easily outweighs the extra support they'd get from Plaid and the Lib Dems standing aside in a couple of seats.
So yeah I don't buy the argument that the Green vote is inflated by several points cos of some mythical hundreds of thousands of additional votes from Plaid and Lib Dem supporters who will stubbornly back the Greens come what may. Makes no sense at all.
It was three, actually, not that that changes the point you're making...
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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BMG
Nov 30, 2019 20:15:28 GMT
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Post by cogload on Nov 30, 2019 20:15:28 GMT
There are a couple of additional polls due this evening (Deltapoll? Yougov?) - the Deltapoll has been tweeted as "interesting".
Who the hell knows.
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BMG
Nov 30, 2019 20:19:19 GMT
Post by andrewp on Nov 30, 2019 20:19:19 GMT
There are a couple of additional polls due this evening (Deltapoll? Yougov?) - the Deltapoll has been tweeted as "interesting". Who the hell knows. Conservative leads of 6,10 and 15 so far!
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jamie
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Nov 30, 2019 20:21:29 GMT
Post by jamie on Nov 30, 2019 20:21:29 GMT
The Green number has long been higher with BMG so just put it down to house effect. Similarly, another pollster (Deltapoll I think) randomly had ChangeUK on 2% long after they were stuck at 0% with everyone else.
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Tony Otim
Green
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Dec 1, 2019 12:44:10 GMT
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 1, 2019 12:44:10 GMT
Probably higher than that given that the seats they've stood down in are somewhat more likely than the ones they're standing in to have voted Leave. I've just calculated that in the seats the Brexit party is standing in in this election UKIP got 262,809 votes in 2017, 44.2% of their total in that election and 0.8% of the overall national vote But how many seats are Brexit standing in this time that didn't have a UKIP candidate last time?
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BMG
Dec 8, 2019 19:09:52 GMT
Post by Andrew_S on Dec 8, 2019 19:09:52 GMT
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BMG
Dec 8, 2019 19:28:41 GMT
Post by andrewp on Dec 8, 2019 19:28:41 GMT
That brings them back into the cluster.
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Post by tonygreaves on Dec 8, 2019 19:47:14 GMT
It is beginning to be quite clear. The Labour Party has had it. Their stupidity over the last year means we are going to leave the EU. Politics in the spring will be dominated by the internal Labour trench warfare.
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