Post by Robert Waller on Dec 12, 2023 20:06:11 GMT
MacShimidh has kindly given permission to reproduce and update his authoritative Glasgow profiles, with boundary change analysis by ntyuk1707 and some light adjustments by myself.
Glasgow is a city of contrasts, with affluence and deprivation often co-existing in close proximity. This can be seen very clearly in the newly drawn and named Glasgow West, where one of the city’s most notorious housing schemes and the last remnants of Glasgow’s working-class ship-building past can be found within walking distance of one of the city’s wealthiest areas and gentrified student accommodation. In the boundary changes, Glasgow North West loses the western side of Yoker to West Dunbartonshire, and gains most of (15,600 electors) the west-end ward of Partick East & Kelvindale including the neighbourhoods of Partick, Partickhill, Dowanhill and Hyndland from Glasgow North. It is renamed Glasgow West. The changes alter the demographics of the constituency and benefit Labour. Three of the four wards now defined in Glasgow West had Labour pluralities of first preferences in the 2022 city council elections. The changes will move the seat from having voted very marginally in favour of independence at the 2014 independence referendum to becoming Glasgow's only constituency which rejected Scottish independence in 2014, by a narrow margin.
We begin our tour of this constituency on Dumbarton Road, which serves as one of the main arteries of the Partick area, and the western boundary of the studenty West End. This section of Dumbarton Road is lined with trendy cafes and pubs, with most of the tenement housing here being aimed at the large student population. Further away from Dumbarton Road, in the Broomhill and Thornbank areas, there are some very nice properties indeed, though on the whole, this is a mixed area with some high-rise flats. The prevalence of students in this area makes it an area of strength for Labour and the Greens, though of course the SNP have dominated in the recent past. Of the areas added from Glasgow North, Partick is famous for its iconic sandstone buildings. Whilst this is still a very studenty part of the West End, there are more professionals here than in Hillhead (still in Glasgow North), making this a more politically diverse area. To the immediate north of Partick, nestled between Great Western Road and the Kelvin, lies the leafy, affluent neighbourhood of Kelvindale. Some of the streets here are among the most expensive in Scotland, and this is an area of strength for the Conservatives. .
Following the Clyde and Dumbarton Road to the west, we reach the Whiteinch area. Before the industrialisation of Glasgow, this was an island in the Clyde known for being a convenient crossing to the south of the city. Whiteinch is obviously an island no more, but is still home to an important transport link in the guise of the Clyde Tunnel which goes to Govan. Just to the north of Whiteinch lies the scenic Victoria Park, which serves as the centre of the eponymous ward. This is the beating heart of middle-class Glasgow, with many of the streets here being among the most desirable and expensive in Scotland, particularly around the Jordanhill area. Victoria Park has been the Conservatives’ strongest ward in the city, and they even managed to beat Labour for second place here in the 2017 locals.
If we head west further still along the Clyde, we arrive in Scotstoun, itself a fairly upmarket area – not to be confused with neighbouring Scotstounhill, which is home to cheaper housing and some high rises. Scotstoun is best known for its stadium, which is the home of the Glasgow Warriors rugby union side. Additionally, the last remnants of Glasgow’s shipbuilding industry can be found here, with the massive BAE Systems facility having taken on contracts for the Royal Navy and thus providing many specialist jobs in the constituency. Passing through Garscadden, we come to Yoker, a mixed area which serves as the boundary of Glasgow with West Dunbartonshire – moved a little further east in the current boundary changes, which transfer 2,491 voters.
To the north of Yoker lies Knightswood, perhaps best known for its golf course and large park, and just along the road from here we come to Anniesland. Anniesland Cross is one of the busiest junctions in Glasgow, with traffic coming from the south up Crow Road, and from the east along Great Western Road. The imposing Anniesland Court, Scotland’s tallest listed building, is the area’s most distinctive feature, and there is a surprising amount of gentrification for somewhere so far from the city centre. This is perhaps due to the large number of Glasgow University vet students, as their campus is located not far from here. Following Great Western Road to the northwest, we pass through Temple and Blairdardie, before stopping at Old Drumchapel, which despite its proximity to the much newer housing estate, is actually an upmarket area with some impressive sandstone villas more akin to the West End.
Finally, in the north-western extremity of the seat, we come to Drumchapel itself. Drumchapel is one of the infamous “big four” housing estates that were built in Glasgow following the end of the Second World War. Having only been added to Glasgow proper in the 1920s, the area somehow just feels very distant from the rest of Glasgow, in part due to poor public transport links. The area has seen a lot of regeneration over the last couple of decades, and quite recently a huge number of substandard houses were demolished, adding to the somewhat isolated and empty feel of the area. Whilst its reputation has improved since the 1970s and 80s, Drumchapel does still have enduring problems with gang violence and drug use.
There is not very much to say about this seat’s representatives. Glasgow NW was first won by Labour’s John Robertson, who had been elected to Glasgow Anniesland in the 2000 by-election following the death of Donald Dewar. He was succeeded by the SNP’s Carol Monaghan, a competent if somewhat anonymous Nationalist who has become their spokesperson for Education, the Armed Forces and Veterans.
Somewhat surprisingly given the relatively weak Yes vote here, NW had become the SNP’s strongest seat in Glasgow. This is because the seat didn’t have some of the characteristics that have helped Labour to recover in other parts of Glasgow. For instance, it didn’t have as large a student vote as North or Central, and it wasn’t as monolithically working-class as North East or East. The strong Tory vote in Victoria Park has also been an albatross around Labour’s neck.
In the May 2022 Glasgow city elections, though, Labour did receive the most first preference votes in Victoria Park with 28.4%, compared with 26,6% for the SNP, 23.4% for the Greens and 15.8% for the Conservatuves – almost a four way marginal (although it was the Tories who lost out after the STV process in this three member council ward), and it will be interesting to see to what extent the unionist vote here coalesces behind Labour at the next general election. Labour also took a plurality in the other ward entirely within Glasgow West, Drumchapel/Anniesland – but only just, with 38.2% to the SNP’s 37.9%. As might be expected from its more working class nature, it was the weakest ward in the new West for the Tories, who only received 9.5%. Around 90% of the Garscadden/Scotstounhill ward is in Glasgow West, and here it was the Nationalists who were the narrow ‘winners’ over Labour, by 40.7% to 38.7%. Finally, in Partick East/Kelvindale (about three-quarters in the West constituency) Labour had a larger lead, with 33% to the SNP’s 28%, though here too as elsewhere in the ‘west end’, the Greens did well, their 21% share comfortably relegating the Tories to fourth place with 13%.
The Greens did not even contest Glasgow NW in the December 2019 general election (nor in Anniesland for the Scottish Parliament in 2021), and polled only 3.6% in the North constituency. It seems unlikely that they can replicate their strong performances in the 2022 city council contests within the new West in a 2024 national contest, though they did finish second with a strong 25% in the Holyrood constituency of Kelvin in 2021. Kelvin does not overlap much even with the new lines of Glasgow West, and North may see the main Green effort at the next general election too. Clearly Labour are the strongest challengers to the SNP in West. With their revival in Scotland and the recent steep decline in SNP success, they must be optimistic about winning a seat that, appropriately with its new name, has more of the ‘west end’ in it than Glasgow North West did.
2011 Census, Glasgow NW old boundaries
Age 65+ 15.0% 457/650
Owner-occupied 48.1% 588/650
Private rented 13.5% 366/650
Social rented 36.9% 19/650
White 91.7% 402/650
Black 2.4% 159/650
Asian 4.9% 234/650
Managerial & professional 29.9%
Routine & Semi-routine 27.1%
Degree level 29.2% 211/650
No qualifications 30.1% 93/650
Students 10.3% 141/650
General Election 2019: Glasgow North West
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Carol Monaghan 19,678 49.5 +7.0
Labour Patricia Ferguson 11,319 28.5 -7.4
Conservative Ade Aibinu 6,022 15.2 -2.8
Liberal Democrats James Speirs 2,716 6.8 +3.2
SNP Majority 8,359 21.0 +14.4
Turnout 39,735 62.7 +1.9
SNP hold
Swing 7.2 Lab to SNP
Boundary Changes
Glasgow West consists of
94.8% of Glasgow North West
22.7% of Glasgow North
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/glasgow_west_0.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Professor David Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
Glasgow is a city of contrasts, with affluence and deprivation often co-existing in close proximity. This can be seen very clearly in the newly drawn and named Glasgow West, where one of the city’s most notorious housing schemes and the last remnants of Glasgow’s working-class ship-building past can be found within walking distance of one of the city’s wealthiest areas and gentrified student accommodation. In the boundary changes, Glasgow North West loses the western side of Yoker to West Dunbartonshire, and gains most of (15,600 electors) the west-end ward of Partick East & Kelvindale including the neighbourhoods of Partick, Partickhill, Dowanhill and Hyndland from Glasgow North. It is renamed Glasgow West. The changes alter the demographics of the constituency and benefit Labour. Three of the four wards now defined in Glasgow West had Labour pluralities of first preferences in the 2022 city council elections. The changes will move the seat from having voted very marginally in favour of independence at the 2014 independence referendum to becoming Glasgow's only constituency which rejected Scottish independence in 2014, by a narrow margin.
We begin our tour of this constituency on Dumbarton Road, which serves as one of the main arteries of the Partick area, and the western boundary of the studenty West End. This section of Dumbarton Road is lined with trendy cafes and pubs, with most of the tenement housing here being aimed at the large student population. Further away from Dumbarton Road, in the Broomhill and Thornbank areas, there are some very nice properties indeed, though on the whole, this is a mixed area with some high-rise flats. The prevalence of students in this area makes it an area of strength for Labour and the Greens, though of course the SNP have dominated in the recent past. Of the areas added from Glasgow North, Partick is famous for its iconic sandstone buildings. Whilst this is still a very studenty part of the West End, there are more professionals here than in Hillhead (still in Glasgow North), making this a more politically diverse area. To the immediate north of Partick, nestled between Great Western Road and the Kelvin, lies the leafy, affluent neighbourhood of Kelvindale. Some of the streets here are among the most expensive in Scotland, and this is an area of strength for the Conservatives. .
Following the Clyde and Dumbarton Road to the west, we reach the Whiteinch area. Before the industrialisation of Glasgow, this was an island in the Clyde known for being a convenient crossing to the south of the city. Whiteinch is obviously an island no more, but is still home to an important transport link in the guise of the Clyde Tunnel which goes to Govan. Just to the north of Whiteinch lies the scenic Victoria Park, which serves as the centre of the eponymous ward. This is the beating heart of middle-class Glasgow, with many of the streets here being among the most desirable and expensive in Scotland, particularly around the Jordanhill area. Victoria Park has been the Conservatives’ strongest ward in the city, and they even managed to beat Labour for second place here in the 2017 locals.
If we head west further still along the Clyde, we arrive in Scotstoun, itself a fairly upmarket area – not to be confused with neighbouring Scotstounhill, which is home to cheaper housing and some high rises. Scotstoun is best known for its stadium, which is the home of the Glasgow Warriors rugby union side. Additionally, the last remnants of Glasgow’s shipbuilding industry can be found here, with the massive BAE Systems facility having taken on contracts for the Royal Navy and thus providing many specialist jobs in the constituency. Passing through Garscadden, we come to Yoker, a mixed area which serves as the boundary of Glasgow with West Dunbartonshire – moved a little further east in the current boundary changes, which transfer 2,491 voters.
To the north of Yoker lies Knightswood, perhaps best known for its golf course and large park, and just along the road from here we come to Anniesland. Anniesland Cross is one of the busiest junctions in Glasgow, with traffic coming from the south up Crow Road, and from the east along Great Western Road. The imposing Anniesland Court, Scotland’s tallest listed building, is the area’s most distinctive feature, and there is a surprising amount of gentrification for somewhere so far from the city centre. This is perhaps due to the large number of Glasgow University vet students, as their campus is located not far from here. Following Great Western Road to the northwest, we pass through Temple and Blairdardie, before stopping at Old Drumchapel, which despite its proximity to the much newer housing estate, is actually an upmarket area with some impressive sandstone villas more akin to the West End.
Finally, in the north-western extremity of the seat, we come to Drumchapel itself. Drumchapel is one of the infamous “big four” housing estates that were built in Glasgow following the end of the Second World War. Having only been added to Glasgow proper in the 1920s, the area somehow just feels very distant from the rest of Glasgow, in part due to poor public transport links. The area has seen a lot of regeneration over the last couple of decades, and quite recently a huge number of substandard houses were demolished, adding to the somewhat isolated and empty feel of the area. Whilst its reputation has improved since the 1970s and 80s, Drumchapel does still have enduring problems with gang violence and drug use.
There is not very much to say about this seat’s representatives. Glasgow NW was first won by Labour’s John Robertson, who had been elected to Glasgow Anniesland in the 2000 by-election following the death of Donald Dewar. He was succeeded by the SNP’s Carol Monaghan, a competent if somewhat anonymous Nationalist who has become their spokesperson for Education, the Armed Forces and Veterans.
Somewhat surprisingly given the relatively weak Yes vote here, NW had become the SNP’s strongest seat in Glasgow. This is because the seat didn’t have some of the characteristics that have helped Labour to recover in other parts of Glasgow. For instance, it didn’t have as large a student vote as North or Central, and it wasn’t as monolithically working-class as North East or East. The strong Tory vote in Victoria Park has also been an albatross around Labour’s neck.
In the May 2022 Glasgow city elections, though, Labour did receive the most first preference votes in Victoria Park with 28.4%, compared with 26,6% for the SNP, 23.4% for the Greens and 15.8% for the Conservatuves – almost a four way marginal (although it was the Tories who lost out after the STV process in this three member council ward), and it will be interesting to see to what extent the unionist vote here coalesces behind Labour at the next general election. Labour also took a plurality in the other ward entirely within Glasgow West, Drumchapel/Anniesland – but only just, with 38.2% to the SNP’s 37.9%. As might be expected from its more working class nature, it was the weakest ward in the new West for the Tories, who only received 9.5%. Around 90% of the Garscadden/Scotstounhill ward is in Glasgow West, and here it was the Nationalists who were the narrow ‘winners’ over Labour, by 40.7% to 38.7%. Finally, in Partick East/Kelvindale (about three-quarters in the West constituency) Labour had a larger lead, with 33% to the SNP’s 28%, though here too as elsewhere in the ‘west end’, the Greens did well, their 21% share comfortably relegating the Tories to fourth place with 13%.
The Greens did not even contest Glasgow NW in the December 2019 general election (nor in Anniesland for the Scottish Parliament in 2021), and polled only 3.6% in the North constituency. It seems unlikely that they can replicate their strong performances in the 2022 city council contests within the new West in a 2024 national contest, though they did finish second with a strong 25% in the Holyrood constituency of Kelvin in 2021. Kelvin does not overlap much even with the new lines of Glasgow West, and North may see the main Green effort at the next general election too. Clearly Labour are the strongest challengers to the SNP in West. With their revival in Scotland and the recent steep decline in SNP success, they must be optimistic about winning a seat that, appropriately with its new name, has more of the ‘west end’ in it than Glasgow North West did.
2011 Census, Glasgow NW old boundaries
Age 65+ 15.0% 457/650
Owner-occupied 48.1% 588/650
Private rented 13.5% 366/650
Social rented 36.9% 19/650
White 91.7% 402/650
Black 2.4% 159/650
Asian 4.9% 234/650
Managerial & professional 29.9%
Routine & Semi-routine 27.1%
Degree level 29.2% 211/650
No qualifications 30.1% 93/650
Students 10.3% 141/650
General Election 2019: Glasgow North West
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Carol Monaghan 19,678 49.5 +7.0
Labour Patricia Ferguson 11,319 28.5 -7.4
Conservative Ade Aibinu 6,022 15.2 -2.8
Liberal Democrats James Speirs 2,716 6.8 +3.2
SNP Majority 8,359 21.0 +14.4
Turnout 39,735 62.7 +1.9
SNP hold
Swing 7.2 Lab to SNP
Boundary Changes
Glasgow West consists of
94.8% of Glasgow North West
22.7% of Glasgow North
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/glasgow_west_0.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Professor David Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
| SNP | 22964 | 48.6% |
| Lab | 13236 | 28.0% |
| Con | 7254 | 15.4% |
| LD | 3554 | 7.5% |
| Green | 180 | 0.4% |
| Brexit | 74 | 0.2% |
| Majority | 9728 | 20.6% |