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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 21:53:26 GMT
Kingston and Surbiton
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Post by swingometer on Apr 28, 2024 21:52:43 GMT
Sir Nigel Fisher MP
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 1, 2024 1:14:22 GMT
Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work | Con | Lab | Lib |
| | | | | | 1945 | 55.1% | 44.9% | | | 1950 | 59.2% | 34.3% | 6.5% | | 1951 | 63.4% | 36.6% | | | 1955 | 63.7% | 36.3% | | | 1959 | 65.7% | 34.3% | | | 1964 | 57.1% | 37.6% | 5.3% | | 1966 | 54.9% | 40.5% | 4.6% | |
| Con | Lab | Lib/LD | Grn | Ind Con | | | | | | | 1970 | 52.8% | 33.0% | 11.0% | | 3.2% | 1974 | 45.4% | 27.2% | 27.4% | | | 1974 | 45.4% | 30.4% | 24.2% | | | 1979 | 55.8% | 28.2% | 16.0% | | | 1983 | 52.9% | 14.8% | 30.7% | 1.0% | | 1987 | 54.5% | 14.4% | 30.1% | 0.8% | | 1992 | 51.7% | 19.1% | 27.9% | | |
| Con | Lab | LD | Ref/UKIP/ BXP | Grn | | | | | | | 1997 | 35.2% | 22.3% | 38.8% | 2.3% | | 2001 | 28.5% | 9.5% | 59.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2005 | 32.4% | 13.1% | 51.4% | 1.4% | | 2010 | 36.4% | 9.2% | 50.2% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 2015 | 39.4% | 14.8% | 34.1% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 2017 | 37.2% | 14.6% | 45.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2019 | 33.0% | 10.4% | 52.7% | 1.0% | 1.7% |
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Post by stb12 on May 1, 2024 7:21:32 GMT
Could the Tories have held onto a 2015 gain like this for longer if Brexit hadn’t happened or was it always likely that the Lib Dems would come back quickly regardless?
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willpower3
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Post by willpower3 on May 1, 2024 8:04:29 GMT
Could the Tories have held onto a 2015 gain like this for longer if Brexit hadn’t happened or was it always likely that the Lib Dems would come back quickly regardless? Tactical voting from the left with memories of the Coalition fading would have probably bagged this seat for the Lib Dems in a 2019/20 election after a four or five year Parliament.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 1, 2024 8:49:35 GMT
I don't know - I think 2015 presented a real opportunity to kill off the Lib Dems (not entirely but to consign them for a generation to a mere handful of seats). Some of those that survived 2015 would have followed later (as they did - Norfolk North, Southport, Carshalton etc). I don't blame Brexit but that stupid bitch for calling a totally unnecessary election which aside from boosting Corbyn provided a quick way back for the likes of Davey, Swinson and Cable. Another two or three years out of parliament and they would have probably moved onto other things or retired
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Ports
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Post by Ports on May 1, 2024 10:34:24 GMT
Could the Tories have held onto a 2015 gain like this for longer if Brexit hadn’t happened or was it always likely that the Lib Dems would come back quickly regardless? Tactical voting from the left with memories of the Coalition fading would have probably bagged this seat for the Lib Dems in a 2019/20 election after a four or five year Parliament. Not least considering only a small drop in the Tory vote would be required anyway - whether that manifested itself in the next election after 2015 or a later one.
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john07
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Post by john07 on May 1, 2024 11:44:21 GMT
Nigel Fisher, MP for Surbiton from 1955 to 1983, was a very liberal Tory and friend of Iain Macleod, and came up against opposition from his own party activists. Harold Wilson referred to them as 'skinheads'. His son Mark became Labour MP for Stoke-on-Trent Central,
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