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Post by swingometer on Apr 11, 2024 7:06:16 GMT
Which of these seats is consistent right the way through could someone please check some of these seats as the boundaries have been changed, if the majority of the seat it replaced voted for the governing party it should count.
Since February 1974
Brighouse and Spenborough
Northampton, North
Portsmouth, North
Since 1979 to be generous
Basildon
Brighouse and Spenborough
Belper
Hertford and Stevenage
Dartford
Loughborough
Brigg and Scunthorpe
Northampton, North
Portsmouth, North
Rossendale
Staffordshire, Lichfield and Tamworth
Watford
Yorkshire (West Riding), Sowerby
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Post by batman on Apr 11, 2024 9:40:51 GMT
Brighouse & Spenborough has IMHO not had a linear equivalent since it was abolished in 1983. I would contend that this is also the case for Preston North. In any case Labour has not lost the present-day Preston since it was formed in 1983, it has never even been close.
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Post by batman on Apr 11, 2024 9:41:42 GMT
Rugby & Kenilworth voted Conservative in 2005.
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Post by batman on Apr 11, 2024 9:45:53 GMT
If we accept (Hertford and) Stevenage as a bellwether it would go back to February 1974.
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Post by batman on Apr 11, 2024 9:47:28 GMT
Brigg & Scunthorpe is also not a bellwether. As Glanford & Scunthorpe it voted Labour in 1987 & 1992, and as Scunthorpe did so in 2010, 2015 & 2017
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Post by batman on Apr 11, 2024 9:48:20 GMT
Nelson & Colne as Pendle voted Labour in 1992 as did Rossendale as Rossendale & Darwen.
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Post by batman on Apr 11, 2024 9:50:04 GMT
Tamworth of course lost any claim to be a bellwether when Labour recently gained it in a by-election
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 11, 2024 9:50:19 GMT
Not Nelson & Colne as Pendle went Labour in 1992
Watford goes back to 74
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 11, 2024 9:52:11 GMT
Why is Dartford listed as only being since 1979. It has voted for the party which formed the government in every election since 1964 inclusive
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Post by swingometer on Apr 11, 2024 10:01:12 GMT
Brigg & Scunthorpe is also not a bellwether. As Glanford & Scunthorpe it voted Labour in 1987 & 1992, and as Scunthorpe did so in 2010, 2015 & 2017 Part of Brigg and Scunthorpe was replaced by Brigg and Cleethorpes and part of that was replaced in 1997 by Cleethorpes so part of that constituency has voted for the winning part the whole way through, I’m open to corrections though |
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Post by swingometer on Apr 11, 2024 10:01:54 GMT
Not Nelson & Colne as Pendle went Labour in 1992 Watford goes back to 74 I’m going off the figures as from the notionals just to clear that up. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 11, 2024 10:22:12 GMT
Not Nelson & Colne as Pendle went Labour in 1992 Watford goes back to 74 I’m going off the figures as from the notionals just to clear that up. What notionals? |
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Post by swingometer on Apr 11, 2024 10:23:17 GMT
I’m going off the figures as from the notionals just to clear that up. What notionals? 1970 hence why I didn’t say Dartford or Hertford and Stevenage |
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Post by lackeroftalent on Apr 11, 2024 10:58:33 GMT
Belper as a seat was split three ways after the 1979 election. The largest proportion went into South Derbyshire. The town of Belper itself went into West Derbyshire. A smaller portion into Amber Valley.
The creation of Mid Derbyshire for the 2010 election saw the greater part of the old seat in West Derbyshire, Belper and Duffield, move to the new constituency but bundled with areas never part of the old Belper seat.
Simply put, there isn't a meaningful successor constituency.
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Post by swingometer on Apr 11, 2024 11:09:22 GMT
Belper as a seat was split three ways after the 1979 election. The largest proportion went into South Derbyshire. The town of Belper itself went into West Derbyshire. A smaller portion into Amber Valley. The creation of Mid Derbyshire for the 2010 election saw the greater part of the old seat in West Derbyshire, Belper and Duffield, move to the new constituency but bundled with areas never part of the old Belper seat. Simply put, there isn't a meaningful successor constituency. God give me strength I give up |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 582
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Post by nyx on Apr 11, 2024 13:02:00 GMT
Tamworth of course lost any claim to be a bellwether when Labour recently gained it in a by-election How? Had there been a general election held on the same day as the by-election it would certainly most likely have been a Labour victory. |
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Post by batman on Apr 11, 2024 13:14:31 GMT
Strictly speaking, a bellwether seat is always held by the largest party and a by-election gain is said to upset that, although you are surely right. It was said that before 1979 (when Labour held on despite losing nationally) that Bolton East was a true bellwether, as it not only voted for the nationally winning party 1950-74 inclusive, the Tories also held it in a 1961 by-election before losing it in the general 3 years later
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Post by aargauer on Apr 11, 2024 13:25:44 GMT
Strictly speaking, a bellwether seat is always held by the largest party and a by-election gain is said to upset that, although you are surely right. It was said that before 1979 (when Labour held on despite losing nationally) that Bolton East was a true bellwether, as it not only voted for the nationally winning party 1950-74 inclusive, the Tories also held it in a 1961 by-election before losing it in the general 3 years later I think that's overly restrictive. Morally, it is any seat that votes as the country does at a general election. I suspect that Tamworth will lose it at the general election and vote conservative as the country goes labour. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 14,586
Member is Online
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Post by john07 on Apr 16, 2024 22:51:48 GMT
Which of these seats is consistent right the way through could someone please check some of these seats as the boundaries have been changed, if the majority of the seat it replaced voted for the governing party it should count. Since February 1974 Brighouse and Spenborough Northampton, North Portsmouth, North Since 1979 to be generous Basildon Brighouse and Spenborough Belper Hertford and Stevenage Dartford Loughborough Brigg and Scunthorpe Northampton, North Portsmouth, North Rossendale Staffordshire, Lichfield and Tamworth Watford Yorkshire (West Riding), Sowerby Going back to February 1974 is a rather rubbish way of identifying key marginals now. Back then the likes of Manchester Withington, Moss Side, etc. were seen as key seats. Equally once safe Labour mining constituencies have shifted to the Conservatives. The next election will probably rip-up the map of safe seats and marginals. I suspect that Labour will make sweeping gains in the South but the Conservatives may prove more resilient in some seats in the North. Scotland is very unpredictable and the Conservatives could actually gain a few seats if the predicted SNP to Labour shift happens. It could be a very fascinating election? |
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Post by swingometer on Apr 28, 2024 18:01:02 GMT
What benefits are there of living in a bellwether seat?
Two I can think of, your MP would be more likely to get things done on your behalf by lobbying the government, and uniqueness in being part of a select few in the country to vote the right way.
Any others.
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