Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
Oct 23, 2023 16:24:47 GMT
Robert Waller, andrewp, and 4 more like this
Post by ntyuk1707 on Oct 23, 2023 16:24:47 GMT
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East is a county constituency which straddles along the coast of north east Scotland between Cruden Bay in Aberdeenshire and Buckie in Moray.
Fishing is a major part of this constituency's economy. For example, in 2012 177,569 tonnes of fish landed in Peterhead, Fraserburgh and Buckie - equal to 48.5% of all landings in Scotland in that year. At the 2011 census, approximately 5% of the constituency's population worked in the oil & gas sector, with a further 5% working in agriculture, forestry or fishing.
The constituency has the highest concentration of Scots speakers, with over 40% of residents being able to speak, read and write in the Doric dialect of Scots based in the north-east of the country.
On socio-economic indicators, Aberdeenshire North & Moray East contains the most socially deprived parts of Aberdeenshire and Moray, including central parts of Fraserburgh, Peterhead, Banff, Macduff and Buckie, contrasting more affluent rural and suburban communities. Many communities here have seeming fallen into decline in tandem with the decline of the fishing industry since 1975.
The unique character of the seat goes some way in explaining the seat's unique political history. Prior to 1974, East Aberdeenshire and Banffshire were represented by the Conservatives from 1924 barring a brief interlude from 1929-1935 where Banffshire was represented by Liberal MP Sir Murdoch McKenzie Wood. In 1974, the two seats then flipped over to the SNP in part through the endorsement of the fishing industry, in protest to Britain's membership of the European Economic Community. The two constituencies then returned to the Conservatives at the 1979 general election, before former SNP leader Alex Salmond gained Banff & Buchan and Margaret Ewing of the SNP took Moray in 1987, constituencies which the parties went on to hold in the UK and Scottish Parliaments for the next 25 years.
At the 2014 independence referendum, the newly formed Aberdeenshire North & Moray East constituency is estimated to have voted 53% against Scottish independence, with the former Westminster constituencies of Moray and Banff & Buchan then giving the SNP historic majorities of 9,065 and 14,339 in the following year's general election.
But at the 2016 EU membership referendum, Aberdeenshire North & Moray East returned Scotland's largest vote to leave the European Union. According to the BBC, the 'Aberdeenshire North' component of this constituency voted 61% Leave, while Moray council voted 49.9% Leave, although Buckie is estimated to have voted more strongly to Leave the EU. This, combined with an increasingly confident Conservative Party in Scotland, led to the Moray and Banff & Buchan constituencies falling to the Conservatives at the 2017 general election, with Banff & Buchan becoming the only constituency in the whole of Scotland to see a swing towards the Conservatives at the subsequent 2019 general election, with a 4,118 vote majority for David Duguid (9.7%). Moray is held by Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross with a 513 vote majority.
Despite this change of fortunes for the Conservatives in the north-east of Scotland, the co-terminus Banffshire & Buchan Coast constituency narrowly returned Karen Adam as its constituency MSP at the 2021 Scottish Parliamentary election who won 14,920 votes (45%) to the Conservatives' 14,148 votes (43%) to hold the constituency for the SNP with a majority of 772 votes.
Boundary changes here see the old Banff & Buchan seat lose Conservative-leaning inland areas including Turiff and south-west Buchan, to be replaced by the more SNP-leaning town of Buckie from Moray alongside Conservative-leaning Cullen and Portknockie and SNP-leaning Keith, which effectively cancel each other out. Notionally, the seat would have a reduced Conservative majority ahead of the SNP of just over 3,000 votes (7%) compared to the old Banff & Buchan seat.
Through the War of the Three Kingdoms, this corner of Scotland was noted for its support of the Royalist cause, in contrast to widespread support for the Conventators in the rest of Lowland Scotland despite its Protestant inclination, and this distinction to the rest of Scotland may perhaps play true again at the next General Election. Currently, the electoral woes of the Conservatives and the SNP makes the result here quite unpredictable, though for the time being David Duguid looks set to return to Westminster should current polling maintain to next year.
The political divide in this constituency is fairly stark, with most villages, smaller towns and rural areas being more supportive of the Conservatives in contrast to a higher SNP vote in the larger towns of Buckie, Keith, Peterhead, Banff, Macduff and communities south of Peterhead.
Fishing is a major part of this constituency's economy. For example, in 2012 177,569 tonnes of fish landed in Peterhead, Fraserburgh and Buckie - equal to 48.5% of all landings in Scotland in that year. At the 2011 census, approximately 5% of the constituency's population worked in the oil & gas sector, with a further 5% working in agriculture, forestry or fishing.
The constituency has the highest concentration of Scots speakers, with over 40% of residents being able to speak, read and write in the Doric dialect of Scots based in the north-east of the country.
On socio-economic indicators, Aberdeenshire North & Moray East contains the most socially deprived parts of Aberdeenshire and Moray, including central parts of Fraserburgh, Peterhead, Banff, Macduff and Buckie, contrasting more affluent rural and suburban communities. Many communities here have seeming fallen into decline in tandem with the decline of the fishing industry since 1975.
The unique character of the seat goes some way in explaining the seat's unique political history. Prior to 1974, East Aberdeenshire and Banffshire were represented by the Conservatives from 1924 barring a brief interlude from 1929-1935 where Banffshire was represented by Liberal MP Sir Murdoch McKenzie Wood. In 1974, the two seats then flipped over to the SNP in part through the endorsement of the fishing industry, in protest to Britain's membership of the European Economic Community. The two constituencies then returned to the Conservatives at the 1979 general election, before former SNP leader Alex Salmond gained Banff & Buchan and Margaret Ewing of the SNP took Moray in 1987, constituencies which the parties went on to hold in the UK and Scottish Parliaments for the next 25 years.
At the 2014 independence referendum, the newly formed Aberdeenshire North & Moray East constituency is estimated to have voted 53% against Scottish independence, with the former Westminster constituencies of Moray and Banff & Buchan then giving the SNP historic majorities of 9,065 and 14,339 in the following year's general election.
But at the 2016 EU membership referendum, Aberdeenshire North & Moray East returned Scotland's largest vote to leave the European Union. According to the BBC, the 'Aberdeenshire North' component of this constituency voted 61% Leave, while Moray council voted 49.9% Leave, although Buckie is estimated to have voted more strongly to Leave the EU. This, combined with an increasingly confident Conservative Party in Scotland, led to the Moray and Banff & Buchan constituencies falling to the Conservatives at the 2017 general election, with Banff & Buchan becoming the only constituency in the whole of Scotland to see a swing towards the Conservatives at the subsequent 2019 general election, with a 4,118 vote majority for David Duguid (9.7%). Moray is held by Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross with a 513 vote majority.
Despite this change of fortunes for the Conservatives in the north-east of Scotland, the co-terminus Banffshire & Buchan Coast constituency narrowly returned Karen Adam as its constituency MSP at the 2021 Scottish Parliamentary election who won 14,920 votes (45%) to the Conservatives' 14,148 votes (43%) to hold the constituency for the SNP with a majority of 772 votes.
Boundary changes here see the old Banff & Buchan seat lose Conservative-leaning inland areas including Turiff and south-west Buchan, to be replaced by the more SNP-leaning town of Buckie from Moray alongside Conservative-leaning Cullen and Portknockie and SNP-leaning Keith, which effectively cancel each other out. Notionally, the seat would have a reduced Conservative majority ahead of the SNP of just over 3,000 votes (7%) compared to the old Banff & Buchan seat.
Through the War of the Three Kingdoms, this corner of Scotland was noted for its support of the Royalist cause, in contrast to widespread support for the Conventators in the rest of Lowland Scotland despite its Protestant inclination, and this distinction to the rest of Scotland may perhaps play true again at the next General Election. Currently, the electoral woes of the Conservatives and the SNP makes the result here quite unpredictable, though for the time being David Duguid looks set to return to Westminster should current polling maintain to next year.
The political divide in this constituency is fairly stark, with most villages, smaller towns and rural areas being more supportive of the Conservatives in contrast to a higher SNP vote in the larger towns of Buckie, Keith, Peterhead, Banff, Macduff and communities south of Peterhead.
