Prediction Competition - March 2024

[Tony Otim]

Starting this thread early, hope robbienicoll doesn't mind, as a reminder that there's a Wednesday contest this week to kick things off.

We'll also need a ruling as to whether Orkney, Stromness and the Southern Isles on 28th March is included as this will be a contest between 2 Independent candidates only.

[robbienicoll]

There are currently 12 by-elections to be held during March.

- 1 by-election on 6 March (a Wednesday)
- 3 on 7 March
- 2 on 14 March
- 4 on 21 March
- 2 on 28 March

4 by-elections are for Welsh authorities, all last contested in 2022
3 are for district councils, all last contested in 2023
2 are for unitary authorities, 1 last contested in 2022 and 1 in 2021
1 is for a Scottish council last contested in 2022
1 is for a Metropolitan borough council last contested in 2023

Conservatives defend 4 seats, 2 following a resignation, 1 of which was sitting as an Independent, 1 following the death of the previous councillor and 1 a disqualification
Labour defend 2 seats, both following the death of the previous councillor
Liberal Democrats defend 2 seats, both following the death of the previous councillor
Independents defend 2 seats, 1 following a resignation and 1 a disqualification
Plaid Cymru defend 1 seat (although have not put up a defending candidate) following a resignation

With 10 of 12 SOPNs having been published, there is a full slate of 10 Labour candidates, 8 Conservatives and Liberal Democrats and 5 Greens along with 1 apiece for the SNP, Plaid Cymru, Scottish Greens, UKIP, Independent Green Voice, Gwlad and Lincolnshire Independents together with 7 Independents and 1 No Description contesting 6 elections – a total of 46 candidates for 10 seats.

Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election. Orkney isn't included as it's a straight Independent fight - there's a requirement for 1+ registered political parties to be on the ballot to be part of the competition.

[Tony Otim]

Mar 4, 2024 19:23:11 GMT robbienicoll said:

Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election. Orkney isn't included as it's a straight Independent fight - there's a requirement for 2+ registered political parties to be on the ballot to be part of the competition.

Pedantry clarification here, but is the rule not 1+ registered political parties, otherwise Bridgend this week would also be excluded as a straight Lab-Ind fight?

[Tony Otim]

Possibility for this to go badly wrong:
Carmarthenshire: Williams (Ind) 32.6; Lab 27.2; PC 11.7; Con 7.9; LD 7.6; Burdess 6.5; UKIP 3.8; Gwlad 3.0

[robbienicoll]

Mar 4, 2024 19:30:10 GMT Tony Otim said:

Mar 4, 2024 19:23:11 GMT robbienicoll said:

Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election. Orkney isn't included as it's a straight Independent fight - there's a requirement for 2+ registered political parties to be on the ballot to be part of the competition.

Pedantry clarification here, but is the rule not 1+ registered political parties, otherwise Bridgend this week would also be excluded as a straight Lab-Ind fight?

I had to go all the way back to November 2019 to find what I'd ruled previously as I seemed to remember a case of one party amongst five or so Independents which I'd not included. Right enough this had happened in Shetland but I'd gone against precedent on that occasion not including it. Happy to stick with 1+ going forward (therefore including Bridgend) as that seems the better option for most outcomes.

[Robert Waller]

Carmarthenshire: Williams (Ind) 30; Lab 31; PC 15; Con 5; LD 5; Burdess 10; UKIP 2; Gwlad 2

[batman]

CARMARTHENSHIRE, Elli : Lab 37 PC 19 Ind Burdess 17 Ind Williams 11 Con 8 LD 5 Gwlad 2 UKIP 1

BRIDGEND, Aberkenfig : Lab 56 Ind 44

GLASGOW, Hillhead : Green 28 Lab 27 SNP 23 Con 11 LD 6 Ind Green 3 McGinley 2. Green win

MID DEVON, Upper Yeo & Taw : LD 51 C 38 Lab 7 Green 4

LEWISHAM, Mayoral by-election : Lab 43 Green 18 LD 15 C 12 WP 8 Long 3 CPA 1

[johnloony]

CARMARTHENSHIRE: PC 6 IndB 27 Gwlad 2 LD 6 Lab 23 UKIP 1 Con 4 IndW 31
BRIDGEND: Lab 49 Ind 51
GLASGOW: Lab 34 Con 4 Grn 32 IGV 2 SNP 24 (-) 1 LD 3 (Green win)
MID DEVON: Con 26 Grn 8 Lab 13 LD 53

[johnloony]

Is there a separate competition for Lewisham?

if not: Lab 57 WPB 6 Green 17 Ind 4 LD 7.4 CPA 0.6 Con 8

[kevinf]

Carmarthenshire
Lab 33, PC 23, Ind Williams 14, Ind Burdess 12, LD 10, Con 6, Galadriel 1.5, Ukip 0.5

[greenman]

John Loony your numbers in Hillhead do not add up for a Green win. So either you reversed the numbers or you are predicting a Labour win.

[andrewp]

Mar 5, 2024 18:03:42 GMT greenman said:

John Loony your numbers in Hillhead do not add up for a Green win. So either you reversed the numbers or you are predicting a Labour win.

They have a STV system for local elections in Scotland, so he is predicting that Lab will be ahead on first preferences but that the Greens will win.

[johnloony]

Mar 5, 2024 18:03:42 GMT greenman said:

John Loony your numbers in Hillhead do not add up for a Green win. So either you reversed the numbers or you are predicting a Labour win.

GLASGOW: Lab 34 Con 4 Grn 32 IGV 2 SNP 24 (-) 1 LD 3 (Green win)

34 + 4 = 38
+ 32 = 70
+ 2 = 72
+ 24 = 96
+ 1 = 97
+ 3 = 100

Green would (according to my predikshun) win mainly because of SNP transfers. I haven't even used a calculator but I don't see what doesn't add up.

[corradino]

Carmarthenshire, Elli: Williams (Ind) 33, Lab 32, Burdess (Ind) 12, PC 9, Con 8, LD 3, Gwlad 2, UKIP 1.

[iainbhx]

Sir Gâr WUA, Elli: Ind Williams 29, Lab 26, Ind Burdess 16, Con 13, Plaid 9, LDm 4, Gwlad 2, UKIP 1

[andrewp]

Mar 5, 2024 0:27:58 GMT robbienicoll said:

Mar 4, 2024 19:30:10 GMT Tony Otim said:

Pedantry clarification here, but is the rule not 1+ registered political parties, otherwise Bridgend this week would also be excluded as a straight Lab-Ind fight?

I had to go all the way back to November 2019 to find what I'd ruled previously as I seemed to remember a case of one party amongst five or so Independents which I'd not included. Right enough this had happened in Shetland but I'd gone against precedent on that occasion not including it. Happy to stick with 1+ going forward (therefore including Bridgend) as that seems the better option for most outcomes.

Am I correct in assuming that we are not including the Lewisham mayoral election this week?

[andrewp]

Carmarthenshire. Elli. Willliams 34, Lab 31, Con 10, PC 10, Burdess 8, LD 5, Gwlad 1, UKIP 1

[Tony Otim]

Bridgend: Richards 56.1; Lab 43.9
Glasgow: Lab 31.5; Grn 30.7; SNP 23.4; LD 6.5; Con 5.8; McGinlay 1.7; IGV 0.4 (Grn win on transfers)
Mid Devon: LD 42.5; Con 35.6; Lab 13.6; Grn 8.3

[greenman]

Apologies John Loony, you are absolutely correct. There is a reason why I gave up the competition, noting Scotland uses STV.

[carolus]

Carmarthenshire, Elli:
Con 8, Lab 20, LD 5, PC 15, Gwlad 5, UKIP 2, Ind (Williams) 35, Ind (Burdess) 10