Mid Dorset and North Poole
Oct 23, 2023 10:55:22 GMT
Pete Whitehead, Robert Waller, and 4 more like this
Post by andrewp on Oct 23, 2023 10:55:22 GMT
Two of the conundrums that the Boundary commission often faces in parliamentary boundary reviews are: firstly when population growth in a shire county ‘ merits’ an additional parliamentary constituency and secondly when a large town or small city grows to the point where it is too big for one constituency but not big enough for 2 so that some wards need to be removed and placed in a neighbouring constituency. In the first scenario the principal of minimum change to existing seats, so loved by the commission, often leads to the extra seat popping up in the geographic centre of the county, formed of bits shaved off the edges of existing constituencies and resulting in a bit of a ragbag ‘Mid’ or central county seat. ( See Devon Central, Meon Valley, Mid Norfolk). In the second scenario a couple of wards from the edge of the city or town usually have to be removed and placed a bit awkwardly in a neighbouring largely rural constituency ( see Devon East, Central Suffolk and Ipswich North, Tewkesbury).
In the mid 1990s the commission faced both of these problems in Dorset where the county itself merited an extra constituency and the Bournemouth/Poole conurbation was too large to be contained in its 3 constituencies. When the review concluded there was little doubt as to which of the eight proposed constituencies was the ‘extra’ seat- it was this one. Its name gives away the fact that this is a mixture of outer suburbia from the Poole and Bournemouth conurbation and some surrounding small towns and villages. This is, however, a relatively compact seat and far from the worst ‘Mid’ county seat in existence. On creation the seat took voters from four previous seats but only the two real different sources suggested in the seat name. 40000 (62%) voters came from the northern most wards of the Borough of Poole and 24000 (38%)voters from the Mid Dorset component, in the small towns and big villages of Wareham, Lytchett Minster, Lytchett Mattravers, and Corfe Mullen.
In subsequent boundary changes in 2010 the Dorset Mid part increased in size with the addition of the fashionable little town of Wimborne Minster, whilst the Poole North section was reduced by the removal of 2 wards back to Poole and Bournemouth West. This more or less reversed the 60/40 split of population in favour of ‘Mid Dorset’
Somewhat surprisingly given its location on the edge of a conurbation, usually a favoured location for house building, this seat is now under populated and about 5000 voters short of the minimum electorate for a constituency in the 2019-24 boundary review. This is solved by topping up the seat from both Dorset North and Dorset South. Firstly about 4000 voters in the Stour Vale to the north of Wimborne Minster including the villages of Sturminster Marshall, Stanbridge and Holt are added. In addition about 1000 electors to the south of Wareham on the way to the Isle of Purbeck in Stoborough and Ridge villages join the seat. These 2 changes almost double the geographical area of the constituency. They are also Conservative inclined areas and probably add 2000 to the Conservative majority here.
Whilst this constituency looked safe enough for the Conservative Party in 2019 ( majority of 15000) this seat has been won by the Liberal Democrat’s on 3 occasions in 2001,2005 and 2010. 2 of those 3 wins were by wafer thin margins of 384 (in 2001) and 269 ( in 2010) and therefore the Liberal Democrat’s would almost certainly not have achieved those two victories on the new boundaries.
This is a fairly affluent and comfortable semi rural and semi suburban constituency. It is a popular place for commuters who work in Bournemouth and Poole. It has a long history in many of its wards of voting Liberal Democrat in Local elections and Conservative in national elections, apart from that period between 2001-10 when the Lib Dems were able to translate this local success into national Elections. It is 96.8% white, in the top 50 constituencies in England for the % of houses that are owned outright and in the top 50 constituencies for both the 45-64 and over 65 age groups, all of this reflecting comfortable established suburbia
The North Poole part of this seat contains the wards of Bearwood and Merley, Canford Heath and Broadstone. These wards are full of relatively affluent post war suburbia. Canford Heath was won by the Lib Dems by approximately 2 to 1 in 2019, and Bearwood and Merley and Broadstone by approximately 3 to 1, but when local elections have been held on the same day as local elections in the past such as in 2015 we can see that these wards would have been fairly even between the Conservatives and Lib Dems at general elections.
In the Mid Dorset section are two historic towns in Wareham and Wimborne Minster. Wareham lies to the South West of Poole and has a population of about 8000 and is a Georgian town, having been rebuilt in that period following a devastating fire. Wimborne Minster lies to the North of Poole and has a population of 15000. It is home to a fine Norman and Gothic minster. Both of these towns also voted 2 to 1 for the Liberal Democrats at the 2019 local elections, the last local elections held for the Dorset unitary authority, but would be carried by the Conservatives in general elections.
Corfe Mullen and Lytchett Mattravers are rapidly expanding affluent large villages on the edge of the Poole conurbation. Corfe Mullen actually merging into the North Poole suburb of Broadstone. Bere Regis is at the western and more rural end of the seat, and is also the most Conservative part.
Apart from in that party’s nadir of 2015, the Liberal Democrats have always elected a majority of the councillors in this constituency, and at present have 16 of the 20 councillors in this constituency.
As with any ‘mid’ county seat, the future of this seat always looks precarious. Population growth means that Dorset is unlikely to lose seats but Mid county seats always look vulnerable to the whims of the Boundary Commission.
When the seat was first contested it was thought to be a decent Liberal Democrat target with a notional Conservative majority from 1992 of 6054. None of the sitting Dorset Conservative MPs risked a contest here and the Liberal Democrats selected the party’s London based non local Director of Strategy and Planning as their candidate. In that breakthrough year for the Liberal Democrats they would have been disappointed to have lost out to new Conservative candidate Chris Fraser by 681 votes. In 2001, the Liberal Democrats selected the more local Annette Brooke, a former Mayor of Poole, and she edged Chris Fraser out by just 384 votes. Brooke had a further close shave when she hung on by 269 in 2010. Annette Brooke retired in 2015 and the Lib Dems selected future Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council leader Vikki Slade as her successor. In that disastrous year for the Lib Dems, the seat elected Conservative Michael Tomlinson by over 10,000 votes. He has since beaten Vikki Slade again in 2017 and 2019, and with a majority of 15,000 in 2019. In a seat that voted 57% leave, Vikki Slade and Michael Tomlinson are scheduled to compete for a 4th time in 2024 and whilst it looks likely to be the closest of the 4 contests, it still looks like a sizeable challenge for the Liberal Democrat’s.
In the mid 1990s the commission faced both of these problems in Dorset where the county itself merited an extra constituency and the Bournemouth/Poole conurbation was too large to be contained in its 3 constituencies. When the review concluded there was little doubt as to which of the eight proposed constituencies was the ‘extra’ seat- it was this one. Its name gives away the fact that this is a mixture of outer suburbia from the Poole and Bournemouth conurbation and some surrounding small towns and villages. This is, however, a relatively compact seat and far from the worst ‘Mid’ county seat in existence. On creation the seat took voters from four previous seats but only the two real different sources suggested in the seat name. 40000 (62%) voters came from the northern most wards of the Borough of Poole and 24000 (38%)voters from the Mid Dorset component, in the small towns and big villages of Wareham, Lytchett Minster, Lytchett Mattravers, and Corfe Mullen.
In subsequent boundary changes in 2010 the Dorset Mid part increased in size with the addition of the fashionable little town of Wimborne Minster, whilst the Poole North section was reduced by the removal of 2 wards back to Poole and Bournemouth West. This more or less reversed the 60/40 split of population in favour of ‘Mid Dorset’
Somewhat surprisingly given its location on the edge of a conurbation, usually a favoured location for house building, this seat is now under populated and about 5000 voters short of the minimum electorate for a constituency in the 2019-24 boundary review. This is solved by topping up the seat from both Dorset North and Dorset South. Firstly about 4000 voters in the Stour Vale to the north of Wimborne Minster including the villages of Sturminster Marshall, Stanbridge and Holt are added. In addition about 1000 electors to the south of Wareham on the way to the Isle of Purbeck in Stoborough and Ridge villages join the seat. These 2 changes almost double the geographical area of the constituency. They are also Conservative inclined areas and probably add 2000 to the Conservative majority here.
Whilst this constituency looked safe enough for the Conservative Party in 2019 ( majority of 15000) this seat has been won by the Liberal Democrat’s on 3 occasions in 2001,2005 and 2010. 2 of those 3 wins were by wafer thin margins of 384 (in 2001) and 269 ( in 2010) and therefore the Liberal Democrat’s would almost certainly not have achieved those two victories on the new boundaries.
This is a fairly affluent and comfortable semi rural and semi suburban constituency. It is a popular place for commuters who work in Bournemouth and Poole. It has a long history in many of its wards of voting Liberal Democrat in Local elections and Conservative in national elections, apart from that period between 2001-10 when the Lib Dems were able to translate this local success into national Elections. It is 96.8% white, in the top 50 constituencies in England for the % of houses that are owned outright and in the top 50 constituencies for both the 45-64 and over 65 age groups, all of this reflecting comfortable established suburbia
The North Poole part of this seat contains the wards of Bearwood and Merley, Canford Heath and Broadstone. These wards are full of relatively affluent post war suburbia. Canford Heath was won by the Lib Dems by approximately 2 to 1 in 2019, and Bearwood and Merley and Broadstone by approximately 3 to 1, but when local elections have been held on the same day as local elections in the past such as in 2015 we can see that these wards would have been fairly even between the Conservatives and Lib Dems at general elections.
In the Mid Dorset section are two historic towns in Wareham and Wimborne Minster. Wareham lies to the South West of Poole and has a population of about 8000 and is a Georgian town, having been rebuilt in that period following a devastating fire. Wimborne Minster lies to the North of Poole and has a population of 15000. It is home to a fine Norman and Gothic minster. Both of these towns also voted 2 to 1 for the Liberal Democrats at the 2019 local elections, the last local elections held for the Dorset unitary authority, but would be carried by the Conservatives in general elections.
Corfe Mullen and Lytchett Mattravers are rapidly expanding affluent large villages on the edge of the Poole conurbation. Corfe Mullen actually merging into the North Poole suburb of Broadstone. Bere Regis is at the western and more rural end of the seat, and is also the most Conservative part.
Apart from in that party’s nadir of 2015, the Liberal Democrats have always elected a majority of the councillors in this constituency, and at present have 16 of the 20 councillors in this constituency.
As with any ‘mid’ county seat, the future of this seat always looks precarious. Population growth means that Dorset is unlikely to lose seats but Mid county seats always look vulnerable to the whims of the Boundary Commission.
When the seat was first contested it was thought to be a decent Liberal Democrat target with a notional Conservative majority from 1992 of 6054. None of the sitting Dorset Conservative MPs risked a contest here and the Liberal Democrats selected the party’s London based non local Director of Strategy and Planning as their candidate. In that breakthrough year for the Liberal Democrats they would have been disappointed to have lost out to new Conservative candidate Chris Fraser by 681 votes. In 2001, the Liberal Democrats selected the more local Annette Brooke, a former Mayor of Poole, and she edged Chris Fraser out by just 384 votes. Brooke had a further close shave when she hung on by 269 in 2010. Annette Brooke retired in 2015 and the Lib Dems selected future Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council leader Vikki Slade as her successor. In that disastrous year for the Lib Dems, the seat elected Conservative Michael Tomlinson by over 10,000 votes. He has since beaten Vikki Slade again in 2017 and 2019, and with a majority of 15,000 in 2019. In a seat that voted 57% leave, Vikki Slade and Michael Tomlinson are scheduled to compete for a 4th time in 2024 and whilst it looks likely to be the closest of the 4 contests, it still looks like a sizeable challenge for the Liberal Democrat’s.
