Post by Robert Waller on Oct 4, 2023 12:43:10 GMT
This is a new name for pretty much a new constituency, but it is a logical one. East Wiltshire (not ‘Wiltshire East’, please as this is very much a county division) consists of a long strip of the county running from the fringes of Swindon in the north through the Vale of Pewsey, then the environs of Stonehenge all the way through the Salisbury Avon valley around the Woodfords to just north of Wilton.
East Wiltshire takes a substantial amount of territory from the South Swindon seat – two full wards of the Swindon unitary authority, Wroughton & Wichelstowe and Ridgeway, and part of another, Chiseldon & Lawn (the more rural, Chiseldon, part). It also includes nearly 18% of the Salisbury constituency, essentially the town of Amesbury and the Till Valley towards its southern end. However, most of East Wiltshire is made up of territory from Devizes; and most (64.5%) of the former Devizes goes into East Wiltshire. Therefore this is the successor to the Devizes seat, not the new Devizes & Melksham. As well as the town of Devizes, among the 35% that departs to join Melksham are Urchfont & Bishops Cannings, Seend, Potterne and the Lavingtons.
It may seem hard to find a unifying theme to East Wiltshire. However, one thing that was notable about Devizes still applies. This is the high proportion employed in the armed services. East Wiltshire covers a substantial portion of the Salisbury Plain, the chalk plateau that has been a prime site for military exercises since 1898. The boundaries almost seem designed to maximise the presence and influence of the British Army. Within East Wiltshire are the communities of Bulford and Durrington (with Larkhill). These are noted for their large Army bases, along with Tidworth. Both of the 2021 census MSOAs including these camps were those with the highest proportion of public administration and defence workers in the whole nation. In Larkhill, Shrewton & Bulford Camp this reached 49.4%, and in Tidworth MSOA 48.5%. These figures are higher even than, say, Catterick Garrison MSOA in North Yorkshire (41.1%) or anywhere in Aldershot, Gosport or any of the usual suspects in East Anglia. It is highly likely that East Wiltshire is the constituency with the highest percentage of defence workers, as Devizes was.*
The analysis of why constituencies vote the way they do lends itself to the generation of statistical lists, as were included in the book form Almanac of British Politics, and subsequently in the Politico’s Guides to the 2015 and 2017 general elections: lists of the most marginal seats and the safest, the largest and smallest electorates, and the demographic characteristics – seats with the most pensioners or students, ethnic percentages, the seats with the highest proportion of agricultural workers, the twenty with the most in the professional and managerial socio-economic groups and the twenty with the highest percentages of manual workers. All of these can be related to voting behaviour and the political tone of the constituencies. One category, however, has not so far been included in my lists: the seats with the highest proportion in the armed service occupations. We can come close to this in the figures relating to “public administration and defence”. In the 2011 national Census, number one out of 633 seats in Britain in this category was Devizes.
Yes, the absolute number so employed in that census was just 10,968 or 21.5% of all workers, but the influence is significant. Not only are dependents and other family members additional to this, but also all the ancillary services and occupations that have a connection with the military in the area. Some of the ‘army camp’ locations are substantial; Tidworth, the largest is home to as many as 10,000 people in all. By tradition defence is one of those political issues that tend to Conservative strength, and although it is also true that the vote of service personnel is by no means monolithic and also tend to a low turnout, the strong military influence is one of the reasons why Devizes was a very safe Tory seat indeed, and why East Wiltshire is expected to be as well..
Of course there are other reasons too. This is a largely rural constituency with a scattering of small towns, none more populous than Amesbury (13,000 in 2021); Wroughton, very much orbiting Swindon, has about 8,000. There is the fertile affluence of the Vale of Pewsey, the town of Pewsey itself having fewer than 4,000 residents. Marlborough (also around 9,000 souls) does also have a well known private school. Stonehenge, of course, though attracting around 850,000 visitors each year and thus generating much controversy about access, does not have a residential population (Avebury, in some ways at least as impressive an ancient monument, is also in the constituency).
Apart from a handful of Independents, all the electoral divisions in the new constituency within the Wiltshire unitary authority (that replaced districts like Kennet from 1 April 2009) have usually been Conservative, some overwhelmingly so. In the most recent elections in May 2021 the Tories amassed, in generally four cornered contests, 64% in Aldbourne & Ramsbury, 68% in Amesbury East & Bulford, 65% in Amesbury South, and also in Amesbury West, 68% in Avon Valley, 69% in Ludgershall North & Rural, 63% in Marlborough West, between 59% and 68% in the three Pewsey Vale wards, 70% in Tidworth East & Ludgershall South, and in a straight fight in Tidworth North & West, 78% against Labour, though on an 18% turnout.
The only places the Tories won with less than 60% were Marlborough East, the part which does not include the school, though even there they led the Liberal Democrats 53% to 24% and Till Valley, where they had held on against the Lib Dems in a March 2020 byelection by only 14 votes – but even here they extended their margin to 495 in May 2021. The single electoral division in the Wiltshire authority section that the Conservatives did not win was Durrington, where they only got 12%. But that was because a very popular incumbent Independent and chair of the local town council received the other 88%. This is no indicator of how Durrington (which includes a second Army town, Larkhill, as well) votes in a general election.
It is true that May 2021 saw the most recent set of local elections in which the Tories did fairly well. We do not know what would have happened if Wiltshire unitary authority had held council contests in 2022 or 2023. In the Swindon Borough section included in East Wiltshire, the small Ridgeway ward has also not been up for election since 2021 (when the Conservatives took 73%) but the Liberal Democrats did gain Wroughton & Wichelstowe in May 2023, while Labour gained the split Chiseldon & Lawn. We also do not have any reliable notional estimates on the new boundaries for a December 2019 election in a hypothetical East Wiltshire, though there is no reason to believe that the Tory majority would have been far off the 24,000 in Devizes.
However everything about the pedigree of this part of Wiltshire, as well as the demographics, suggests that it should be regarded as one of the last redoubts the Conservatives would lose. The Devizes constituency has been held by the Conservatives without a break since 1924, when it was gained from the Liberals by Percy Hurd, father, grandfather (Douglas) and great grandfather (Nick) of Tory MPs. In 2019 the seat, taken over by Danny Kruger following Claire Perry’s retirement, entered another list, that of the safest 30 Conservative constituencies, as they took 63%, a massive 47% ahead of both Liberal Democrats and Labour, scarcely to be separated in second and third places.
Finally, perhaps, a mention for a fictional MP for Devizes. Sir Piers Fletcher-Dervish was the tormented sidekick of the late Rik Mayall’s Alan B’Stard (MP for ‘Haltemprice’) in the TV political satire The New Statesman. Clearly the writers Marks and Gran thought Devizes was such a rock-solid Tory heartland that it could be relied on to elect someone with no ability or charisma at all. Just as with Haltemprice, the real (able and energetic) members that have represented Devizes could be excused for taking offence at such implications. But there is truth there all the same. As Devizes is replaced by East Wiltshire, there may still be plenty of mock battles that take place in the military areas within the constituency, but there is still no real prospect of genuine strife for victory in the foreseeable electoral future.
*I have asked bjornhattan if his figures can confirm this
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 19.0% 366/650
Owner occupied 61.3% 381/575
Private rented 22.7% 151/575
Social rented 15.9% 250/575
White 91.9% 262/575
Black 2.2% 221/575
Asian 2.8% 246/575
Managerial & professional 38.8% 136/575
Routine & Semi-routine 20.4% 405/575
Degree level 33.1% 256/575
No qualifications 13.9% 474/575
Students 5.1% 385/575
General Election 2019: Devizes
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Danny Kruger 32,150 63.1 +0.4
Liberal Democrats Jo Waltham 8,157 16.0 +6.7
Labour Rachael Schneider 7,838 15.4 -5.6
Green Emma Dawnay 2,809 5.5 +2.3
C Majority 23,993 47.1 +5.4
2019 electorate 73,379
Turnout 50,954 69.4 -1.4
Conservative hold
Swing 3.15% Conservative to LD
Boundary Changes
East Wiltshire consists of
63.6% of Devizes
17.8% of Salisbury
15.0% of South Swindon
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-west/South%20West_389_East%20Wiltshire_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
East Wiltshire takes a substantial amount of territory from the South Swindon seat – two full wards of the Swindon unitary authority, Wroughton & Wichelstowe and Ridgeway, and part of another, Chiseldon & Lawn (the more rural, Chiseldon, part). It also includes nearly 18% of the Salisbury constituency, essentially the town of Amesbury and the Till Valley towards its southern end. However, most of East Wiltshire is made up of territory from Devizes; and most (64.5%) of the former Devizes goes into East Wiltshire. Therefore this is the successor to the Devizes seat, not the new Devizes & Melksham. As well as the town of Devizes, among the 35% that departs to join Melksham are Urchfont & Bishops Cannings, Seend, Potterne and the Lavingtons.
It may seem hard to find a unifying theme to East Wiltshire. However, one thing that was notable about Devizes still applies. This is the high proportion employed in the armed services. East Wiltshire covers a substantial portion of the Salisbury Plain, the chalk plateau that has been a prime site for military exercises since 1898. The boundaries almost seem designed to maximise the presence and influence of the British Army. Within East Wiltshire are the communities of Bulford and Durrington (with Larkhill). These are noted for their large Army bases, along with Tidworth. Both of the 2021 census MSOAs including these camps were those with the highest proportion of public administration and defence workers in the whole nation. In Larkhill, Shrewton & Bulford Camp this reached 49.4%, and in Tidworth MSOA 48.5%. These figures are higher even than, say, Catterick Garrison MSOA in North Yorkshire (41.1%) or anywhere in Aldershot, Gosport or any of the usual suspects in East Anglia. It is highly likely that East Wiltshire is the constituency with the highest percentage of defence workers, as Devizes was.*
The analysis of why constituencies vote the way they do lends itself to the generation of statistical lists, as were included in the book form Almanac of British Politics, and subsequently in the Politico’s Guides to the 2015 and 2017 general elections: lists of the most marginal seats and the safest, the largest and smallest electorates, and the demographic characteristics – seats with the most pensioners or students, ethnic percentages, the seats with the highest proportion of agricultural workers, the twenty with the most in the professional and managerial socio-economic groups and the twenty with the highest percentages of manual workers. All of these can be related to voting behaviour and the political tone of the constituencies. One category, however, has not so far been included in my lists: the seats with the highest proportion in the armed service occupations. We can come close to this in the figures relating to “public administration and defence”. In the 2011 national Census, number one out of 633 seats in Britain in this category was Devizes.
Yes, the absolute number so employed in that census was just 10,968 or 21.5% of all workers, but the influence is significant. Not only are dependents and other family members additional to this, but also all the ancillary services and occupations that have a connection with the military in the area. Some of the ‘army camp’ locations are substantial; Tidworth, the largest is home to as many as 10,000 people in all. By tradition defence is one of those political issues that tend to Conservative strength, and although it is also true that the vote of service personnel is by no means monolithic and also tend to a low turnout, the strong military influence is one of the reasons why Devizes was a very safe Tory seat indeed, and why East Wiltshire is expected to be as well..
Of course there are other reasons too. This is a largely rural constituency with a scattering of small towns, none more populous than Amesbury (13,000 in 2021); Wroughton, very much orbiting Swindon, has about 8,000. There is the fertile affluence of the Vale of Pewsey, the town of Pewsey itself having fewer than 4,000 residents. Marlborough (also around 9,000 souls) does also have a well known private school. Stonehenge, of course, though attracting around 850,000 visitors each year and thus generating much controversy about access, does not have a residential population (Avebury, in some ways at least as impressive an ancient monument, is also in the constituency).
Apart from a handful of Independents, all the electoral divisions in the new constituency within the Wiltshire unitary authority (that replaced districts like Kennet from 1 April 2009) have usually been Conservative, some overwhelmingly so. In the most recent elections in May 2021 the Tories amassed, in generally four cornered contests, 64% in Aldbourne & Ramsbury, 68% in Amesbury East & Bulford, 65% in Amesbury South, and also in Amesbury West, 68% in Avon Valley, 69% in Ludgershall North & Rural, 63% in Marlborough West, between 59% and 68% in the three Pewsey Vale wards, 70% in Tidworth East & Ludgershall South, and in a straight fight in Tidworth North & West, 78% against Labour, though on an 18% turnout.
The only places the Tories won with less than 60% were Marlborough East, the part which does not include the school, though even there they led the Liberal Democrats 53% to 24% and Till Valley, where they had held on against the Lib Dems in a March 2020 byelection by only 14 votes – but even here they extended their margin to 495 in May 2021. The single electoral division in the Wiltshire authority section that the Conservatives did not win was Durrington, where they only got 12%. But that was because a very popular incumbent Independent and chair of the local town council received the other 88%. This is no indicator of how Durrington (which includes a second Army town, Larkhill, as well) votes in a general election.
It is true that May 2021 saw the most recent set of local elections in which the Tories did fairly well. We do not know what would have happened if Wiltshire unitary authority had held council contests in 2022 or 2023. In the Swindon Borough section included in East Wiltshire, the small Ridgeway ward has also not been up for election since 2021 (when the Conservatives took 73%) but the Liberal Democrats did gain Wroughton & Wichelstowe in May 2023, while Labour gained the split Chiseldon & Lawn. We also do not have any reliable notional estimates on the new boundaries for a December 2019 election in a hypothetical East Wiltshire, though there is no reason to believe that the Tory majority would have been far off the 24,000 in Devizes.
However everything about the pedigree of this part of Wiltshire, as well as the demographics, suggests that it should be regarded as one of the last redoubts the Conservatives would lose. The Devizes constituency has been held by the Conservatives without a break since 1924, when it was gained from the Liberals by Percy Hurd, father, grandfather (Douglas) and great grandfather (Nick) of Tory MPs. In 2019 the seat, taken over by Danny Kruger following Claire Perry’s retirement, entered another list, that of the safest 30 Conservative constituencies, as they took 63%, a massive 47% ahead of both Liberal Democrats and Labour, scarcely to be separated in second and third places.
Finally, perhaps, a mention for a fictional MP for Devizes. Sir Piers Fletcher-Dervish was the tormented sidekick of the late Rik Mayall’s Alan B’Stard (MP for ‘Haltemprice’) in the TV political satire The New Statesman. Clearly the writers Marks and Gran thought Devizes was such a rock-solid Tory heartland that it could be relied on to elect someone with no ability or charisma at all. Just as with Haltemprice, the real (able and energetic) members that have represented Devizes could be excused for taking offence at such implications. But there is truth there all the same. As Devizes is replaced by East Wiltshire, there may still be plenty of mock battles that take place in the military areas within the constituency, but there is still no real prospect of genuine strife for victory in the foreseeable electoral future.
*I have asked bjornhattan if his figures can confirm this
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 19.0% 366/650
Owner occupied 61.3% 381/575
Private rented 22.7% 151/575
Social rented 15.9% 250/575
White 91.9% 262/575
Black 2.2% 221/575
Asian 2.8% 246/575
Managerial & professional 38.8% 136/575
Routine & Semi-routine 20.4% 405/575
Degree level 33.1% 256/575
No qualifications 13.9% 474/575
Students 5.1% 385/575
General Election 2019: Devizes
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Danny Kruger 32,150 63.1 +0.4
Liberal Democrats Jo Waltham 8,157 16.0 +6.7
Labour Rachael Schneider 7,838 15.4 -5.6
Green Emma Dawnay 2,809 5.5 +2.3
C Majority 23,993 47.1 +5.4
2019 electorate 73,379
Turnout 50,954 69.4 -1.4
Conservative hold
Swing 3.15% Conservative to LD
Boundary Changes
East Wiltshire consists of
63.6% of Devizes
17.8% of Salisbury
15.0% of South Swindon
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-west/South%20West_389_East%20Wiltshire_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 32301 | 65.9% |
| Lab | 7778 | 15.9% |
| LD | 7100 | 14.5% |
| Green | 1809 | 3.7% |
| C Majority | 24523 | 50.1% |
