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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 23:06:15 GMT
Ribble Valley
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Mar 14, 2024 6:34:49 GMT
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Post by ideal4radio on Apr 12, 2024 21:01:00 GMT
If Ribble Valley swings from Conservative to Labour, I should be extremely surprised !! I haven't got a hat to eat, nor do I have sawdust to plait ... you get my drift !!
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 12, 2024 21:17:07 GMT
If Ribble Valley swings from Conservative to Labour, I should be extremely surprised !! I haven't got a hat to eat, nor do I have sawdust to plait ... you get my drift !! Presume you mean you don't think it'll swing far enough for Labour to win? - there will undoubtedly be a swing of some sort to Labour and probably quite a large one.
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Post by ideal4radio on Apr 12, 2024 22:59:38 GMT
If Ribble Valley swings from Conservative to Labour, I should be extremely surprised !! I haven't got a hat to eat, nor do I have sawdust to plait ... you get my drift !! Presume you mean you don't think it'll swing far enough for Labour to win? - there will undoubtedly be a swing of some sort to Labour and probably quite a large one. Indeed my friend, you read me correctly !!
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,555
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Post by European Lefty on Apr 12, 2024 23:27:35 GMT
What happened with the two wards from the district elections last year where it turned out that a few voters had voted in the wrong ward?
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Member is Online
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Post by YL on Apr 13, 2024 9:17:40 GMT
What happened with the two wards from the district elections last year where it turned out that a few voters had voted in the wrong ward? The narrowly defeated Conservative candidates in both affected wards decided not to launch a petition because of the costs of doing so: story here.
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Apr 13, 2024 11:52:17 GMT
This must have been one of the best Conservative results in 1997, there was hardly any swing away from them and Evans was elected by almost the same majority. Then again, one could say the ‘1997-esque’ swing had already occurred in 1992 in the wake of the by-election the year before, and the LDs had hit a pretty hard ceiling, on a general election basis at least, despite their sensational victory in 1991.
Whilst Evans hails from the South Wales valleys, he seems to have made himself part of the furniture in this very different valley.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 13, 2024 19:07:22 GMT
This must have been one of the best Conservative results in 1997, there was hardly any swing away from them and Evans was elected by almost the same majority. Then again, one could say the ‘1997-esque’ swing had already occurred in 1992 in the wake of the by-election the year before, and the LDs had hit a pretty hard ceiling, on a general election basis at least, despite their sensational victory in 1991. Whilst Evans hails from the South Wales valleys, he seems to have made himself part of the furniture in this very different valley. A thought. Do outsiders who get stuck in end up with a bigger moat than locals? You're not stuck in the ancient grudges etc. You don't have that latent negative vote built on years of personal relationships.
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Post by where2travel on Apr 13, 2024 22:30:55 GMT
This must have been one of the best Conservative results in 1997, there was hardly any swing away from them and Evans was elected by almost the same majority. Then again, one could say the ‘1997-esque’ swing had already occurred in 1992 in the wake of the by-election the year before, and the LDs had hit a pretty hard ceiling, on a general election basis at least, despite their sensational victory in 1991. Whilst Evans hails from the South Wales valleys, he seems to have made himself part of the furniture in this very different valley. You're right that the 1997 swing flattered the Tories because the 1992 result was so poor for them (relatively speaking). In 1992 they didn't manage to unwind much of the damage done in the 1991 by-election (but enough to win back the seat). In 1987 the Tories were on an over 60% vote share and 40% majority. Post-by-election the majority was only 12% in 1992. 1997 was no more than just unravelling a bit more of the by-election damage.
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