ntyuk1707
Conservative
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Oct 24, 2023 13:46:54 GMT
General thread for Australian federal politics.
First opinion poll since the indigenous voice referendum.
Roy Morgan, 16-22 October.
First Preferences:
L/NP 36%
LAB 32%
GRN 14%
ONP 4.5%
OTH 13.5%
Two Party Preferred:
L/NP 50.5%
LAB 49.5%
First poll since the 2022 election to have the Coalition ahead on the 2 party preferred vote.
Probable outcome would nonetheless be a Labor minority government supported by Teal Independents.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 24, 2023 13:55:35 GMT
General thread for Australian federal politics. First opinion poll since the indigenous voice referendum. Roy Morgan, 16-22 October. First Preferences:
L/NP 36% LAB 32% GRN 14% ONP 4.5% OTH 13.5% Two Party Preferred:
L/NP 50.5% LAB 49.5% First poll since the 2022 election to have the Coalition ahead on the 2 party preferred vote. Probable outcome would nonetheless be a Labor minority government supported by Teal Independents. It is going to be interesting to see how many Teals survive 2025 and how many new Dai Le’s (which I guess is kind of close to a mirror image of the Teal Independents but from Labor seats) are going to get elected. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,789 
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Post by iain on Oct 24, 2023 14:30:13 GMT
General thread for Australian federal politics. First opinion poll since the indigenous voice referendum. Roy Morgan, 16-22 October. First Preferences:
L/NP 36% LAB 32% GRN 14% ONP 4.5% OTH 13.5% Two Party Preferred:
L/NP 50.5% LAB 49.5% First poll since the 2022 election to have the Coalition ahead on the 2 party preferred vote. Probable outcome would nonetheless be a Labor minority government supported by Teal Independents. |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 24, 2023 14:36:16 GMT
General thread for Australian federal politics. First opinion poll since the indigenous voice referendum. Roy Morgan, 16-22 October. First Preferences:
L/NP 36% LAB 32% GRN 14% ONP 4.5% OTH 13.5% Two Party Preferred:
L/NP 50.5% LAB 49.5% First poll since the 2022 election to have the Coalition ahead on the 2 party preferred vote. Probable outcome would nonetheless be a Labor minority government supported by Teal Independents. I suspect non-Green non-Coalition/Labor voters are just significantly more likely to have a preference toward the Coalition ahead of Labor now. If I’m correct, Labor is in deep trouble in their Provincial, Rural, and Outer metropolitan divisions. |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,246
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 26, 2023 2:27:20 GMT
I suspect non-Green non-Coalition/Labor voters are just significantly more likely to have a preference toward the Coalition ahead of Labor now. If I’m correct, Labor is in deep trouble in their Provincial, Rural, and Outer metropolitan divisions. Yes, especially in a country like Australia with its traditional cult of the "hard" prole (after all often prudently selected by HM's Courts...):  |
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Post by pericles on Oct 26, 2023 9:45:10 GMT
General thread for Australian federal politics. First opinion poll since the indigenous voice referendum. Roy Morgan, 16-22 October. First Preferences:
L/NP 36% LAB 32% GRN 14% ONP 4.5% OTH 13.5% Two Party Preferred:
L/NP 50.5% LAB 49.5% First poll since the 2022 election to have the Coalition ahead on the 2 party preferred vote. Probable outcome would nonetheless be a Labor minority government supported by Teal Independents. It is going to be interesting to see how many Teals survive 2025 and how many new Dai Le’s (which I guess is kind of close to a mirror image of the Teal Independents but from Labor seats) are going to get elected. The Voice won in all the teal seats so the Liberals are going to struggle to appeal there, their path runs through Labor marginals and working class suburbs. |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 26, 2023 10:06:16 GMT
It is going to be interesting to see how many Teals survive 2025 and how many new Dai Le’s (which I guess is kind of close to a mirror image of the Teal Independents but from Labor seats) are going to get elected. The Voice won in all the teal seats so the Liberals are going to struggle to appeal there, their path runs through Labor marginals and working class suburbs. I know, but the Voice winning by 1% in Mackellar and 2% in Curtin is hardly impressive and given the high likelihood of a swing back to the Coalition in Western Australia, Curtin in particular doesn't seem like a solid hold at all for the Teals. |
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Post by pericles on Oct 27, 2023 2:33:56 GMT
The Voice won in all the teal seats so the Liberals are going to struggle to appeal there, their path runs through Labor marginals and working class suburbs. I know, but the Voice winning by 1% in Mackellar and 2% in Curtin is hardly impressive and given the high likelihood of a swing back to the Coalition in Western Australia, Curtin in particular doesn't seem like a solid hold at all for the Teals. Given the nationwide margin though it shows these areas are disproportionately educated liberals and so the teals will be a lot more popular there than the current Coalition, especially with Dutton as leader. |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 27, 2023 3:10:19 GMT
I know, but the Voice winning by 1% in Mackellar and 2% in Curtin is hardly impressive and given the high likelihood of a swing back to the Coalition in Western Australia, Curtin in particular doesn't seem like a solid hold at all for the Teals. Given the nationwide margin though it shows these areas are disproportionately educated liberals and so the teals will be a lot more popular there than the current Coalition, especially with Dutton as leader. theoretically? Sure, and I would be surprised if they lose (or even record a pro-coalition swing in) more than 1 or 2 seats, but given the special circumstances in Western Australia in the 2022 election that are not there anymore (Mark McGowen, Labor being thought of as significantly more dovish on China than the Coalition), I would honestly be surprised if there was a swing against the coalition in any Division there. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Mar 11, 2024 10:41:51 GMT
The Dunkley by-election is a Labour retain. The writ has been issued for the Cook by-election, to replace former Liberal ministers Scott Morrison, Scott Morrison, Scott Morrison, Scott Morrison, Scott Morrison, Scott Morrison and Scott Morrison. Polling day is 13 April. The seat name commemorates both Captain James Cook and Joseph Cook, one of the more forgotten Prime Ministers (1913-1914). www.abc.net.au/news/elections/cook-by-election-2024 |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Mar 11, 2024 17:36:09 GMT
The writ has been issued for the Cook by-election, to replace former Liberal ministers Scott Morrison, Scott Morrison, Scott Morrison, Scott Morrison, Scott Morrison, Scott Morrison and Scott Morrison. Polling day is 13 April. www.abc.net.au/news/elections/cook-by-election-2024A very safe Liberal seat, Morrison had no personal vote by 2022 and it’s not exactly Teal territory (not that there would be loads of enthusiasm for that at the moment anyways). |
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