Sunak's track record in by-elections

[Harry Hayfield]

City of Chester: Lab HOLD (Con -14%)
Stretford and Urmston: Lab HOLD (Con -12%)
West Lancashire: Lab HOLD (Con -11%)
Selby and Ainsty: Lab GAIN (Con -26%)
Somerton and Frome: Lib Dem GAIN (Con -30%)
Uxbridge and South Rusilip: Con HOLD (Con -7%)
Rutherglen and Hamilton West: Lab GAIN (Con -11%)
Mid Bedfordshire: Lab GAIN (Con -29%)
Tamworth: Lab GAIN (Con -25%)

Conservative defences: Con -11%
Non Conservative defences: Con -13%

[bigfatron]

The average Tory vote share drop in Tory defences is 23.5%, not 11% - their best result is -7% and they have a -30%, -29% and -26% in there!

[The Bishop]

I may work out Con/Lab swings in all byelections this parliament later - Hartlepool will certainly stick out a bit.

[bigfatron]

Some wag has applied the Mid Beds vote share changes to Electoral Calculus and ended up with a 'prediction' with the Tories as the fourth largest party, having fewer seats than the Lib Dems and the SNP.
I haven't bothered to check if they are right and it's utter nonsense anyway of course, but while Tory ministers try to spin this as 'not that bad' it provides an amusing counterpoint none the less...

[Harry Hayfield]

Oct 20, 2023 10:37:24 GMT bigfatron said:

Some wag has applied the Mid Beds vote share changes to Electoral Calculus and ended up with a 'prediction' with the Tories as the fourth largest party, having fewer seats than the Lib Dems and the SNP.
I haven't bothered to check if they are right and it's utter nonsense anyway of course, but while Tory ministers try to spin this as 'not that bad' it provides an amusing counterpoint none the less...

And if anyone states that "The Conservatives will go down because Lab and Lib Dem will conspire against them as we saw in Mid Beds" then I would say "That would mean that Labour would be on 42% in the polls, the Conservatives on 25% and the Lib Dems on 22% which is clearly not the case!"