cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Nov 30, 2019 17:25:17 GMT
Huge surge for Labour. Lib Dems fall again. 2017 repeat gets ever more likely. BMG had us on 18% last time. The pollsters are herding with a Tory lead in the 6% plus range. If they hold onto that by next weekend they are home and hosed.
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wallington
Green
The Pride of Croydon 2022 award winner
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BMG
Nov 30, 2019 17:28:03 GMT
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Post by wallington on Nov 30, 2019 17:28:03 GMT
Cons 39 (-2) Lab 33 (+5) LD 13 (-5) Green 5 BXP 4 BMG fall into line. There hasnt been many, if any, polls with the Conservatives under 40%.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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BMG
Nov 30, 2019 17:32:33 GMT
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Post by cogload on Nov 30, 2019 17:32:33 GMT
Cons 39 (-2) Lab 33 (+5) LD 13 (-5) Green 5 BXP 4 BMG fall into line. There hasnt been many, if any, polls with the Conservatives under 40%. Yeah but there will be by next week the best part of 2 weeks of postal voting occurring (say 15% of the overall vote) with the Conservatives baking in a 6pt lead.
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BMG
Nov 30, 2019 17:35:14 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 30, 2019 17:35:14 GMT
There hasnt been many, if any, polls with the Conservatives under 40%. Yeah but there will be by next week the best part of 2 weeks of postal voting occurring (say 15% of the overall vote) with the Conservatives baking in a 6pt lead. Depends who votes, and who chooses to vote on the day. I think that those in doubt are likely not to complete their postal vote swiftly. Those not in doubt won't change their minds anyway
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BMG
Nov 30, 2019 17:39:20 GMT
Post by lancastrian on Nov 30, 2019 17:39:20 GMT
Huge surge for Labour. Lib Dems fall again. 2017 repeat gets ever more likely. BMG had us on 18% last time. The pollsters are herding with a Tory lead in the 6% plus range. If they hold onto that by next weekend they are home and hoses. I don't think they'd win a majority with a 6% poll lead. Anyway, the momentum is with Labour so I expect a further swing in the next two weeks.
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andrewp
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BMG
Nov 30, 2019 17:41:05 GMT
Post by andrewp on Nov 30, 2019 17:41:05 GMT
If the election produced this, what would the likely outcome be?
Con 311 Lab 250 SNP 45 LD 20 DUP 10 SF 8 PC 4 Speaker 1 Green 1
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BMG
Nov 30, 2019 17:41:10 GMT
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Post by ccoleman on Nov 30, 2019 17:41:10 GMT
BMG had us on 18% last time. The pollsters are herding with a Tory lead in the 6% plus range. If they hold onto that by next weekend they are home and hoses. I don't think they'd win a majority with a 6% poll lead. Anyway, the momentum is with Labour so I expect a further swing in the next two weeks. The 5% drop in the Lib Dem vote is very telling too. I voted Lib Dem back in May but I’ll probably end up voting Labour because Boris is far more repellent to me than Corbyn.
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Jack
Reform Party
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Post by Jack on Nov 30, 2019 17:43:29 GMT
If the election produced this, what would the likely outcome be? Con 311 Lab 250 SNP 45 LD 20 DUP 10 SF 8 PC 4 Speaker 1 Green 1 A continuation of the world of shit we're already in.
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Post by edgbaston on Nov 30, 2019 17:43:57 GMT
Huge surge for Labour. Lib Dems fall again. 2017 repeat gets ever more likely. BMG had us on 18% last time. The pollsters are herding with a Tory lead in the 6% plus range. If they hold onto that by next weekend they are home and hosed. Though I think the Tory lead will be less effective this time - a hung parliament is possible with a 3 or 4 % national lead if their vote is slightly more concentrated in seats they already hold (due to BXP standing down there) and hyper local lib dem surges making their vote more effective at the same time. Unlikely but wouldn't say completely home and hosed
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andrewp
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BMG
Nov 30, 2019 17:45:25 GMT
Post by andrewp on Nov 30, 2019 17:45:25 GMT
BMG had us on 18% last time. The pollsters are herding with a Tory lead in the 6% plus range. If they hold onto that by next weekend they are home and hoses. I don't think they'd win a majority with a 6% poll lead. Anyway, the momentum is with Labour so I expect a further swing in the next two weeks. They probably would. On a uniform swing, 6% would gain them 28 seats and give them a majority of 40. There will have to be some big tactical voting to avoid that. i think there is a no big majority momentum rather than any Labour momentum.
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BMG
Nov 30, 2019 17:45:35 GMT
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Nov 30, 2019 17:45:35 GMT
Huge surge for Labour. Lib Dems fall again. 2017 repeat gets ever more likely. BMG had us on 18% last time. The pollsters are herding with a Tory lead in the 6% plus range. If they hold onto that by next weekend they are home and hosed. They are 'home and hosed' if and when they hit a majority of seats on the 12th/13th of December (which I think will happen, incidentally). There are various examples of elections in which they polls have been six points or more out.
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BMG
Nov 30, 2019 17:47:59 GMT
Post by curiousliberal on Nov 30, 2019 17:47:59 GMT
BMG had us on 18% last time. The pollsters are herding with a Tory lead in the 6% plus range. If they hold onto that by next weekend they are home and hosed. Though I think the Tory lead will be less effective this time - a hung parliament is possible with a 3 or 4 % national lead if their vote is slightly more concentrated in seats they already hold (due to BXP standing down there) and hyper local lib dem surges making their vote more effective at the same time. Unlikely but wouldn't say completely home and hosed Considering the probability of increased tactical voting on top of all this, I'd agree. Curtice has recently argued they'd probably reach an outright majority only if they had a national lead of 6%+. I think they're more likely to achieve it at ~5.5%, but that is splitting hairs.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Nov 30, 2019 17:52:52 GMT
Huge surge for Labour. Lib Dems fall again. 2017 repeat gets ever more likely. It's strange. The Tories keep trying to squeeze the LDs by saying how bad Corbyn would be, but the squeeze seems to be working in Labour's favour.
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
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Nov 30, 2019 18:04:34 GMT
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Post by Rural Radical on Nov 30, 2019 18:04:34 GMT
If the election produced this, what would the likely outcome be? Con 311 Lab 250 SNP 45 LD 20 DUP 10 SF 8 PC 4 Speaker 1 Green 1 A continuation of the world of shit we're already in. Clearly a Labour minority. Whatever happens I doubt the DUP will get 10 seats.
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BMG
Nov 30, 2019 18:12:09 GMT
Post by rivers10 on Nov 30, 2019 18:12:09 GMT
One thing I'd point out is the substantial Green Vote in that poll, bearing in mind the Greens only got 4% in their high water mark of 2015 (and I don't see them replicating that again if I'm honest) this thus leaves a further 1-3 points for Labour to squeeze from the Greens which I'm personally confident we can manage.
If that's born out then the Tory lead falls to between 5 and 3 points and we're really in squeaky bum time.
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BMG
Nov 30, 2019 18:17:10 GMT
Post by edgbaston on Nov 30, 2019 18:17:10 GMT
A continuation of the world of shit we're already in. Clearly a Labour minority. Whatever happens I doubt the DUP won’t get 10 seats. Forgive my maths but 650 - 8 SF - 1 speaker = 641 641/ 2 = 320.5, therefore 321 for a majority 10 DUP + 311 Tory = 321 Therefore Tory minority on c&s. Unlikely but perfectly plausible for the DUP to lose Belfast North, hold south on a perfect SDLP-ALL vote split and gain North Down. Resulting in this 10 DUP-8SF split
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BMG
Nov 30, 2019 18:18:53 GMT
Post by curiousliberal on Nov 30, 2019 18:18:53 GMT
One thing I'd point out is the substantial Green Vote in that poll, bearing in mind the Greens only got 4% in their high water mark of 2015 (and I don't see them replicating that again if I'm honest) this thus leaves a further 1-3 points for Labour to squeeze from the Greens which I'm personally confident we can manage.
If that's born out then the Tory lead falls to between 5 and 3 points and we're really in squeaky bum time.
The Green vote may be inflated because of a number of free runs given by LD/Plaid Cymru (in which case you're dealing more with a need to squeeze extra LD/Plaid voters).
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BMG
Nov 30, 2019 18:21:41 GMT
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Post by ccoleman on Nov 30, 2019 18:21:41 GMT
Huge surge for Labour. Lib Dems fall again. 2017 repeat gets ever more likely. It's strange. The Tories keep trying to squeeze the LDs by saying how bad Corbyn would be, but the squeeze seems to be working in Labour's favour. Probably because there are more Labour 2017 voters voting Lib Dem than Tory 2017 voters.
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BMG
Nov 30, 2019 18:21:50 GMT
Post by curiousliberal on Nov 30, 2019 18:21:50 GMT
If the election produced this, what would the likely outcome be? Con 311 Lab 250 SNP 45 LD 20 DUP 10 SF 8 PC 4 Speaker 1 Green 1 A continuation of the world of shit we're already in. There'll be a new class of MPs. Another hung parliament might also finally galvanise the old guard into moving towards compromise as opposed to unproductive polarisation.
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BMG
Nov 30, 2019 18:24:29 GMT
Post by matureleft on Nov 30, 2019 18:24:29 GMT
Clearly a Labour minority. Whatever happens I doubt the DUP won’t get 10 seats. Forgive my maths but 650 - 8 SF - 1 speaker = 641 641/ 2 = 320.5, therefore 321 for a majority 10 DUP + 311 Tory = 321 Therefore Tory minority on c&s. Unlikely but perfectly plausible for the DUP to lose Belfast North, hold south on a perfect SDLP-ALL vote split and gain North Down. Resulting in this 10 DUP-8SF split a. The DUP won't support Johnson's deal, even with bribes. b. While Tory candidates have pledged support for Johnson's deal some may feel that their obligation is lifted if adjustments are required to suit the DUP.
c. While Labour would produce a deal that better suited the DUP I can't see a circumstance in which they would give any support to a Labour minority government (or be asked for that support).
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