Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,734
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jun 7, 2014 19:28:49 GMT
In recent weeks I have become convinced that the results from Northern Ireland at the next election will be crucial to the formation of a government and yet I have not been able to find any polls asking voiting intentions at the next general election. If polls have been published then could they be summarised here (UUP, DUP, All, SDLP, SF, Others) and any new polls added here as well?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2014 21:15:24 GMT
Okay - If Labour is close to a majority, the SDLP are likely to still have three seats, as will Sylvia Herman in North Down, which will be 4 MPs whipping with Labour on most issues. The 5 Sinn Fein won't take their seats. The DUP have a mix of people, some of whom would possibly lean towards Labour economicallly but not trust them in terms of Irish politics. If Naomi Long holds Belfast East (by no means certain) for the APNI, she might lean towards Labour but she whips with the Liberal Democrats. I can't really see the UUP gaining any seats. Opinion Polls in Northern Irleand are few and far between, and with good reason.
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 7, 2014 22:23:43 GMT
It would probably the worst nightmare of a Prime Minister, having to rely on votes from Northern Ireland for your majority.
In the past it wouldn't have been too bad for a Tory PM with the UUP as partners but with DUP it would be much less appealing.
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Post by Devonian on Jun 8, 2014 6:37:59 GMT
In recent weeks I have become convinced that the results from Northern Ireland at the next election will be crucial to the formation of a government and yet I have not been able to find any polls asking voiting intentions at the next general election. If polls have been published then could they be summarised here (UUP, DUP, All, SDLP, SF, Others) and any new polls added here as well? The only company the I'm aware of doing NI polls is Lucidtalk which very occasionally does polls or the Belfast Telegraph, I've just bumped to thread that mentions their polls.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,233
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 9, 2014 14:56:17 GMT
The DUP is in any case more or less openly corrupt and will quite happily work with any major party in exchange for ££££££ for its pet projects. Democracy, fuck yeah!
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 10, 2014 11:24:35 GMT
The DUP is in any case more or less openly corrupt and will quite happily work with any major party in exchange for ££££££ for its pet projects. Democracy, fuck yeah! Well yes, the DUP will work with anyone for the right price but you would constantly have to be buying them off. Every time you give in to one of their demands it would only encourage them to ask for more the next time there is a contentious vote.
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Post by Devonian on Oct 2, 2014 16:49:33 GMT
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Post by fulgentius1 on Oct 5, 2014 20:21:02 GMT
These polls are totally useless in Northern Ireland, as the reporter clearly shows. In many ways, Northern Ireland will be the most interesting of elections to watch next May.
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Post by Devonian on Oct 5, 2014 21:00:05 GMT
These polls are totally useless in Northern Ireland, as the reporter clearly shows. In many ways, Northern Ireland will be the most interesting of elections to watch next May. Any thoughts on any possible change of seats?
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Post by thirdchill on Oct 6, 2014 16:41:23 GMT
Probably very few changes, there's only a couple of marginal seats at the moment.
Belfast East and Belfast North will probably be the ones to watch. Belfast South used to be but I can't see it going anything other than SDLP at the moment, particularly if Sinn Fein stand aside again.
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Post by Devonian on Oct 22, 2014 23:01:14 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2019 20:43:55 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2019 12:40:31 GMT
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,531
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Post by iain on Sept 2, 2019 12:49:18 GMT
That is astonishing
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Sept 2, 2019 13:11:06 GMT
But not before bloody time. Game on.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,106
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Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 2, 2019 13:36:12 GMT
Can anyone translate that into Westminster seats? Where, if anywhere, are Alliance going to break through? East Belfast again, at a guess, but I don't know the lie of the land well enough.
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Sept 2, 2019 13:37:15 GMT
I think we'll need a few more polls before we know whether that one was an outlier. It certainly looks suspect to say the least.
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Post by carolus on Sept 2, 2019 13:43:28 GMT
I think we'll need a few more polls before we know whether that one was an outlier. It certainly looks suspect to say the least. It doesn't look absurdly out of line with the European election results, at least.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,488
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Post by Khunanup on Sept 2, 2019 17:09:10 GMT
Can anyone translate that into Westminster seats? Where, if anywhere, are Alliance going to break through? East Belfast again, at a guess, but I don't know the lie of the land well enough. It's likely to be very heavily skewed towards the greater Belfast area which would mean they're polling silly figures there. If that is so, North & South would probably go as well as East and seats like South Antrim could be very interesting too (North Down would be a dead cert in that scenario other than Hermon being an Indy).
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,531
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Post by iain on Sept 2, 2019 17:14:05 GMT
Can anyone translate that into Westminster seats? Where, if anywhere, are Alliance going to break through? East Belfast again, at a guess, but I don't know the lie of the land well enough. It's likely to be very heavily skewed towards the greater Belfast area which would mean they're polling silly figures there. If that is so, North & South would probably go as well as East and seats like South Antrim could be very interesting too (North Down would be a dead cert in that scenario other than Hermon being an Indy). Lol they are not going to win North Belfast. The MRP with this said that Alliance would gain South Belfast and be narrowly behind in East Belfast and South Antrim.
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