Post by bungle on Jan 3, 2024 16:51:50 GMT
Wetherby and Easingwold
Wetherby and Easingwold is a new constituency created as part of the 2023 Review. Previously North Yorkshire (including the City of York) was considered as a distinct sub-unit for review purposes. However, this time North Yorkshire comprised an electorate of 620,874 with an unsatisfactory quota of 8.46 constituencies. Given the tight 5% variance operating for this review there was no way to assign North Yorkshire a whole number of constituencies. It would need to combine with another sub-unit. Helpfully a combined North and West Yorkshire created an entitlement to 30.99 constituencies which was pretty close to ideal. The question then arose - where would the boundary be crossed and how many times?
Previous North and West Yorkshire cross-boundary seats - such as Barkston Ash and Ripon - were simply a historical accident, given the parliamentary boundaries coming into operation in 1974 were designed prior to the major local government changes of the early 1970s. By 1983 these anomalies were all tidied up. The best answer to the question of where and how lay in the northeastern corner of West Yorkshire via the existing constituency of Elmet and Rothwell. The use of the name Elmet (relating to a long distant Celtic kingdom) in 1983 indicated a seat which lacked a clear and obvious focal point. It was a seat which was a sum of its parts to make the numbers work, so it was an obvious candidate for sacrifice to make the wider jigsaw fit. Elmet and Rothwell is therefore being split 4 ways, resulting in two distinct boundary crossings between North and West Yorkshire. One of these is the ward of Kippax & Methley which combines with North Yorkshire territory to its east around Selby and Sherburn-in-Elmet to create a more focused and compact Selby CC. However, the bulk of the boundary crossing involves the northern part of Elmet and Rothwell around Wetherby which is now combined with substantially rural areas that drive deep into North Yorkshire up to the foothills of the North York Moors National Park.
Overall this is an affluent seat that combines many elements of reliable Conservative-voting demographics and industry. From wealthy business types in and around the two Leeds MBC wards included here, through to prosperous and fertile farming territory across Ainsty and the Vale of York. There are even substantial brewing interests in the town of Tadcaster (a reliably Conservative industry since the days of the 1872 Licensing Act) and equine interests in and around Bramham and Wetherby. It will come as no surprise that this will be one of the safest Conservative seats in the north of England. Yet the Conservatives should be disappointed and frustrated at its creation for this is a vote sink that sucks in their support which could well be decisive in neighbouring seats. Piling up the votes here will be an act of vanity of the victorious Conservative candidate but electorally it does them harm elsewhere.
The reason for this becomes clear when one looks at the result of the 2005 General Election. The territory now included in Wetherby and Easingwold was part of the following parliamentary constituencies – Leeds North East, Elmet, Selby, Harrogate and Knaresborough, Skipton and Ripon & Vale of York. Only the latter two were safe Conservative seats: the other four were marginally held by opposing parties. These four seats were also part of the path to a narrow Conservative House of Commons majority in 1992. Although the underlying situation has changed a little since then (notably the dying out of the old Labour friendly coal mining vote in the Elmet and Rothwell constituency and Leeds NE continuing to improve its Labour friendly demographics) a more efficient distribution of Conservative votes in this general area would help them in neighbouring contests like Harrogate and Knaresborough, Selby and York Outer which are likely to be highly competitive next time.
That said, this is not a gerrymander devised by Labour or the Liberal Democrats (though I am sure they are delighted with the outcome). This seat is actually a sensible creation compared to some of the horrors unleashed as a result of cross-boundary requirements. From a visual perspective the shape of the seat looks very coherent, compared to that of its neighbour Thirsk and Malton. There was some pitchfork waving at the time it was proposed based on the areas involved having little in common and limited shared services. Lurking beneath this was also an underlying snobbish objection that this proposal was fusing ‘metropolitan’ (or dirty?) Leeds with rural areas of outstanding natural property values.
The reality is actually quite different. The two north eastern Leeds MBC wards of Harewood (electorate 15,000) and Wetherby (16,500) placed in this seat are distinct from their more urban ward neighbours in Leeds and make a great fit demographically. Together they represent nearly 45% of the new constituency. Harewood is named after Harewood House, the ancestral home of the Lascelles family, who married into the Royal Family in the 1920s. It is now a popular and thriving estate located just beyond the Leeds urban sprawl along the A61 Harrogate Road. The ward itself includes some very prosperous (“I’m Leeds made good”) villages with large private mansion sized housing and car choices that exude wealth. For example, Scarcroft is known for having the most expensive streets in the whole Leeds MBC area and villages like here and Collingham attract the Yorkshire equivalent of the “Cheshire set” (footballers, self-made businessmen etc etc). Unsurprisingly, since its creation in 2004 Harewood ward has been the safest Conservative ward on Leeds City Council; their typical share of the vote is 60-70% in local elections. Even in their awful year of 2023 the Harewood ward re-elected Conservative councillor Ryan Stephenson with nearly 60% of the vote. If the name rings a bell, Stephenson was the ‘silent’ candidate who nearly won the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election. As it is, he has dodged a hiding for nothing contest at the next General Election and can quietly continue with his local government career.
Moving north we reach the town of Wetherby (pop 12,000) which for many people is known for its convenient motorway services on trips north-south on the A1/M1, whilst for certain others the name is synonymous with a fine northern National Hunt racecourse (now mixed) which hosts the curtain raiser of the graded staying chase calendar - the Charlie Hall Chase. Wetherby was an original Great North Road town. However, its impressive medieval bridge over the River Wharf couldn’t cope with the traffic volumes and by the late 1950s the first bypass had been built. The reduction in through traffic hasn’t altered the pleasant and prosperous air to the town centre. This has been helped by a substantial growth in private housing from the 1960s onwards, no doubt aided by the improved roads. There is a lot of long standing small to medium enterprise and industry in and around Wetherby. It is less of a dormitory town as might be expected given its proximity to Leeds and York as it does lack good public transport links to both cities.
The Wetherby ward also includes the large village/small town of Boston Spa to the south east which is similar in demographics and voting behaviour to the previously mentioned villages. One notable former resident of Boston Hall is a certain Geoffrey Boycott, not exactly known for his left-wing or politically correct views. The Thorpe Arch Industrial Estate nearby also contains a vast overspill repository of the British Library which continues to develop the site as a serious destination for all serious researchers: the Reading Room should be better known! The Wetherby ward had always been a safe Conservative ward within Leeds MBC. Only in 1995 did their vote share dip below 50% - until 2022, when the Greens mounted a substantial campaign to secure 35% of the vote. In 2023 they achieved the unthinkable and actually defeated the Conservative candidate. The performance of the Greens here and elsewhere in the constituency suggests that they can achieve a decent showing in the forthcoming parliamentary election, but it is safe to conclude that the Conservatives will still be ahead in Wetherby when voting is on national issues.
The North Yorkshire elements of this seat are donated from a range of constituencies. From Selby and Ainsty comes the Ainsty part. This was subject to much interest in the recent parliamentary by-election when journalists and politicians frequently asked ‘where or what on earth is Ainsty’? It is the name of an old wapentake for this rural area directly west and south west of York. Historically it was bounded by three rivers: the Nidd to the north; the Ouse to the east and the Wharfe to the south. As might be suggested by such fluvial largesse this is an area of floodplain that has been drained to create high quality flat farmland. The largest town here is Tadcaster (pop 6,500) which is home of both the John and Samuel Smith’s breweries. The town also contains a Georgian bridge over the River Wharfe which spectacularly collapsed in 2015, leaving the town cut in two for over a year. As might be expected, this is Conservative territory, especially in the rural villages surrounding Tadcaster such as Appleton Roebuck and Church Fenton (52% Conservative in 2022). Tadcaster does elect independents but generally leans right at national contests. Beyond Ainsty the constituency also includes territory between Wetherby and Harrogate. The villages here like Spofforth and Kirkby Overblow balance their rural charm with the provision of good quality affluent residences for professional types. Again, this is typical Tory territory (54% in the Spofforth division in 2022). Most of this area and the northern part of Ainsty were in the old safe Tory Vale of York CC from 1997-2010, Harrogate CC 1983-97and before that Barkston Ash CC, so it is something of a novelty for them to have to endure being represented by a Labour MP for a year or so. Normal service will resume at the next election. However, the removal of this Ainsty territory and Tadcaster from the rest of Selby (plus other boundary changes) makes Selby CC a juicy prospect for Labour at the next election, especially with a by-election bounce to assist.
Heading further north, the landscape and demographics remain remarkably similar. Another small town has been donated to the constituency – Boroughbridge (pop 3,500) which arrives from Harrogate and Knaresborough CC. Boroughbridge is the next Great North Road town heading north from Wetherby. It has Roman origins and remains prosperous to this day. Politically it has provided a strong Conservative vote at national level, as does its hinterland around Bishop Monkton to the north (which arrives here from Skipton and Ripon CC) and villages to the south like Marton-cum-Grafton (which is another donation from Harrogate and Knaresborough CC). These ex-Harrogate voters bundled in here will be sorely missed by the Conservatives, now that the Liberal Democrats have recovered their competitive edge in Harrogate and Knaresborough post-coalition. To the south of Boroughbridge are more rural communities grouped into the Ouseburn division which has recently seen some spectacular Green success in local elections (70% in 2022), although prior to this it was always reliably Tory. This plus Wetherby provides the Greens with a bridgehead for an active campaign here.
The remaining 14,000 electors come from Thirsk and Malton CC where they have been included since 2010. Along with Boroughbridge and Ouseburn, these former Hambleton district wards were all part of the short lived Vale of York CC from 1997-2010 so there is some recent precedent to draw these communities together at this northern end of the seat. These wards are all situated north of York connected by the A19 route between York and Thirsk. Again, agricultural interests dominate with many dispersed villages in the flat plains east of the Ouse. The largest settlement is the now eponymous small town of Easingwold (pop 5,000). Again, this is a prosperous and attractive town with little in the way of social problems or deprivation. The only note of drama is the Hawkhills Government Emergency Planning College which is based just outside the town. The politics in all these former Hambleton wards is small ‘c’ Conservative, so there was some considerable agitation when the Conservative government proposed housing asylum seekers in an old RAF base at Linton-on-Ouse. With the threat averted the Conservatives easily secured all the North Yorkshire electoral divisions in this part of the seat in 2022. There is Tory royalty to be found here – Sutton Park in the village of Sutton-on-the Forest is home to the Sheffield family – Sir Reginald is an active Tory supporter and former councillor but is more commonly known as father to Samantha Cameron. As the seat skirts the edge of the Howardian Hills we shift from large arable plains to more varied landscapes where livestock and shooting interests are more common. The northern tip of this new seat can be found at the notable landmark of the Kilburn White Horse which is on the edge of Sutton Bank, gateway to the North York Moors.
As nearly half of the territory here came from the old Elmet and Rothwell constituency it was no surprise that its sitting MP Alec Shelbrooke declared his interest here. There was some speculation that Kevin Hollinrake – MP for Thirsk and Malton - would try for selection here. His was always a lesser claim but his home and stamping ground are in and around Easingwold (he is the former owner of Crayke Castle, which now moves into this seat). However, he sensibly opted to cede to Shelbrooke’s claim and will stand again in Thirsk and Malton. Alec Shelbrooke was duly adopted as Conservative candidate here and, being under 50, could be a presence here for decades to come should he so choose, so long as he retains the support of party members. By profession he was a project administrator in whilst his political career began as a councillor for the Harewood ward before being elected to the House of Commons in 2010. He was a strong support of Liz Truss and was a Minister of State for Defence in her administration. He was duly awarded a KBE in her Resignation Honours list. No other candidates have declared at the time of writing.
