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Post by hullenedge on Sept 21, 2019 8:38:00 GMT
The English Brexit swings 1975-2016 (Remain to Leave) on a county basis:- The Tories split roughly 80/20 Remain in '75, Libs 70/30 and Labour were about 50/50. Of course it's pretty meaningless - different electorates, different campaigns, EEC v EU etc.
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 22, 2019 12:14:10 GMT
Good site by a former Lib Dem Spad about tactical voting and the % required before the LDs 'breakthrough' (at least 31% if not 36/37%):- freethinkecon.wordpress.com/author/freethinkingeconomist/Compared to previous elections when there's been a spike in Lib support, Feb 1974 (298 comparable English seats) & 1983 (515 English seats):- The spike has turned a poor constituency result into a decent (but still losing) performance. Same pattern with this year's Euros (England & Wales):- As opposed to the UKIP15/Brexit Party19 matrix:-
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Sept 22, 2019 12:26:56 GMT
Good site by a former Lib Dem Spad about tactical voting and the % required before the LDs 'breakthrough' (at least 31% if not 36/37%):- freethinkecon.wordpress.com/author/freethinkingeconomist/Compared to previous elections when there's been a spike in Lib support, Feb 1974 (298 comparable English seats) & 1983 (515 English seats):- The spike has turned a poor constituency result into a decent (but still losing) performance. Same pattern with this year's Euros (England & Wales):- As opposed to the UKIP15/Brexit Party19 matrix:- That site looks really interesting and I now have my weekend homework set for me. But I can't see which of the articles/posts refers to the tables you've posted, and as a statistical ignoramus I don't understand the tables.
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 22, 2019 16:37:15 GMT
Good site by a former Lib Dem Spad about tactical voting and the % required before the LDs 'breakthrough' (at least 31% if not 36/37%):- freethinkecon.wordpress.com/author/freethinkingeconomist/Compared to previous elections when there's been a spike in Lib support, Feb 1974 (298 comparable English seats) & 1983 (515 English seats):- The spike has turned a poor constituency result into a decent (but still losing) performance. Same pattern with this year's Euros (England & Wales):- As opposed to the UKIP15/Brexit Party19 matrix:- That site looks really interesting and I now have my weekend homework set for me. But I can't see which of the articles/posts refers to the tables you've posted, and as a statistical ignoramus I don't understand the tables. Apologies because it could be clearer. I put the tables together after reading the site. (Tried to construct a calculator like him but failed). Hope this helps...in the top table there 95 seats where the Libs polled 10-15% in 1970 and then 20-30% in Feb' 1974. I coloured the cells gold where there was an improvement in Lib vote share. (Teal for Brexit Party).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2019 10:32:23 GMT
Peter was the first name of the last Republican Congressmen elected in Vermont (1 in 1988) and Massachusetts (2 in 1994).
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Post by greenhert on Sept 25, 2019 22:39:43 GMT
The now abolished council of North Dorset once had as many as three councillors with the surname Tory, none of whom sat as Conservatives (they were all Independent). One of these Torys sat on the council until 2007.
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Post by froome on Sept 26, 2019 7:35:13 GMT
The now abolished council of North Dorset once had as many as three councillors with the surname Tory, none of whom sat as Conservatives (they were all Independent). One of these Torys sat on the council until 2007. One of the oldest residential streets in Bradford on Avon in Wiltshire is just called Tory. It sits high up on the hillside overlooking the centre of the town and takes its name from the 'tor', a high point where a small chapel was built.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 26, 2019 8:06:11 GMT
The now abolished council of North Dorset once had as many as three councillors with the surname Tory, none of whom sat as Conservatives (they were all Independent). One of these Torys sat on the council until 2007. One of the oldest residential streets in Bradford on Avon in Wiltshire is just called Tory. It sits high up on the hillside overlooking the centre of the town and takes its name from the 'tor', a high point where a small chapel was built. Alec Clifton-Taylor drew attention to this in one of his "Six English Towns" programmes, which I still remember fondly. Top Rank Tory and Middle Rank Tory are terraces of houses on the hillside above Newtown.
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 26, 2019 19:06:21 GMT
From today's Indices of Deprivation release - the correlations between the Euro election vote shares and education/wealth:- Wealthier areas better for Con & LD; less affluent for Lab. LDs do best in areas with high qualifications. Nothing unusual.
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 27, 2019 13:46:47 GMT
Possible permutations for GE19 (England & Wales)? Already reached 62 permutations for 2005-17 if sub-dividing for Referendum categories:-
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Post by bjornhattan on Sept 27, 2019 14:17:49 GMT
Possible permutations for GE19 (England & Wales)? Already reached 62 permutations for 2005-17 if sub-dividing for Referendum categories:- I feel like a fun quiz question would be identifying a (potential) example of each, some are quite hard (such as 33).
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Post by greenhert on Sept 27, 2019 14:18:33 GMT
Many of these types of seat history only have one or two examples, so in reality there are not as many as 40 types of constituency. Personal votes and local circumstances have also distorted the "history" of some seats.
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 2, 2019 21:33:03 GMT
Comparing the vote share (average & median) from the 1992 notionals to 2017 in English & Welsh constituencies depending upon 2016 Referendum winner. Not 100% accurate because best guess for 1992-2005.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Oct 18, 2019 9:04:11 GMT
May well have been noted before, but Bristol South in 1979 was between Cocks and Dicks.
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 18, 2019 9:05:05 GMT
May well have been noted before, but Bristol South in 1979 was between Cocks and Dicks. Honourable members have already pointed this out....
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 18, 2019 9:18:35 GMT
And in 1992 the Conservative candidate was a prick
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Post by lbarnes on Oct 18, 2019 10:04:43 GMT
And in 1992 the Conservative candidate was a prick Not happy with your usual abuse, but the 1992 candidate was probably better than those in 2001, 2010 and, definitely, 2015.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 18, 2019 10:08:38 GMT
And in 1992 the Conservative candidate was a prick Not happy with your usual abuse, but the 1992 candidate was probably better than those in 2001, 2010 and, definitely, 2015. What was so bad about the last one in particular?
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Post by lbarnes on Oct 18, 2019 10:16:43 GMT
Not happy with your usual abuse, but the 1992 candidate was probably better than those in 2001, 2010 and, definitely, 2015. What was so bad about the last one in particular? Ask people in Ealing or Twickenham.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2019 7:52:46 GMT
One party has won all of Liverpool's constituencies since 1992, but there is likely to be a turnover of MPs in 3/5 them because:
- Louise Ellman in Liverpool, Riverside has quit the Labour Party and sits as an independent MP
- Luciana Berger in Liverpool, Wavertree defected to the Lib Dems and is standing in Finchley
- Stephen Twigg in Liverpool, West Derby is standing down after 9 years as MP for the seat
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