Post by Robert Waller on Feb 14, 2024 23:26:06 GMT
This is based on the previous profile by jacoblamsden, and the comments in the first and last paragraphs about the boundary changes and their effects should be credited to Pete Whitehead. I have added material on the 2022 London borough elections and the 2021 census findings.
Going into the 2023 review Eltham was considerably under quota and in the proposals by the Boundary Commission (the initial, revised plans and final plans were the same) the Shooters Hill ward has been removed to Erith & Thamesmead. To achieve the quota nearly 20,000 voters have been brought in from the borough of Bromley in the wards of Chislehurst and Mottingham. Chislehurst is an overwhelmingly strong Conservative ward. Mottingham is somewhat more marginal (historically indeed a Labour ward which contributed to previous Labour victories in the old Chislehurst seat in the 1945 and 1966 general elections). Overall the addition of these two wards together with the loss of Shooters Hill (Labour's strongest ward in the current Eltham) transforms the political balance of this seat. The Mottingham area itself spills across the borough boundary (the Coldharbour & New Eltham ward has now been renamed 'Mottingham, Coldharbour & New Eltham') so there is some logic to the pairing.
Eltham, located to the south of the Royal Borough of Greenwich, is an unlikely London suburb to house a historic royal palace. While most places with a royal connection have a lingering opulence about them, the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea, Windsor and Royal Tunbridge Wells perhaps, few would say Eltham warrants such a description. Perhaps this is because Eltham has been influenced far more by industry and the military than it has by royalty, located close enough to Woolwich to have developed into a residential area for many working at the Royal Arsenal and Royal Artillery Barracks. Eltham is clearly a cut above Woolwich though, with some fine housing such as the Eltham Park and Progress Estates built to house senior and skilled workers.
But whilst Eltham may not be particularly posh, neither is it a gritty London suburb. For somewhere admitted into the County of London in 1889, Eltham feels still remarkably distant from much of the capital. Population density is low for London standards, with large areas of green space around New Eltham and woodland near Shooters Hill. The constituency, but particularly Eltham itself, has little of the diversity of Woolwich or Lewisham with three of the four Eltham wards three-quarters White British. There are also fewer privately rented properties and a much higher owner occupation rate than most London seats.
All these statistics would seem to point to it having been a Conservative seat, especially since neighbouring Bromley and Chislehurst, Old Bexley and Sidcup, and Bexleyheath and Crayford have all usually been safely in the blue column. It is therefore a puzzle, not so much that Eltham went Labour in the landslide of 1997 but that it has stayed there ever since. Despite the constituency voting to leave in the EU referendum and the Brexit Party topping the poll at the most recent European elections, ex-cab driver Clive Efford has hung on with his majority: in the 2019 general election a relatively comfortable 3,197.
Some of the explanation for Labour’s resilience here is that there was more to the seat than Eltham itself. The three wards in the north and west of the constituency as previously constituted – Shooters Hill, Kidbrooke and Hornfair and Middle Park and Sutcliffe - are easily Labour, having a much higher proportion of renters, a younger average age and a much higher ethnic population (this being south-east London it is more black than Asian). But since these three wards could be outvoted by the four Eltham wards, Labour must also be competitive in Eltham itself.
This is borne out by the last set of local election results in May 2022 which yielded no safe wards for the Conservatives in the Eltham constituency. As in most London boroughs, these 2022 contests were fought on new ward boundaries, but the essential pattern remains the same. The Tories couldn’t even take a full house in Eltham Town & Avery Hill, the whitest and wealthiest ward of them all, or in the southernmost ward near the Bromley border, now named Mottingham, Coldharbour & New Eltham. Both of these wards returned split representation in 2022: two Conservatives out of three in the latter and one out of three in the former. This was the first time since 1994, and before that 1971, that Labour had taken a seat in the Greenwich Mottingham based ward – and the first time since the creation of that London borough that they had in the southern Eltham town ward. Labour also gained a seat to complete their set in Eltham Park & Progress (the successor to Eltham North).
The Conservatives were not even close to gaining a seat in Eltham Page (formerly West), a ward with plenty of the white working-class demographic which has swung so much to the Conservative in recent elections. As before Labour won the other wards wholly or mainly in the Greenwich part of the new constituency all by over two to one: Middle Park & Horn Park in the south western corner of the borough, Kidbrooke Park and Kidbrooke Village & Sutcliffe to its north. In the Bromley borough elections in May 2022, the Conservatives held Mottingham fairly narrowly, but lost all three seats in Chislehurst ward to a localist group, ‘Chislehurst Matters’, who declare “We love Chislehurst! We are absolutely passionate about it and determined that it should get the time, attention and money it deserves” - and seem to be most concerned about road and traffic issues.
Overall, the demographic impact of the mutation from plain Eltham to Eltham & Chislehurst make the seat somewhat more middle class and up-market, but not so much so as to transform its political character. For example the percentage of owner occupied housing rose from 56.4% to 59.1%, which moves the seat 30 places up the rank order of all those in England and Wales, but still leaves it in the lower half on that variable – though above average for Greater London. Analysing the 2021 census figures in detail, as might be expected the most owner occupiers are to be found in Chislehurst: 73% in Chislehurst North MSOA and 82% in Chislehurst West & Elmstead. However this is not a radical change as there were already parts of Eltham which were overwhelmingly owner occupied, such as Eltham North MSOA (76%), with Eltham Park above 60% and Kidbrooke Park at 70% - while the Mottingham part of Bromley borough that has been added is still 33% social rented and only has a minority owner occupied. Overall Eltham & Chislehurst will still be 70th out of 575 constituencies in England and Wales as far as the social rented percentage is concerned, down only from 59th for the previous Eltham, also on 2021 census figures.
Turning to ethnicity, the new boundaries see the White percentage rise from 67.8% to 71.4%, but there are still around 10% in both the Black and Asian categories – not exceptional for London but well above the national average, particularly the former (still in the top decile of all constituencies).The Asian communities are spread fairly evenly round the whole seat, including in the Chislehurst section (9.7% in the affluent Chislehurst West & Elmstead MSOA for example) with a slight peak in the two Kidbrooke MSOAs at between 13% and 14%. The Black population on the other hand is focused more in two areas, one at the north end of the seat and one towards the south. The former is Kidbrooke (whose North output area is 17% Black, and its South 15%), and the latter is the former LCC council estate of Mottingham (12.6%).
In terms of occupational class, the managerial and professional percentage increases from 36.2% to 38.3% as a result of the boundary changes, a rise of 37 places in the national rankings: still well above average nationally if not for Greater London. Within the new Eltham & Chislehurst this figure is by far the highest in the newly added extreme south, Chislehurst West & Elmstead (56%), slightly more in professional (31%) than managerial. However within the old boundaries Eltham Park and Kidbrooke South (which abuts Blackheath) were both around 45%. Routine and semi-routine jobs were nowhere prevalent, as is typical of London as a while, but reached a peak in Eltham West and Middlepark & Horn Park, at around 25%. Interestingly the boundary changes make almost no difference to the levels of educational qualification. This is for two reasons. One is that the new arrivals cancel themselves out, as while Chislehurst has slightly more residents with degrees (about 45%) than the previous Eltham average of 40%, Mottingham has fewer (33%). The other is that reducing the proportion of ethnic minority groups does not lower educational achievement. Indeed the highest concentration of university graduates is in Kidbrooke South (53%), which is only 61% White.
Whatever the real reason for Conservative under-performance over successive elections in Eltham, the current Father of the House, Peter Bottomley, was certainly right to make a chicken run from Eltham to safer pastures in Worthing back in 1997. For if Eltham could not go Conservative even in 2019, it had to be categorised as a Labour seat in all usual circumstances in its guise up to and including that date. However the boundary changes that create Eltham & Chislehurst apparently, but probably only apparently, threaten that status.
This is the only Labour seat in London to be translated into a 'notional' Conservative seat based on the 2019 results. It is hardly by an insurmountable margin though – under 3,500 according to the Rallings & Thrasher ‘official’ figures - and given the continued drift of much of Eltham away from the Conservatives and the likely strong national swing at the next election, a Conservative held Eltham & Chislehurst seat may not (ever?) become a reality.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 15.4% 434/575
Owner occupied 59.1% 411/575
Private rented 16.5% 358/575
Social rented 24.4% 70/575
White 71.4% 457/575
Black 10.8% 54/575
Asian 9.4% 167/575
Managerial & professional 38.2% 146/575
Routine & Semi-routine 17.9% 462/575
Degree level 40.0% 114/575
No qualifications 17.8% 280/575
Students 7.3% 178/575
General Election 2019: Eltham
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Clive Efford 20,550 47.0 -7.4
Conservative Louie French 17,353 39.7 -1.1
Liberal Democrats Charley Hasted 2,941 6.7 +3.6
Brexit Party Steve Kelleher 1,523 3.5 N/A
Green Matthew Stratford 1,322 3.0 N/A
Lab Majority 3,197 7.3 -6.3
Turnout 43,689 68.2 -3.4
Registered electors 64,084
Labour hold
Swing 3.2 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Eltham & Chislehurst consists of
85.8% of Eltham
28.5% of Bromley & Chislehurst
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/london/London_135_Eltham%20and%20Chislehurst_Portrait.pdf
Notional result 2019 on the new boundaries - Rallings & Thrasher
Going into the 2023 review Eltham was considerably under quota and in the proposals by the Boundary Commission (the initial, revised plans and final plans were the same) the Shooters Hill ward has been removed to Erith & Thamesmead. To achieve the quota nearly 20,000 voters have been brought in from the borough of Bromley in the wards of Chislehurst and Mottingham. Chislehurst is an overwhelmingly strong Conservative ward. Mottingham is somewhat more marginal (historically indeed a Labour ward which contributed to previous Labour victories in the old Chislehurst seat in the 1945 and 1966 general elections). Overall the addition of these two wards together with the loss of Shooters Hill (Labour's strongest ward in the current Eltham) transforms the political balance of this seat. The Mottingham area itself spills across the borough boundary (the Coldharbour & New Eltham ward has now been renamed 'Mottingham, Coldharbour & New Eltham') so there is some logic to the pairing.
Eltham, located to the south of the Royal Borough of Greenwich, is an unlikely London suburb to house a historic royal palace. While most places with a royal connection have a lingering opulence about them, the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea, Windsor and Royal Tunbridge Wells perhaps, few would say Eltham warrants such a description. Perhaps this is because Eltham has been influenced far more by industry and the military than it has by royalty, located close enough to Woolwich to have developed into a residential area for many working at the Royal Arsenal and Royal Artillery Barracks. Eltham is clearly a cut above Woolwich though, with some fine housing such as the Eltham Park and Progress Estates built to house senior and skilled workers.
But whilst Eltham may not be particularly posh, neither is it a gritty London suburb. For somewhere admitted into the County of London in 1889, Eltham feels still remarkably distant from much of the capital. Population density is low for London standards, with large areas of green space around New Eltham and woodland near Shooters Hill. The constituency, but particularly Eltham itself, has little of the diversity of Woolwich or Lewisham with three of the four Eltham wards three-quarters White British. There are also fewer privately rented properties and a much higher owner occupation rate than most London seats.
All these statistics would seem to point to it having been a Conservative seat, especially since neighbouring Bromley and Chislehurst, Old Bexley and Sidcup, and Bexleyheath and Crayford have all usually been safely in the blue column. It is therefore a puzzle, not so much that Eltham went Labour in the landslide of 1997 but that it has stayed there ever since. Despite the constituency voting to leave in the EU referendum and the Brexit Party topping the poll at the most recent European elections, ex-cab driver Clive Efford has hung on with his majority: in the 2019 general election a relatively comfortable 3,197.
Some of the explanation for Labour’s resilience here is that there was more to the seat than Eltham itself. The three wards in the north and west of the constituency as previously constituted – Shooters Hill, Kidbrooke and Hornfair and Middle Park and Sutcliffe - are easily Labour, having a much higher proportion of renters, a younger average age and a much higher ethnic population (this being south-east London it is more black than Asian). But since these three wards could be outvoted by the four Eltham wards, Labour must also be competitive in Eltham itself.
This is borne out by the last set of local election results in May 2022 which yielded no safe wards for the Conservatives in the Eltham constituency. As in most London boroughs, these 2022 contests were fought on new ward boundaries, but the essential pattern remains the same. The Tories couldn’t even take a full house in Eltham Town & Avery Hill, the whitest and wealthiest ward of them all, or in the southernmost ward near the Bromley border, now named Mottingham, Coldharbour & New Eltham. Both of these wards returned split representation in 2022: two Conservatives out of three in the latter and one out of three in the former. This was the first time since 1994, and before that 1971, that Labour had taken a seat in the Greenwich Mottingham based ward – and the first time since the creation of that London borough that they had in the southern Eltham town ward. Labour also gained a seat to complete their set in Eltham Park & Progress (the successor to Eltham North).
The Conservatives were not even close to gaining a seat in Eltham Page (formerly West), a ward with plenty of the white working-class demographic which has swung so much to the Conservative in recent elections. As before Labour won the other wards wholly or mainly in the Greenwich part of the new constituency all by over two to one: Middle Park & Horn Park in the south western corner of the borough, Kidbrooke Park and Kidbrooke Village & Sutcliffe to its north. In the Bromley borough elections in May 2022, the Conservatives held Mottingham fairly narrowly, but lost all three seats in Chislehurst ward to a localist group, ‘Chislehurst Matters’, who declare “We love Chislehurst! We are absolutely passionate about it and determined that it should get the time, attention and money it deserves” - and seem to be most concerned about road and traffic issues.
Overall, the demographic impact of the mutation from plain Eltham to Eltham & Chislehurst make the seat somewhat more middle class and up-market, but not so much so as to transform its political character. For example the percentage of owner occupied housing rose from 56.4% to 59.1%, which moves the seat 30 places up the rank order of all those in England and Wales, but still leaves it in the lower half on that variable – though above average for Greater London. Analysing the 2021 census figures in detail, as might be expected the most owner occupiers are to be found in Chislehurst: 73% in Chislehurst North MSOA and 82% in Chislehurst West & Elmstead. However this is not a radical change as there were already parts of Eltham which were overwhelmingly owner occupied, such as Eltham North MSOA (76%), with Eltham Park above 60% and Kidbrooke Park at 70% - while the Mottingham part of Bromley borough that has been added is still 33% social rented and only has a minority owner occupied. Overall Eltham & Chislehurst will still be 70th out of 575 constituencies in England and Wales as far as the social rented percentage is concerned, down only from 59th for the previous Eltham, also on 2021 census figures.
Turning to ethnicity, the new boundaries see the White percentage rise from 67.8% to 71.4%, but there are still around 10% in both the Black and Asian categories – not exceptional for London but well above the national average, particularly the former (still in the top decile of all constituencies).The Asian communities are spread fairly evenly round the whole seat, including in the Chislehurst section (9.7% in the affluent Chislehurst West & Elmstead MSOA for example) with a slight peak in the two Kidbrooke MSOAs at between 13% and 14%. The Black population on the other hand is focused more in two areas, one at the north end of the seat and one towards the south. The former is Kidbrooke (whose North output area is 17% Black, and its South 15%), and the latter is the former LCC council estate of Mottingham (12.6%).
In terms of occupational class, the managerial and professional percentage increases from 36.2% to 38.3% as a result of the boundary changes, a rise of 37 places in the national rankings: still well above average nationally if not for Greater London. Within the new Eltham & Chislehurst this figure is by far the highest in the newly added extreme south, Chislehurst West & Elmstead (56%), slightly more in professional (31%) than managerial. However within the old boundaries Eltham Park and Kidbrooke South (which abuts Blackheath) were both around 45%. Routine and semi-routine jobs were nowhere prevalent, as is typical of London as a while, but reached a peak in Eltham West and Middlepark & Horn Park, at around 25%. Interestingly the boundary changes make almost no difference to the levels of educational qualification. This is for two reasons. One is that the new arrivals cancel themselves out, as while Chislehurst has slightly more residents with degrees (about 45%) than the previous Eltham average of 40%, Mottingham has fewer (33%). The other is that reducing the proportion of ethnic minority groups does not lower educational achievement. Indeed the highest concentration of university graduates is in Kidbrooke South (53%), which is only 61% White.
Whatever the real reason for Conservative under-performance over successive elections in Eltham, the current Father of the House, Peter Bottomley, was certainly right to make a chicken run from Eltham to safer pastures in Worthing back in 1997. For if Eltham could not go Conservative even in 2019, it had to be categorised as a Labour seat in all usual circumstances in its guise up to and including that date. However the boundary changes that create Eltham & Chislehurst apparently, but probably only apparently, threaten that status.
This is the only Labour seat in London to be translated into a 'notional' Conservative seat based on the 2019 results. It is hardly by an insurmountable margin though – under 3,500 according to the Rallings & Thrasher ‘official’ figures - and given the continued drift of much of Eltham away from the Conservatives and the likely strong national swing at the next election, a Conservative held Eltham & Chislehurst seat may not (ever?) become a reality.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 15.4% 434/575
Owner occupied 59.1% 411/575
Private rented 16.5% 358/575
Social rented 24.4% 70/575
White 71.4% 457/575
Black 10.8% 54/575
Asian 9.4% 167/575
Managerial & professional 38.2% 146/575
Routine & Semi-routine 17.9% 462/575
Degree level 40.0% 114/575
No qualifications 17.8% 280/575
Students 7.3% 178/575
General Election 2019: Eltham
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Clive Efford 20,550 47.0 -7.4
Conservative Louie French 17,353 39.7 -1.1
Liberal Democrats Charley Hasted 2,941 6.7 +3.6
Brexit Party Steve Kelleher 1,523 3.5 N/A
Green Matthew Stratford 1,322 3.0 N/A
Lab Majority 3,197 7.3 -6.3
Turnout 43,689 68.2 -3.4
Registered electors 64,084
Labour hold
Swing 3.2 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Eltham & Chislehurst consists of
85.8% of Eltham
28.5% of Bromley & Chislehurst
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/london/London_135_Eltham%20and%20Chislehurst_Portrait.pdf
Notional result 2019 on the new boundaries - Rallings & Thrasher
| Con | 23936 | 46.9% |
| Lab | 20492 | 40.1% |
| LD | 3826 | 7.5% |
| Grn | 1516 | 3.0% |
| BxP | 1317 | 2.6% |
| Majority | 3444 | 6.7% |
