nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 573
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Post by nyx on Nov 15, 2023 19:42:31 GMT
I am less sure about the SDLP holding Foyle than South Belfast, and I am sure that Colum Eastwood will, with a much reduced majority, hold that seat. Claire Hanna is a perfect fit for the constituency, has cross-party support and, if it seemed likely SF would gain the seat, the moderate unionists will vote for her. She is a good fit for the constituency but has the problem that the SDLP is very weak in Belfast South (probably the weakest party of the four main contenders) and that there are plenty of people who would compete with her voters. Green and Alliance of course, and if Deirdre Hargey is selected for Sinn Fein, she's a former Lord Mayor of Belfast who doesn't exactly have radical vibes. Being a good politician doesn't guarantee you keeping your seat (look at Nichola Mallon).
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Post by boondock on Jan 27, 2024 11:04:04 GMT
Peter Shirlow of the IIS was pushing the line a few months back that the large number of undecided voters in his polls at the time were predominantly stay-at-home unionists (this has been a consistent and ideologically-convenient theme of his over a long period) and that as the number of undecided declined closer to the election, then unionist parties would stage a recovery.
This has not really been borne out by events. It's much more likely that unenthusiastic voters are those disproportionally ideologically uncommitted to either nationalism or unionism. Only just found this thread. This above post is so true. I find it so frustrating when Shirlow constantly spouts this on TV and no-one ever challenges him. He always says Alliance voters are pro-union and no polls have ever shown otherwise .... Except for plenty of er actual polls and any election result transfers but let's just ignore them. I find it baffling that the Irish news, one of the leaders of civic nationalism keeps using his awful polls. I mean why in this day and age do they still use face to face polling FFS. Is it right for someone with such a clear bias to be so heavily involved with polling, polling that seems to carry more weight than actual election results on influencing whether any future referendum is held or not. At least Bill White at Lucid keeps his personal views more discreetly
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,567
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 27, 2024 12:37:28 GMT
I mean why in this day and age do they still use face to face polling FFS Easy to forget now that this was the main method of polling well within living memory - I took part in some face to face surveys for Gallup back in 1990 (my stint just happened to cover Thatcher's fall and Major's rise, and the change in public sentiment in that period was indeed quite real)
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obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 840
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Post by obsie on Jan 27, 2024 14:45:31 GMT
I find it baffling that the Irish news, one of the leaders of civic nationalism keeps using his awful polls. I mean why in this day and age do they still use face to face polling FFS. Is it right for someone with such a clear bias to be so heavily involved with polling, polling that seems to carry more weight than actual election results on influencing whether any future referendum is held or not. At least Bill White at Lucid keeps his personal views more discreetly It's not, to be fair, that the two sets of polls are producing drastically different results (as opposed to the NILTS surveys, which might be useful looking at trends over time but are garbage when it comes to voting intentions). The issue is Shirlow spinning the results in the cause of his preferred political position. It's not on the scale of Goodwin but it's not especially helpful in actually understanding what might be happening. Face-to-face can be problematic in a society like Northern Ireland where people have incentives not to reveal their true opinions to strangers - although less so than in the past - but looking at the Republic, the panel pollsters have a long-running habit of overstating the most Online parties (currently the Social Democrats) and understating the most "normie" parties, so the two things can balance out.
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Post by timmullen on Mar 13, 2024 12:55:28 GMT
Wesminster Voting Intention (Northern Ireland):
SF: 31.1% (+0.1) DUP: 23.5% (-1.5) ALL: 15.2% (+0.2) UUP: 11.1% (+0.1) SDLP: 8.1% (-0.9) TUV: 4.8% (-0.2)
Via @socialmarketres, 11-28 Feb. Changes w/ 26 Oct - 3 Nov.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,176
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Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 13, 2024 14:08:12 GMT
Wesminster Voting Intention (Northern Ireland): SF: 31.1% (+0.1) DUP: 23.5% (-1.5) ALL: 15.2% (+0.2) UUP: 11.1% (+0.1) SDLP: 8.1% (-0.9) TUV: 4.8% (-0.2) Via @socialmarketres, 11-28 Feb. Changes w/ 26 Oct - 3 Nov. Adds up to 93.8%. Where's the other 6.2% gone?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,567
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 13, 2024 14:09:22 GMT
Presumably minor parties like Aontu, PBP, Greens et al?
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Post by timmullen on Mar 13, 2024 14:29:06 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Mar 13, 2024 15:24:46 GMT
Wesminster Voting Intention (Northern Ireland): SF: 31.1% (+0.1) DUP: 23.5% (-1.5) ALL: 15.2% (+0.2) UUP: 11.1% (+0.1) SDLP: 8.1% (-0.9) TUV: 4.8% (-0.2) Via @socialmarketres, 11-28 Feb. Changes w/ 26 Oct - 3 Nov. FWIW, that adds up to 39.4% for U and 39.2% for Nat/Rep
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obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 840
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Post by obsie on Mar 13, 2024 17:05:35 GMT
It's by the Institute of Irish Studies at Liverpool University.
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Post by timmullen on Mar 13, 2024 17:07:47 GMT
It's by the Institute of Irish Studies at Liverpool University. The Wikipedia link says by Social Market Research for IIS Liverpool.
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