Post by andrewp on Jan 31, 2024 16:46:57 GMT
This is based heavily on the original profile of European Lefty with updates from me including on boundary changes and local election results
The town of Tewkesbury sits roughly in the middle of the northern boundary of the county of Gloucestershire and the constituency to which it gives its name is to the north of Cheltenham and Gloucester. The constituency currently includes the town of Tewkesbury itself at its northern edge, the town of Bishop’s Cleeve just to the north of Cheltenham, the Cheltenham suburbs of Prestbury and Swindon Village, a northern suburb of Gloucester- Longlevens , some built up territory around Brockworth and Churchdown between Gloucester and Cheltenham and a rural stretch out to the east that runs into the north western edge of the Cotswolds. An accurate but unwieldy name for this seat would be North Gloucestershire, Gloucester North and Cheltenham North. A chunk of the northern area of this seat was historically in Worcestershire but was moved into Gloucestershire to connect some of the exclaves with the rest of the county. Even today, while most of the county supports Gloucester Rugby, the people of Tewkesbury and some of the surrounding areas were mostly Worcester fans until the sad demise of that club. Although it is often thought of as a rural area, the reality is that the majority of the population lives in either the town of Tewkesbury itself ( electorate 12,400) Bishops Cleeve ( electorate 14,300), the built up area between Cheltenham and Gloucester, and the misplaced Gloucester ( 8000 until now) or Cheltenham (also 8000 until now) suburbs
Tewkesbury is a historic market town set on an island above the flood plain and is particularly susceptible to flooding. It has a fine Abbey, on which construction started in the 12th century. No profile of anything relating to Tewkesbury would complete without a mention of the town’s medieval fair, the largest such fair in the UK: in 2003 it was estimated to have attracted as many as 25,000 visitors over the weekend, from as far away as New Zealand and the west coast of the USA. It features a medieval camp, with various related stalls and entertainment, and a re-enactment of the Battle of Tewkesbury. The locals also get fully involved, and local businesses in the high street fly the standards of various nobles who fought in the battle, putting information on them in their shop windows, and many even dress up for the festival.
The Battle of Tewkesbury is perhaps the most important historical event to have happened in this area. In 1471, Margaret of Anjou and her Lancastrian army were marching north towards Wales to meet reinforcements led by Jasper Tudor. After they were shut out of Gloucester, they had to cross farther north. They rested at Tewkesbury for the night. Meanwhile, King Edward had been marching to meet them and finally caught up, sandwiching them between the river and their own army. Queen Margaret was captured and the Lancastrians were slaughtered, essentially ending that period of the Wars of the Roses. There has never been much in the way of industry in the area. As with much of Gloucestershire, farming, especially sheep farming, was a major part of the economy. Winchcombe was noted for particular lawlessness in the seventeenth century, such as cattle rustling, driven by local poverty. At least once, soldiers were also sent in to destroy illegal tobacco crop. This is a far cry from the modern constituency, which has a very commuter-oriented profile and is one of the richest in South West England.
Tewkesbury is not the largest town in this seat any more, the more modern and functional Bishops Cleeve, just north of Cheltenham racecourse is now slightly larger. Cheltenham racecourse, home to the famous national hunt festival each March, is within the boundaries of this constituency.
Until 2024, the constituency has Included one ward of Gloucester city- the suburban and middle class Longlevens at the very north of the city- and two wards of Cheltenham borough: Prestbury and Swindon village, which are slightly detached northern suburbs of Cheltenham.
All of the constituencies in Gloucestershire, except for the Forest of Dean, had electorates of over 80,000 in 2019 so the county was awarded an extra half of a constituency and will now share a cross county constituency with Wiltshire. The knock on effect here are that both Cheltenham and Gloucester need to shed another ward each into Tewkesbury. Springbank ward ( 4700 electors) in north west Cheltenham and Elmbridge ward (4800 electors) in north east Gloucester are added to this constituency. This means that there are now about 12000 voters from Gloucester and 13000 from Cheltenham in this seat ( about a third of the electorate now coming from those two areas) In order to remain in quota Tewkesbury, in turn, loses about 21000 voters in the growing modern communities between Gloucester and Cheltenham including Churchdown and Brockworth into the North Cotswolds seat. As Cheltenham and Gloucester continue to grow, some sort of horrible looking Mid Gloucestershire seat, covering eastern Gloucester and western Cheltenham and the communities in between looks possible in due course.
All of the areas joining and leaving are stronger than average for the constituency for the Liberal Democrats so don’t have any significant political effect.
Politically, this is a reliable Tory seat. The seat first existed from 1610 to 1918 and was recreated in 1997, with the current boundaries dating to 2010. It and its predecessors have had an unbroken run of Tory representation since 1885, with the exception of 8 years from 1951-59, when William Morrison was the speaker while representing Cirencester & Tewkesbury. Since its recreation, the LibDems have been second at every election except 2001, 2015 and 2017, when the finished behind Labour. It has usually been a fairly distant second, with the majority falling under 20% on only three occasions, and only falling under 15% once. In 2010, a large Lab to LD swing took the LibDems within 11.7%, and it was starting to look like a possible Lib Dem prospect until the coalition government. Their vote collapsed by 21.7% in 2015 and the majority shot up to 39.7%. In 2019, Laurence Robertson won the seat by 36.6% over the LibDems, winning 58.4% of the vote.
Tewkesbury is not a deprived seat, it is the 3rd least deprived seat in Gloucestershire, behind The Cotswolds and Stroud. However, it scores slightly higher on education, health and barriers to housing and services indices. It is not uniformly well off, and pockets of deprivation exist in the Prior’s Park area of Tewkesbury itself, as well as Northway nearby and a few of the less built-up areas around Cheltenham.
The constituency is 93.8% white. It is on the whole a well educated constituency, with those educated to degree level making up an above-average share of the population and those with no qualifications making up a negligible one. An above average percentage of people have jobs classed as managerial. It is 73.7% owner occupied putting it in the top 100 most owner occupied constituencies and privately and socially rented housing are lower than average. It does have less older people than average and perhaps slightly surprisingly is in the top 100 constituencies for the under 15 age group. The economic profile pushes this seat to the centre-right, as expected, but the social one does not make it especially liberal. The proximity of Gloucester and Cheltenham and the rail links from there through Swindon and Reading to London and to Birmingham make this a popular area for commuters, who account for many of the well-educated people. This demographic is not overwhelmingly liberal or conservative, but mostly somewhere in the middle. The local authority was 53.65% leave; Longlevens would have voted leave, although the two Cheltenham wards would have ben remain, so this figure is probably similar for the constituency.
The 2023 local elections in Tewkesbury district were very poor for the Conservatives. Gloucester last elected in 2021, Cheltenham in 2022 and Tewkesbury in 2023, but in the new seat there are currently 17 Liberal Democrat councillors, 7 Conservatives, 4 Greens and 7 independents and localists of various varieties. Tewkesbury town elected 4 Greens, including them achieving 71% of the vote in the Tewkesbury South ward, and 2 Independents. Bishops Cleeve elected a full slate of 7 Liberal Democrats. The Conservatives were largely reduced to Winchcombe and the rural wards including those between Tewkesbury and Gloucester. Of the two Gloucester wards, Elmbridge is strong for the Liberal Democrats and Longlevens is historically Conservative but split between the Conservative and Liberal Democrats in 2021. Of the now 3 Cheltenham wards in the seat , Springbank is strong for the Liberal Democrats, Swindon Village is trending Liberal Democrat and Prestbury, whilst voting Conservative nationally, is dominated by the localist People Against Bureaucracy group in local elections. No Labour councillor has been elected in the seat since 2003, when 3 were elected to Tewkesbury Borough Council. The deprived parts of Prior’s Park will be stronger for Labour than the seat at large, while the Cheltenham wards probably provide the same for the LibDems. Strength is, of course, relative, and the Conservatives will have swept every ward with ease at recent parliamentary elections.
Overall, this is a well-off, commuter-oriented, economically right-wing, socially moderate constituency. The boundary changes are estimated to reduced the Conservative numerical majority by about 3000 to 19,500 but the Liberal Democrats are still estimated to need a swing in the region of 18%.These demographics have ensured 135 years of Conservative representation so far. The increasing presence of Cheltenham and Gloucester suburbs may mean that the majorities take a downward trajectory, but it is hard to see the Conservatives not continuing to win this seat.
The town of Tewkesbury sits roughly in the middle of the northern boundary of the county of Gloucestershire and the constituency to which it gives its name is to the north of Cheltenham and Gloucester. The constituency currently includes the town of Tewkesbury itself at its northern edge, the town of Bishop’s Cleeve just to the north of Cheltenham, the Cheltenham suburbs of Prestbury and Swindon Village, a northern suburb of Gloucester- Longlevens , some built up territory around Brockworth and Churchdown between Gloucester and Cheltenham and a rural stretch out to the east that runs into the north western edge of the Cotswolds. An accurate but unwieldy name for this seat would be North Gloucestershire, Gloucester North and Cheltenham North. A chunk of the northern area of this seat was historically in Worcestershire but was moved into Gloucestershire to connect some of the exclaves with the rest of the county. Even today, while most of the county supports Gloucester Rugby, the people of Tewkesbury and some of the surrounding areas were mostly Worcester fans until the sad demise of that club. Although it is often thought of as a rural area, the reality is that the majority of the population lives in either the town of Tewkesbury itself ( electorate 12,400) Bishops Cleeve ( electorate 14,300), the built up area between Cheltenham and Gloucester, and the misplaced Gloucester ( 8000 until now) or Cheltenham (also 8000 until now) suburbs
Tewkesbury is a historic market town set on an island above the flood plain and is particularly susceptible to flooding. It has a fine Abbey, on which construction started in the 12th century. No profile of anything relating to Tewkesbury would complete without a mention of the town’s medieval fair, the largest such fair in the UK: in 2003 it was estimated to have attracted as many as 25,000 visitors over the weekend, from as far away as New Zealand and the west coast of the USA. It features a medieval camp, with various related stalls and entertainment, and a re-enactment of the Battle of Tewkesbury. The locals also get fully involved, and local businesses in the high street fly the standards of various nobles who fought in the battle, putting information on them in their shop windows, and many even dress up for the festival.
The Battle of Tewkesbury is perhaps the most important historical event to have happened in this area. In 1471, Margaret of Anjou and her Lancastrian army were marching north towards Wales to meet reinforcements led by Jasper Tudor. After they were shut out of Gloucester, they had to cross farther north. They rested at Tewkesbury for the night. Meanwhile, King Edward had been marching to meet them and finally caught up, sandwiching them between the river and their own army. Queen Margaret was captured and the Lancastrians were slaughtered, essentially ending that period of the Wars of the Roses. There has never been much in the way of industry in the area. As with much of Gloucestershire, farming, especially sheep farming, was a major part of the economy. Winchcombe was noted for particular lawlessness in the seventeenth century, such as cattle rustling, driven by local poverty. At least once, soldiers were also sent in to destroy illegal tobacco crop. This is a far cry from the modern constituency, which has a very commuter-oriented profile and is one of the richest in South West England.
Tewkesbury is not the largest town in this seat any more, the more modern and functional Bishops Cleeve, just north of Cheltenham racecourse is now slightly larger. Cheltenham racecourse, home to the famous national hunt festival each March, is within the boundaries of this constituency.
Until 2024, the constituency has Included one ward of Gloucester city- the suburban and middle class Longlevens at the very north of the city- and two wards of Cheltenham borough: Prestbury and Swindon village, which are slightly detached northern suburbs of Cheltenham.
All of the constituencies in Gloucestershire, except for the Forest of Dean, had electorates of over 80,000 in 2019 so the county was awarded an extra half of a constituency and will now share a cross county constituency with Wiltshire. The knock on effect here are that both Cheltenham and Gloucester need to shed another ward each into Tewkesbury. Springbank ward ( 4700 electors) in north west Cheltenham and Elmbridge ward (4800 electors) in north east Gloucester are added to this constituency. This means that there are now about 12000 voters from Gloucester and 13000 from Cheltenham in this seat ( about a third of the electorate now coming from those two areas) In order to remain in quota Tewkesbury, in turn, loses about 21000 voters in the growing modern communities between Gloucester and Cheltenham including Churchdown and Brockworth into the North Cotswolds seat. As Cheltenham and Gloucester continue to grow, some sort of horrible looking Mid Gloucestershire seat, covering eastern Gloucester and western Cheltenham and the communities in between looks possible in due course.
All of the areas joining and leaving are stronger than average for the constituency for the Liberal Democrats so don’t have any significant political effect.
Politically, this is a reliable Tory seat. The seat first existed from 1610 to 1918 and was recreated in 1997, with the current boundaries dating to 2010. It and its predecessors have had an unbroken run of Tory representation since 1885, with the exception of 8 years from 1951-59, when William Morrison was the speaker while representing Cirencester & Tewkesbury. Since its recreation, the LibDems have been second at every election except 2001, 2015 and 2017, when the finished behind Labour. It has usually been a fairly distant second, with the majority falling under 20% on only three occasions, and only falling under 15% once. In 2010, a large Lab to LD swing took the LibDems within 11.7%, and it was starting to look like a possible Lib Dem prospect until the coalition government. Their vote collapsed by 21.7% in 2015 and the majority shot up to 39.7%. In 2019, Laurence Robertson won the seat by 36.6% over the LibDems, winning 58.4% of the vote.
Tewkesbury is not a deprived seat, it is the 3rd least deprived seat in Gloucestershire, behind The Cotswolds and Stroud. However, it scores slightly higher on education, health and barriers to housing and services indices. It is not uniformly well off, and pockets of deprivation exist in the Prior’s Park area of Tewkesbury itself, as well as Northway nearby and a few of the less built-up areas around Cheltenham.
The constituency is 93.8% white. It is on the whole a well educated constituency, with those educated to degree level making up an above-average share of the population and those with no qualifications making up a negligible one. An above average percentage of people have jobs classed as managerial. It is 73.7% owner occupied putting it in the top 100 most owner occupied constituencies and privately and socially rented housing are lower than average. It does have less older people than average and perhaps slightly surprisingly is in the top 100 constituencies for the under 15 age group. The economic profile pushes this seat to the centre-right, as expected, but the social one does not make it especially liberal. The proximity of Gloucester and Cheltenham and the rail links from there through Swindon and Reading to London and to Birmingham make this a popular area for commuters, who account for many of the well-educated people. This demographic is not overwhelmingly liberal or conservative, but mostly somewhere in the middle. The local authority was 53.65% leave; Longlevens would have voted leave, although the two Cheltenham wards would have ben remain, so this figure is probably similar for the constituency.
The 2023 local elections in Tewkesbury district were very poor for the Conservatives. Gloucester last elected in 2021, Cheltenham in 2022 and Tewkesbury in 2023, but in the new seat there are currently 17 Liberal Democrat councillors, 7 Conservatives, 4 Greens and 7 independents and localists of various varieties. Tewkesbury town elected 4 Greens, including them achieving 71% of the vote in the Tewkesbury South ward, and 2 Independents. Bishops Cleeve elected a full slate of 7 Liberal Democrats. The Conservatives were largely reduced to Winchcombe and the rural wards including those between Tewkesbury and Gloucester. Of the two Gloucester wards, Elmbridge is strong for the Liberal Democrats and Longlevens is historically Conservative but split between the Conservative and Liberal Democrats in 2021. Of the now 3 Cheltenham wards in the seat , Springbank is strong for the Liberal Democrats, Swindon Village is trending Liberal Democrat and Prestbury, whilst voting Conservative nationally, is dominated by the localist People Against Bureaucracy group in local elections. No Labour councillor has been elected in the seat since 2003, when 3 were elected to Tewkesbury Borough Council. The deprived parts of Prior’s Park will be stronger for Labour than the seat at large, while the Cheltenham wards probably provide the same for the LibDems. Strength is, of course, relative, and the Conservatives will have swept every ward with ease at recent parliamentary elections.
Overall, this is a well-off, commuter-oriented, economically right-wing, socially moderate constituency. The boundary changes are estimated to reduced the Conservative numerical majority by about 3000 to 19,500 but the Liberal Democrats are still estimated to need a swing in the region of 18%.These demographics have ensured 135 years of Conservative representation so far. The increasing presence of Cheltenham and Gloucester suburbs may mean that the majorities take a downward trajectory, but it is hard to see the Conservatives not continuing to win this seat.
