Post by froome on Jan 31, 2024 9:48:43 GMT
A constituency of this name first came into being in 2010, and the revised version is an enlarged version of that one, extending the constituency south-westwards as far as Severn Beach. It also aligns the constituency with the revised wards that came into being a few years ago, so includes the Almondsbury area in the south-west, which is part of Severn Vale ward. On its south-eastern side, the revision in wards means that it has also gained the small village of Siston.
This means that it is now essentially Rural South Gloucestershire, with the rest of South Gloucestershire covered by Filton and Bradley Stoke, which is now an almost wholly urban seat, and with the urban Kingswood area of South Gloucestershire split between Bristol North East and North East Somerset and Hanham constituencies.
From west to east, the constituency covers the following areas:
1. The flat lands alongside the Severn Estuary, from Severn Beach northwards to the area around Oldbury-on-Severn. Severn Beach used to be a resort until the building of the sea wall, which left it with a beach of mud, while the rest of this area is agricultural, apart from Oldbury's power station.
2. The town of Thornbury lies on the edge of this area, where it meets the hills, and is an attractive, traditional old market town, but is now also a commuter town, with much expansion having taken place over the last 50 years. Its current population is about 14,500.
3. The range of hills which run northwards, and along which runs the A38, the old Bristol to Gloucester road. There are a few villages along this, from Almondsbury north to Falfield.
4. Lower lying valleys that lie between this range and the Cotswolds further east. There are a number of villages here, such as Charfield, Cromhall and Wickwar, which are remote enough from Bristol to have retained their original character, with rural industries and agriculture.
5. The Yate area at the southern end of the above area. In the 19th century and earlier, Yate developed due to being at the northern end of the Bristol coalfield, but here the coalfield wasn't mined, but remained dug from surface pits. Thus, it didn't develop in the way that mining villages have. Instead, the landed classes retained their estates with small-scale coal extraction taking place on them, and a range of industries grew up that needed access to cheap energy. By the mid 20th century, these had largely died away, and this area then became a commuter area for Bristol, with Yate becoming essentially a new town, growing very rapidly from the 1950s onwards. It now has a population of about 35,000 (Yate parish only covers part of the town, so its population, which is often quoted, is less).
6. The rural edge of the Kingswood area - this area south of Yate includes villages which were part of or close to the coalfield but have remained separate from the urban areas of Kingswood and Yate, stretching from Frampton Cotterell and Coalpit Heath, south-west of Yate, to Wick and Bridgeyate, further south. In the 19th century, Frampton Cotterell became renowned for making hats, which took place mostly as a cottage industry. Most industries have now been lost from this area, and residents largely commute to work.
7. The edge of the Cotswolds - this large area makes up the eastern part of the constituency, and is mostly still a rural economy based on agriculture. It became a very wealthy area due to sheep farming, and this wealth is still very evident, with many stately homes and beautiful villages. The largest village or small town is Chipping Sodbury, which is right on the edge of Yate, but couldn't be more different. It is an attractive town with a very wide street, sitting atop a hill overlooking Yate's modern estates.
Politically, this constituency used to be dominated by the Conservatives, and the current Thornbury and Yate constituency has a Conservative majority of about 12,000. However, at a local level it is now dominated by the Liberal Democrats, who took over as the dominant party in the towns and larger villages in the late 20th century, and rack up very large majorities in all of Yate and also in both Thornbury and Charfield wards. However, the Conservatives retained the vote in the rural parts of the constituency until the latest local elections in 2023, when the Liberal Democrats became competitive in every ward. There is now no ward in the constituency which does not have at least one Liberal Democrat councillor, with the larger rural wards now having split representation, the constituency having 18 Liberal Democrat and 3 Conservative councillors.
In general elections, the Liberal Democrats took over second place in 1983 in the old Northavon constituency, which was similar to the new version of Thornbury and Yate, and overturned a Conservative majority of 12,000 in 1997 to win by 1,500. This increased to about 12,000 by 2010, but after the coalition in 2015, the Conservatives retook what was by then called Thornbury and Yate by 1,500, and increased their majority to 12,000 in later elections.
12,000 seems to be a majority at which ruling parties lose this constituency, and it is very likely to happen again at the next election, as this will be one of the top Liberal Democrat targets. However, the changes to the constituency are not favourable to the party, and the notional Conservative majority is now thought to be about 16,000, though the Liberal Democrats did very well to take the newly included Severn Beach and Pilning ward in 2023, having been 5th and last in the previous local election. A Liberal Democrat win seems the most likely outcome.
This means that it is now essentially Rural South Gloucestershire, with the rest of South Gloucestershire covered by Filton and Bradley Stoke, which is now an almost wholly urban seat, and with the urban Kingswood area of South Gloucestershire split between Bristol North East and North East Somerset and Hanham constituencies.
From west to east, the constituency covers the following areas:
1. The flat lands alongside the Severn Estuary, from Severn Beach northwards to the area around Oldbury-on-Severn. Severn Beach used to be a resort until the building of the sea wall, which left it with a beach of mud, while the rest of this area is agricultural, apart from Oldbury's power station.
2. The town of Thornbury lies on the edge of this area, where it meets the hills, and is an attractive, traditional old market town, but is now also a commuter town, with much expansion having taken place over the last 50 years. Its current population is about 14,500.
3. The range of hills which run northwards, and along which runs the A38, the old Bristol to Gloucester road. There are a few villages along this, from Almondsbury north to Falfield.
4. Lower lying valleys that lie between this range and the Cotswolds further east. There are a number of villages here, such as Charfield, Cromhall and Wickwar, which are remote enough from Bristol to have retained their original character, with rural industries and agriculture.
5. The Yate area at the southern end of the above area. In the 19th century and earlier, Yate developed due to being at the northern end of the Bristol coalfield, but here the coalfield wasn't mined, but remained dug from surface pits. Thus, it didn't develop in the way that mining villages have. Instead, the landed classes retained their estates with small-scale coal extraction taking place on them, and a range of industries grew up that needed access to cheap energy. By the mid 20th century, these had largely died away, and this area then became a commuter area for Bristol, with Yate becoming essentially a new town, growing very rapidly from the 1950s onwards. It now has a population of about 35,000 (Yate parish only covers part of the town, so its population, which is often quoted, is less).
6. The rural edge of the Kingswood area - this area south of Yate includes villages which were part of or close to the coalfield but have remained separate from the urban areas of Kingswood and Yate, stretching from Frampton Cotterell and Coalpit Heath, south-west of Yate, to Wick and Bridgeyate, further south. In the 19th century, Frampton Cotterell became renowned for making hats, which took place mostly as a cottage industry. Most industries have now been lost from this area, and residents largely commute to work.
7. The edge of the Cotswolds - this large area makes up the eastern part of the constituency, and is mostly still a rural economy based on agriculture. It became a very wealthy area due to sheep farming, and this wealth is still very evident, with many stately homes and beautiful villages. The largest village or small town is Chipping Sodbury, which is right on the edge of Yate, but couldn't be more different. It is an attractive town with a very wide street, sitting atop a hill overlooking Yate's modern estates.
Politically, this constituency used to be dominated by the Conservatives, and the current Thornbury and Yate constituency has a Conservative majority of about 12,000. However, at a local level it is now dominated by the Liberal Democrats, who took over as the dominant party in the towns and larger villages in the late 20th century, and rack up very large majorities in all of Yate and also in both Thornbury and Charfield wards. However, the Conservatives retained the vote in the rural parts of the constituency until the latest local elections in 2023, when the Liberal Democrats became competitive in every ward. There is now no ward in the constituency which does not have at least one Liberal Democrat councillor, with the larger rural wards now having split representation, the constituency having 18 Liberal Democrat and 3 Conservative councillors.
In general elections, the Liberal Democrats took over second place in 1983 in the old Northavon constituency, which was similar to the new version of Thornbury and Yate, and overturned a Conservative majority of 12,000 in 1997 to win by 1,500. This increased to about 12,000 by 2010, but after the coalition in 2015, the Conservatives retook what was by then called Thornbury and Yate by 1,500, and increased their majority to 12,000 in later elections.
12,000 seems to be a majority at which ruling parties lose this constituency, and it is very likely to happen again at the next election, as this will be one of the top Liberal Democrat targets. However, the changes to the constituency are not favourable to the party, and the notional Conservative majority is now thought to be about 16,000, though the Liberal Democrats did very well to take the newly included Severn Beach and Pilning ward in 2023, having been 5th and last in the previous local election. A Liberal Democrat win seems the most likely outcome.
