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Post by BossMan on Feb 13, 2014 14:35:32 GMT
Maybe I'm underestimating the Sale factor, I've never been to Trafford at all, but I can imagine that certainly within the Wythenshawe part of the constituency that their vote will be that low.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2014 15:01:17 GMT
We will save our deposit
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2014 15:24:27 GMT
Lab 59% UKIP 18% Con 15.5% Grn 2% BNP 1% LD 4% Loony 0.5%
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2014 15:25:05 GMT
Mark refused my bet to Charity of £25 on evens that you will not, willing to take it ?
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 13, 2014 15:40:12 GMT
Prediction: Lab: 11,923 (54.1%) UKIP: 4,572 (20.7%) Con: 3,630 (16.5%) LD: 1,084 (4.9%) BNP: 489 (2.2%) Green: 244 (1.1%) Loony: 115 (0.5%) Lab, maj: 7,351 (33.3%) Changes: Lab: +10.0% UKIP: +17.3% Con: -9.1% LD: -17.4% BNP: -1.7% Total votes = 22,057 Anyone know what the electorate is? I'm assuming about 76,000 which would give a turnout of 29.02% with my prediction.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 13, 2014 15:41:52 GMT
None of the drops in the Lib Dem vote in terms of share of the vote would be big enough for them to lose their deposit if repeated tonight, though a repeat of the Manchester Central performance would see them teetering on the edge with 5.1%.
The Lib Dems would have to retain 22.4% of their 2010 support to hold their deposit here (assuming equivalent turnout, which obviously won't happen.) They've accomplished that in every by-election bar Inverclyde, Rotheram and South Shields.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2014 15:50:07 GMT
Mark refused my bet to Charity of £25 on evens that you will not, willing to take it ? No.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 13, 2014 15:58:49 GMT
I'll take that bet but like Mark my charity begins at home
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2014 16:08:17 GMT
no bet then, I only bet for charity now
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2014 16:08:41 GMT
In Sale you would think they should be on around 5-10
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 13, 2014 16:11:46 GMT
In the Wythenshawe section the LDs will probably be on about 3%.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 13, 2014 16:14:09 GMT
Maybe I'm underestimating the Sale factor, I've never been to Trafford at all, but I can imagine that certainly within the Wythenshawe part of the constituency that their vote will be that low. Not sure on turnout in the whole constituency, but I'd imagine that Sale is being worked extensively by the Tories- there are some extremely keen (and very good) local activists in A&SW in particular who know the turf well and who should be out in force. If they have indeed been heavily working the area, then the Tory vote might be higher than some think- nowhere near winning, but closer to UKIP's projected tally than many would think. On the downside, W&SE Tories used to be a bit of a gerontocracy more interested in moaning about A&SW and S&U Tories than campaigning, and may well be still.
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Post by marksenior on Feb 13, 2014 16:37:27 GMT
In the Wythenshawe section the LDs will probably be on about 3%. It will be higher in Northenden where the LD candidate is a councillor .
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 13, 2014 16:44:31 GMT
Yes, it might hit heights of as much as 10% there.
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Post by marksenior on Feb 13, 2014 16:47:35 GMT
Yes, it might hit heights of as much as 10% there. My estimate is 14-16%
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 13, 2014 17:08:29 GMT
In the Wythenshawe section the LDs will probably be on about 3%. It will be higher in Northenden where the LD candidate is a councillor . The last remaining LD councillor in the ward awaiting defeat in May
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 13, 2014 17:12:02 GMT
Maybe I'm underestimating the Sale factor, I've never been to Trafford at all, but I can imagine that certainly within the Wythenshawe part of the constituency that their vote will be that low. They (LibDems) have a councillor in the Manchester part, and at least one of the Trafford wards (I think) had a Liberal councillor within living memory. There will - I would agree - be parts of Wythenshawe where the LibDem vote will be awful.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 13, 2014 17:14:29 GMT
It will be higher in Northenden where the LD candidate is a councillor . The last remaining LD councillor in the ward awaiting defeat in May sigh,probably so, but it doesn't alter the likelihood of her polling better there than elsewhere ......
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Post by marksenior on Feb 13, 2014 17:34:46 GMT
sigh,probably so, but it doesn't alter the likelihood of her polling better there than elsewhere ...... Even in Northenden - where LibDem candidate Mary DiMauro is a councillor - the LibDem vote was only 13% in the last local elections, if memory serves. True but it was not a sitting Lib Dem councillor standing for re election .
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2014 18:30:43 GMT
Very worrying if Labour supporters welcome a single party state being a good thing. Particularly in Manchester, creative and non conformist heart of the country
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