Post by Robert Waller on Jan 3, 2024 19:11:36 GMT
This is a joint effort between The Bishop (original profiles), Pete Whitehead (boundary changes), and myself (collation, some additions, latest local elections, latest Census - for which the hard work was done, as in all these profiles, by bjornhattan)
After the latest review of the Boundary Commission for England, which presented its final report in June 2023 and was approved by Order in Council in November of that year, the Penrith and Solway seat was created. It is in effect the successor to Workington, as it contained the majority (57.6%) of that constituency, 35,000 or voters being merged with nearly 30,000 from Penrith & The Border and another 6,000 each from Carlisle and from Copeland, in the form of Keswick and the north western lakes. This is despite the placing of the eponymous town in Whitehaven & Workington, in which Workington itself (with around 20,000 voters) is added to most of Copeland. However while technically the former Penrith and The Border has been abolished, as it forms the largest part of no successor seat, Penrith & Solway does include more of it (43.4%) than any other seat now does. Therefore this profile will include material about both the former constituencies.
Workington
A constituency of this name had existed since the 1918 general election. In the century since its main centre had always been the coastal industrial town of Workington, but the boundaries have otherwise been fairly flexible over the years - though they have generally shifted northwards over time until the seat had a significant border with Carlisle to its north east. Its other biggest towns have been Maryport and (since 1950) Cockermouth, with Aspatria another significant urban centre that was added in 1997. There are also a fair number of largeish villages in Workington's vicinity, which historically served the Cumberland coalfield - which was however shut down by the early 1980s causing quite a bit of local hardship. Workington itself was not unaffected by this and also suffered with the more recent closure of its once substantial local steel industry. Even by Cumbrian standards this area has a quite insular feel in certain parts, and this is reflected in the Workington seat being over 98.5% white even in 2021 - the highest figure for former constituencies in all of England/Wales (and just edging out neighbouring Penrith & The Border for that title). But at least some of the old mining villages have now become attractive to commuters, and the seat also contained a significant slice of genuine rural territory, plus the NW corner of the Cumbrian mountains.
Prior to 1918 the town of Workington was contained in the old Cockermouth seat, Labour stood in the last few elections before its demise but made relatively little impression on what was still a close Tory/Liberal battle. Then the seat was split into a redrawn Cockermouth/Penrith division and the new (until 1950 fairly compact) Workington seat, and given previous form it may have surprised some to see Labour win with over half the vote. And things stayed that way - Labour won by 55-45 over the Tories even in their epochal disaster year of 1931, were actually unopposed in 1935, and then won by nearly 3 to 1 a decade later. A major redrawing then saw the seat significantly expanded and taking in Cockermouth and a swathe of countryside - this made the Tories more competitive but did not seriously threaten Labour's grip on the seat - results remaining roughly in the 60%-40% range with remarkably low swings overall, until the Liberals showed up in the second 1974 GE for the first time since the original contest for this seat in 1918.
They made little impression then and Labour still won by approaching 10k, so moving the veteran MP Fred Peart (first elected in 1945) to the Lords two years later in 1976 appeared reasonable despite the government's precarious parliamentary position. However, in the byelection Tory hopeful Richard Page (who had stood in both 1974 elections, even achieving a small pro-Tory swing in the first against the national trend) pulled off a famous victory by just over a thousand votes and a 13% swing. The beaten Labour candidate then, Dale Campbell-Savours (a man of Keswick, in this seat until 2010) duly got his revenge in 1979 and indeed won fairly comfortably whilst Page soon resumed his political career, for rather longer, in Hertfordshire - Campbell-Savours afterwards consolidating his position until he had a majority of close to 20k and 40% in his final election of 1997.
However in 2001 there was an above average swing to the Tories, partly due to the foot and mouth epidemic that devastated much of Cumbria, and new MP (and former MEP) Tony Cunningham saw the Labour majority almost halved. Unlike in other Cumbrian seats, though, there were further swings to the Tories in both subsequent polls, and by 2010 (Cunningham's last outing) Workington had become semi-marginal. There were also indications of some trouble for Labour at local level in that time - both UKIP and even the semi-moribund BNP polled strongly in some local wards and prior to the 2013 county elections some veteran Labour councillors in Workington town were deselected in acrimonious circumstances, only to be easily re-elected as Independents.
So in 2015 the new Labour hopeful Sue Hayman knew she had a fight on her hands, she actually managed a tiny swing and increase in the Labour majority but could hardly have failed to notice the strong third place - with nearly 20% of the vote - for UKIP's candidate, one Mark Jenkinson. The following year, 2016, the constituency voted for Brexit by about 60-40, and the subsequent UKIP collapse made Tories confident of exploiting that come the 2017 GE. In the event Hayman was returned with over 51% - Labour's best share since 2001 - but there was still a small pro-Tory swing as the 16 point drop in UKIP's share split more in their favour, as expected. Any thoughts Labour might have seen off the threat, though, were surely dashed by results in the 2019 district council elections that were little short of disastrous in many cases - especially in Workington itself where they were reduced to just a handful of councillors (perhaps tellingly, they held up much better in more middle class Cockermouth) and then come the "Brexit election" in December 2019 an early constituency poll showed the Tories poised to grab this seat for the first time ever at a GE. The poll was not universally believed, but come the early hours of December 13 - when Mark Jenkinson (yes, the UKIP candidate four years earlier) had been duly returned by over 4k - a winning margin of 10% and a swing (the largest in Cumbria) almost as big - it became clear it had actually been almost unerringly accurate. As a SC member Hayman (now in the HoL) was one of Labour's higher profile casualties in 2019.
Penrith and The Border
This constituency existed, in its form up to and including 2019, since the 1950 general election - in that time it had usually been the largest seat by area in England and skirted the city constituency of Carlisle to take in the northernmost parts of Cumbria that (as the name suggests) borders Scotland. Since the 1983 GE it had taken in the northern part of historic Westmorland, and took a bit more of that for the 2010 GE which meant it for the first time encompassed all of the Eden district. At the same time, it shed some peripheral areas of the seat to both Carlisle and Workington.
A remarkable 99% of people here were white in 2011 - second in the whole of England – and in the 2021 census on old boundaries this figure was still 98.2%. A large percentage (72%) represented either home owners or paying a mortgage. Penrith was the largest town, but even that was mostly service and tourism related (with a traditional output from agriculture) rather than industrial. The other main towns were Appleby, the notably elevated Alston, and Wigton (the last two actually have some industry) but the vast bulk of this constituency was rural - much of it given over to farming but also containing the northern Lake District and part of the northern Pennines (including the highest point in that extensive range, Cross Fell).
The predecessor seats to Penrith & the Border - North Cumberland and Penrith and Cockermouth - actually had some Liberal successes after they were set up in 1918. The latter elected a Liberal in 1922 only for the Tories to win a year later, come 1935 the Liberals did not even stand a candidate. But in that same year they had a breakthrough in North Cumberland, and the winner then narrowly held in 1945 (helped in both cases by having no Labour opponent) Come the following election the entirety of that seat and the eastern part of P&C went into the new constituency (the area around Cockermouth being taken by Workington) Penrith and the Border then started as it meant to go on, with a comfortable Tory win by nearly 9k against the Liberals with Labour not far behind. The following election in 1951 saw the Tories go above 50% of the vote and Labour move into second place - two factors that remained in situ for a remarkably stable series of results that continued until 1979. From 1955 the sitting Tory for this by then heartland seat was William Whitelaw, who became part of the local "furniture" whilst making a name for himself in national politics, not least as Thatcher's loyal deputy after she saw him off for the Tory leadership in 1975. In his final contest in 1983, he took nearly 60% of the vote and a 15k majority - the ease of his win may have convinced the PM to move him "upstairs" to the Lords as their new leader just a matter of days after the election.
It nearly cost the Tories dear, unlike in most seats in their post-1950 dark days the Liberals had never given up here - fielding a candidate in every GE since the war and always saving their deposit even at its old 12.5% level - and in that year's contest they had moved into a comfortable second with over a quarter of the vote. The July 1983 byelection - so soon after the Tories’ historic landslide win - saw them cut the Conservative majority to barely 500 votes, and a recount was required to see their hopeful David Maclean (a Scot just like his predecessor) elected after a swing of nearly 15% to the Liberals. Any hopes this had any longer term significance were dashed in 1987, however, as Maclean took over 60% - following this up in 1992 with a Tory majority of 18k, their highest ever up to that point.
Tory dominance was only dented here even in 1997, and in 2010 Maclean handed over to yet another Scottish born Tory, Rory Stewart. In 2015, with the opposition unusually divided as the Lib Dems (second in every election since 1983) dropped to fourth, he enjoyed a majority of nearly 20k - still the record in this seat. A totally secure place to pursue his own ambitions then, which culminated in an ill fated bid for the leadership come Theresa May's exit, but as it was the main threat to him came from his "own" side as he became one of the more prominent victims of the Cummings "purge" of pro-Europeans in 2019, and at that December's election he dropped previously announced plans to stand as an Independent allowing the new Tory standard bearer Neil Hudson (yet another Scot!) to romp home with 60% and a majority of 18.5k.
At council level the Tory hegemony was not as total as it is for Westminster, even as they slowly but steadily push out the traditionally dominant Independents from the rural wards in local elections - Penrith has often elected non-Tory councillors, Labour have had a significant presence in Melvyn Bragg’s home town of Wigton (peer and one time SDP stalwart Roger Liddle winning the county council seat even in their poor year of 2017) and Alston, whilst the Lib Dems started to clean up in historic Westmorland in the south of the seat (mindful not least of the possibility of that area going south to Tim Farron's patch in boundary changes, one strongly suspects). But all that was ultimately drowned out up to and including 2019 by the deep-dyed Tory DNA of most of this constituency.
Penrith and Solway
Essentially the whole of the Workington seat from Maryport northwards and eastwards is included in Penrith & Solway, for example the towns of Aspatria, Cockermouth and Keswick. In its inland south sector, formerly in Copeland, it takes in some famed and picturesque Lake District sites including Crummock Water, Buttermere and Loweswater (and yes, Bassenthwaite Lake), the Derwent Valley and the mountains of Skiddaw and part of Helvellyn. Of course it reaches the Solway Firth at Silloth, Cardurnock and Bowness-on-Solway.
The most recent local elections here were those for the new Cumberland unitary authority in May 2022. Within Penrith & Solway, Labour were victorious in both Maryport wards, though not by the kind of massive margins they had in the late 20th century – in fact in Maryport North they held off an Independent challenge by only 30 votes, and in South by a more comfortable margin, but still with just 54% of the overall vote. Labour won three other Cumberland wards within this new seat in 2022: Dearham & Broughton just inland from Maryport, and the towns of Wigton and Keswick. The other wards were shared around. An Independent took Aspatria. The Greens won the extensive Lakeland ward of Bothel & Wharrels centred on the Derwent Valley and Bassenthwaite Lake. The Tories won Solway Coast, and the inland Thursby ward which includes Caldbeck and its fells. Finally, the Liberal Democrats won the one ward formerly in Carlisle constituency, Dalston & Burgh.
The large minority of Penrith & The Border included in the new Penrith & Solway is, of course, as the name implies, centred on the town of Penrith, with its five former wards (two after the change to the unitary authority of Westmorland & Furness). It also comprises the whole of the section of the former seat north of Penrith, from Skelton and Hesket in the west through Lazonby and Kirkoswald to Alston Moor in the north eastern corner. In the May 2022 Westmorland & Furness unitary authority elections, it was the Liberal Democrats who won both Penrith North and South. To its north west, the Conservatives won the Hesket & Lazonby ward, while to its north east Alston & Fellside was shared between an Independent and Labour.
Demographically, Penrith & Solway is midway between Workington and Penrith & The Border in most of its characteristics: it is distinctly older than average with 26% aged over 65, higher still in the Lakes: 30% in Keswick and the Derwent Valley MSOA in the 2021 census, and 29% in East Cockermouth & Buttermere. Owner occupation is above average, though at 71% slightly less than it was in Penrith & The Border; rates are even higher in most of the rural areas, reaching 80% in Boltons, Warnell & Solway Coast. It was about 70% in the small towns MSOAs like Keswick, Wigton and Aspatria, and lower in the pockets where there is social rented housing such as in south Maryport, the former mining village of Dearham, east Cockermouth and western Keswick, and several sections of Penrith – in its Pategill, Scaws and Castletown neighbourhoods.
These are also the more working class parts of the Cumberland section of Penrith & Solway, although Wigton & Silloth has over 30% in routine and semi-routine occupations as well as Maryport and Dearham. It may surprise some that the highest proportion of these blue collar jobs anywhere in the new seat is to be found in Penrith Central & West MSOA – 37%. Overall the new constituency is decidedly more working class than average in its socio-economic profile. Penrith and Maryport are also the only parts with more than 50% household deprivation.
There will still be strong Labour areas in the seat - in Maryport especially, but also with support in Cockermouth and Wigton, and even in the areas added from Eden and now in Westmorland & Furness there are Labour voters in parts of Penrith itself and in Alston Moor in the far East. But this is a sub-region where long term demographics appear to have been working against them in more than one way - both increasing affluence in some old Labour mining strongholds and a clear weakening of Labour loyalties amongst elements of their traditional. A very interesting seat to watch in the next decade or two, that's for sure.
This seat will clearly be much safer for the Conservatives than Workington, but much less safe than Penrith & The Border was - it looks safe on paper, but given the Conservatives' over-performance in West Cumbria in 2019 against historic norms, the notional majority of nearly 14,000 may flatter them a bit here.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 26.0% 60/575
Owner occupied 71.4% 142/575
Private rented 14.2% 472/575
Social rented 14.3% 316/575
White 98.1% 6/575
Black 0.1% 569/575
Asian 0.8% 551/575
Managerial & professional 30.7% 332/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.9% 175/575
Degree level 31.6% 298/575
No qualifications 18.8% 232/575
Students 4.0% 558/575
General Election 2019: Workington
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Mark Jenkinson 20,488 49.3 +7.6
Labour Sue Hayman 16,312 39.2 −11.9
Brexit Party David Walker 1,749 4.2
Liberal Democrats Neil Hughes 1,525 3.7 +1.0
Independent Nicky Cockburn 842 2.0
Green Jill Perry 596 1.4
Independent Roy Ivinson 87 0.2 −0.5
C Majority 4,176 10.1
Turnout 41,599 67.8 −1.4
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing +9.7 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Penrith and Solway consists of
57.6% of Workington
43.4% of Penrith & The Border
10.5% of Copeland
9.4% of Carlisle
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-west/North%20West_257_Penrith%20and%20Solway_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Result - Penrith & Solway (Rallings & Thrasher)
After the latest review of the Boundary Commission for England, which presented its final report in June 2023 and was approved by Order in Council in November of that year, the Penrith and Solway seat was created. It is in effect the successor to Workington, as it contained the majority (57.6%) of that constituency, 35,000 or voters being merged with nearly 30,000 from Penrith & The Border and another 6,000 each from Carlisle and from Copeland, in the form of Keswick and the north western lakes. This is despite the placing of the eponymous town in Whitehaven & Workington, in which Workington itself (with around 20,000 voters) is added to most of Copeland. However while technically the former Penrith and The Border has been abolished, as it forms the largest part of no successor seat, Penrith & Solway does include more of it (43.4%) than any other seat now does. Therefore this profile will include material about both the former constituencies.
Workington
A constituency of this name had existed since the 1918 general election. In the century since its main centre had always been the coastal industrial town of Workington, but the boundaries have otherwise been fairly flexible over the years - though they have generally shifted northwards over time until the seat had a significant border with Carlisle to its north east. Its other biggest towns have been Maryport and (since 1950) Cockermouth, with Aspatria another significant urban centre that was added in 1997. There are also a fair number of largeish villages in Workington's vicinity, which historically served the Cumberland coalfield - which was however shut down by the early 1980s causing quite a bit of local hardship. Workington itself was not unaffected by this and also suffered with the more recent closure of its once substantial local steel industry. Even by Cumbrian standards this area has a quite insular feel in certain parts, and this is reflected in the Workington seat being over 98.5% white even in 2021 - the highest figure for former constituencies in all of England/Wales (and just edging out neighbouring Penrith & The Border for that title). But at least some of the old mining villages have now become attractive to commuters, and the seat also contained a significant slice of genuine rural territory, plus the NW corner of the Cumbrian mountains.
Prior to 1918 the town of Workington was contained in the old Cockermouth seat, Labour stood in the last few elections before its demise but made relatively little impression on what was still a close Tory/Liberal battle. Then the seat was split into a redrawn Cockermouth/Penrith division and the new (until 1950 fairly compact) Workington seat, and given previous form it may have surprised some to see Labour win with over half the vote. And things stayed that way - Labour won by 55-45 over the Tories even in their epochal disaster year of 1931, were actually unopposed in 1935, and then won by nearly 3 to 1 a decade later. A major redrawing then saw the seat significantly expanded and taking in Cockermouth and a swathe of countryside - this made the Tories more competitive but did not seriously threaten Labour's grip on the seat - results remaining roughly in the 60%-40% range with remarkably low swings overall, until the Liberals showed up in the second 1974 GE for the first time since the original contest for this seat in 1918.
They made little impression then and Labour still won by approaching 10k, so moving the veteran MP Fred Peart (first elected in 1945) to the Lords two years later in 1976 appeared reasonable despite the government's precarious parliamentary position. However, in the byelection Tory hopeful Richard Page (who had stood in both 1974 elections, even achieving a small pro-Tory swing in the first against the national trend) pulled off a famous victory by just over a thousand votes and a 13% swing. The beaten Labour candidate then, Dale Campbell-Savours (a man of Keswick, in this seat until 2010) duly got his revenge in 1979 and indeed won fairly comfortably whilst Page soon resumed his political career, for rather longer, in Hertfordshire - Campbell-Savours afterwards consolidating his position until he had a majority of close to 20k and 40% in his final election of 1997.
However in 2001 there was an above average swing to the Tories, partly due to the foot and mouth epidemic that devastated much of Cumbria, and new MP (and former MEP) Tony Cunningham saw the Labour majority almost halved. Unlike in other Cumbrian seats, though, there were further swings to the Tories in both subsequent polls, and by 2010 (Cunningham's last outing) Workington had become semi-marginal. There were also indications of some trouble for Labour at local level in that time - both UKIP and even the semi-moribund BNP polled strongly in some local wards and prior to the 2013 county elections some veteran Labour councillors in Workington town were deselected in acrimonious circumstances, only to be easily re-elected as Independents.
So in 2015 the new Labour hopeful Sue Hayman knew she had a fight on her hands, she actually managed a tiny swing and increase in the Labour majority but could hardly have failed to notice the strong third place - with nearly 20% of the vote - for UKIP's candidate, one Mark Jenkinson. The following year, 2016, the constituency voted for Brexit by about 60-40, and the subsequent UKIP collapse made Tories confident of exploiting that come the 2017 GE. In the event Hayman was returned with over 51% - Labour's best share since 2001 - but there was still a small pro-Tory swing as the 16 point drop in UKIP's share split more in their favour, as expected. Any thoughts Labour might have seen off the threat, though, were surely dashed by results in the 2019 district council elections that were little short of disastrous in many cases - especially in Workington itself where they were reduced to just a handful of councillors (perhaps tellingly, they held up much better in more middle class Cockermouth) and then come the "Brexit election" in December 2019 an early constituency poll showed the Tories poised to grab this seat for the first time ever at a GE. The poll was not universally believed, but come the early hours of December 13 - when Mark Jenkinson (yes, the UKIP candidate four years earlier) had been duly returned by over 4k - a winning margin of 10% and a swing (the largest in Cumbria) almost as big - it became clear it had actually been almost unerringly accurate. As a SC member Hayman (now in the HoL) was one of Labour's higher profile casualties in 2019.
Penrith and The Border
This constituency existed, in its form up to and including 2019, since the 1950 general election - in that time it had usually been the largest seat by area in England and skirted the city constituency of Carlisle to take in the northernmost parts of Cumbria that (as the name suggests) borders Scotland. Since the 1983 GE it had taken in the northern part of historic Westmorland, and took a bit more of that for the 2010 GE which meant it for the first time encompassed all of the Eden district. At the same time, it shed some peripheral areas of the seat to both Carlisle and Workington.
A remarkable 99% of people here were white in 2011 - second in the whole of England – and in the 2021 census on old boundaries this figure was still 98.2%. A large percentage (72%) represented either home owners or paying a mortgage. Penrith was the largest town, but even that was mostly service and tourism related (with a traditional output from agriculture) rather than industrial. The other main towns were Appleby, the notably elevated Alston, and Wigton (the last two actually have some industry) but the vast bulk of this constituency was rural - much of it given over to farming but also containing the northern Lake District and part of the northern Pennines (including the highest point in that extensive range, Cross Fell).
The predecessor seats to Penrith & the Border - North Cumberland and Penrith and Cockermouth - actually had some Liberal successes after they were set up in 1918. The latter elected a Liberal in 1922 only for the Tories to win a year later, come 1935 the Liberals did not even stand a candidate. But in that same year they had a breakthrough in North Cumberland, and the winner then narrowly held in 1945 (helped in both cases by having no Labour opponent) Come the following election the entirety of that seat and the eastern part of P&C went into the new constituency (the area around Cockermouth being taken by Workington) Penrith and the Border then started as it meant to go on, with a comfortable Tory win by nearly 9k against the Liberals with Labour not far behind. The following election in 1951 saw the Tories go above 50% of the vote and Labour move into second place - two factors that remained in situ for a remarkably stable series of results that continued until 1979. From 1955 the sitting Tory for this by then heartland seat was William Whitelaw, who became part of the local "furniture" whilst making a name for himself in national politics, not least as Thatcher's loyal deputy after she saw him off for the Tory leadership in 1975. In his final contest in 1983, he took nearly 60% of the vote and a 15k majority - the ease of his win may have convinced the PM to move him "upstairs" to the Lords as their new leader just a matter of days after the election.
It nearly cost the Tories dear, unlike in most seats in their post-1950 dark days the Liberals had never given up here - fielding a candidate in every GE since the war and always saving their deposit even at its old 12.5% level - and in that year's contest they had moved into a comfortable second with over a quarter of the vote. The July 1983 byelection - so soon after the Tories’ historic landslide win - saw them cut the Conservative majority to barely 500 votes, and a recount was required to see their hopeful David Maclean (a Scot just like his predecessor) elected after a swing of nearly 15% to the Liberals. Any hopes this had any longer term significance were dashed in 1987, however, as Maclean took over 60% - following this up in 1992 with a Tory majority of 18k, their highest ever up to that point.
Tory dominance was only dented here even in 1997, and in 2010 Maclean handed over to yet another Scottish born Tory, Rory Stewart. In 2015, with the opposition unusually divided as the Lib Dems (second in every election since 1983) dropped to fourth, he enjoyed a majority of nearly 20k - still the record in this seat. A totally secure place to pursue his own ambitions then, which culminated in an ill fated bid for the leadership come Theresa May's exit, but as it was the main threat to him came from his "own" side as he became one of the more prominent victims of the Cummings "purge" of pro-Europeans in 2019, and at that December's election he dropped previously announced plans to stand as an Independent allowing the new Tory standard bearer Neil Hudson (yet another Scot!) to romp home with 60% and a majority of 18.5k.
At council level the Tory hegemony was not as total as it is for Westminster, even as they slowly but steadily push out the traditionally dominant Independents from the rural wards in local elections - Penrith has often elected non-Tory councillors, Labour have had a significant presence in Melvyn Bragg’s home town of Wigton (peer and one time SDP stalwart Roger Liddle winning the county council seat even in their poor year of 2017) and Alston, whilst the Lib Dems started to clean up in historic Westmorland in the south of the seat (mindful not least of the possibility of that area going south to Tim Farron's patch in boundary changes, one strongly suspects). But all that was ultimately drowned out up to and including 2019 by the deep-dyed Tory DNA of most of this constituency.
Penrith and Solway
Essentially the whole of the Workington seat from Maryport northwards and eastwards is included in Penrith & Solway, for example the towns of Aspatria, Cockermouth and Keswick. In its inland south sector, formerly in Copeland, it takes in some famed and picturesque Lake District sites including Crummock Water, Buttermere and Loweswater (and yes, Bassenthwaite Lake), the Derwent Valley and the mountains of Skiddaw and part of Helvellyn. Of course it reaches the Solway Firth at Silloth, Cardurnock and Bowness-on-Solway.
The most recent local elections here were those for the new Cumberland unitary authority in May 2022. Within Penrith & Solway, Labour were victorious in both Maryport wards, though not by the kind of massive margins they had in the late 20th century – in fact in Maryport North they held off an Independent challenge by only 30 votes, and in South by a more comfortable margin, but still with just 54% of the overall vote. Labour won three other Cumberland wards within this new seat in 2022: Dearham & Broughton just inland from Maryport, and the towns of Wigton and Keswick. The other wards were shared around. An Independent took Aspatria. The Greens won the extensive Lakeland ward of Bothel & Wharrels centred on the Derwent Valley and Bassenthwaite Lake. The Tories won Solway Coast, and the inland Thursby ward which includes Caldbeck and its fells. Finally, the Liberal Democrats won the one ward formerly in Carlisle constituency, Dalston & Burgh.
The large minority of Penrith & The Border included in the new Penrith & Solway is, of course, as the name implies, centred on the town of Penrith, with its five former wards (two after the change to the unitary authority of Westmorland & Furness). It also comprises the whole of the section of the former seat north of Penrith, from Skelton and Hesket in the west through Lazonby and Kirkoswald to Alston Moor in the north eastern corner. In the May 2022 Westmorland & Furness unitary authority elections, it was the Liberal Democrats who won both Penrith North and South. To its north west, the Conservatives won the Hesket & Lazonby ward, while to its north east Alston & Fellside was shared between an Independent and Labour.
Demographically, Penrith & Solway is midway between Workington and Penrith & The Border in most of its characteristics: it is distinctly older than average with 26% aged over 65, higher still in the Lakes: 30% in Keswick and the Derwent Valley MSOA in the 2021 census, and 29% in East Cockermouth & Buttermere. Owner occupation is above average, though at 71% slightly less than it was in Penrith & The Border; rates are even higher in most of the rural areas, reaching 80% in Boltons, Warnell & Solway Coast. It was about 70% in the small towns MSOAs like Keswick, Wigton and Aspatria, and lower in the pockets where there is social rented housing such as in south Maryport, the former mining village of Dearham, east Cockermouth and western Keswick, and several sections of Penrith – in its Pategill, Scaws and Castletown neighbourhoods.
These are also the more working class parts of the Cumberland section of Penrith & Solway, although Wigton & Silloth has over 30% in routine and semi-routine occupations as well as Maryport and Dearham. It may surprise some that the highest proportion of these blue collar jobs anywhere in the new seat is to be found in Penrith Central & West MSOA – 37%. Overall the new constituency is decidedly more working class than average in its socio-economic profile. Penrith and Maryport are also the only parts with more than 50% household deprivation.
There will still be strong Labour areas in the seat - in Maryport especially, but also with support in Cockermouth and Wigton, and even in the areas added from Eden and now in Westmorland & Furness there are Labour voters in parts of Penrith itself and in Alston Moor in the far East. But this is a sub-region where long term demographics appear to have been working against them in more than one way - both increasing affluence in some old Labour mining strongholds and a clear weakening of Labour loyalties amongst elements of their traditional. A very interesting seat to watch in the next decade or two, that's for sure.
This seat will clearly be much safer for the Conservatives than Workington, but much less safe than Penrith & The Border was - it looks safe on paper, but given the Conservatives' over-performance in West Cumbria in 2019 against historic norms, the notional majority of nearly 14,000 may flatter them a bit here.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 26.0% 60/575
Owner occupied 71.4% 142/575
Private rented 14.2% 472/575
Social rented 14.3% 316/575
White 98.1% 6/575
Black 0.1% 569/575
Asian 0.8% 551/575
Managerial & professional 30.7% 332/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.9% 175/575
Degree level 31.6% 298/575
No qualifications 18.8% 232/575
Students 4.0% 558/575
General Election 2019: Workington
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Mark Jenkinson 20,488 49.3 +7.6
Labour Sue Hayman 16,312 39.2 −11.9
Brexit Party David Walker 1,749 4.2
Liberal Democrats Neil Hughes 1,525 3.7 +1.0
Independent Nicky Cockburn 842 2.0
Green Jill Perry 596 1.4
Independent Roy Ivinson 87 0.2 −0.5
C Majority 4,176 10.1
Turnout 41,599 67.8 −1.4
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing +9.7 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Penrith and Solway consists of
57.6% of Workington
43.4% of Penrith & The Border
10.5% of Copeland
9.4% of Carlisle
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-west/North%20West_257_Penrith%20and%20Solway_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Result - Penrith & Solway (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 30576 | 54.8% |
| Lab | 16816 | 30.2% |
| LD | 4556 | 8.2% |
| Grn | 1733 | 3.1% |
| BxP | 1000 | 1.8% |
| Oths | 1097 | 2.0% |
| Majority | 13760 | 24.7% |
