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Post by BossMan on Aug 11, 2023 18:13:59 GMT
Incumbent- Rupert Matthews, Conservative.
Formerly a professor at the International Metaphysical University, and MEP.
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,280
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Post by andrea on Aug 14, 2023 14:22:04 GMT
Labour candidate is former MEP Rory Palmer.
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Post by carolus on Aug 18, 2023 20:55:22 GMT
2021:
Con - 121,252 (49.3%) Lab - 81,898 (33.3%) LD - 42,951 (17.5%)
Second Round: Con 135,566 (57.0%) Lab 102,211 (43.0%)
In 2016 this was a Lab win over Con by 13.8% in the first round and 14.6% in the second. In 2012 this was a Con win over Lab by 14.0% in the first round and 11.0% in the second.
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Post by carolus on Apr 5, 2024 15:19:34 GMT
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Post by listener on Apr 22, 2024 22:54:36 GMT
LEICESTERSHIRE RESULT 2021
2021 PARO – North West Leicestershire
Overall result (First Stage) (total valid ballots 246,101)
Conservatives ahead in all districts, except Leicester (Lab)
Con 121,252 – 49.3% Lab 81,898 – 33.3% Lib Dem 42,951 – 17.5%
Leicester (total valid ballots 63,843)
Con 20,422 – 32.0% Lab 37,499 – 58.7% Lib Dem 5,922 – 9.3%
Rutland (total valid ballots 7,750)
Con 4,597 – 59.3% Lab 1,278 – 16.5% Lib Dem 1,875 – 24.2%
Blaby (total valid ballots 22,937)
Con 13,197 – 57.5% Lab 5,764 – 25.1% Lib Dem 3,976 – 17.3%
Charnwood (total valid ballots 41,646)
Con 22,723 – 54.6% Lab 12,808 – 30.8% Lib Dem 6,115 – 14.7%
Harborough (total valid ballots 26,773)
Con 15,189 – 56.7% Lab 5,347 – 20.0% Lib Dem 6,237 – 23.3%
Hinckley and Bosworth (total valid ballots 28,838)
Con 15,693 – 54.4% Lab 4,825 – 16.7% Lib Dem 8,320 – 28.9%
Melton (total valid ballots 13,095)
Con 8,213 – 62.7% Lab 2,840 – 21.7% Lib Dem 2,042 – 15.6%
North West Leicestershire (total valid ballots 27,301)
Con 15,252 – 55.9% Lab 8,305 – 30.4% Lib Dem 3,744 – 13.7%
Oadby and Wigston (total valid ballots 13,918)
Con 5,966 – 42.9% Lab 3,232 – 23.2% Lib Dem 4,720 – 33.9%
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Post by Robert Waller on May 3, 2024 14:53:12 GMT
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Inactivist
Posts: 5,551
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Post by Foggy on May 3, 2024 20:05:37 GMT
The biggest example yet of the switch from SV to FPTP having the desired effect?
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pl
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,568
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Post by pl on May 3, 2024 20:22:55 GMT
The biggest example yet of the switch from SV to FPTP having the desired effect? There was no desired effect. It was simply removing the Labour gerrymander of the electoral system that introduced the SV system that they thought would cement a "progressive majority".
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,165
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Post by polupolu on May 3, 2024 20:26:13 GMT
The biggest example yet of the switch from SV to FPTP having the desired effect? There was no desired effect. It was simply removing the Labour gerrymander of the electoral system that introduced the SV system that they thought would cement a "progressive majority". And to allow in a regressive minority?
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Inactivist
Posts: 5,551
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Post by Foggy on May 3, 2024 20:28:02 GMT
The biggest example yet of the switch from SV to FPTP having the desired effect? There was no desired effect. It was simply removing the Labour gerrymander of the electoral system that introduced the SV system that they thought would cement a "progressive majority". Well, mayors were introduced under Labour, yes, but the Tories brought in Police Commissioners and had no problem with SV to start with... until a strategist saw the writing on the wall and got the MP for NE Hampshire to make a fuss with a Private Members' Bill which eventually became government policy years later. Anyway, the old system wasn't even a particularly good preferential voting method (policing areas cover one or more counties where the anti-Tory vote can split more than two ways, so not much use if you're looking to game the system), and it certainly doesn't fit the original meaning of "gerrymander" which only referred to fixing boundaries in one's favour.
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Post by mattbewilson on May 5, 2024 12:52:55 GMT
Willy Bach who was the Labour PCC shared a post about the labour vote in Leicester. It was 36% of the vote which is down from 58% in 2021 and 70% in 2016.
Greens appeared to poll well on 22%
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on May 5, 2024 13:28:51 GMT
Willy Bach who was the Labour PCC shared a post about the labour vote in Leicester. It was 36% of the vote which is down from 58% in 2021 and 70% in 2016. Greens appeared to poll well on 22% It would be interesting to know how Labour are polling outside of the city boundary. Presumably reasonably well given how close they came to winning which augers well for at least a couple of the county seats
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Post by nw12398 on May 5, 2024 13:36:11 GMT
The biggest example yet of the switch from SV to FPTP having the desired effect? There was no desired effect. It was simply removing the Labour gerrymander of the electoral system that introduced the SV system that they thought would cement a "progressive majority". Your second sentence contradicts your first. Zero marks
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,280
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Post by andrea on May 5, 2024 13:38:32 GMT
Willy Bach who was the Labour PCC shared a post about the labour vote in Leicester. It was 36% of the vote which is down from 58% in 2021 and 70% in 2016. Greens appeared to poll well on 22% It would be interesting to know how Labour are polling outside of the city boundary. Presumably reasonably well given how close they came to winning which augers well for at least a couple of the county seats Rutland Fizza Askari, One Leicester – 57 Aasiya Bora, Green Party – 369 Rupert Oliver Matthews, Conservative Party – 2,701 Rory Palmer, Labour And Co-Operative Party – 1,441 Ian Robert Sharpe, Liberal Democrats – 926 Blaby Fizza Askari, One Leicester – 262 Aasiya Bora, Green Party – 963 Rupert Oliver Matthews, Conservative Party – 5179 Rory Palmer, Labour And Co-Operative Party – 4241 Ian Robert Sharpe, Liberal Democrats – 2032 Harborough Fizza Askari, One Leicester – 238 Aasiya Bora, Green Party – 1180 Rupert Oliver Matthews, Conservative Party – 7121 Rory Palmer, Labour And Co-Operative Party – 5049 Ian Robert Sharpe, Liberal Democrats – 2840 Hinckley & Bosworth Fizza Askari, One Leicester – 211 Aasiya Bora, Green Party – 921 Rupert Oliver Matthews, Conservative Party – 6373 Rory Palmer, Labour And Co-Operative Party – 3971 Ian Robert Sharpe, Liberal Democrats – 5877 Charnwood Fizza Askari, One Leicester – 565 Aasiya Bora, Green Party – 2953 Rupert Oliver Matthews, Conservative Party – 11477 Rory Palmer, Labour And Co-Operative Party – 10585 Ian Robert Sharpe, Liberal Democrats – 2869 North West Leicestershire Fizza Askari, One Leicester – 226 Aasiya Bora, Green Party – 964 Rupert Oliver Matthews, Conservative Party – 5745 Rory Palmer, Labour And Co-Operative Party – 6465 Ian Robert Sharpe, Liberal Democrats – 1804 Oadby & Wigston Fizza Askari, One Leicester – 442 Aasiya Bora, Green Party – 1076 Rupert Oliver Matthews, Conservative Party – 3185 Rory Palmer, Labour And Co-Operative Party – 2853 Ian Robert Sharpe, Liberal Democrats – 1803 Melton Fizza Askari, One Leicester –121 Aasiya Bora, Green Party – 614 Rupert Oliver Matthews, Conservative Party – 3312 Rory Palmer, Labour And Co-Operative Party – 2422 Ian Robert Sharpe, Liberal Democrats – 857 Leicester Fizza Askari, One Leicester – 4982 Aasiya Bora, Green Party – 14609 Rupert Oliver Matthews, Conservative Party – 17187 Rory Palmer, Labour And Co-Operative Party – 24393 Ian Robert Sharpe, Liberal Democrats – 3033
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r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 874
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Post by r34t on May 5, 2024 13:41:20 GMT
The biggest example yet of the switch from SV to FPTP having the desired effect? There was no desired effect. It was simply removing the Labour gerrymander of the electoral system that introduced the SV system that they thought would cement a "progressive majority". Which is why the Tories made the London Assembly FPTP as well ...... err .....
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Post by matureleft on May 5, 2024 13:48:05 GMT
It would be interesting to know how Labour are polling outside of the city boundary. Presumably reasonably well given how close they came to winning which augers well for at least a couple of the county seats Rutland Fizza Askari, One Leicester – 57 Aasiya Bora, Green Party – 369 Rupert Oliver Matthews, Conservative Party – 2,701 Rory Palmer, Labour And Co-Operative Party – 1,441 Ian Robert Sharpe, Liberal Democrats – 926 Blaby Fizza Askari, One Leicester – 262 Aasiya Bora, Green Party – 963 Rupert Oliver Matthews, Conservative Party – 5179 Rory Palmer, Labour And Co-Operative Party – 4241 Ian Robert Sharpe, Liberal Democrats – 2032 Harborough Fizza Askari, One Leicester – 238 Aasiya Bora, Green Party – 1180 Rupert Oliver Matthews, Conservative Party – 7121 Rory Palmer, Labour And Co-Operative Party – 5049 Ian Robert Sharpe, Liberal Democrats – 2840 Hinckley & Bosworth Fizza Askari, One Leicester – 211 Aasiya Bora, Green Party – 921 Rupert Oliver Matthews, Conservative Party – 6373 Rory Palmer, Labour And Co-Operative Party – 3971 Ian Robert Sharpe, Liberal Democrats – 5877 Charnwood Fizza Askari, One Leicester – 565 Aasiya Bora, Green Party – 2953 Rupert Oliver Matthews, Conservative Party – 11477 Rory Palmer, Labour And Co-Operative Party – 10585 Ian Robert Sharpe, Liberal Democrats – 2869 North West Leicestershire Fizza Askari, One Leicester – 226 Aasiya Bora, Green Party – 964 Rupert Oliver Matthews, Conservative Party – 5745 Rory Palmer, Labour And Co-Operative Party – 6465 Ian Robert Sharpe, Liberal Democrats – 1804 Oadby & Wigston Fizza Askari, One Leicester – 442 Aasiya Bora, Green Party – 1076 Rupert Oliver Matthews, Conservative Party – 3185 Rory Palmer, Labour And Co-Operative Party – 2853 Ian Robert Sharpe, Liberal Democrats – 1803 Melton Fizza Askari, One Leicester –121 Aasiya Bora, Green Party – 614 Rupert Oliver Matthews, Conservative Party – 3312 Rory Palmer, Labour And Co-Operative Party – 2422 Ian Robert Sharpe, Liberal Democrats – 857 Leicester Fizza Askari, One Leicester – 4982 Aasiya Bora, Green Party – 14609 Rupert Oliver Matthews, Conservative Party – 17187 Rory Palmer, Labour And Co-Operative Party – 24393 Ian Robert Sharpe, Liberal Democrats – 3033 As I suspected Labour carried NW Leicestershire. The constituency omits two Tory wards so the gap would have been rather larger than at the district level. On the same day a by-election was held in Snibston South with the Tories not fielding a candidate. I’d imagine that Bridgen’s behaviour has pretty severely damaged the party here.
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,600
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Post by Rural Radical on May 5, 2024 17:34:40 GMT
Rutland Fizza Askari, One Leicester – 57 Aasiya Bora, Green Party – 369 Rupert Oliver Matthews, Conservative Party – 2,701 Rory Palmer, Labour And Co-Operative Party – 1,441 Ian Robert Sharpe, Liberal Democrats – 926 Blaby Fizza Askari, One Leicester – 262 Aasiya Bora, Green Party – 963 Rupert Oliver Matthews, Conservative Party – 5179 Rory Palmer, Labour And Co-Operative Party – 4241 Ian Robert Sharpe, Liberal Democrats – 2032 Harborough Fizza Askari, One Leicester – 238 Aasiya Bora, Green Party – 1180 Rupert Oliver Matthews, Conservative Party – 7121 Rory Palmer, Labour And Co-Operative Party – 5049 Ian Robert Sharpe, Liberal Democrats – 2840 Hinckley & Bosworth Fizza Askari, One Leicester – 211 Aasiya Bora, Green Party – 921 Rupert Oliver Matthews, Conservative Party – 6373 Rory Palmer, Labour And Co-Operative Party – 3971 Ian Robert Sharpe, Liberal Democrats – 5877 Charnwood Fizza Askari, One Leicester – 565 Aasiya Bora, Green Party – 2953 Rupert Oliver Matthews, Conservative Party – 11477 Rory Palmer, Labour And Co-Operative Party – 10585 Ian Robert Sharpe, Liberal Democrats – 2869 North West Leicestershire Fizza Askari, One Leicester – 226 Aasiya Bora, Green Party – 964 Rupert Oliver Matthews, Conservative Party – 5745 Rory Palmer, Labour And Co-Operative Party – 6465 Ian Robert Sharpe, Liberal Democrats – 1804 Oadby & Wigston Fizza Askari, One Leicester – 442 Aasiya Bora, Green Party – 1076 Rupert Oliver Matthews, Conservative Party – 3185 Rory Palmer, Labour And Co-Operative Party – 2853 Ian Robert Sharpe, Liberal Democrats – 1803 Melton Fizza Askari, One Leicester –121 Aasiya Bora, Green Party – 614 Rupert Oliver Matthews, Conservative Party – 3312 Rory Palmer, Labour And Co-Operative Party – 2422 Ian Robert Sharpe, Liberal Democrats – 857 Leicester Fizza Askari, One Leicester – 4982 Aasiya Bora, Green Party – 14609 Rupert Oliver Matthews, Conservative Party – 17187 Rory Palmer, Labour And Co-Operative Party – 24393 Ian Robert Sharpe, Liberal Democrats – 3033 As I suspected Labour carried NW Leicestershire. The constituency omits two Tory wards so the gap would have been rather larger than at the district level. On the same day a by-election was held in Snibston South with the Tories not fielding a candidate. I’d imagine that Bridgen’s behaviour has pretty severely damaged the party here. I would guess Labour won Loughborough as well.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 12, 2024 15:38:28 GMT
In 2021 (with only 3 candidates) 80.6% of LD votes transferred and Labour won those 58.7%-41.3%. Plugging those figures in lets you guesstimate a 2024 SV results as follows:
Lab 61420 + 24978 = 86398 (52%) Con 62280 + 17574 = 79854 (48%)
With five candidates, I think the actual transfer rate would have been much lower than that. The margin is less clear, as in some places the Gaza effect clearly encouraged an anybody-but-Labour strategy but on the other hand we're clearly more transfer-friendly than in 2021. But in practical terms the FPTP result was close enough that there's no realistic doubt that SV would have changed the outcome.
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