Tandridge Parish Elections

[Bonham Gyles]

There are going to be Parish Council elections in five parishes of Tandridge those being Caterham Valley, Caterham on the Hill, Whyteleafe, Warlingham and Woldingham

Caterham Valley

Caterham Valley is currently made up of the following Councillors

Harestone (3) - 2 Tories, 1 LD
Valley (3) - 2 Tories, 1 LD

4 Tories, 2 Liberal Democrats

The Chair of the Council is Sakina Bradbury, a controversial Tory firebrand who represents the Harestone ward who defected from us to join the Tories in the late 2000s

This could be an interesting Parish election with the all-out elections for Tandridge and I have a feeling we could be able to take the Parish Council from the Tories

My predictions are:

Harestone (3) - 2 LD, 1 Independent
Valley (3) - 3 LD

Whyteleafe

Whyteleafe is made up of the following Councillors

4 Whyteleafe Community Hub, 2 LD, 1 Tory

In the last election, the Labour and Independent Parish Councillors lost their seats to the Tories and a group called the Whyteleafe Community Hub who were elected on the mantra of "People Not Politics"

With the boundary changes, the seven members will be split between a six member Whyteleafe West (the Whyteleafe ward of TDC) and a one member Whyteleafe East (in Warlingham West ward of TDC)

This will be an interesting election that will be difficult to call because the Whyteleafe Community Hub have a lot of support in the village, yet the Tory parish councillor is the previously mentioned Sakina Bradbury, who is not universally liked, especially in Whyteleafe

The only certainty is that Cllr Bradbury will lose her seat on the parish

Caterham-on-the-Hill

Caterham-on-the-Hill was elected in 2021 with the following Parish Councillors

Queens Park (3) - 2 Tories, 1 LD
Portley (3) - 3 LD
Westway (3) - 2 LD, 1 Tory

6 Liberal Democrats, 3 Tories

There have been several resignations and by elections throughout the three year term and the Council's composition is currently:

Queens Park (3) - 3 Tories
Portley (3) - 3 LD
Westway (3) - 3 LD

The current Parish Council Chairperson is Vicky Robinson, our District Councillor for Queens Park and Parish Councillor for Portley

I am not expecting the Tories to make gains especially following the boundary review and the lack of activity from Tory Parish Councillors in Caterham on the Hill

Westway will gain a Parish Cllr from Portley, meaning that Westway will become a four member ward and Portley a two member ward

I am predicting the following for this Parish:

Queens Park (3) - 2 LD, 1 Tory
Portley (2) - 2 LD
Westway (4) - 4 LD

8 Liberal Democrats, 1 Tory

Warlingham

Warlingham was elected in 2021 with the following Councillors

Warlingham East (6) - 4 LD, 1 Independent, 1 Tory
Warlingham West (5) - 5 Tories

Following resignations and by-elections, the Council is currently made up of:

Warlingham East (6) - 5 LD, 1 Independent
Warlingham West (5) - 5 Tories

The Parish Council has a Tory Chairman and Liberal Democrat Vice Chairman but I don't see the Tories keeping control of the Parish Council

I am predicting we will gain a Parish Councillor in the West ward of Warlingham and take control with 6 Councillors compared to 4 Tories and an Independent in the long standing District Councillor Jeremy Pursehouse (who was a Liberal Democrat who left over Brexit)

Woldingham

Woldingham Parish Council was uncontested in 2021 and isn't a political Parish Council, yet the Tory District Councillor was elected Vice Chairman for a period of time

I am not expecting this Parish to be contested in May

[carolus]

Caterham on the Hill
Queens Park (3) - 3 Lab, 1 Con
Westway (4) - 3 Lab, 2 Con, 1 LD
Portley (2) - 1 LD*

Caterham Valley
Harestone (3) - 3 Con, 3 LD, 2 Lab
Valley (3) - 3 Lab, 2 LD, 1 Caterham Residents

Warlingham
East (6) - 5 LD, 1 Con, 1 Lab, 1 Ind
West (5) - 4 Con, 2 Lab, 1 LD

Whyteleafe
West (6) - 6 Whyteleafe Residents Group, 1 Con, 1 Lab
East (1) - 1 Whyteleafe Residents Group*

Woldingham (9) - 8 [], 2 Ind

So, as with the district, quite a lot of Labour candidates, and a bit of a shortage of Lib Dems.

Given the number of candidates, Caterham on the Hill is a guaranteed LD loss to NOC

[Bonham Gyles]

I am surprised that Woldingham Parish Council is being contested in May

My predictions are:

Caterham on the Hill - NOC gain from LD
Caterham Valley - LD gain from Con
Warlingham - LD gain from NOC
Whyteleafe - WRG hold
Woldingham - non political but likely similar makeup to pre-election

[carolus]

Caterham on the Hill - 4 Lab, 2 Con, 2 LD, 1 Vacancy - NOC gain from LD
Queens Park (3) - Con 606*, Lab 412*/390*/376
Westway (4) - LD 814*, Con 527*/481, Lab 549*/508*/495
Portley (2) - 1 LD*

Caterham Valley - 5 LD, 1 Caterham Resident - LD gain from Con
Harestone (3) - LD 726*/587*/515*, Con 459/423/360, Lab 143/120
Valley (3) - LD 742*/707*, CR 479*, Lab 229/160/118

Warlingham - 6 LD, 4 Con, 1 Ind - LD gain from NOC
East (6) - Ind 838*, LD 540*/535*/535*/452*/433*, Con 410, Lab 231
West (5) - Con 588*/574*/515*/465*, LD 442*, Lab 243/230

Whyteleafe - 7 Whyteleafe Residents Group - WRG hold
West (6) - WRG 690*/541*/493*/492*/440*/412*, Lab 239, Con 172
East (1) - 1 Whyteleafe Residents Group*