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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 21:50:42 GMT
Hornsey and Friern Barnet
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Post by John Chanin on Mar 18, 2024 3:53:29 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 29, 2024 19:02:22 GMT
Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work | | Con | Lab | Lib | Com | | | | | | | | 1945 | 49.4% | 30.4% | 3.6% | 16.6% | | 1950 | 52.8% | 37.4% | 8.4% | 1.5% | | 1951 | 57.2% | 41.7% | 1.2% | | | 1955 | 58.4% | 38.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | | 1959 | 55.1% | 33.2% | 10.1% | 1.6% | | 1964 | 47.8% | 37.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | | 1966 | 45.4% | 42.4% | 10.3% | 1.9% |
| | Con | Lab | Lib/LD | NF/BNP | | | | | | | | 1970 | 50.5% | 40.3% | 7.9% | | | 1974 | 41.8% | 38.1% | 20.1% | | | 1974 | 41.3% | 42.1% | 13.6% | 2.9% | | 1979 | 48.5% | 40.1% | 10.0% | 1.1% | | 1983 | 41.9% | 36.0% | 20.5% | | | 1987 | 41.8% | 40.5% | 15.9% | | | 1992 | 38.1% | 49.1% | 10.5% | |
| | Con | Lab | LD | Grn | Ref/UKIP/
BXP | | | | | | | | | 1997 | 23.5% | 60.4% | 11.4% | 2.3% | 1.5% | | 2001 | 18.3% | 50.9% | 22.3% | 5.3% | | | 2005 | 15.8% | 39.5% | 38.3% | 5.1% | 1.2% | | 2010 | 18.2% | 34.0% | 43.8% | 2.3% | 0.5% | | 2015 | 13.0% | 49.3% | 27.7% | 6.5% | 2.6% | | 2017 | 14.6% | 65.5% | 16.0% | 2.4% | 0.6% | | 2019 | 11.8% | 57.3% | 25.6% | 3.8% | 0.9% |
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Post by swingometer on Apr 29, 2024 19:07:50 GMT
Sir Hugh Rossi MP
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Post by greenhert on Apr 29, 2024 19:26:29 GMT
Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work | | Con | Lab | Lib | Com | | | | | | | | 1945 | 49.4% | 30.4% | 3.6% | 16.6% | | 1950 | 52.8% | 37.4% | 8.4% | 1.5% | | 1951 | 57.2% | 41.7% | 1.2% | | | 1955 | 58.4% | 38.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | | 1959 | 55.1% | 33.2% | 10.1% | 1.6% | | 1964 | 47.8% | 37.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | | 1966 | 45.4% | 42.4% | 10.3% | 1.9% |
| | Con | Lab | Lib/LD | NF/BNP | | | | | | | | 1970 | 50.5% | 40.3% | 7.9% | | | 1974 | 41.8% | 38.1% | 20.1% | | | 1974 | 41.3% | 42.1% | 13.6% | 2.9% | | 1979 | 48.5% | 40.1% | 10.0% | 1.1% | | 1983 | 41.9% | 36.0% | 20.5% | | | 1987 | 41.8% | 40.5% | 15.9% | | | 1992 | 38.1% | 49.1% | 10.5% | |
| | Con | Lab | LD | Grn | Ref/UKIP/
BXP | | | | | | | | | 1997 | 23.5% | 60.4% | 11.4% | 2.3% | 1.5% | | 2001 | 18.3% | 50.9% | 22.3% | 5.3% | | | 2005 | 15.8% | 39.5% | 38.3% | 5.1% | 1.2% | | 2010 | 18.2% | 34.0% | 43.8% | 2.3% | 0.5% | | 2015 | 13.0% | 49.3% | 27.7% | 6.5% | 2.6% | | 2017 | 14.6% | 65.5% | 16.0% | 2.4% | 0.6% | | 2019 | 11.8% | 57.3% | 25.6% | 3.8% | 0.9% |
Without Wood Green and with Friern Barnet I believe that in reality the Conservatives would have just held on in 1992 and the Liberal Democrats would have definitely won this seat in 2005 as well as 2010. The pre-1983 Hornsey seat never elected any Labour MPs despite Labour coming close in 1974, whereas the 1950-1983 version of Wood Green (without Southgate that became a separate seat in 1950) elected Labour MPs throughout. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 29, 2024 19:32:27 GMT
Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work Without Wood Green and with Friern Barnet I believe that in reality the Conservatives would have just held on in 1992 and the Liberal Democrats would have definitely won this seat in 2005 as well as 2010. The pre-1983 Hornsey seat never elected any Labour MPs despite Labour coming close in 1974, whereas the 1950-1983 version of Wood Green (without Southgate that became a separate seat in 1950) elected Labour MPs throughout. I'll be interested to see your figures |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 29, 2024 19:34:03 GMT
The new Hornsey and Friern Barnet (2024-) has a very small part of the Wood Green seat before 1983 - the Alexandra Park area, which was the most Tory part of Wood Green.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,369
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 29, 2024 19:41:40 GMT
Just take your f ucking ADHD medication and log off. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 29, 2024 19:51:24 GMT
It's a bit of a miconception that Hornsey & Wood Green was marginal because it pitted Conservative Hornsey against Labour Wood Green. The Conservatives were competitive in Wood Green itself but it was a safe Labour constituency because of the inclusion of North Tottenham wards. The three Wood Green wards which depart this seat would have voted pretty much like the constituency as a whole (ie Labour around 10% ahead in 1992) so their removal doesn't alter the balance that much then. Labour's strongest wards in H & WG in 1992 were actually in Central Hornsey, South Hornsey and Hornsey Vale. The Lib Dems were certainly stronger in the Hornsey wards than in Wood Green but it was not that stark. The other parts of the jigsaw which is being missed are the removal of Highgate (still Conservative voting in 1992 even taking account of Archway and very Lib Dem in 2005) and the addition of the heavily Labour Harringay ward from Tottenham. Friern Barnet wouldn't have boosted the Conservatives much in 1992 - it isn't the area covered by the ward which existed at that time (which is mostly in Chipping Barnet) but more resembles the old Woodhouse ward. The Conservatives might have been ahead by a small amount in 1992 but not nearly by enough to outvote the Haringey wards. Meanwhile it would clearly have boosted Labour vs the Lib Dems in 2005 - enough on its own to swing the result.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 29, 2024 19:54:42 GMT
I mean 'in reality' the Lib Dems might have won this seat in 2005 on these boundaries, because had it existed they would have worked more in Harringay and Friern Barnet, probably got some tactical Conservative votes in FB etc.
But that isn't how notional results work.
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Post by batman on Apr 29, 2024 20:19:33 GMT
Just take your f ucking ADHD medication and log off. I've reported the post. Please young sir, quit your spamming, you're being extremely boring. |
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