Post by European Lefty on Mar 14, 2024 23:53:46 GMT
Very much a rush job, may update it if I get time
Stroud
Stroud constituency has been heavily changed by the new boundaries, shedding wards to both the north and east whilst regaining Wotton-Under-Edge ward to the south. Thanks to the changes, Stroud is now the northern boundary, with the Cam and Dursley area now its geographic centre – though of course, it has always been the true centre of this seat (I was briefly tempted to suggest that the BCE rename it Severnside & West Costwolds because I got so fed up of everyone assuming that the constituency was a town of just under 15,000 people).
In this case the constituency’s history is not just a pet obsession of one of the forum’s resident archaeologists, but also of vital importance to understanding its modern politics. Although it is not the image most people generally have of the Cotswolds, this area was at one time driven by industry, and especially the textile industry. Old textile mills can be found all across the landscape of the Stroud Valleys, and in fact I can see a working textile mill from the window on my landing (at least in winter, when the trees have no leaves to block my view). Another key industry of recent years is manufacturing, with the constituency still being well above the national average for the percentage of the workforce employed in manufacturing. Dursley was the birthplace of the world-famous Lister’s Engines, with the factory only closing in 2003, and Renishaw still employ several people at their plant in Stonehouse. Religion is another factor that ought to get a mention here, with this area long having had large Methodist, Quaker and other nonconformist populations (sidenote: there appears to be a religious divide in voting habits to some extent, with a large overlap between Quakers and Green voters and Methodists and Labour voters, but this may just be my impression from the people I know).
Stroud has transitioned from a safe Tory seat to a bellwether in recent years, with David Drew taking the seat for Labour in 1997 and holding on until his defeat in 2010. In 2017 he unseated Tory MP Neil Carmichael, only to lose it back again in 2019. Drew and Carmichael faced each other in 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2017, which must com fairly close to a record of some description.
Stroud, with its high proportion of “religious others” (in this case, a symptom of the, uh, alternative culture (The Light gets handed out on the high street)), in one part of the town and its high proportion of social housing in the other half, is a Labour-Green battleground, with a phenomenal amount of split voting between local and general elections. Stonehouse, the former and current industrial town with a high share of social housing, and the similar village of Eastington nearby, also provide solid Labour votes, as does Cainscross sitting between here and Stroud. Cam and Dursley – respectively a mill town with its industry much cut back, and a factory town without a factory – provide a block of Labour vote although a certain commuter demographic exists here which provides a solid bedrock for the Tories – this alongside Nailsworth (quite socially divided) are the seat’s bellwethers, normally voting with the overall winner.
And what of the Tory support? The wealthier areas of the outskirts of Stroud, as well as the agricultural communities of the Severn Vale and the vale of Berkeley elect the Tory MPs here. Berkeley itself is still home to the very influential Berkeley family, and the Berkeley hunt is a genuine part of the local community to……mixed reactions. This helps explain why the town is slightly more Conservative than you feel it should be. Sharpness, on the other hand, is an old docking town, at one point one of the largest ports in the South West (no surprises for guessing its political allegiance!)
In the boundary changes, we gained the Wotton-Under-Edge ward, comprising the eponymous town and nearby North Nibley (the famous Tyndale Monument is also in this ward – that nonconformist history rearing its head again). This ward has had its politics affected by being in a safe Conservative seat for a long time, and the LibDems have successfully squeezed the Labour vote to almost nothing, at least at local level. In return, the constituency lost the Gloucester suburb of Hardwicke, and the Cotswolds villages of Painswick and Bisley. Thes changes will have shaved perhaps a couple of thousand votes from the Tory majority, although it will also have had a significant negative impact on the Greens, who have dramatically increased their vote share in the West Cotswolds region recently.
So, post-industrial, a little alternative, rural deprivation side-by-side with some of the country’s wealthiest villages. Truth be told there are many constituencies like this in the country (though nowhere really has an equivalent of Stroud, Hebden Bridge possibly excepted), though what sets this one apart is its marginal status. A very active and hard-working local Labour Party have kept Labour in contention in this seat, when they have fallen back sharply in many similar ones. With its weird and wonderful collection of communities, issues, and history, this is certainly one of the more fascinating constituencies in the country, and one that Labour will likely need to win to form a government for the foreseeable future.
Stroud
Stroud constituency has been heavily changed by the new boundaries, shedding wards to both the north and east whilst regaining Wotton-Under-Edge ward to the south. Thanks to the changes, Stroud is now the northern boundary, with the Cam and Dursley area now its geographic centre – though of course, it has always been the true centre of this seat (I was briefly tempted to suggest that the BCE rename it Severnside & West Costwolds because I got so fed up of everyone assuming that the constituency was a town of just under 15,000 people).
In this case the constituency’s history is not just a pet obsession of one of the forum’s resident archaeologists, but also of vital importance to understanding its modern politics. Although it is not the image most people generally have of the Cotswolds, this area was at one time driven by industry, and especially the textile industry. Old textile mills can be found all across the landscape of the Stroud Valleys, and in fact I can see a working textile mill from the window on my landing (at least in winter, when the trees have no leaves to block my view). Another key industry of recent years is manufacturing, with the constituency still being well above the national average for the percentage of the workforce employed in manufacturing. Dursley was the birthplace of the world-famous Lister’s Engines, with the factory only closing in 2003, and Renishaw still employ several people at their plant in Stonehouse. Religion is another factor that ought to get a mention here, with this area long having had large Methodist, Quaker and other nonconformist populations (sidenote: there appears to be a religious divide in voting habits to some extent, with a large overlap between Quakers and Green voters and Methodists and Labour voters, but this may just be my impression from the people I know).
Stroud has transitioned from a safe Tory seat to a bellwether in recent years, with David Drew taking the seat for Labour in 1997 and holding on until his defeat in 2010. In 2017 he unseated Tory MP Neil Carmichael, only to lose it back again in 2019. Drew and Carmichael faced each other in 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2017, which must com fairly close to a record of some description.
Stroud, with its high proportion of “religious others” (in this case, a symptom of the, uh, alternative culture (The Light gets handed out on the high street)), in one part of the town and its high proportion of social housing in the other half, is a Labour-Green battleground, with a phenomenal amount of split voting between local and general elections. Stonehouse, the former and current industrial town with a high share of social housing, and the similar village of Eastington nearby, also provide solid Labour votes, as does Cainscross sitting between here and Stroud. Cam and Dursley – respectively a mill town with its industry much cut back, and a factory town without a factory – provide a block of Labour vote although a certain commuter demographic exists here which provides a solid bedrock for the Tories – this alongside Nailsworth (quite socially divided) are the seat’s bellwethers, normally voting with the overall winner.
And what of the Tory support? The wealthier areas of the outskirts of Stroud, as well as the agricultural communities of the Severn Vale and the vale of Berkeley elect the Tory MPs here. Berkeley itself is still home to the very influential Berkeley family, and the Berkeley hunt is a genuine part of the local community to……mixed reactions. This helps explain why the town is slightly more Conservative than you feel it should be. Sharpness, on the other hand, is an old docking town, at one point one of the largest ports in the South West (no surprises for guessing its political allegiance!)
In the boundary changes, we gained the Wotton-Under-Edge ward, comprising the eponymous town and nearby North Nibley (the famous Tyndale Monument is also in this ward – that nonconformist history rearing its head again). This ward has had its politics affected by being in a safe Conservative seat for a long time, and the LibDems have successfully squeezed the Labour vote to almost nothing, at least at local level. In return, the constituency lost the Gloucester suburb of Hardwicke, and the Cotswolds villages of Painswick and Bisley. Thes changes will have shaved perhaps a couple of thousand votes from the Tory majority, although it will also have had a significant negative impact on the Greens, who have dramatically increased their vote share in the West Cotswolds region recently.
So, post-industrial, a little alternative, rural deprivation side-by-side with some of the country’s wealthiest villages. Truth be told there are many constituencies like this in the country (though nowhere really has an equivalent of Stroud, Hebden Bridge possibly excepted), though what sets this one apart is its marginal status. A very active and hard-working local Labour Party have kept Labour in contention in this seat, when they have fallen back sharply in many similar ones. With its weird and wonderful collection of communities, issues, and history, this is certainly one of the more fascinating constituencies in the country, and one that Labour will likely need to win to form a government for the foreseeable future.
