Post by froome on Dec 28, 2023 13:48:15 GMT
(I have now completed this profile, which includes some slight changes to my original draft this morning. I have borrowed heavily from Foggy's description of the present constituency, but have altered and amended it where I feel that is appropriate, and haven't included the list of famous residents)
Bath is a city famous for its Roman remains, especially the many baths that gave it its Roman name of Aquae Sulis, and for its Georgian architecture, which still makes up much of the housing just outside of the city centre, especially, but not only, on its northern side. These include Royal Crescent and The Circle, and a number of other crescents that sit on its hillsides with extensive views. The city sits astride a number of steep sided hills on both sides of the river Avon, at the southern tip of the Cotswolds. All of this led to the city being granted UNESCO world heritage status, while most of the countryside around the city has Green Belt protection.
Right in its centre is its abbey, Bath being the shared (with Wells) seat of a Church of England diocese. Before the Georgian renaissance, the city was actually fairly run down, but by the 18th century it had become one of Britain's most fashionable resorts, centred on the supposed health giving properties of its baths. The social life that developed from this was famously mocked by Charles Dickens in his Pickwick Papers. It is still a major tourist destination, but its economy is now more diverse, though relying heavily on being a regional retail centre and on public services.
Bath has been represented at Parliament since 1295, and following the 1832 Reform Act, it continued to send 2 MPs to Parliament. However, after the franchise was extended in 1918, it was reduced to being a single member constituency.
Before 1918, it was usually a marginal seat, often electing one Tory and one Whig representative. These representatives normally came from local noble families, including the Thynnes, whose seat is Longleat House, and who take the name of Lord Bath. In 1766 Pitt the Elder became Prime Minister for 5 days while representing Bath as an MP before he was elevated to the Lords. However, there is an underlying nonconformism in the city which has been reflected in its politics, and on two occasions the Radical activist John Arthur Roebuck was elected as one of its MPs.
In the 20th and 21st centuries, the constituency boundaries have alternated between being tightly drawn around the city and extending out to include its eastern hinterland. These alterations have usually made little difference to its overall political representation, except perhaps to slightly strengthen the Conservative vote when the rural hinterland was included. In recent times, the constituency only included the city from 1983 to 1997 and again from 2010 to the present day, while between 1997 and 2010, the constituency also included the eastern suburbs and villages as far as the Wiltshire border.
The result of the city's UNESCO heritage and Green Belt have meant that, unlike almost all other comparable sized towns, Bath has not extended out into its surrounding countryside, apart from some small developments on its edge to its south. Instead, recent development of the city has mostly come about by developing those areas of the city that used to be industrial, and most recently by development of lands that were occupied by the Ministry of Defence for many of its offices. However, while the city's population has grown, it has therefore been much less than in other similar towns, and thus the present constituency size fell just below the minimum electorate population for the new constituencies.
The obvious way to add to its electorate was to include its eastern hinterland again, and this is indeed what has happened. However, it should also be noted that the wards in B&NES were altered in 2019, and one of the city wards (Newbridge) was extended out to include some small villages outside of the city boundary to its north-west. So the new constituency includes all of the city's current 15 wards (Bathwick, Combe Down, Kingsmead, Lambridge, Lansdown, Moorlands, Newbridge, Odd Down, Oldfield Park, Southdown, Twerton, Walcot, Westmoreland, Weston and Widcombe & Lyncombe) plus one ward from outside of the city, Bathavon North. This ward includes the suburban areas of Batheaston and Bathampton, the large village of Bathford, which is just east of Batheaston and partly merges into it, and also a number of smaller villages, mostly to the north of Bath up to its borders with Wiltshire and South Gloucestershire. Thus, the constituency now includes villages from Kelston in the north-west right round to Claverton to its east, and the constituency electorate sits right in the middle of the accepted range, at 73,241.
Not surprisingly, it is an affluent constituency, with high levels of house ownership and residents with degrees. However, it does have some large areas with social deprivation, especially in the south-west and inner eastern parts of the city. Most notable though is that it has a very high younger population (17th highest of those in the 18-35 age), due largely to having two universities, Bath and Bath Spa. Bath University sits right on the south-eastern edge of the city and constituency, while Bath Spa University lies outside the constituency to its west, at Newton St Loe, but with most of its students resident in the city.
Politically, the Conservatives have been the dominant party throughout most of the 20th century, though the constituency could only have ever been considered a safe seat for them during the inter war years. Labour were the second party at all elections from 1945 to 1970, and came less than 1,000 votes behind in 1966, and were never too far back in other years. During this period, the Liberal vote was generally well back in third, mostly around one third to one half of the Labour vote, but in February 1974, the Liberals took second place from Labour by just over 1,000 votes and just over 5,000 votes behind the Conservatives (similar to the previous Labour vote). The Liberals narrowed the Conservative majority in the October 1974 election, but fell back a long way in 1979, when Margaret Thatcher became Prime Minister, with Chris Patten becoming Bath's MP. The Liberals had managed to hold onto second place, and with the formation of the SDP and their alliance with the Liberal Party, in 1983 the Liberals agreed to the SDP candidate standing here, Malcolm Dean. He reduced the Conservative majority back to 5,000 and then to just 1,400 in 1987.
In 1992, Chris Patten was credited with coordinating the Conservative manifesto, and the Conservatives swept to power nationally. However, with the formation of the Liberal Democratic Party and a new candidate, Don Foster, their candidate, overturned the Conservative majority here and won the seat with a majority of 3,768. That majority increased to over 9,000 in 1997 and almost 10,000 in 2001, when the Conservative vote fell to its lowest in the constituency since 1918. The 1992 election was also notable for the emergence of Alan Sked as the Anti-Federalist League candidate, who received 117 votes. The next year he founded UKIP.
In 2005 the Liberal Democrat majority fell to just 4,500, partly due to a rise in the Conservative vote, with the Green Party candidate receiving enough votes to hold their deposit. However, in 2010, Don Foster's majority grew to their largest yet, at nearly 12,000, and the seat appeared to have become safe for the Liberal Democrats. However, their fortunes changed when they joined into a coalition with the Conservatives in government, and along with local unpopularity, the Conservatives had a shock gain in 2015, defeating the Liberal Democrats by nearly 4,000 votes, with the Labour vote increasing and both the Green Party and UKIP receiving easily their best ever votes in the constituency.
Bath is thought to have voted overwhelmingly Remain in the 2016 referendum, well above the B&NES vote of 57.9%. This certainly partly explains why in 2017, despite replacing their selected candidate at the last moment with the little known Wera Hobhouse, the Liberal Democrats took the seat back with ease with a majority of over 5,500. In 2019 this increased to well over 12,000, making the seat once again safe for them, partly helped by the Green Party not standing a candidate here as part of a national agreement with the Liberal Democrats. Wera Hobhouse and her husband had originally been Conservative councillors in Rochdale, but defected to the Liberal Democrats a year after getting elected, and then moving to the West Country 10 years later. In 2015 Wera stood as both a parliamentary candidate in North East Somerset constituency and as a council candidate in the local elections, but had not been elected in either.
At local election level, B&NES, which includes Bath, has swung sharply to the Liberal Democrats in the last 8 years. In 2015, in the 17 wards that were then the equivalent of this constituency, the Conservatives won 16 councillors and the Liberal Democrats 13, with 2 Green Party councillors, 2 Independents and one Labour councillor also being elected. However, in 2019, on new ward boundaries (with one less ward), the Liberal Democrats won every ward in this constituency except for one (Westmoreland), which again returned 2 Independents. 2023 saw their majority in B&NES increase again, though in Bath itself they fell back slightly, with the Green Party winning both councillors in Lambridge ward, all other wards remaining unchanged. Thus, the Conservatives have not managed to get one councillor elected in the city since 2015, and across the whole of B&NES are now reduced to just 3 councillors.
The introduction of Bathavon North to the constituency will make very little difference to the likely vote in the next election. In 2015 it was a relatively safe Conservative ward, but the Liberal Democrats took it with ease in 2019 and they now have a large majority there. It would be an enormous shock if Bath were to return anything other than a Liberal Democrat MP at the next election.
Bath is a city famous for its Roman remains, especially the many baths that gave it its Roman name of Aquae Sulis, and for its Georgian architecture, which still makes up much of the housing just outside of the city centre, especially, but not only, on its northern side. These include Royal Crescent and The Circle, and a number of other crescents that sit on its hillsides with extensive views. The city sits astride a number of steep sided hills on both sides of the river Avon, at the southern tip of the Cotswolds. All of this led to the city being granted UNESCO world heritage status, while most of the countryside around the city has Green Belt protection.
Right in its centre is its abbey, Bath being the shared (with Wells) seat of a Church of England diocese. Before the Georgian renaissance, the city was actually fairly run down, but by the 18th century it had become one of Britain's most fashionable resorts, centred on the supposed health giving properties of its baths. The social life that developed from this was famously mocked by Charles Dickens in his Pickwick Papers. It is still a major tourist destination, but its economy is now more diverse, though relying heavily on being a regional retail centre and on public services.
Bath has been represented at Parliament since 1295, and following the 1832 Reform Act, it continued to send 2 MPs to Parliament. However, after the franchise was extended in 1918, it was reduced to being a single member constituency.
Before 1918, it was usually a marginal seat, often electing one Tory and one Whig representative. These representatives normally came from local noble families, including the Thynnes, whose seat is Longleat House, and who take the name of Lord Bath. In 1766 Pitt the Elder became Prime Minister for 5 days while representing Bath as an MP before he was elevated to the Lords. However, there is an underlying nonconformism in the city which has been reflected in its politics, and on two occasions the Radical activist John Arthur Roebuck was elected as one of its MPs.
In the 20th and 21st centuries, the constituency boundaries have alternated between being tightly drawn around the city and extending out to include its eastern hinterland. These alterations have usually made little difference to its overall political representation, except perhaps to slightly strengthen the Conservative vote when the rural hinterland was included. In recent times, the constituency only included the city from 1983 to 1997 and again from 2010 to the present day, while between 1997 and 2010, the constituency also included the eastern suburbs and villages as far as the Wiltshire border.
The result of the city's UNESCO heritage and Green Belt have meant that, unlike almost all other comparable sized towns, Bath has not extended out into its surrounding countryside, apart from some small developments on its edge to its south. Instead, recent development of the city has mostly come about by developing those areas of the city that used to be industrial, and most recently by development of lands that were occupied by the Ministry of Defence for many of its offices. However, while the city's population has grown, it has therefore been much less than in other similar towns, and thus the present constituency size fell just below the minimum electorate population for the new constituencies.
The obvious way to add to its electorate was to include its eastern hinterland again, and this is indeed what has happened. However, it should also be noted that the wards in B&NES were altered in 2019, and one of the city wards (Newbridge) was extended out to include some small villages outside of the city boundary to its north-west. So the new constituency includes all of the city's current 15 wards (Bathwick, Combe Down, Kingsmead, Lambridge, Lansdown, Moorlands, Newbridge, Odd Down, Oldfield Park, Southdown, Twerton, Walcot, Westmoreland, Weston and Widcombe & Lyncombe) plus one ward from outside of the city, Bathavon North. This ward includes the suburban areas of Batheaston and Bathampton, the large village of Bathford, which is just east of Batheaston and partly merges into it, and also a number of smaller villages, mostly to the north of Bath up to its borders with Wiltshire and South Gloucestershire. Thus, the constituency now includes villages from Kelston in the north-west right round to Claverton to its east, and the constituency electorate sits right in the middle of the accepted range, at 73,241.
Not surprisingly, it is an affluent constituency, with high levels of house ownership and residents with degrees. However, it does have some large areas with social deprivation, especially in the south-west and inner eastern parts of the city. Most notable though is that it has a very high younger population (17th highest of those in the 18-35 age), due largely to having two universities, Bath and Bath Spa. Bath University sits right on the south-eastern edge of the city and constituency, while Bath Spa University lies outside the constituency to its west, at Newton St Loe, but with most of its students resident in the city.
Politically, the Conservatives have been the dominant party throughout most of the 20th century, though the constituency could only have ever been considered a safe seat for them during the inter war years. Labour were the second party at all elections from 1945 to 1970, and came less than 1,000 votes behind in 1966, and were never too far back in other years. During this period, the Liberal vote was generally well back in third, mostly around one third to one half of the Labour vote, but in February 1974, the Liberals took second place from Labour by just over 1,000 votes and just over 5,000 votes behind the Conservatives (similar to the previous Labour vote). The Liberals narrowed the Conservative majority in the October 1974 election, but fell back a long way in 1979, when Margaret Thatcher became Prime Minister, with Chris Patten becoming Bath's MP. The Liberals had managed to hold onto second place, and with the formation of the SDP and their alliance with the Liberal Party, in 1983 the Liberals agreed to the SDP candidate standing here, Malcolm Dean. He reduced the Conservative majority back to 5,000 and then to just 1,400 in 1987.
In 1992, Chris Patten was credited with coordinating the Conservative manifesto, and the Conservatives swept to power nationally. However, with the formation of the Liberal Democratic Party and a new candidate, Don Foster, their candidate, overturned the Conservative majority here and won the seat with a majority of 3,768. That majority increased to over 9,000 in 1997 and almost 10,000 in 2001, when the Conservative vote fell to its lowest in the constituency since 1918. The 1992 election was also notable for the emergence of Alan Sked as the Anti-Federalist League candidate, who received 117 votes. The next year he founded UKIP.
In 2005 the Liberal Democrat majority fell to just 4,500, partly due to a rise in the Conservative vote, with the Green Party candidate receiving enough votes to hold their deposit. However, in 2010, Don Foster's majority grew to their largest yet, at nearly 12,000, and the seat appeared to have become safe for the Liberal Democrats. However, their fortunes changed when they joined into a coalition with the Conservatives in government, and along with local unpopularity, the Conservatives had a shock gain in 2015, defeating the Liberal Democrats by nearly 4,000 votes, with the Labour vote increasing and both the Green Party and UKIP receiving easily their best ever votes in the constituency.
Bath is thought to have voted overwhelmingly Remain in the 2016 referendum, well above the B&NES vote of 57.9%. This certainly partly explains why in 2017, despite replacing their selected candidate at the last moment with the little known Wera Hobhouse, the Liberal Democrats took the seat back with ease with a majority of over 5,500. In 2019 this increased to well over 12,000, making the seat once again safe for them, partly helped by the Green Party not standing a candidate here as part of a national agreement with the Liberal Democrats. Wera Hobhouse and her husband had originally been Conservative councillors in Rochdale, but defected to the Liberal Democrats a year after getting elected, and then moving to the West Country 10 years later. In 2015 Wera stood as both a parliamentary candidate in North East Somerset constituency and as a council candidate in the local elections, but had not been elected in either.
At local election level, B&NES, which includes Bath, has swung sharply to the Liberal Democrats in the last 8 years. In 2015, in the 17 wards that were then the equivalent of this constituency, the Conservatives won 16 councillors and the Liberal Democrats 13, with 2 Green Party councillors, 2 Independents and one Labour councillor also being elected. However, in 2019, on new ward boundaries (with one less ward), the Liberal Democrats won every ward in this constituency except for one (Westmoreland), which again returned 2 Independents. 2023 saw their majority in B&NES increase again, though in Bath itself they fell back slightly, with the Green Party winning both councillors in Lambridge ward, all other wards remaining unchanged. Thus, the Conservatives have not managed to get one councillor elected in the city since 2015, and across the whole of B&NES are now reduced to just 3 councillors.
The introduction of Bathavon North to the constituency will make very little difference to the likely vote in the next election. In 2015 it was a relatively safe Conservative ward, but the Liberal Democrats took it with ease in 2019 and they now have a large majority there. It would be an enormous shock if Bath were to return anything other than a Liberal Democrat MP at the next election.
