Post by YL on Feb 11, 2024 9:55:43 GMT
For many years, starting in October 1974, the constituency called Bristol North West was a bellwether, a constituency which consistently voted for the winning party in General Elections, in spite of quite substantial boundary changes in both 1983 and 2010 meaning that the actual communities involved varied considerably. However, the wether appears to have lost its bell, with Darren Jones of the Labour Party comfortably gaining the seat in 2017 and holding on in 2019, when the Conservative share of the vote fell by more than his did. This has been quite a recovery for Labour, who had come third, behind the Liberal Democrats, in 2010, and the votes of those who had voted Lib Dem then have presumably helped Labour achieve this.
The boundary changes this time are not major, but the ward of Lockleaze on the eastern edge of the consituency is transferred to the revived Bristol North East, while Bishopston & Ashley Down is added from Bristol West; both of these are Labour voting areas in General Elections, but the Conservatives are a little weaker in Bishopston & Ashley Down, so the changes notionally increase Jones's majority a little.
Demographically, it is quite a mixed constituency. Some areas are extremely middle class, but it also contains extensive council estates, both of the inter-war "cottage" type and of a more modern variety; broadly speaking it is the south of the constituency which is middle class and the north much less so. The middle class areas are generally of the highly educated professional type, and while they do still contribute some Conservative councillors to Bristol City Council it is likely that the shift of the constituency away from that party reflects the unpopularity of Brexit and right wing populism in these areas. The constituency also includes the major docks at Avonmouth, one of the more modern facilities which have largely replaced the harbour in central Bristol.
The middle class areas are centred around Westbury on Trym. The Trym is not a large waterway, but its valley, north of the high ground and open space of the Downs, is a noticeable feature of the north Bristol landscape. Westbury has a centre with a village feel surrounded by swathes of 20th century middle class suburbia. It is traditionally strongly Conservative and continues to be represented by that party on Bristol City Council, now in combination with Henleaze, another very middle class area to its south-east with more of a Liberal Democrat history; however the Conservative win in 2021 was on a relatively low vote share and whether they can hold their seats here in the 2024 Bristol election must be in doubt.
West of Westbury and situated between the Downs and the Trym valley is another very middle class area, Stoke Bishop. Stoke Bishop has the highest level of managerial employment in Bristol and contains many large houses. It is also represented by Conservatives on the city council and, unlike Westbury and Henleaze, still appears to be safe for that party. However, there is a likely source of Labour General Election votes here, because Stoke Bishop also includes an extensive University of Bristol accommodation complex. The ward also includes Sea Mills, near where the Trym flows into the Avon; this is rather different from the rest of the ward and includes a council estate of the cottage type.
To the east of Westbury and Henleaze is Horfield. Horfield lies at the top of Gloucester Road, historically the main route north out of Bristol; it is less middle class than Westbury or Henleaze, and contains some council estates, particularly in the Upper Horfield area in the north of the ward, but still has quite a high professional population. It has often been marginal between Labour and the Conservatives, but Labour were well ahead in 2021 and this is likely one of the areas most responsible for the constituency's swing left. The area generally known as Horfield extends south down Gloucester Road into the new arrival, Bishopston & Ashley Down ward, which includes Horfield Common and HMP Bristol, often known as Horfield Prison. East of Gloucester Road, it includes Gloucestershire County Cricket Club's main ground at Ashley Down. Apart from the prison, this is a largely middle class and professional area, not unlike much of inner north Bristol, with a moderately high student population and a fair amount of private renting. In local elections it has started voting Green, but it is likely to be Labour in General Elections.
The rest of the constituency is less middle class, and has quite high deprivation. To the north-east of Westbury is Southmead, an extensive inter-war council estate; there has been some right to buy, but in the core of the estate over 60% of households remain socially rented. Southmead ward has generally been reliable for Labour, but it did narrowly vote for the Liberal Democrats in 2009. To the north of Southmead is the ward of Henbury & Brentry, which is a more mixed ward. At its western end Henbury itself has a village feel and is close to Blaise Castle, a curious 18th century folly built on the top of a hill and surrounded by a large area of parkland featuring an impressive limestone gorge. Much of the rest of the ward consists of an edge of city council estate, including a couple of tower blocks, but there are also some more middle class areas, and overall the ward is actually one of the most reliably Conservative wards in Bristol.
That hill on which Blaise Castle sits extends south-westwards towards the Avon as a wooded ridge. On the north-west side of that ridge and separated by it from much of the rest of the constituency, is the postwar fringe estate of Lawrence Weston, which includes the most deprived parts of the constituency. Lawrence Weston adjoins and shares its ward with Avonmouth, dominated by those docks and the motorways, including the Avonmouth Bridge which takes the M5 across the Avon into Somerset. Avonmouth is a largely working class area though less dominated by council housing than Lawrence Weston, and the ward also includes Shirehampton, which is demographically similar, though does have some more middle class pockets. Both Avonmouth and Shirehampton, as well as Sea Mills, benefit from stations on a branch line from Bristol Temple Meads. In spite of the largely working class population, this ward has had split representation on Bristol council between Labour and the Conservatives. Finally, a map of the constituency shows a curious salient in the Bristol Channel, though of course this contributes no voters and it does not actually include the islands of Steep Holm and Flat Holm.
Overall the middle class south of the constituency tends to dominate the demographics: it has more people in middle class jobs than in working class ones, and it is a well educated constituency, though in neither case does it look as middle class as Bristol Central, and other than the Gloucester Road area and that one area in Stoke Bishop there are not so many students here. The extensive council estates such as Southmead and Lawrence Weston do, though, show up in a proportion of socially rented housing a little above the England and Wales mean. Under the outgoing boundaries it was the 241st most deprived in the UK, but Lockleaze is quite deprived, so the new boundaries will make it less so. It is not an especially ethnic diverse constituency, and unsurprisingly for Bristol is well above average for those declaring that they have no religion.
Bristol North West first appeared as a name in 1950. That initial version was very similar to the outgoing boundaries, including Lockleaze but not the Ashley Down area. It voted Conservative in 1950 and 1951, but in 1955 Henleaze was removed and this change was enough for Labour to take the seat; however the Tories took it back in 1959 and it then usually voted for the winning party, though the Tories held it in 1964 and again in February 1974. In the 1974 local government changes the City and County of Bristol suffered the indignity of being reduced to the status of a mere district (though still with city status) in the new county of Avon, and this encouraged the Boundary Commission to cross its boundaries with abandon in the changes which came in in 1983. Out went Westbury on Trym, and in came areas outside the city boundary around Filton, and in 1997 this went even further, with Stoke Bishop leaving and being replaced by Patchway and most of the modern development of Bradley Stoke. Throughout this period the constituency maintained its bellwether status, though the Tory win in 1992 was by a mere 45 votes.
The 1990s local government changes abolished Avon and restored the City and County, and in 2010 the Boundary Commission caught up and awarded Bristol four seats with no boundary crossings. The Filton area departed to form the core of the new Filton & Bradley Stoke constituency, and Westbury, Henleaze and Stoke Bishop returned from Bristol West, restoring something close to the original boundaries. That destroyed the Conservative chances in West while initially helping them a bit here, though as discussed since 2017 things have not gone so well for them, and the new boundaries, which historically might have been mildly helpful, will not help them at all now, and they will probably need a general revival among the urban middle class to improve their position here again.
2019 notional result (Rallings & Thrasher):
Lab 28547 (48.9%)
Con 21312 (36.5%)
Lib Dem 4735 (8.1%)
Green 3728 (6.4%)
Brexit Party 83 (0.1%)
Lab majority 7235 (12.4%)
(NB there was no Brexit Party candidate in Bristol North West in 2019, so those votes are from the area added from Bristol West.)
The boundary changes this time are not major, but the ward of Lockleaze on the eastern edge of the consituency is transferred to the revived Bristol North East, while Bishopston & Ashley Down is added from Bristol West; both of these are Labour voting areas in General Elections, but the Conservatives are a little weaker in Bishopston & Ashley Down, so the changes notionally increase Jones's majority a little.
Demographically, it is quite a mixed constituency. Some areas are extremely middle class, but it also contains extensive council estates, both of the inter-war "cottage" type and of a more modern variety; broadly speaking it is the south of the constituency which is middle class and the north much less so. The middle class areas are generally of the highly educated professional type, and while they do still contribute some Conservative councillors to Bristol City Council it is likely that the shift of the constituency away from that party reflects the unpopularity of Brexit and right wing populism in these areas. The constituency also includes the major docks at Avonmouth, one of the more modern facilities which have largely replaced the harbour in central Bristol.
The middle class areas are centred around Westbury on Trym. The Trym is not a large waterway, but its valley, north of the high ground and open space of the Downs, is a noticeable feature of the north Bristol landscape. Westbury has a centre with a village feel surrounded by swathes of 20th century middle class suburbia. It is traditionally strongly Conservative and continues to be represented by that party on Bristol City Council, now in combination with Henleaze, another very middle class area to its south-east with more of a Liberal Democrat history; however the Conservative win in 2021 was on a relatively low vote share and whether they can hold their seats here in the 2024 Bristol election must be in doubt.
West of Westbury and situated between the Downs and the Trym valley is another very middle class area, Stoke Bishop. Stoke Bishop has the highest level of managerial employment in Bristol and contains many large houses. It is also represented by Conservatives on the city council and, unlike Westbury and Henleaze, still appears to be safe for that party. However, there is a likely source of Labour General Election votes here, because Stoke Bishop also includes an extensive University of Bristol accommodation complex. The ward also includes Sea Mills, near where the Trym flows into the Avon; this is rather different from the rest of the ward and includes a council estate of the cottage type.
To the east of Westbury and Henleaze is Horfield. Horfield lies at the top of Gloucester Road, historically the main route north out of Bristol; it is less middle class than Westbury or Henleaze, and contains some council estates, particularly in the Upper Horfield area in the north of the ward, but still has quite a high professional population. It has often been marginal between Labour and the Conservatives, but Labour were well ahead in 2021 and this is likely one of the areas most responsible for the constituency's swing left. The area generally known as Horfield extends south down Gloucester Road into the new arrival, Bishopston & Ashley Down ward, which includes Horfield Common and HMP Bristol, often known as Horfield Prison. East of Gloucester Road, it includes Gloucestershire County Cricket Club's main ground at Ashley Down. Apart from the prison, this is a largely middle class and professional area, not unlike much of inner north Bristol, with a moderately high student population and a fair amount of private renting. In local elections it has started voting Green, but it is likely to be Labour in General Elections.
The rest of the constituency is less middle class, and has quite high deprivation. To the north-east of Westbury is Southmead, an extensive inter-war council estate; there has been some right to buy, but in the core of the estate over 60% of households remain socially rented. Southmead ward has generally been reliable for Labour, but it did narrowly vote for the Liberal Democrats in 2009. To the north of Southmead is the ward of Henbury & Brentry, which is a more mixed ward. At its western end Henbury itself has a village feel and is close to Blaise Castle, a curious 18th century folly built on the top of a hill and surrounded by a large area of parkland featuring an impressive limestone gorge. Much of the rest of the ward consists of an edge of city council estate, including a couple of tower blocks, but there are also some more middle class areas, and overall the ward is actually one of the most reliably Conservative wards in Bristol.
That hill on which Blaise Castle sits extends south-westwards towards the Avon as a wooded ridge. On the north-west side of that ridge and separated by it from much of the rest of the constituency, is the postwar fringe estate of Lawrence Weston, which includes the most deprived parts of the constituency. Lawrence Weston adjoins and shares its ward with Avonmouth, dominated by those docks and the motorways, including the Avonmouth Bridge which takes the M5 across the Avon into Somerset. Avonmouth is a largely working class area though less dominated by council housing than Lawrence Weston, and the ward also includes Shirehampton, which is demographically similar, though does have some more middle class pockets. Both Avonmouth and Shirehampton, as well as Sea Mills, benefit from stations on a branch line from Bristol Temple Meads. In spite of the largely working class population, this ward has had split representation on Bristol council between Labour and the Conservatives. Finally, a map of the constituency shows a curious salient in the Bristol Channel, though of course this contributes no voters and it does not actually include the islands of Steep Holm and Flat Holm.
Overall the middle class south of the constituency tends to dominate the demographics: it has more people in middle class jobs than in working class ones, and it is a well educated constituency, though in neither case does it look as middle class as Bristol Central, and other than the Gloucester Road area and that one area in Stoke Bishop there are not so many students here. The extensive council estates such as Southmead and Lawrence Weston do, though, show up in a proportion of socially rented housing a little above the England and Wales mean. Under the outgoing boundaries it was the 241st most deprived in the UK, but Lockleaze is quite deprived, so the new boundaries will make it less so. It is not an especially ethnic diverse constituency, and unsurprisingly for Bristol is well above average for those declaring that they have no religion.
Bristol North West first appeared as a name in 1950. That initial version was very similar to the outgoing boundaries, including Lockleaze but not the Ashley Down area. It voted Conservative in 1950 and 1951, but in 1955 Henleaze was removed and this change was enough for Labour to take the seat; however the Tories took it back in 1959 and it then usually voted for the winning party, though the Tories held it in 1964 and again in February 1974. In the 1974 local government changes the City and County of Bristol suffered the indignity of being reduced to the status of a mere district (though still with city status) in the new county of Avon, and this encouraged the Boundary Commission to cross its boundaries with abandon in the changes which came in in 1983. Out went Westbury on Trym, and in came areas outside the city boundary around Filton, and in 1997 this went even further, with Stoke Bishop leaving and being replaced by Patchway and most of the modern development of Bradley Stoke. Throughout this period the constituency maintained its bellwether status, though the Tory win in 1992 was by a mere 45 votes.
The 1990s local government changes abolished Avon and restored the City and County, and in 2010 the Boundary Commission caught up and awarded Bristol four seats with no boundary crossings. The Filton area departed to form the core of the new Filton & Bradley Stoke constituency, and Westbury, Henleaze and Stoke Bishop returned from Bristol West, restoring something close to the original boundaries. That destroyed the Conservative chances in West while initially helping them a bit here, though as discussed since 2017 things have not gone so well for them, and the new boundaries, which historically might have been mildly helpful, will not help them at all now, and they will probably need a general revival among the urban middle class to improve their position here again.
2019 notional result (Rallings & Thrasher):
Lab 28547 (48.9%)
Con 21312 (36.5%)
Lib Dem 4735 (8.1%)
Green 3728 (6.4%)
Brexit Party 83 (0.1%)
Lab majority 7235 (12.4%)
(NB there was no Brexit Party candidate in Bristol North West in 2019, so those votes are from the area added from Bristol West.)
