Post by Robert Waller on Jan 17, 2024 23:27:59 GMT
Credit: original by greenhert
Grantham & Stamford was created in 1997 mainly from Stamford & Spalding plus the town of Grantham itself from the former Grantham constituency, the majority of which became part of Sleaford & North Hykeham. It covered most of the South Kesteven district in Lincolnshire. In the 2023 Boundary Commission report, however, Stamford and its environs in the south west of the constituency are removed (amounting to over 36% of its electorate), to join the whole of Rutland and 11,000 voters from Leicestershire in a Rutland & Stamford division, thus re-creating an entity that had existed between 1918 and 1963.
Meanwhile Grantham (population 45,000 in 2021) gains a new dance partner. A bloc of territory has been added to the south east corner of this seat, also in South Kesteven district, formerly in the well oversized Sleaford & North Hykeham. Right at its southern end is the expanding market town of Bourne (17,500 residents), which has never been named in a parliamentary constituency title before, but which serves to indicate the substantial geographical shift eastwards. Here the geography is much more typical of the flat, low lands of the Lincolnshire Fens, sliding under huge skies towards Spalding and the Wash, more like the justly named Parts of Holland than Kesteven. Overall, despite the movement of the centre of gravity of the seat, the electoral and political impact will be neutral, with the Tory numerical majority in 2019 notionally reduced from 26,000 to 22,000, but the percentage lead still to be over 45% - that is, requiring a swing to Labour of at least 23% for a change of hand.
Grantham made little impact on the national political scene until it achieved a kind of fame as for being the birthplace of perhaps the most famous/infamous Conservative Prime Minister in British history, Margaret Thatcher. In a radio poll in the early 1980s it was voted (almost certainly unfairly) Britain’s most boring town. Grantham is also famous for educating Sir Isaac Newton (whose childhood home was Woolsthorpe Manor, a few miles to its west), swearing in the first female police officer in Britain, Edith Smith, and for being the site of the first UK-built diesel engine and England's oldest inn, the Angel and Royal. Today its main employer is the food-processing industry, with machine industries once having dominated. In fact, despite the Thatcherite connections, there has long been a Labour vote in the more working-class parts of the semi-industrial Grantham: in the Earlesfield and Harrowby wards, for example.
Grantham & Bourne's educational qualifications and home ownership levels are almost exactly average for the East Midlands region and do not deviate too far from the UK average either: a little lower on education, a little more owner occupied with regard to housing. In fact it demographically conforms to the regional average in most respects apart from its population being 95.6% white and over 23% aged over 65. The seat is very close to the national median as far as professional and managerial workers goes, but the routine and semi routine occupation rate is higher.
There are, of course, some variations internally in these demographic variables. The population of the town of Grantham is much younger than the average for the constituency, with only 14% aged over 65 in Grantham SW MSOA and only 15% in Grantham SE, for example. This links with housing tenure, as by far the highest proportion of the social rented sector is in Grantham SW (36%), principally the Earlesfield estate, while Grantham SE has the most private rented housing (36%). It will come as no surprise that the southern half of Grantham has the lowest proportion of professional and managerial workers (16% SW, 25% SE), but Grantham NW has just over 35% in this category, as does Bourne West (36.6%) and more rural areas like Harlaxton, Colsterworth & South Witham (35%) and the oddly named MSOA of Corby Glen, Ropsley & Grantham Outskirts (36%). The highest educational qualifications are in the same areas as identified above for professionals and managerials, although nowhere does it significantly exceed 30%, and the most with no qualifications is Grantham SW (27%). The pattern is fairly flat in many respects across the constituency.
Grantham & Stamford was Conservative since its creation in 1997; that year, Labour still fell 2,692 votes short of unseating (John) Quentin Davies, who had moved there from Stamford & Spalding. Unusually during the 2005-10 Parliament as Labour was going into a downward spiral in the polls Mr Davies defected to Labour even though two years before the defection he claimed Gordon Brown was incompetent and imprudent. Mr Davies cited the "superficial" leadership of David Cameron as the main reason for his defection; he stood in 2010 and despite having only been a Labour MP for 4 years and a Conservative MP for 19 years before that was ennobled as Baron Davies of Stamford. Nick Boles held the seat for the Conservatives in 2010 with Labour falling to third place, in spite of the coverage the surprise defection received. In March 2019, two months before Theresa May resigned as Prime Minister, Nick Boles famously and publicly left the Conservative benches in the middle of a parliamentary session, never to return to them. He stood down in December 2019 and Gareth Davies became Conservative MP in his place.
Locally Grantham leans Conservative, but Labour has always elected at least one or two councillors in Grantham at district level; the rest of the constituency's wards have usually been safely Conservative aside from the occasional Independent challenge. In the most recent municipal contests in May 2023, Labour won no wards outright and only returned two councillors in sharing two wards: Grantham Springfield and Grantham Earlesfield, both in its south western quadrant. The latter was divided with an Independent, which was a loss compared with 2019, but the former with a Conservative; oddly Labour only put up one candidate in Springfield in 2023. The Liberal Democrats only won one within the new boundaries of Grantham & Bourne, a gain in the rural ward of Toller, which actually covers the villages of Folkingham, Billingborough and Horbling. The Greens also had triumphs, topping the poll in Grantham St Vincent’s (in the south east of the town), and electing two of the three councillors in Bourne Austerby (its southern ward, and the site of most of the recent private housing development that has seen Bourne’s population rise grow by 51% between 2001 and 2021).
The second most successful force in the South Kesteven elections within the new constituency that year, however, was the Independents. They won rural wards stretching from the northernmost, Loveden Heath and Viking, which almost reaches the town of Newark-on-Trent across the Nottinghamshire border, and which includes the very affluent village of Long Bennington just off the A1 as well as Dry Doddington and Claypole – all the way through Belmont outside Grantham down to share each of the three Bourne wards (East, West and Austerby) with the Tories. They also elected at least one councillor in no fewer than five of the Grantham wards. The Conservatives did win a swathe of rural wards in the central section of the constituency, including Belvoir, in the Lincolnshire part of the Vale of that name but not including the castle, which is over the border in the Croxton Kerrial ward of the Melton district of Leicestershire. They did manage to accumulate six councillors across five Grantham wards, but only monopolised the representation of one of them, Barrowby Gate due west of the town centre.
Overall the Conservatives still finished top in the addition of the voting in May 2023, but only just, with 34.5% compared with the 33.9% amassed by Independents. Labour got 19%, Green 8% and Lib Dems less than 5%. Given that many of those Independent votes, though not all by any means, will transfer to the Tories in the 2024 general election, they should win safely enough, and the shade of Margaret Thatcher will not have to groan at the strapline ‘Labour gains Grantham’ passing across the TV screens.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 23.1% 129/575
Owner occupied 68.7% 215/575
Private rented 18.6% 263/575
Social rented 12.7% 397/575
White 95.6% 162/575
Black 0.7% 403/575
Asian 2.0% 392/575
Managerial & professional 32.3% 295/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.8% 176/575
Degree level 28.3% 389/575
No qualifications 18.0% 265/575
Students 4.7% 466/575
General Election 2019: Grantham and Stamford
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Gareth Davies 36,794 65.7 +3.7
Labour Kathryn Salt 10,791 19.3 -7.2
Liberal Democrats Harrish Bisnauthsing 6,153 11.0 +5.5
Green Anne Gayfer 2,265 4.0 +2.6
C Majority 26,003 46.4 +10.9
2019 electorate 81,502
Turnout 56,003 68.7 -0.5
Conservative hold
Swing 5.4 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Grantham and Bourne consists of
63.7% of Grantham and Stamford
21.3% of Sleaford & North Hykeham
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/east-midlands/East%20Midlands_016_Grantham%20and%20Bourne_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
Grantham & Stamford was created in 1997 mainly from Stamford & Spalding plus the town of Grantham itself from the former Grantham constituency, the majority of which became part of Sleaford & North Hykeham. It covered most of the South Kesteven district in Lincolnshire. In the 2023 Boundary Commission report, however, Stamford and its environs in the south west of the constituency are removed (amounting to over 36% of its electorate), to join the whole of Rutland and 11,000 voters from Leicestershire in a Rutland & Stamford division, thus re-creating an entity that had existed between 1918 and 1963.
Meanwhile Grantham (population 45,000 in 2021) gains a new dance partner. A bloc of territory has been added to the south east corner of this seat, also in South Kesteven district, formerly in the well oversized Sleaford & North Hykeham. Right at its southern end is the expanding market town of Bourne (17,500 residents), which has never been named in a parliamentary constituency title before, but which serves to indicate the substantial geographical shift eastwards. Here the geography is much more typical of the flat, low lands of the Lincolnshire Fens, sliding under huge skies towards Spalding and the Wash, more like the justly named Parts of Holland than Kesteven. Overall, despite the movement of the centre of gravity of the seat, the electoral and political impact will be neutral, with the Tory numerical majority in 2019 notionally reduced from 26,000 to 22,000, but the percentage lead still to be over 45% - that is, requiring a swing to Labour of at least 23% for a change of hand.
Grantham made little impact on the national political scene until it achieved a kind of fame as for being the birthplace of perhaps the most famous/infamous Conservative Prime Minister in British history, Margaret Thatcher. In a radio poll in the early 1980s it was voted (almost certainly unfairly) Britain’s most boring town. Grantham is also famous for educating Sir Isaac Newton (whose childhood home was Woolsthorpe Manor, a few miles to its west), swearing in the first female police officer in Britain, Edith Smith, and for being the site of the first UK-built diesel engine and England's oldest inn, the Angel and Royal. Today its main employer is the food-processing industry, with machine industries once having dominated. In fact, despite the Thatcherite connections, there has long been a Labour vote in the more working-class parts of the semi-industrial Grantham: in the Earlesfield and Harrowby wards, for example.
Grantham & Bourne's educational qualifications and home ownership levels are almost exactly average for the East Midlands region and do not deviate too far from the UK average either: a little lower on education, a little more owner occupied with regard to housing. In fact it demographically conforms to the regional average in most respects apart from its population being 95.6% white and over 23% aged over 65. The seat is very close to the national median as far as professional and managerial workers goes, but the routine and semi routine occupation rate is higher.
There are, of course, some variations internally in these demographic variables. The population of the town of Grantham is much younger than the average for the constituency, with only 14% aged over 65 in Grantham SW MSOA and only 15% in Grantham SE, for example. This links with housing tenure, as by far the highest proportion of the social rented sector is in Grantham SW (36%), principally the Earlesfield estate, while Grantham SE has the most private rented housing (36%). It will come as no surprise that the southern half of Grantham has the lowest proportion of professional and managerial workers (16% SW, 25% SE), but Grantham NW has just over 35% in this category, as does Bourne West (36.6%) and more rural areas like Harlaxton, Colsterworth & South Witham (35%) and the oddly named MSOA of Corby Glen, Ropsley & Grantham Outskirts (36%). The highest educational qualifications are in the same areas as identified above for professionals and managerials, although nowhere does it significantly exceed 30%, and the most with no qualifications is Grantham SW (27%). The pattern is fairly flat in many respects across the constituency.
Grantham & Stamford was Conservative since its creation in 1997; that year, Labour still fell 2,692 votes short of unseating (John) Quentin Davies, who had moved there from Stamford & Spalding. Unusually during the 2005-10 Parliament as Labour was going into a downward spiral in the polls Mr Davies defected to Labour even though two years before the defection he claimed Gordon Brown was incompetent and imprudent. Mr Davies cited the "superficial" leadership of David Cameron as the main reason for his defection; he stood in 2010 and despite having only been a Labour MP for 4 years and a Conservative MP for 19 years before that was ennobled as Baron Davies of Stamford. Nick Boles held the seat for the Conservatives in 2010 with Labour falling to third place, in spite of the coverage the surprise defection received. In March 2019, two months before Theresa May resigned as Prime Minister, Nick Boles famously and publicly left the Conservative benches in the middle of a parliamentary session, never to return to them. He stood down in December 2019 and Gareth Davies became Conservative MP in his place.
Locally Grantham leans Conservative, but Labour has always elected at least one or two councillors in Grantham at district level; the rest of the constituency's wards have usually been safely Conservative aside from the occasional Independent challenge. In the most recent municipal contests in May 2023, Labour won no wards outright and only returned two councillors in sharing two wards: Grantham Springfield and Grantham Earlesfield, both in its south western quadrant. The latter was divided with an Independent, which was a loss compared with 2019, but the former with a Conservative; oddly Labour only put up one candidate in Springfield in 2023. The Liberal Democrats only won one within the new boundaries of Grantham & Bourne, a gain in the rural ward of Toller, which actually covers the villages of Folkingham, Billingborough and Horbling. The Greens also had triumphs, topping the poll in Grantham St Vincent’s (in the south east of the town), and electing two of the three councillors in Bourne Austerby (its southern ward, and the site of most of the recent private housing development that has seen Bourne’s population rise grow by 51% between 2001 and 2021).
The second most successful force in the South Kesteven elections within the new constituency that year, however, was the Independents. They won rural wards stretching from the northernmost, Loveden Heath and Viking, which almost reaches the town of Newark-on-Trent across the Nottinghamshire border, and which includes the very affluent village of Long Bennington just off the A1 as well as Dry Doddington and Claypole – all the way through Belmont outside Grantham down to share each of the three Bourne wards (East, West and Austerby) with the Tories. They also elected at least one councillor in no fewer than five of the Grantham wards. The Conservatives did win a swathe of rural wards in the central section of the constituency, including Belvoir, in the Lincolnshire part of the Vale of that name but not including the castle, which is over the border in the Croxton Kerrial ward of the Melton district of Leicestershire. They did manage to accumulate six councillors across five Grantham wards, but only monopolised the representation of one of them, Barrowby Gate due west of the town centre.
Overall the Conservatives still finished top in the addition of the voting in May 2023, but only just, with 34.5% compared with the 33.9% amassed by Independents. Labour got 19%, Green 8% and Lib Dems less than 5%. Given that many of those Independent votes, though not all by any means, will transfer to the Tories in the 2024 general election, they should win safely enough, and the shade of Margaret Thatcher will not have to groan at the strapline ‘Labour gains Grantham’ passing across the TV screens.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 23.1% 129/575
Owner occupied 68.7% 215/575
Private rented 18.6% 263/575
Social rented 12.7% 397/575
White 95.6% 162/575
Black 0.7% 403/575
Asian 2.0% 392/575
Managerial & professional 32.3% 295/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.8% 176/575
Degree level 28.3% 389/575
No qualifications 18.0% 265/575
Students 4.7% 466/575
General Election 2019: Grantham and Stamford
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Gareth Davies 36,794 65.7 +3.7
Labour Kathryn Salt 10,791 19.3 -7.2
Liberal Democrats Harrish Bisnauthsing 6,153 11.0 +5.5
Green Anne Gayfer 2,265 4.0 +2.6
C Majority 26,003 46.4 +10.9
2019 electorate 81,502
Turnout 56,003 68.7 -0.5
Conservative hold
Swing 5.4 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Grantham and Bourne consists of
63.7% of Grantham and Stamford
21.3% of Sleaford & North Hykeham
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/east-midlands/East%20Midlands_016_Grantham%20and%20Bourne_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
Con | 32152 | 65.8% | ||
Lab | 9759 | 20.0% | ||
LD | 4407 | 9.0% | ||
Grn | 2108 | 4.3% | ||
Majority | 22393 | 45.8% |