Skipton and Ripon

[stb12]

Skipton and Ripon

[YL]

Almanac profile

Candidates

Julian Smith* (Con)
Andy Brown (Green)
Simon Garvey (Reform UK)

[kvasir]

The Nowcast at Election maps UK currently predicts this seat as a Labour gain:

electionmaps.uk/nowcast

Labour Party: 34.4% (+15.2%)
Conservative Party: 30.0% (-28.9%)
Reform UK: 15.5% (+15.5%)
Liberal Democrats: 12.0% (-3.2%)
Green Party: 7.7% (3.0%)
Other: 0.4% (-1.6%)

Personally, I don't think this will happen, I think the anti-Tory vote will not unite behind Labour and the Liberal Democrats will do better, splitting the vote. But it certainly is indicative that the Tories are doing so poorly that this seat is being predicted to fall in serious Nowcast.

[finsobruce]

Mar 24, 2024 11:28:36 GMT kvasir said:

The Nowcast at Election maps UK currently predicts this seat as a Labour gain:

electionmaps.uk/nowcast

Labour Party: 34.4% (+15.2%)
Conservative Party: 30.0% (-28.9%)
Reform UK: 15.5% (+15.5%)
Liberal Democrats: 12.0% (-3.2%)
Green Party: 7.7% (3.0%)
Other: 0.4% (-1.6%)

Personally, I don't think this will happen, I think the anti-Tory vote will not unite behind Labour and the Liberal Democrats will do better, splitting the vote. But it certainly is indicative that the Tories are doing so poorly that this seat is being predicted to fall in serious Nowcast.

The fascinating Skipton wartime by election of 1944 comes to mind. The Commonwealth party winner Hugh Lawson pledged that he would not stand at the general election and the Tories regained the seat. I can't remember why he made that pledge (he stood at Harrow West instead) but i'll try and dig out the reasons.

[The Bishop]

You have to suspect that the LibDems rather dropped the ball here when they - rather strangely - didn't stand a candidate in 2017.

[johnloony]

Mar 24, 2024 11:28:36 GMT kvasir said:

The Nowcast at Election maps UK currently predicts this seat as a Labour gain:

electionmaps.uk/nowcast

Labour Party: 34.4% (+15.2%)
Conservative Party: 30.0% (-28.9%)
Reform UK: 15.5% (+15.5%)
Liberal Democrats: 12.0% (-3.2%)
Green Party: 7.7% (3.0%)
Other: 0.4% (-1.6%)

Personally, I don't think this will happen, I think the anti-Tory vote will not unite behind Labour and the Liberal Democrats will do better, splitting the vote. But it certainly is indicative that the Tories are doing so poorly that this seat is being predicted to fall in serious Nowcast.

The idea that the Conservative vote would go down from 59% to 30% is intrinsically ridiculous, and that fact alone makes the whole prediction / projection a load of nonsense.

[carolus]

Mar 24, 2024 11:59:08 GMT The Bishop said:

You have to suspect that the LibDems rather dropped the ball here when they - rather strangely - didn't stand a candidate in 2017.

I seem to remember there was a local agreement with the greens, presumably in exchange for their absence from harrogate.

[maxque]

Mar 24, 2024 12:03:41 GMT johnloony said:

Mar 24, 2024 11:28:36 GMT kvasir said:

The Nowcast at Election maps UK currently predicts this seat as a Labour gain:

electionmaps.uk/nowcast

Labour Party: 34.4% (+15.2%)
Conservative Party: 30.0% (-28.9%)
Reform UK: 15.5% (+15.5%)
Liberal Democrats: 12.0% (-3.2%)
Green Party: 7.7% (3.0%)
Other: 0.4% (-1.6%)

Personally, I don't think this will happen, I think the anti-Tory vote will not unite behind Labour and the Liberal Democrats will do better, splitting the vote. But it certainly is indicative that the Tories are doing so poorly that this seat is being predicted to fall in serious Nowcast.

The idea that the Conservative vote would go down from 59% to 30% is intrinsically ridiculous, and that fact alone makes the whole prediction / projection a load of nonsense.

If/when the Conservative get 19% nationally, how do you think the drop will happen instead?

[batman]

I don't think for one moment that the Tories will get as little as 19% in the general election. Less than 30%, however, that's very possible & in fact pretty likely.

[Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith]

Mar 24, 2024 11:34:58 GMT finsobruce said:

Mar 24, 2024 11:28:36 GMT kvasir said:

The Nowcast at Election maps UK currently predicts this seat as a Labour gain:

electionmaps.uk/nowcast

Labour Party: 34.4% (+15.2%)
Conservative Party: 30.0% (-28.9%)
Reform UK: 15.5% (+15.5%)
Liberal Democrats: 12.0% (-3.2%)
Green Party: 7.7% (3.0%)
Other: 0.4% (-1.6%)

Personally, I don't think this will happen, I think the anti-Tory vote will not unite behind Labour and the Liberal Democrats will do better, splitting the vote. But it certainly is indicative that the Tories are doing so poorly that this seat is being predicted to fall in serious Nowcast.

The fascinating Skipton wartime by election of 1944 comes to mind. The Commonwealth party winner Hugh Lawson pledged that he would not stand at the general election and the Tories regained the seat. I can't remember why he made that pledge (he stood at Harrow West instead) but i'll try and dig out the reasons.

The Skipton District Labour Party decided to endorse Lawson, the Common Wealth candidate, in exchange for the guarantee that Lawson would stand down in favour of a Labour candidate at the next general election. according to wiki. Their source By-Elections in British Politics by Cook and Ramsden

[johnloony]

Mar 24, 2024 14:00:39 GMT maxque said:

Mar 24, 2024 12:03:41 GMT johnloony said:

The idea that the Conservative vote would go down from 59% to 30% is intrinsically ridiculous, and that fact alone makes the whole prediction / projection a load of nonsense.

If/when the Conservative get 19% nationally, how do you think the drop will happen instead?

The Conservative vote isn’t going to drop to 19% nationally, so the question doesn’t arise.

But if it did, then the figures you have quoted would indeed be viable and realistic (or an even bigger drop).