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Post by robbienicoll on Jan 2, 2024 20:31:36 GMT
There are currently 11 by-elections to be held during January.
- 4 by-elections on 11 January
- 6 on 18 January
- 1 on 25 January
4 by-elections are for London Borough councils, all last contested in 2022
2 are for district councils, both last contested in 2023
2 are for metropolitan borough councils, both last contested in 2023
2 are for unitary authorities, one last contested in 2023 and the other in 2019
1 is for a Scottish council which was last contested in a 2023 by-election with the last full election in 2022
Labour defend 5 seats, 4 following a resignation and 1 disqualification upon being elected as mayor
Conservatives defend 3 seats, 2 following the death of the previous councillor and 1 a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 3 seats, 2 following the death of the previous councillor and 1 a resignation
With all SOPNs having been published, there is a full slate of 11 candidates for Labour and the Liberal Democrats, 10 Conservatives and 7 Greens along with 1 apiece for the SNP, Reform UK, UKIP, TUSC, Scottish Family Party and Democratic Liberation Party together with 6 Independents and 1 No Description contesting 3 elections – a total of 53 candidates for 11 seats.
Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election.
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Post by greenman on Jan 7, 2024 16:26:22 GMT
I have decided not to continue participating in the competition. I have not lived in England since November 1970, having been signed up to the Wanstead and Woodford Conservative Association by Winston Churchill in 1963. Prior to 2015 I only voted once in the UK in Cirencester & Tewkesbury in 1970 for the Liberal as the Labour candidate did not live in the seat. In 2015 I worked on Caroline Lucas's first re-election campaign in Brighton-Pavillion and have been an overseas voter ever since. From 2005 to 2014 I served as the Area D Director in the Regional District Central Kootenay of south east British Columbia, having previously taught political science from September 1989 to April 2005.
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Post by kevinf on Jan 9, 2024 18:38:22 GMT
Thursday 11 January
Right, let’s get the ball rolling. Putting the ‘pre’ into predict.
Brighton and Hove
Lab 58, Green 18.5, Con 16, LD 6, Tusc 1, Ind 0.3, DLP 0.2
Dorset
Lab 40, Con 35, LD 25
Salford
Lab 45, LD 44, Green 11
Tendring (there should be a special prize for this one!)
Ind Goldman 25, Lab 20, Ind Mayzes 16, Con 15, Ind Chittock 9, ND Holland 6, Reform 4.5, LD 2.5, Ukip 1.5, Ind Bayford 0.5
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 9, 2024 20:50:34 GMT
Brighton: Lab 60.3; Con 15.1; Grn 11.5; LD 8.2; Gillespie 2.9; TUSC 1.5; DLP 0.5
Dorset: Lab 34.1; LD 33.5; Con 32.4
Salford: Lab 46.8; LD 44.0; Grn 9.2
Tendring (WTF): Lab 23.7; Con 20.2; Goldman 15.3; Mayzes 7.6; Chittock 7.1; Holland 6.5; Bayford 6.3; UKIP 5.7; RefUK 4.8; LD 2.8
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Jan 10, 2024 14:17:07 GMT
BRIGHTON & HOVE, S.Portslade : Lab 55 Con 20 Green 11 LD 6 Ind 4 TUSC 3 DLP 1
DORSET, Littlemoor & Preston : Lab 43 C 33 LD 24
SALFORD, Quays : Lab 48 LD 37 Green 15
TENDRING, Bluehouse : C 23 Lab 21 Ind Goldman 20 Ind Mayzes 10 RefUK 9 Ind (ND) Holland 5 Ind Chittock 4 Ind Bayford 3 UKIP 3 LD 2
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jan 10, 2024 15:16:58 GMT
Brighton: Lab 57.3 Grn 16.4 LD 12.3 Con 8.2 Ind 4.1 TUSC 1.3 DLP 0.4
Dorset: LD 40 Con 32 Lab 28
Salford: LD 46 Lab 38 Grn 16
Tendring:
Bayford 50 7.1
Labour 130 18.6
Chittock 40 5.7
Goldman 90 12.9
Holland 30 4.3
Reform 80 11.4
Mayzes 70 10.0
UKIP 60 8.6
Conservative 120 17.1
LD 30 4.3
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jan 10, 2024 15:33:01 GMT
Actually my prediction is that in Tendring, some of the candidates will get tiny percentages (perhaps less than 1%j and some will get substantial (perhaps more than 30%) but I just don’t know which. Presumably the voters are equally puzzled about who is likely to have a chance of winning, but their ignorance will be quickly cleared up when they start getting leaflets.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 10, 2024 15:41:51 GMT
The Tendring contest is black belt level prediction competitioning. There is scope for some of us to get more faults than quite a few of the candidates get votes.
We could have a prediction comp for whether the winner will get more or less than 25%? Or 20%?
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 10, 2024 21:59:35 GMT
Brighton and Hove. South Portslade. Lab 58 Con 13 Green 12 LD 8 Ind 5 TUSC 2 DLP 2
Dorset. Littlemoor and Preston LD 37 Con 34 Lab 29
Salford, Quays. Lab 47 LD 43 Green 10
Tendring. Bluehouse. Goldman 21 Lab 20 Con 15 Bayford 14 Mayzes 8 Holland 7 RefUK 6 Chittock 4 UKIP 3 LD 2
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batman
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Post by batman on Jan 10, 2024 22:09:51 GMT
Brighton: Lab 57.3 Grn 16.4 LD 12.3 LD 8.2 Ind 4.1 TUSC 1.3 DLP 0.4 Dorset: LD 40 Con 32 Lab 28 Salford: LD 46 Lab 38 Grn 16 Tendring: Bayford 50 7.1 Labour 130 18.6 Chittock 40 5.7 Goldman 90 12.9 Holland 30 4.3 Reform 80 11.4 Mayzes 70 10.0 UKIP 60 8.6 Conservative 120 17.1 LD 30 4.3 John, you have omitted the Conservative candidate in Brighton & Hove. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Jan 10, 2024 22:14:13 GMT
Brighton and Hove. South Portslade. Lab 64 Con 10 Green 15 LD 6 Ind 2 TUSC 1.5 DLP 1.5
Dorset. Littlemoor and Preston LD 35 Con 34 Lab 31
Salford, Quays. Lab 46 LD 44 Green 10
Tendring. Bluehouse. Goldman 17 Lab 28 Con 22 Bayford 6 Mayzes 7 Holland 5 RefUK 4 Chittock 4 UKIP 4 LD 3
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jan 10, 2024 22:43:15 GMT
Brighton: Lab 57.3 Grn 16.4 LD 12.3 LD 8.2 Ind 4.1 TUSC 1.3 DLP 0.4 John, you have omitted the Conservative candidate in Brighton & Hove. Oops! Fixed. I didn’t omit it but I labelled wrongly. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 10, 2024 23:24:16 GMT
The Tendring contest is black belt level prediction competitioning. There is scope for some of us to get more faults than quite a few of the candidates get votes. We could have a prediction comp for whether the winner will get more or less than 25%? Or 20%? My initial prediction had a winning share somewhere around 17.5%, but then I decided that was probably a wee bit low... that would surely be some kind of record... |
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Post by corradino on Jan 10, 2024 23:50:46 GMT
Brighton & Hove, South Portslade: Lab 52, Green 19, LD 11, Con 11, Ind 5, TUSC 1, DLP 1.
Dorset, Littlemoor & Preston: Lab 38, LD 37, Con 25.
Salford, Quays: Lab 45, LD 39, Green 16.
Tendring, Bluehouse: Lab 22, Con 19, Goldman 18, Bayford 14, Reform 8, Mayzes 8, Chittock 4, Holland 3, UKIP 2, LD 2.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jan 11, 2024 0:11:51 GMT
The Tendring contest is black belt level prediction competitioning. There is scope for some of us to get more faults than quite a few of the candidates get votes. We could have a prediction comp for whether the winner will get more or less than 25%? Or 20%? My initial prediction had a winning share somewhere around 17.5%, but then I decided that was probably a wee bit low... that would surely be some kind of record... I think it will be a fairly ordinary result, with 3 or 4 candidates getting substantial proportions of the votes, and about 4 or 5 candidates getting tiny percentages. We have little to go on from a list or a SOPN in which each candidate is represented equally, but the candidates themselves are probably known fairly widely among enough people to be able to predominate in getting the votes (or being invisible in not). I reckon it would be much easier to predict the result if we could predict the percentages , but without specifying which percentage goes to which candidate, e.g. 39 25 13 8 6 4 3 1.3 0.5 0.2 |
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 11, 2024 0:24:28 GMT
BRIGHTON & HOVE, S.Portslade : Lab 61, Con 14, Green 11, LD 8, Ind 4, TUSC 1, DLP 1
DORSET, Littlemoor & Preston : LD 37, Lab 32, C 31
SALFORD, Quays : LD 44, Lab 43, Green 13
TENDRING, Bluehouse : Lab 23, Goldman 21, Con 19, Mayzes 9, Bayford 9, ReformUK 8, Holland 4, Chittock 3, LD 2, UKIP 2
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peterl
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Post by peterl on Jan 11, 2024 1:18:58 GMT
BRIGHTON & HOVE, S.Portslade : Lab 63, Green 15, Con 10, LD 7, Ind 3, TUSC 1, DLP 1
DORSET, Littlemoor & Preston : LD 39, Lab 34, C 27
SALFORD, Quays : LD 48, Lab 40, Green 12
TENDRING, Bluehouse : Lab 27, Goldman 22, Con 15, Mayzes 12, Bayford 8, ReformUK 7, Holland 3, Chittock 3, LD 2, UKIP 1
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carolus
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Post by carolus on Jan 11, 2024 4:12:18 GMT
Brighton & Hove, South Portslade.
Lab 59
Green 19
Con 10
LD 6
Ind 4
TUSC 1
DLP 1
Dorset, Littlemoor & Preston.
LD 40
Con 35
Lab 25
Salford, Quays.
Lab 55
LD 35
Green 10
Tendring, Bluehouse.
Lab 27
Ind (Goldman) 21
Con 20
LD 10
Ind (Mayzes) 6
Reform UK 5
Ind (Chittock) 4
No Desc 3
UKIP 2
Ind (Bayford) 2
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Post by rightleaning on Jan 11, 2024 5:36:23 GMT
Brighton and Hove. South Portslade. Lab 61, Green 16, Con 13, LD 6, Ind 2 TUSC 1 DLP 1
Dorset. Littlemoor and Preston Con 37, LD 35, Lab 28
Salford, Quays. Lab 48, LD 40, Green 12
Tendring. Bluehouse. Goldman 27, Lab 24, Con 20, RefUK 6, LD 5, Bayford 5, Mayzes 4, Holland 4, UKIP 3, Chittock 2
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Post by iainbhx on Jan 11, 2024 6:43:58 GMT
Brighton and Hove UA, South Portslade: Lab 63, Grn 14, Con 12, LDm 5, Ind 3 TUSC 2 DLP 1
Dorset UA, Littlemoor & Preston: Con 38 Lab 35 LDm 27
Salford MBC, Quays: Lab 45 LDm 40 Grn 15
Tendring DC, Bluehouse : Ind Goldman 22.5, Con 18.5, Lab 17.5, Ind Mayzes 9.5, Ref UK 7.5, ND Holland 7, UKIP 6. LDm 5.5, Ind Bayford 3.5, Ind Chittock 2.5
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