Corby & East Northamptonshire
Jan 1, 2024 10:27:00 GMT
Pete Whitehead, Robert Waller, and 1 more like this
Post by John Chanin on Jan 1, 2024 10:27:00 GMT
This is based on the original by European Lefty with as usual boundary changes and 2021 census data added, an enhanced and reorganized physical description of its parts, and the removal of some repetition.
Corby was a candidate for being the worst named constituency in the country. Only just over half of the electorate is in the former borough, and under half is in the town itself. Furthermore, Corby sits right at the north-western edge of the constituency, which also contains the towns of Raunds, Oundle, and Thrapston, as well as a large expanse of countryside between the four towns. The seat sits at the eastern edge of Northamptonshire, in an area that is quite hard to place regionally. Although it is officially in the East Midlands, this is something of a misplacement. Like neighbouring Cambridgeshire, it has some similarities to the South East, and is not far off being East Anglian, although can’t really be considered as part of either region. This constituency’s border with Grantham & Stamford doubles as the shortest county border in England (between Northamptonshire and Lincolnshire) at just 18 metres long. In terms of the naming the Boundary Commission has finally added East Northamptonshire to the name, ironically at just the time that the eponymous district has been abolished and incorporated in the new unitary of North Northamptonshire. The old seat was seriously oversized, due mainly to expansion in the East Northamptonshire section, and the Boundary Commission has cut it down by removing the town of Irthlingborough (but not the rest of the ward) to the Wellingborough seat, and excising two small rural sections around Corby transferred to Kettering. But this remains one of the most polarized seats in the country.
Corby is a new town with a population of 60,000. There is a small core known as Corby Old Village on the east of the town by the railway station. But it experienced a massive population boom centred around the steel working industry in the 1930s (although ironworking had existed in the area since the Roman era). After being designated a new town in 1950, the town experienced its second wave of expansion, with most of the new inhabitants coming from Scotland to work in the steel works. This has had a lasting impact on the town, to the extent that its local dialect is often said to resemble Glaswegian English. The rest of the story is a familiar one in the second half of the twentieth century. The steelworks became unprofitable and declined, causing the borough’s unemployment rate to reach 30% by the mid-1980s, although there is still a vestigial presence by Tata Steel who have inherited the former British Steel works, alongside the industrial estates to the east of the town. Most of Corby is uniformly and solidly working class, with still a high proportion of social housing and owner-occupation only a little over 50%. Less than 20% have degrees, and a massive 50% are classified as doing routine or semi-routine jobs. Despite the desertion of many people in areas like this, the three northern wards of the town remain solidly Labour. The south of the town is a little different, with more private housing and much more average demographically, although it would be stretching a point to call it middle-class, and indeed it also votes Labour, though more marginally, with the Liberal Democrats winning the county seat in 2017, although Labour took all 3 seats at the first elections for the unitary in 2021. There is a minimal ethnic minority presence (unless you count the Scots).
East Northamptonshire, lying in the flood plain of the river Nene is a different world. There are three small market towns here, nestling in expansive flat agricultural countryside. Oundle beside the Nene to the north is a very handsome stone built market town with a population of 6,000, best known for its private school. Thrapston further south on the river beside the A14 has a population of 7,000 and was the headquarters of the old East Northamptonshire district, and is rather more nondescript. Raunds is a lttle larger, with a population of 9,000, and some industrial history based around the usual Northamptonshire industry of footwear. Nearby Stanwick Lakes is a large park and bird sanctuary built on the old quarries that littered the area, which is underlain by Jurassic limestone. There aren’t many Labour votes in the towns, and even fewer in the rural areas that surround them, including the outlying parts of the old Corby borough, that extends up to the border with Rutland. These wards are 40% managerial, but not with high educational qualifications, like many rural areas, and a surprisingly high level of renting, both council and private. The whole area is solidly Conservative with a scattering of minority Labour votes in Raunds, Thrapston, and Weldon, east of Corby, where there is a huge new housing estate.
Perhaps the most important piece of history in this constituency is at Fotheringhay Castle in the east of the constituency. It was here that Mary, Queen of Scots spent her final night before being beheaded in the castle’s great hall, significantly dressed in the Catholic church’s liturgical colours of martyrdom. Five hundred years on, the castle lies in ruins, the jury is still out on Mary’s actual guilt and the letters which condemned her no longer exist, although perhaps this just adds to the intrigue around the incident.
One of the things that really separates Northamptonshire as a county from the others in its official region of the East Midlands is the political behaviour of seats like this. As post-industrial seats all across Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, the Potteries and the West Midlands metropolitan area have swung hard to the right over recent years, this seat as well as the two Northampton seats have seen much smaller shifts. So why has this seat behaved in such a way? One factor is the extent to which this can be considered a post-industrial seat. Another potential cause is the town’s Scottish heritage - Scotland and especially the Central Belt have long been considered more left-wing than the country at large, and here of course there is no SNP candidate to vote for. Furthermore, Thrapston in particular has demographics that are becoming more friendly to Labour, although the other two towns together wouldn’t be enough to counteract major losses in Corby and the shift, if there is any, is likely to be rather small. The seat’s labour market profile is oriented towards low-paid and traditionally working-class jobs, although there isn’t a particularly large public sector to boost Labour’s support. This seat is almost exactly median in deprivation for England. Whatever the reason, Labour have remained stronger here than in many similar areas, with the swing required to regain it making it an easier target than formerly safe seats such as Bassetlaw, Mansfield, and North East Derbyshire. The popular conception has always been that Labour-voting Corby balances Tory-voting East Northants with the seat being won by turnout levels and better dominance of your safe areas. Although this is not completely incorrect, it should be noted that there are some very middle-class areas with strong Tory votes in and around Corby, and some deprived areas of Raunds that have not insignificant Labour votes. This is a divided constituency containing areas in both the most and least deprived decile in England. The boundary changes will slightly improve matters for Labour as Corby town now has a larger percentage of the seat.
Its political history has been relatively short. The seat was created in 1983, voting Conservative by just 6.5%. Phil Hope gained the seat for Labour on an 11.5% swing in 1997 and lost in 2010 to Conservative Louise Bagshawe. Labour regained it in the 2012 by-election caused by her resignation but lost it in 2015 and Tom Pursglove has kept it for the Conservatives ever since currently enjoying a 10,000 majority. Pursglove was the youngest MP when first elected at 26, and his limited work experience was in a party role. This means that, aside from the period between 2012 and 2015, the seat has been held by the party of government for its entire existence, and this is a seat that both sides will need to win a majority.
Census data: Owner-occupied 65% (304/575 in England & Wales), private rented 18% (290th), social rented 16% (232nd).
: White 93%(236th), Black 2%(204th), South Asian 1%(383rd), Mixed 2%(371st), Other 2%(387th)
: Managerial & professional 33% (433rd), Routine & Semi-routine 36% (87th)
: Degree level 27%(438th), Minimal qualifications 32%(140th)
: Students 5% (342nd), Over 65- 17% (366th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 100% from Corby
89% of the old seat is in the new one, with 7% going to Wellingborough, and 4% to Kettering
Corby was a candidate for being the worst named constituency in the country. Only just over half of the electorate is in the former borough, and under half is in the town itself. Furthermore, Corby sits right at the north-western edge of the constituency, which also contains the towns of Raunds, Oundle, and Thrapston, as well as a large expanse of countryside between the four towns. The seat sits at the eastern edge of Northamptonshire, in an area that is quite hard to place regionally. Although it is officially in the East Midlands, this is something of a misplacement. Like neighbouring Cambridgeshire, it has some similarities to the South East, and is not far off being East Anglian, although can’t really be considered as part of either region. This constituency’s border with Grantham & Stamford doubles as the shortest county border in England (between Northamptonshire and Lincolnshire) at just 18 metres long. In terms of the naming the Boundary Commission has finally added East Northamptonshire to the name, ironically at just the time that the eponymous district has been abolished and incorporated in the new unitary of North Northamptonshire. The old seat was seriously oversized, due mainly to expansion in the East Northamptonshire section, and the Boundary Commission has cut it down by removing the town of Irthlingborough (but not the rest of the ward) to the Wellingborough seat, and excising two small rural sections around Corby transferred to Kettering. But this remains one of the most polarized seats in the country.
Corby is a new town with a population of 60,000. There is a small core known as Corby Old Village on the east of the town by the railway station. But it experienced a massive population boom centred around the steel working industry in the 1930s (although ironworking had existed in the area since the Roman era). After being designated a new town in 1950, the town experienced its second wave of expansion, with most of the new inhabitants coming from Scotland to work in the steel works. This has had a lasting impact on the town, to the extent that its local dialect is often said to resemble Glaswegian English. The rest of the story is a familiar one in the second half of the twentieth century. The steelworks became unprofitable and declined, causing the borough’s unemployment rate to reach 30% by the mid-1980s, although there is still a vestigial presence by Tata Steel who have inherited the former British Steel works, alongside the industrial estates to the east of the town. Most of Corby is uniformly and solidly working class, with still a high proportion of social housing and owner-occupation only a little over 50%. Less than 20% have degrees, and a massive 50% are classified as doing routine or semi-routine jobs. Despite the desertion of many people in areas like this, the three northern wards of the town remain solidly Labour. The south of the town is a little different, with more private housing and much more average demographically, although it would be stretching a point to call it middle-class, and indeed it also votes Labour, though more marginally, with the Liberal Democrats winning the county seat in 2017, although Labour took all 3 seats at the first elections for the unitary in 2021. There is a minimal ethnic minority presence (unless you count the Scots).
East Northamptonshire, lying in the flood plain of the river Nene is a different world. There are three small market towns here, nestling in expansive flat agricultural countryside. Oundle beside the Nene to the north is a very handsome stone built market town with a population of 6,000, best known for its private school. Thrapston further south on the river beside the A14 has a population of 7,000 and was the headquarters of the old East Northamptonshire district, and is rather more nondescript. Raunds is a lttle larger, with a population of 9,000, and some industrial history based around the usual Northamptonshire industry of footwear. Nearby Stanwick Lakes is a large park and bird sanctuary built on the old quarries that littered the area, which is underlain by Jurassic limestone. There aren’t many Labour votes in the towns, and even fewer in the rural areas that surround them, including the outlying parts of the old Corby borough, that extends up to the border with Rutland. These wards are 40% managerial, but not with high educational qualifications, like many rural areas, and a surprisingly high level of renting, both council and private. The whole area is solidly Conservative with a scattering of minority Labour votes in Raunds, Thrapston, and Weldon, east of Corby, where there is a huge new housing estate.
Perhaps the most important piece of history in this constituency is at Fotheringhay Castle in the east of the constituency. It was here that Mary, Queen of Scots spent her final night before being beheaded in the castle’s great hall, significantly dressed in the Catholic church’s liturgical colours of martyrdom. Five hundred years on, the castle lies in ruins, the jury is still out on Mary’s actual guilt and the letters which condemned her no longer exist, although perhaps this just adds to the intrigue around the incident.
One of the things that really separates Northamptonshire as a county from the others in its official region of the East Midlands is the political behaviour of seats like this. As post-industrial seats all across Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, the Potteries and the West Midlands metropolitan area have swung hard to the right over recent years, this seat as well as the two Northampton seats have seen much smaller shifts. So why has this seat behaved in such a way? One factor is the extent to which this can be considered a post-industrial seat. Another potential cause is the town’s Scottish heritage - Scotland and especially the Central Belt have long been considered more left-wing than the country at large, and here of course there is no SNP candidate to vote for. Furthermore, Thrapston in particular has demographics that are becoming more friendly to Labour, although the other two towns together wouldn’t be enough to counteract major losses in Corby and the shift, if there is any, is likely to be rather small. The seat’s labour market profile is oriented towards low-paid and traditionally working-class jobs, although there isn’t a particularly large public sector to boost Labour’s support. This seat is almost exactly median in deprivation for England. Whatever the reason, Labour have remained stronger here than in many similar areas, with the swing required to regain it making it an easier target than formerly safe seats such as Bassetlaw, Mansfield, and North East Derbyshire. The popular conception has always been that Labour-voting Corby balances Tory-voting East Northants with the seat being won by turnout levels and better dominance of your safe areas. Although this is not completely incorrect, it should be noted that there are some very middle-class areas with strong Tory votes in and around Corby, and some deprived areas of Raunds that have not insignificant Labour votes. This is a divided constituency containing areas in both the most and least deprived decile in England. The boundary changes will slightly improve matters for Labour as Corby town now has a larger percentage of the seat.
Its political history has been relatively short. The seat was created in 1983, voting Conservative by just 6.5%. Phil Hope gained the seat for Labour on an 11.5% swing in 1997 and lost in 2010 to Conservative Louise Bagshawe. Labour regained it in the 2012 by-election caused by her resignation but lost it in 2015 and Tom Pursglove has kept it for the Conservatives ever since currently enjoying a 10,000 majority. Pursglove was the youngest MP when first elected at 26, and his limited work experience was in a party role. This means that, aside from the period between 2012 and 2015, the seat has been held by the party of government for its entire existence, and this is a seat that both sides will need to win a majority.
Census data: Owner-occupied 65% (304/575 in England & Wales), private rented 18% (290th), social rented 16% (232nd).
: White 93%(236th), Black 2%(204th), South Asian 1%(383rd), Mixed 2%(371st), Other 2%(387th)
: Managerial & professional 33% (433rd), Routine & Semi-routine 36% (87th)
: Degree level 27%(438th), Minimal qualifications 32%(140th)
: Students 5% (342nd), Over 65- 17% (366th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 100% from Corby
89% of the old seat is in the new one, with 7% going to Wellingborough, and 4% to Kettering
2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | |
Conservative | 29,534 | 49.2 | 33,410 | 55.2 | 29,443 | 54.6 |
Labour | 26,844 | 44.7 | 23,142 | 38.3 | 20,767 | 38.5 |
Liberal Democrat | 1,545 | 2.6 | 3,932 | 6.5 | 3,680 | 6.8 |
UKIP | 1,495 | 2.5 | ||||
Green | 579 | 1.0 | ||||
| Majority | 2,690 | 4.5 | 10,268 | 17.0 | 8,676 | 16.1 |
